<$BlogRSDURL$>

Monday, April 05, 2004

ANOTHER PREVIEW
Robert Dudek at the Hardball Times has his 5 Questions up for the Angels today. Unlike other stathead previews, this one does not revel in the doom and gloom for the upcoming season.

As I spent some time on the pitching last week, let's focus on Dudek's second question, made in reference to last season: What happened to the offense?

Dudek has an interesting revelation. Using his reformulation of David Smyth's Base Runs, Dudek concludes that the Angels regulars, as a whole, produced equally well per plate appearance in 2003 as in 2002. In 2002, Angel regulars produced .134 runs per plate appearance, in in 2003 they produced .131. The shape was different: Molina improved, Eckstein declined, etc., but the end result was about the same.

The problem, of course, was that the regulars had far fewer plate appearances. In 2002, the regulars accounted for, by this system, 712.8 runs. Last year? 553.3.

That's a difference of 160 runs! This confirms what we already knew, just watching the Angels every day last year: it was the injuries that gutted the offense. Dudek's numbers also have the Angel back-ups as performing about as well, dropping to a .091 BR/PA from .096; in estimates like this, I consider that equal.

This is good news to us Angel fans; it tells us that as long as our regulars, as a group, perform as they have the last two years, and stay healthy, we should score a lot more runs.

However, we have replaced Brad Fullmer with Vlad and Spiezio with Jose Guillen. What impact does that have?

First of all, let's see what we might expect from the remaining regulars. The following represents each player, the average of his plate appearances over the past two seasons, his weighted Base Runs Per Plate Appearance over the last two seasons, and the product of those two (again, apologies for the formatting):

Player PA BR/PA BR
Anderson 676 0.155 104.7
Salmon 595 0.162 96.4
Glaus 519 0.142 73.7
Eckstein 610 0.115 69.9
Kennedy 510 0.132 67.5
Erstad 474 0.103 48.6
B.Molina 445 0.082 36.3
TOTAL RUNS: 497.1

We can already see where the Angels could easily outperform this: if Glaus stays healthy, if Erstad regains his stroke with the move to first, if Eckstein bounces back after injuries limited him last season, etc. Of course, any such improvement may be matched by a decline from Molina, or Garret Anderson snapping back to pre-2002 form, or any other number of calamities.

Here are the numbers for the two new guys over the last two years:

Player PA BR/PA BR
Guerrero 588 0.180 105.8
Guillen 401 0.137 55.0
TOTAL RUNS: 160.8

Again, perhaps a conservative figure, skewed by Vlad's back injury last year, but possibly tilted up by Guillen's career year last season. Still, this is about a 25-run improvement over the Fullmer/Spiezio combo.

Running the same analysis on "Others" gives us an estimate of 135.8 runs coming from the bench.

So, to summarize:

497.1 runs from returning regulars + 160.8 runs from new regulars + 135.8 runs from the bench =
793.7 runs.

Over the last two seasons, the Angels have averaged 793.5 runs. So did I just waste my (and your) time? No; the personnel is different, and the outcome was uncertain. My first entry was a preview of the Angel offense, and in it I (optimistically) concluded that the Angels would score 820 runs; that's very easily in reach.

Let's be conservative, and stick with the 793.7 figure, and just round it off to 795. Late last week, I said the Angel starters might be expected to be 50 runs better than last year. I suspect that the bullpen will be about the same; last year the Angels allowed 743 runs, so 50 from that is 693. Let's go ahead and round that off to 695. 795 runs scored against 693 runs allowed would lead to a winning percentage of .567 and a record of 92-70.

A lot of statheads that I respect (see BPro and Diamond Mind) see the Angels as a disappointment this year, but I just don't see it. In trying to look at the team objectively and systematically, I come to a conclusion a monkey could make: the Angels are not as good as they were in 2002, but not as bad as they were in 2003; the truth is pretty much in the middle.

Bill Stoneman has assembled a team that, if the players perform at the levels they have recently established, will be highly competitive in a tough division. What more can you ask for? Sure, the bench doesn't look that great, and a plauge of injuries could cause a collapse similar to last year's. But there is every reason for optimism at the Big A this year.

Of course, if you're reading this, I probably didn't have to tell you that.

Comments:
視訊做愛視訊美女無碼A片情色影劇aa免費看貓咪論壇彩虹性愛巴士金瓶梅影片交流yam視訊交友xxx383美女寫真kyo成人動漫tt1069同志交友網ut同志交友網微風成人論壇6k聊天室日本 avdvd 介紹免費觀賞av168成人UT視訊美女交友自拍密錄館sex888情人輔助品哈啦聊天室豆豆出租名模情人視訊視訊交友網視訊交友90739影片 圖片av168成人嘟嘟情色色網免費A片下載情人視訊網d760免費視訊 自拍日本A片免費下載 金瓶梅影片交流免費A片下載85cc免費影城85cc日本a片情色a片無碼女優 免費色情電影同志聊天室38ga成人無碼a片小魔女免費影片玩美女人影音秀台灣18成人網18禁成人網聊天室ut歐美嘟嘟情人色網影片18禁地少女遊戲a383禁地論壇成人影城18禁av影片無碼線上LIVE免費成人影片sex女優松島楓免費影片咆哮小老鼠論壇色咪咪情色網 視訊熱舞秀ut台中聊天室貓貓論壇豆豆情色風暴視訊xxx383美女寫真? 線上漫畫免費線上a片無碼dvdxvediox日本美女寫真集免費成人電影小魔女自拍天堂av1688影音娛樂網0204movie免費影片咆哮小老鼠論壇85cc免費影城85ccfoxy免費音樂下載免費視訊免費影片成人影城免費a網 免費視訊辣妹彩虹頻道免費短片av1688天使娛樂網辣妹妹影音視訊聊天室視訊網愛聊天室後宮電影電影院蜜雪兒免費小說洪爺情色論壇sexy girl video movie視訊交友90739無碼dvd維納斯成人用品辣妹貼圖a片天堂月光論壇sexy girls get fucked中國性愛城sex520-卡通影片383movie成人影城ut正妹 聊天室倉井空免費a影片伊莉論壇tw 18 net18禁成人網免費性愛影片影音視訊聊天室av168成人視訊交友視訊美女視訊交友
 




شركة التفاؤل شركة نقل عفش بالدمام تقوم بعمل خطة متكاملة لـ نقل عفش بالدمام حيث تقوم بتجزئة عملية نقل العفش الى عدة خطوات كل منها مكملة للاخر لضمان السلامة التامة لكل المنقولات والممتلكات .
تتميز شركة التفاؤل شركة نقل اثاث بالدمام بفريق عمل متخصص ومميز يقوم بخدمات نقل العفش باعلى مستوى من الجودة والاتقان.
اقوى الخدمات بافضل الاسعار مع التفاؤل لـ نقل اثاث بالدمام
لا تقتصر خدمات شركة التفاؤل فى منطقة الدمام فحسب ولكن ايضا فى :

نقل اثاث
نقل الاثاث


شركة نقل اثاث بالدمام

شركة نقل اثاث بالقطيف

شركة نقل اثاث بالخبر

شركة نقل اثاث بالجبيل




 
شركة مكافحة حشرات بالجبيل
توفر الشركة مجموعة من أقوي أجهزة مكافحة الحشرات ورش المبيدات للقضاء علي جميع الحشرات الموجودة بالمكان دون الحاجة إلي إخلاء المكان بالكامل وذلك لجودة الأدوات المستخدمة فالشركة تحاول دائما توفير مجموعة كبيرة من الأجهزة الخاصة والحديثة التي يمكنها الوصول لأصعب الأماكن المصابة بالحشرات الضيقة بكل سهولة


شركة رش مبيدات بالجبيل
شركة مكافحة الحمام بالجبيل
شركة مكافحة الفئران بالجبيل
شركة مكافحة صراصير بالجبيل
شركة مكافحة بق الفراش بالجبيل
شركة مكافحة الفئران بالجبيل
شركة مكافحة بق الفراش بالجبيل

 
شركة المثالي صقور لتنظيف الشقق والمنازل بالجبيل 0505565030

شركة المثالي صقور للخدمات بالجبيل
تحمل شركة المثالي صقور تاريخ عريض في مجال الخدمات بشكل عام سواء كان خاص بالتنظيف أو المكافحة أو نقل الأثاث وذلك لأن الشركة تحرص بشكل دائم علي توفير كافة الأجهزة الحديثة المتطورة التي تستخدم في عملية التنظيف وكذلك أفضل المبيدات الحشرية المناسبة للقضاء التام علي جميع الحشرات الموجودة بالمكان وكل ذلك حرصا منها علي مستوي الخدمة المقدم للعميل من قبل الشركة


شركة تنظيف بالجبيل
شركة تنظيف شقق بالجبيل
شركة تنظيف منازل بالجبيل
شركة تنظيف فلل بالجبيل
شركة تنظيف سجاد بالجبيل
شركة تنظيف كنب بالجبيل
شركة تنظيف مجالس بالجبيل
شركة مكافحة حشرات بالجبيل
شركة تنظيف بالبخار بالجبيل
 

مؤسسة البناء و التشييد تمديدات غاز غاز مركزي تشطيبات .خدماتنا ايضا اختبار تسربات غاز طلب خزان غاز الرياض
 
Post a Comment

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?