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Tuesday, April 05, 2005

I PREDICT
Last season, I made two predictions for the Angel final record. My initial prediction was 96-66, but later I used some systematic analysis and revised that to 92-70.

You may have noted that the Angels were indeed 92-70 last season, and you may wonder how I devised such an accurate prediction.

The answer: dumb luck.

In that vein, I predict the following for 2005:

95-67.

I see it breaking down like this:

The offense will be about the same.

The rotation will pick up about four wins: 20 runs from Colon, 10 from Lackey, and 10 from Washburn and Byrd offsetting a very slight decline from Escobar. I'm including defensive improvement here.

The bullpen and its decreased depth will give back a win, so that gives us three more wins than a year ago.

95-67.

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