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Monday, January 31, 2005

PROBABLISTIC RUNS? v.2B
David Pinto has his second base numbers up, so as I did with shortstops yesterday, here's an attempt to put that into runs. This time, I'll give you runs prevented per 4000 balls in play (which appears to be roughly a full season) as well as actual runs above average so we can see the regulars without all the small sample size interlopers.

Player          Runs Above Average

per 4000 BIP
Chase Utley 39.6504
Nick Green 29.8582
Willie Harris 26.7980
Bill Hall 26.4337
Orlando Hudson 25.9354
Mark Loretta 20.5481
Placido Polanco 17.9412
Tony Graffanino 17.7581
Luis Rivas 16.9561
Aaron Miles 14.3585
Rey Sanchez 14.0826
Jeff Kent 12.9995
Juan Uribe 12.8216
Mark Grudzielanek 11.1060
Keith Ginter 8.6658
Junior Spivey 7.3010
D'Angelo Jimenez 5.8478
Luis Castillo 4.1346
Omar Infante 1.7293
Alex Cora -0.3362
Bret Boone -1.1137
Alfonso Soriano -1.8485
Adam Kennedy -1.8888
Tony Womack -1.9660
Brian Roberts -2.3235
Mark McLemore -2.7343
Jose Castillo -3.9181
Ronnie Belliard -4.4164
Marcus Giles -5.6248
Danny Garcia -5.9944
Ray Durham -14.0173
Todd Walker -14.8814
Jose Hernandez -15.2068
Marco Scutaro -18.0686
Scott A Hairston -18.1780
Jamey Carroll -19.6685
Geoff Blum -21.3877
Ruben A Gotay -23.7138
Jose Reyes -28.4624
Jose Vidro -30.1419
Mark Bellhorn -31.3620
Miguel Cairo -33.8793
Enrique Wilson -50.8959


Player          Runs Above Average

Actual
Orlando Hudson 23.1362
Mark Loretta 21.0199
Willie Harris 13.6784
Nick Green 13.3358
Placido Polanco 13.0949
Aaron Miles 12.0366
Chase Utley 11.6996
Jeff Kent 11.2168
Luis Rivas 11.1845
Tony Graffanino 9.2834
Bill Hall 8.2833
Rey Sanchez 7.6695
Juan Uribe 6.2069
D'Angelo Jimenez 5.9025
Mark Grudzielanek 4.4711
Luis Castillo 3.9129
Keith Ginter 3.0645
Junior Spivey 2.9187
Omar Infante 1.1779
Alex Cora -0.2641
Mark McLemore -0.7678
Bret Boone -1.1132
Tony Womack -1.6280
Danny Garcia -1.6324
Adam Kennedy -1.7221
Alfonso Soriano -1.8038
Brian Roberts -2.3471
Jose Castillo -2.7948
Marcus Giles -3.3988
Jose Hernandez -3.8906
Ronnie Belliard -4.4523
Jamey Carroll -5.1311
Geoff Blum -6.0234
Ruben A Gotay -6.8447
Todd Walker -7.7856
Jose Reyes -7.8744
Scott A Hairston -9.7975
Ray Durham -10.7722
Marco Scutaro -13.4135
Jose Vidro -20.1436
Miguel Cairo -22.1764
Enrique Wilson -22.8735
Mark Bellhorn -24.3924
I don't know how much I believe Adam Kennedy was below-average, but there you go ... even advanced defensive metrics seem to be in their infancy, if several different sophisticated and seemingly rational systems can't always agree. Compare some of these to the few UZR numbers that have been made public:

Player     PMR     UZR   Difference

Cairo -22 +20 42
Uribe + 6 -13 19
Hudson +23 + 6 17
Castillo + 4 -12 16
Kennedy - 2 +12 14
Soriano - 2 -15 13
Roberts - 2 + 9 11
Kent +11 +20 9
Womack - 2 + 9 7
Cora 0 - 7 7
Boone - 1 + 6 7
Belliard - 4 -11 7
Miles +12 + 7 5
Scutaro -13 - 8 5
Polanco +13 +11 2
Vidro -20 -19 1
Durham -11 -11 0
Holy cow, look at Miguel Cairo! Per ball-in-play, Pinto had him next-to-last amongst all major league 2B with at least 1000 BIP, but Lichtman has him tied for first in the majors! For whatever it's worth, his Zone Rating ranked next-to-last amongst MLB qualifiers ...

We have a long way to go here, folks.

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