Tuesday, February 28, 2006

Thanks to Jim Scully in my comments section for bringing to my attention that we have traded Alberto Callaspo for Jason Bulger.

I am certain that you, like me, have no idea from that of what team Callaspo now plays for. The answer is the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Here's what Baseball America's Jim Callis says of Bulger in the above-linked article:
Bulger, 27, was a 2001 first-round pick out of Valdosta State (Ga.), where he was primarily an infielder for the first three years of his college career. ...
Jason struggled as a starter in his first two pro seasons and had Tommy John surgery in 2003, but has moved quickly as a reliever since returning. He made his major league debut in late 2005, going 1-0, 5.40 in nine games. He spent most of the year at Triple-A Tucson, going 3-6, 3.54 with four saves in 56 outings. He had a 55-27 K-BB ratio in 56 innings, while opponents hit .244 with three homers against him. Buldger throws hard, sitting at 93-96 mph and reaching 98 with his sinker. His curveball shows signs of being a good second pitch, but he needs to refine his command and resist the temptation to throw harder when he gets in jams. He has a career 10-21, 4.28 record with 23 saves in 127 minor league games. [emphasis mine]
My initial reaction was: Really? That's it? Is that as low as Callaspo's stock is?

But reading about Bulger there, he seems like the kind of guy the Angels like to turn into middle relief deities. So I don't know. It never occurred to me that we had to be in a rush to dump Callaspo, what with his utility infielder possibilities, but maybe the Angel minor league scouts have come upon something here. Time will tell.

A lot of speculative stuff going on, so let's just link and comment:

- One of the more intriguing spring storylines is where all of our prospects will start 2006. I had pretty much assumed Alberto Callaspo and Erick Aybar would be the DP combo in AAA, with Howie Kendrick and Brandon Wood managang the keystone at AA.

However, this article on the Angel site (this and a few other articles mentioned here were first linked by Rob) indicates that Kendrick may start the season at AAA, along with Aybar, likely shifting Callaspo to third base (where he played some this winter and has started to take groundballs this spring).

Callaspo has always been the odd man out in these discussions, and it oft considered the guy who will become the next utility infielder, so this fits in with expectations.

I think it's a good move to start Kendrick in AAA. He tore up AA offensively in his time there last season, and he's on schedule to take over the major league job in 2007, so you might as well put him in the PCL this year. The only question on him right now is his defense, at which he's been working hard. And as long as we have Alfredo Griffin around, who turned David Eckstein into a shortstop and Adam Kennedy into a premier defensive second baseman, I don't worry about the gloves of Halo infield prospects.

Of course, another big question in the future of the Angel infield is what will become of Brandon Wood. Considered a catch-and-throw guy when drafted, his projectable body led many to believe he would develop power and outgrow the position. The first has happened, but it does not appear that the second one has as yet. Buried at the bottom of this article (which I believe was linked by a commenter over at Halos Heaven), Mike Scioscia is quoted as comparing Brandon to Cal Ripken, Jr. -- but not as a hitter, as a defender: "He is like Ripken," Mike says. "He is always in the right spot."

Ripken, of course, established that huge guys could still play good defense at short, so it's certainly possible that Wood will be able to stay at the position. But it's also possible that he will continue to put on weight, lose some range, and find himself at third base. This could also happen if Erick Aybar gets a chance to establish himself at short. Which is what I would guess Dallas McPherson is hoping for, after his rash clears up.

- This was brought up in a speculative fashion last season, but Frankie K. is toying with the idea of introducing a change-up to his repertoire. I don't think he needs one, though obviously if he can master one, that would be great, and it's good that he's always striving to improve.

Per the article, Frankie says, "I've got to bring my walks down, get ahead in counts, I've got to clean up all those little details that caused trouble last year." I concur, but then I noticed something in the article ... he blew only five saves last season. Maybe that's a lot, but four of the five saves were of the Tough Save variety, where he was asked to defend a one-run lead. And three of the five came when Frankie was pitching for the third consecutive day, pretty much a recipe for disaster.

I do think he can improve by having some more consistency in his mechanics. This can be partially achieved by not pitching him too many days in a row, and partially achieved by his having better focus and concentration. K-Rod's an emotional pitcher, and when he struggles he begins to press, trying to overthrow the ball, which leads to wild mechanics and bad pitches. As such, bad pitching begets bad pitching. He needs to work on that.

But he's pretty good the way he is, so I won't complain too much.

For now.

- Intersting little article on plate discipline at the Hardball Times. Did you know that, last season, for every 80 pitches Vlad Guerrero was thrown in the strike zone, he was thrown 100 out of the strike zone? That ratio was the lowest out of any qualifying batter last season.

Well, you probably did know that, or at least would have guessed it. Vlad was often pitched around, and of course he swings at nearly anything, so you don't have to throw him a strike.

The fifth-highest in this regard was our old friend David Eckstein, who was thrown 1.46 strikes to every ball. David used to draw a lot of walks in the minors, reaching via base on balls in 14% of his non-sacrifice-bunt plate appearances. But in the majors his walk rate has dropped to 7% (David's major and minor league stats). And this illustrates why: pitchers throw him more strikes, most likely because of his lack of power means he's not really going to hurt them when he makes contact. If you threw Vlad 1.46 strikes to every ball, you'd be in bigtime trouble.

That's something important to remember in looking at prospects, or even major league players. It's easy for analysts to sit back and say, "This guy needs to walk more," and sometimes that's true, but sometimes guys might be drawing as many walks as they're able based on the pitches they see.

- Not that anyone connected to him will read this, but my sympathies go out to Vlad on his recent losses.

Wednesday, February 22, 2006

- The LA Times has a nice little puff piece on Jeff Mathis today. Hard worker, good kid, big shoes, and so forth.

- Also in the Times, Orlando Cabrera spills on how badly Manny Ramirez wants to be a Halo. Apparently Boston owner John Henry even called up Arte to try to get things going. Why they would do this instead of actually making a real offer to the Angels is a bit of a mystery, and the only conclusion that makes sense to me is that Boston has zero interest in trading Manny, but are now able to tell him that they tried. I don't know what sort of insight Manny has into the Angel farm system, but I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't realize that he's not worth a couple of major leaguers in addition to Howie Kendrick and Brandon Wood.

- Darin Erstad, however, is acutely aware. Amidst speculation that Wood's locker was placed between Ersty's and Vlad's to give the youngin' a lesson in being a professional, The Punter counters, "Everyone's got it backwards — they want him to rub off on me. They want me to hit some home runs."

- Speaking of Kendrick and Wood, Baseball Prospectus has released their Top 50 Prospects list, and we've got Angels galore therein. Kendrick at 5, Wood at number 6, Kendry at 26, Weaver the Younger at 35, and Erick Aybar at 50.

- OC Register writer Mark Saxon is keeping a Spring Training blog. His most recent entry observes that Kendry Morales appears to have no defensive talent whatsoever, and that his future is as a designated hitter. Some have thought he might bash his way into the mix this season, but some comments from Mike Scioscia a few days ago indicate that Kendry still has some learning to do, and will likely start the season at AAA. Of course, with some seasoning from him and some injuries to some others, he might have an opportunity to make an impact in Angel Stadium later this season.

Well, after the excitement of pitchers and catchers reporting, we have to admit the fact that nothing has happened in the last seven days. To sum up:

- Jered Weaver got so drunk -- How drunk was he? -- Jered Weaver was so drunk that he was unable to be around others.

I need to contract the police of the LBC to follow me and my crew around some weekend night. My friends frequently are unable to be around others, and the long arm of John Law might add some decorum to the proceedings. I, for one, am glad we have police forces to keep drunken twenty-three-year-olds away from others when they need to be.

- Ervin Santana can't pitch in the World Baseball Classic. But then he can. But he won't.

We still don't know about Bartolo or Kelvim. Actually, I think the only guy we know for sure is going is Scot Shields.

Look, I'll watch the WBC games when they're on in my time zone, because it's baseball and I'm just dying for the games to start, but I don't care who wins. I just have no motivation to cheer for the US team. I mean, there are a few guys on the team I like ... Shieldsy, of course ... Chase Utley. And, um ... well ... yeah. Go America!

I don't know how well the US team is going to do in this thing, because I don't think the US team is going to care as much as some of the other teams. I get the impression from some of the comments of players in involved from the Latin countries that they think it's a big thing, a big honor, and that they're excited about representing their countries. I'm just not hearing that from the US team, so I don't know.

I might have to adopt a country by the time the games roll around. We'll see which country ends up with the most Halos on their squad.

Wednesday, February 15, 2006

And Halofan can exhale ...

... great deal, it looks to me. One year, $8.5M. A bit more than he's worth, money-wise, but most starting pitchers are overpaid, so in the scheme of things that's pretty good. The best part is that it's only for one year. Well done.

Today pitchers and catchers report to the Angel camp in Arizona, which means that actual ballplayers, as you read this, are preparing to entertain us for the next seven or eight months.

Though little actual news comes out of these initial workouts, it excites me nonetheless. I have been jonesing for actual baseball action of late, and Spring Training should make the next month-and-a-half more palatable.

The Angels are greeted at camp with this downer article in the Times from Mike DiGiovanna. It's all about how the Angels haven't signed anyone, so we should be not as good, and blah blah blah ...

... I haven't done my prediction for the Angels yet this year, as I normally work through it on the eve of Opening Day, but I do suspect I'll end up predicting them to have less wins this year than last. But that's mostly because I expect the starting rotation, as a whole, to regress a bit this season (the beginning of Spring Training now allows me to refer to 2006 as "this season" instead of "next season" or "this coming season", which is also a nice feeling). DiGiovanna focuses his pessimism, for the most part, on the offense.

"[T]his is essentially the same offense — minus catcher Bengie Molina, one of the team's top clutch hitters — that hit .175 with a .200 on-base percentage in a five-game AL championship series loss, and ranked 10th in the league in home runs and ninth in slugging percentage and on-base percentage last season," reports DiGiovanna.

But is it really the same offense? The substitution of Casey Kotchman for Steve Finley seems to be underappreciated. Finley last season was roughly -15 against average offensively. Casey Kotchman doesn't even have to be that great to be a drastic improvement on that "performance." He was around +5 runs offensively last year, and he only played one-fourth of a season. Even if he's only +5 in a full year in 2006, which would mean he would be only about a fourth as productive per plate appearance, that's a two-win gain from the offense. And while I don't know that Kotch is going to hit as well over a full year as he did in limited time last year, I don't think expecting him to be in the +5 to +10 range is unreasonable.

And though DiGiovanna doesn't address it, the defense has also been markedly improved. Finley's defense last season was likely in the -10 range; Darin Erstad, even if he's not as good as he used to be out there (which remains to be seen), should be a marked improvement on that.

What the Finley/Kotchman/Erstad tango really does is take a player that was -25 runs against average last year and replace him with one that should be at least +10 this year (conservatively estimating +5 from Kotch's offense and +5 from Darin's defense). That's a three-and-a-half win improvement just from that switch, as long as everyone stays healthy and performs up to reasonable expectations. Of course, if Darin stays healthy and can still be a plus plus defender in center, and if Kotchman develops just a little, the improvement can be larger.

(Note also that I'm not really expecting any defensive drop at first from Erstad to Kotchman. Kotchman has a great rep with the glove and has looked good while playing there in the majors, so I think that's fair.)

So whether or not we see an improvement from our position players really comes down to the catchers. Bengie was around +5 offensively last year, so Jose and Mathis need to manage to be better than -40 runs between them so as not to negate the Kotchman/Finley improvement (I'm just pegging Bengie as a wash defensively, which is probably a bit generous, but I'm trying to be tough on the 2006 team here).

Jose has been consistent on offense the last two years, being in the -7 or -8 range. If he maintains that level of ability, and has more playing time, he'll be a tiny bit "worse", in that he'll likely be -10 or something like that. From a part-time catcher who's a splendid defender, that's not a calamity.

So can Mathis be better than -30? I'd have to imagine so; his defense is well-regarded, so I doubt he'll produce a lot of negative runs in that part of his game, and -30 is a lot of runs to "put up" with the bat. A lot. Take a look at Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections for the Angels: Mathis is projected to hit a rather poor 223/281/378 in just over 400 AB. That comes out to being roughly -15 runs.

Let's just be pessimistic and peg Mathis and Jose to be -30 offensively overall; do you think there's any chance that combo is going to be -10 with the glove? Jose is, as mentioned, an excellent defender, and Mathis has a good rep. Jose has been at +5 the last two seasons in just throwing out basestealers. He might gain a run or two because he's good at blocking balls in the dirt and such, but let's just say +5 is what he'll be again this year (again, we're being conservative). That means Mathis would have to be -15 defensively to negate the Kotch/Finley advantage.

Do you think there's any chance in hell Jeff Mathis is going to be that poor of a defender? Mike Piazza last year threw out only 13 baserunners and allowed 82 to steal successfully. That's a huge number. And you know what? That only cost his team around 10 runs. I think Jeff Mathis is going to have a better arm than Mike Piazza, but I don't know. And even if he doesn't, -5 is a lot to give away in passed balls and the like.

So when you read these articles about how the Angels didn't improve themselves (in re: position players, pitchers may be another story) this winter, you just have to realize that whoever's writing it isn't looking at the big picture. Defense matters, and the positional shenanigans implemented by the Angels are really going to help on that front.

And what's encouraging is that we should see a slight improvement even if Mathis hits like Steve Finley, or if Casey Kotchman is only just a bit above average, or if Erstad is only a slightly above average center fielder. We're probably gaining a game or so even with those modest expectations, and I'd give Kotch and The Punter even odds to surpass those expectations. Even though we might slip from last year, I see no reason why a healthy 2006 Angels team won't remain competitive.

Tuesday, February 14, 2006

John Sickels has posted his Top 20 Prospects for the Angels. To wit:

1. Brandon Wood, SS, Grade A
2. Howie Kendrick, 2B, Grade A-
3. Kendry Morales, 1B, Grade B+
4. Jered Weaver, RHP, B+
5. Erick Aybar, SS, B+
6. Jeff Mathis, C, B
7. Thomas Mendoza, RHP, B
8. Steven Shell, RHP, B-
9. Nick Adenhart, RHP, B-
10. Alberto Callaspo, 2B, B-
11. Michael Collins, C, B-
12. Trevor Bell, RHP, B-
13. P.J. Phillips, SS, C+
14. Sean Rodriguez, SS, C+
15. Joe Saunders, LHP, C+
16. Hainley Statia, SS, C+
17. Mike Napoli, C, C+
18. Ryan Mount, SS, C+
19. Gustavo Espinosa, LHP, C+
20. Drew Toussaint, OF, C

Don't have much to argue about here. Maybe a few tweaks ...

... Baseball America had Tommy Mendoza tenth, but I'm still a bit surprised by his high ranking on this list. A converted catcher with electric stuff, Mendoza lit up the Arizona League last year with a dominant cup of coffee in the California League. But he's relatively new to pitching, and has only 62 professional innings under his belt.

Gustavo Espinoza, on the other hand, seems underrated by comparison. Check out their numbers in 2005, expressed as a percentage of batters faced:
Pitcher    K%    BB%    H%    HR%
Mendoza 29% 6% 20% 0%
Espinoza 35% 6% 34% 2%
Mendoza was better at preventing hits, but given that Gustavo was coming off a superb Dominican Summer League season, I don't know that one of them rates a B and the other a C+. And that's before considering that all but two of Espinoza's appearances came as a starter, but Mendoza started only five of his fifteen games (as you probably know, relievers have advantages over starters in racking up rate stats, as they get to go all out for short periods of time, while starters have to pace themselves over more innings).

For these same reasons, I'm surprised to see Mendoza outrank Steven Shell and Nick Adenhart.

I certainly don't want to give the impression that I'm down on Mendoza in any way -- his debut last season was tres impressive, and the Angels have had good results in converting backstops to moundsmen. And it's certainly a testament to his stuff that both BA and Sickels rank him so high despite his short track record. Both he and Espinoza (and Adenhart, too, for that matter) are still far away from the majors, so they have plenty of time to develop. Given the attrition rates for pitching prospects, we might be lucky if just one of these guys makes an impact at the major league level, but they're three highly intriguing pitchers that I any team would die to have.

Michael Collins outranking Mike Napoli is also a bit of a surprise, but Collins is three years younger, and Napoli's disastrous summer slump last year left him with a pretty unimpressive .237 average (though his power and walks were both prodigious). Collins also demonstrated solid bat control at Cedar Rapids last season (34 BB to 44 K in 363 AB), while Napoli has always struck out a ton.

Some of these guys seem to be ranked as much on their pre-draft reputations as their actual professional performance. Trevor Bell, P.J. Phillips, and Ryan Mount were all drafted in 2005; Bell has only eight professional innings, Phillips was unspectacular in the Arizona League (291/328/407, but with only nine walks against 53 strikeouts in only 182 AB), and Mount downright struggled on the same team (216/325/333 in 102 AB; a good number of walks [17] but also a lot of whiffs [31]). Ranking Phillips over Sean Rodriguez at this point is a matter of projection based on physical tools, but it's worth noting that S-Rod's performance in the Arizona League back in 2003 certainly didn't light the world on fire, either; with guys this far away from The Show, projection probably counts as much as their small-sample performances.

This list really demonstrates the depth of the Angel system. As I said, most any team would kill to have Gustavo Espinoza, and he ranks 19th here. Looking at some other lists at random, and keeping in mind that our bottom guy, Drew Toussaint, ranks a C ... in the Met system, for instance, a C grade might rank you in the top ten. The Halo farm is in great shape.

Monday, February 13, 2006

The Angels, as you well know, have won in court against the city of Anaheim, and are free to call themselves by their wacky-fun two-city cognomen.

The court case received little digital ink in these pages, for the simple reason that I'm not a lawyer, don't want to be a lawyer, and didn't have any legal analysis to give you beyond what was being widely reported in the media. A general guiding principle I have is that if I have nothing to add to the discussion, I just shut up about it and get out of the way. Don't know if I always succeed in following that, but there you go.

Anyway, now that it's over, I'm glad the team won. I started off as an opponent of the name change, but the vociferous silliness of its opponents swayed me to Arte's side. And while many people complain that the name is silly, I wear that as a bade of honor. Yeah, we have a bizarre name -- so what? You know what else we have? Two consecutive division titles, three postseason appearances in the last four years, and one of the top (if not the top) farm system in baseball. You can call me anything while those facts remain true.

Added good news is reported in the LA Times today, as Arte and Fox Sports are on the brink of signing a 10-year deal for broadcast rights that could be worth as much as $500M to the club. $50M per year sounds good to me -- that's half the payroll paid out to the players!

The deal will reportedly call for FSN to broadcast 150 games per season, the only (slight) drawback being that you would need cable to see the games. Of course, just about everyone has cable now, anyway, but in case you're a television Luddite, your time has come. This is good news for certain out-of-town Halo fans, who should be able to follow all the action through the MLB Extra Innings package, which almost never includes broadcasts from local stations such as Channel 9.

So while this is all good news, it's just here to keep us somewhat satiated until we hear the best news of all: pitchers and catchers report this Wednesday!

Tuesday, February 07, 2006

- As a complement to Halofan's Top 100 Angels, Matt Welch has begun a series on the top ten individual seasons by position. He starts with catcher, and a major Angel hero better known for his play at other positions takes two of the three spots.

- Speaking of Halofan, a few days ago he caught wind of the Angels signing Jeff Weaver. No official word yet, but if he's signed to a one- or even two-year deal in the $7M-$8M range, that's a pretty good deal for the Angels. My guess is that his performance the past couple of years has been "worth" roughly $6M per season; I'd be fine with paying Weaver more as (1) most starting pitchers are overpaid , (2) the Lads are facing a potential big dropoff from Paul Byrd to Hector Carrasco, and (3) as legitimate contenders based in a major media market, marginal wins have more value to the Angels than they would to, say, the Royals or Colorado Rockies.

- If the Jeff Mathis Experience goes horribly awry, we won't have Bengie Molina to bail us out on May 1. He has signed a one-year deal with the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Los Angeles Times has an article on Tim Salmon today, and how, even if he comes back healthy, he might have difficulty finding a spot on the Angels. I, as I'm sure you do, have mixed feelings about this; I'd love to see Salmon go out out on a high note, but it seems wrong to let that happen for another team. I don't really know who would go for him if he proves he can play -- I would have guessed maybe Toronto, though they have Shea Hillenbrand as a righty DH (but no real backup right fielder), and if they get one more of our former players they might have to become the Los Angeles Blue Jays of Toronto. This is going to be a pretty interesting story to follow this spring ...

- ... and spring starts soon! Pitchers and catchers report in eight days! Spring Training is nigh!

Friday, February 03, 2006

Wow, what's this? Actual Angels news? Madness!

  • Baseball America has posted their top 10 Angel prospects. Full commentary is behind the subscriber wall, though Rob gives a few excerpts. Here is the list:

    1. Brandon Wood
    2. Howie Kendrick
    3. Erick Aybar
    4. Jeff Mathis
    5. Jered Weaver
    6. Nick Adenhart
    7. Kendry Morales
    8. Alberto Callaspo
    9. Joe Saunders
    10. Tommy Mendoza

    I would say that Mathis is ranked too high here; I'm also a bit surprised by spots nine and ten. Tommy Mendoza is especially odd, as he's only thrown 62 minor league innings. They were very good innings, and BA says he has the best fastball in the system, but whither Gustavo Espinoza, who had a very good 77 innings last year on the heels of 92 superb innings in the Dominican Summer League? How about Bob Zimmerman, who pitched very well after a rough start, or Mike Napoli, or Sean Rodriguez?

    Still, as Rob mentions in his post, "You just gotta love this organization's future. Except for maybe the pitching..." Well, I like the pitching more than the outfield right now, but I agree on the overall prognosis.

  • The LA Times reports that the Angels are back to looking at Jeff Weaver to take over the fifth spot in the rotation. Thankfully, apparently all the Angels are willing to offer is a one-year deal with an option for 2007. I think that's all he deserves, if signed fairly cheaply. He can give you 220 league-average innings, which has considerable value, but you don't want him blocking his brother in a year. Even if he were signed at around $7M or $8M for the year, which I think is too much (but lower than his reported asking price), I would be cautiously optimistic that it would work out, and I'm far from the world's biggest Jeff Weaver fan.

  • Wednesday, February 01, 2006

    And our carousel ends at first base. David Pinto's post is here. This is for all batted balls, groundball-only data should be up soon.
                       Original Method            Alternative Method
    Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
    Total Per 275 Opp Total Per 275 Opp
    Mark Teixeira 23.4241 21.3625 30.7860 29.1524
    Tino Martinez 22.2137 43.2020 21.9689 42.9477
    Ben Broussard 21.5710 32.6978 20.9677 31.8904
    Darin Erstad 19.1292 19.7720 21.6972 22.8444
    Travis Lee 16.1764 21.2909 17.4245 23.2495
    Paul Konerko 14.5493 15.6499 11.6455 12.4306
    Chad Tracy 12.9407 27.0932 14.7848 31.7245
    D. Mientkiewicz 10.6688 22.2066 14.5886 31.7595
    John Olerud 9.2801 28.2085 10.5332 32.7971
    Jose Hernandez 7.4443 32.0171 8.5525 37.8671
    Lance Niekro 6.8713 16.0942 7.4561 17.6807
    Albert Pujols 6.3454 5.9176 6.5017 6.1046
    Derrek Lee 6.1364 6.3478 9.2396 9.7637
    Daryle Ward 5.7957 10.3777 3.7117 6.5857
    Lyle Overbay 5.6757 6.2903 9.1814 10.4287
    Ryan Howard 3.9601 7.6864 2.6112 5.0391
    Kevin Millar 3.8594 5.2095 3.8947 5.2873
    Hee Seop Choi 2.5479 4.5442 0.9112 1.6130
    Todd Helton 0.2136 0.2111 3.3463 3.3747
    Mark Sweeney 0.1937 0.7098 -0.0215 -0.0790
    Eduardo Perez 0.1539 0.6619 1.8159 8.1333
    Mike Lamb 0.0102 0.0349 0.2396 0.8281
    J.T. Snow -1.0579 -1.5412 -0.9392 -1.3777
    Chris Shelton -2.4437 -4.5866 -4.2316 -7.8760
    Scott Hatteberg -2.5535 -7.0701 -1.3701 -3.8738
    Nick Johnson -2.8246 -2.8048 -3.7584 -3.7364
    Matt Stairs -2.8706 -7.4151 -3.9047 -10.0327
    Mike Sweeney -3.2346 -8.0123 -3.8214 -9.4538
    Brad Eldred -4.9597 -20.7977 -4.1761 -17.9303
    S. Hillenbrand -5.2569 -11.1307 -8.5794 -17.7061
    Tony Clark -6.0177 -13.3253 -4.2695 -9.6929
    Dan Johnson -6.4859 -9.4487 -8.6779 -12.5331
    Phil Nevin -6.7007 -13.1143 -6.5766 -12.9608
    Justin Morneau -6.8595 -7.5046 -8.0609 -8.8211
    Jim Thome -8.1217 -27.4754 -9.2533 -30.9834
    Sean Casey -8.1312 -8.8804 -7.9345 -8.7290
    Julio Franco -8.7127 -26.5926 -9.2791 -28.2775
    Carlos Pena -10.0969 -26.2766 -12.5224 -31.8503
    Eric Hinske -12.0196 -16.5867 -14.7704 -20.1510
    Lance Berkman -12.3319 -22.3552 -13.3590 -24.1581
    Richie Sexson -12.4157 -12.6790 -17.0889 -17.1927
    Adam LaRoche -13.3216 -14.9011 -15.4928 -17.2373
    R. Palmeiro -14.1075 -25.3003 -15.9478 -28.3567
    Olmedo Saenz -15.9069 -47.6931 -15.7764 -47.7075
    Jason Giambi -16.3347 -41.6316 -16.3322 -41.9283
    Carlos Delgado -16.3502 -17.0218 -15.7177 -16.5115
    Though the groundball-only figures will be of interest, a lot of what is presented here "seems" right, the one real surprise to me being Paul Konerko. Stay tuned.

    UPDATE: The groundball numbers have been posted.
                       Original Method            Alternative Method
    Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
    Total Per 200 Opp Total Per 200 Opp
    Mark Teixeira 17.1915 15.7057 23.2682 22.1391
    Tino Martinez 17.0375 34.3221 15.8624 31.6835
    Ben Broussard 10.5799 17.0616 10.5327 17.0846
    D. Mientkiewicz 9.6507 22.5563 11.6756 28.2942
    Darin Erstad 9.4631 10.3671 12.3451 13.8654
    Chad Tracy 9.2302 20.7653 9.9839 22.8387
    Albert Pujols 7.6027 6.8030 7.2079 6.4688
    Lance Niekro 7.0740 19.4421 6.7786 18.6354
    Daryle Ward 6.2248 11.4901 3.8322 6.9255
    Derrek Lee 5.9749 6.4006 5.5827 5.9975
    John Olerud 5.7296 18.4172 6.7979 22.4426
    Lyle Overbay 5.2184 6.4809 6.6069 8.3400
    Hee Seop Choi 4.3832 7.3181 4.0426 6.7563
    Ryan Howard 3.0128 6.1543 2.0790 4.2179
    Paul Konerko 3.0069 3.5547 2.1823 2.5784
    Justin Morneau 2.1767 2.7440 0.8332 1.0451
    S. Hillenbrand 1.9723 4.3606 -0.0001 -0.0003
    Mike Lamb 0.8276 2.7509 1.0162 3.4094
    Phil Nevin 0.1173 0.2348 0.0197 0.0395
    Kevin Millar 0.0414 0.0553 1.2460 1.6888
    Todd Helton -0.6065 -0.5765 1.1571 1.1169
    Eric Hinske -0.8095 -1.1376 -1.1757 -1.6544
    J.T. Snow -1.0734 -1.7031 -0.0389 -0.0626
    Nick Johnson -1.6399 -1.7231 -1.3663 -1.4440
    Scott Hatteberg -2.3564 -6.6191 -2.4035 -6.7762
    Jim Thome -2.5053 -8.5797 -1.7212 -6.0287
    Brad Eldred -2.5716 -12.6963 -2.4714 -12.3353
    Matt Stairs -2.7475 -6.9664 -3.0372 -7.7057
    Travis Lee -3.4624 -5.1413 -1.8940 -2.8682
    Tony Clark -3.4770 -8.4743 -2.7332 -6.7797
    Julio Franco -3.8024 -11.0649 -4.2348 -12.2889
    Mike Sweeney -3.8190 -9.2247 -3.7440 -9.0918
    Dan Johnson -4.5890 -7.6914 -5.6411 -9.4002
    Carlos Pena -5.1028 -15.1329 -6.2060 -18.1251
    Richie Sexson -5.2059 -5.3309 -8.3358 -8.4081
    Chris Shelton -5.2952 -9.5719 -7.4251 -13.1733
    Lance Berkman -8.2428 -14.1361 -7.1141 -12.4091
    Sean Casey -8.6746 -9.8307 -9.4379 -10.6897
    Jason Giambi -9.4387 -26.6028 -9.7405 -27.4807
    Olmedo Saenz -9.4850 -27.9918 -9.2145 -27.4773
    R. Palmeiro -10.4772 -19.5617 -11.0283 -20.5694
    Adam LaRoche -13.3227 -15.2573 -16.1538 -18.2148
    Carlos Delgado -17.7897 -18.3883 -17.9367 -18.6095

    David Pinto's leftfield figures are up.
                       Original Method            Alternative Method
    Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
    Total Per 270 Opp Total Per 270 Opp
    Coco Crisp 17.5383 18.1125 18.1277 18.6407
    Carl Crawford 15.2971 13.3263 15.6815 13.5923
    Eric Byrnes 13.1917 19.2133 14.8741 21.7552
    Reed Johnson 12.8980 30.9085 13.6487 32.6987
    Chris Burke 10.3599 27.5177 9.7069 25.3518
    Matt Holliday 8.8647 11.1495 10.7362 13.5374
    Luis Gonzalez 8.7778 9.6178 10.1236 11.0712
    Scott Podsednik 8.1922 9.2154 8.1458 9.0996
    Randy Winn 7.2299 9.3316 7.9046 10.1785
    Jay Payton 6.6230 18.8889 8.2941 23.9867
    B.J. Surhoff 6.3168 26.3117 6.3788 26.3666
    Kevin Mench 6.0538 7.6512 3.6412 4.5066
    Brian Jordan 5.2750 21.8677 5.5954 23.1323
    Jayson Werth 3.8419 13.6292 3.9370 13.8916
    Kelly Johnson 3.8192 6.6571 3.8139 6.6030
    Ryan Langerhans 3.4804 11.3205 3.3558 10.8161
    Hideki Matsui 3.4091 4.5047 2.7896 3.6455
    Carlos Lee 3.3539 3.1244 4.0580 3.7640
    Cliff Floyd 2.6378 2.6616 3.8124 3.8388
    Moises Alou 2.1102 4.6018 5.2750 11.7793
    Ryan Church 0.8987 3.3426 1.0017 3.7050
    Shannon Stewart 0.3031 0.3445 1.0581 1.1982
    Pedro Feliz -0.1281 -0.2620 0.5456 1.1147
    Bobby Kielty -1.6189 -4.5169 0.8420 2.4064
    Tony Womack -1.7953 -6.8551 -3.0147 -11.1918
    Raul Ibanez -1.8289 -4.7677 -2.2341 -5.7558
    Jason Bay -2.3350 -2.4510 -3.0261 -3.1436
    Larry Bigbie -2.3553 -6.6104 -0.8063 -2.2896
    Reggie Sanders -3.1501 -8.0414 -3.9272 -9.8480
    T Hollandsworth -3.3051 -8.7961 -4.4223 -11.5163
    Rondell White -3.8515 -8.7807 -4.9369 -11.0555
    F. Catalanotto -3.8586 -6.5073 -0.8077 -1.3835
    Terrence Long -4.8509 -8.0053 -6.9467 -11.2010
    Marlon Byrd -5.5052 -14.4536 -5.3418 -13.9689
    Ryan Klesko -6.2569 -8.3422 -7.8980 -10.3553
    Ricky Ledee -6.9525 -30.5380 -8.2043 -34.8296
    Craig Monroe -6.9906 -18.4592 -9.3456 -23.8252
    Adam Dunn -7.4325 -8.2309 -5.6157 -6.2292
    David Dellucci -8.5353 -25.5152 -10.1375 -29.4693
    G. Anderson -13.9050 -17.9685 -11.6277 -15.1221
    Pat Burrell -19.7631 -21.5510 -26.6037 -27.8648
    Manny Ramirez -20.3185 -21.5205 -21.4842 -22.4547
    Miguel Cabrera -25.7625 -33.3727 -26.9487 -34.3945
    No big surprises here, with fast guys with quick reps at the top and big boppers with bad reps at the bottom.

    This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?