Tuesday, January 31, 2006
PMR REDUX -- RIGHTFIELDERS
David Pinto has posted his rightfield figures.
David Pinto has posted his rightfield figures.
Original Method Alternative MethodA few of these match popular perception (Ichiro! and Mike Cameron), but there are also big surprises like Vlad (who I think is closer to average) and Gary Sheffield (probably closer to bad). Also interesting to see Nick Swisher rate well; he did very well by UZR, to the surprise of many, but his solid PMR performance indicates that UZR might have been on to something.
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Total Per 285 Opp Total Per 285 Opp
Dustan Mohr 16.7942 59.2298 14.9253 51.2928
Jose Cruz Jr 14.3267 45.0924 13.7038 42.8245
Ichiro! Suzuki 11.1130 8.7730 12.0305 9.5332
Vlad Guerrero 11.0270 13.9230 11.9377 15.1582
Nick Swisher 9.5688 15.1734 11.7123 18.8567
Mike Cameron 9.2092 21.4325 9.8921 23.1960
Jeff Francoeur 8.8589 21.5996 5.3913 12.7142
Brian Giles 8.5394 8.7699 14.5573 15.3547
Jason Lane 6.8018 9.2109 8.1402 11.1174
Geoff Jenkins 6.2193 6.0640 7.4925 7.3489
Gary Sheffield 6.1334 7.7373 5.0814 6.3814
Shawn Green 6.1182 7.9869 5.7484 7.4963
J.D. Drew 4.2428 16.0030 3.9558 14.8694
Jeromy Burnitz 2.9528 2.8845 0.8301 0.8047
Ryan Langerhans 2.8843 11.8584 3.4438 14.3093
Jay Gibbons 2.8668 6.4746 4.0248 9.1972
Chad Tracy 1.1147 3.8587 1.2555 4.3588
Jermaine Dye 0.2902 0.3280 0.1490 0.1684
Richard Hidalgo -0.2742 -0.4604 -1.1208 -1.8726
Raul Mondesi -0.3507 -1.5317 -1.8120 -7.7181
Trot Nixon -0.6690 -0.8121 1.9850 2.4442
Casey Blake -0.9998 -1.0142 1.1964 1.2259
Magglio Ordonez -1.2613 -2.6402 -1.3266 -2.7781
Jacque Jones -1.3024 -1.4460 0.0623 0.0697
Victor Diaz -1.3536 -2.5629 -1.8116 -3.4209
Kevin Mench -1.5225 -7.2655 -2.7008 -12.6103
Bobby Abreu -1.8052 -1.9709 -1.5969 -1.7468
Austin Kearns -1.9269 -2.3423 -0.7050 -0.8630
Larry Walker -3.6325 -9.6457 -5.0398 -13.1943
J. Encarnacion -3.8606 -5.1465 -5.7259 -7.5631
Michael Tucker -5.6989 -17.1074 -4.7777 -14.5212
Jose Guillen -6.0552 -5.7782 -8.1523 -7.7217
Sammy Sosa -6.4104 -14.6169 -5.3233 -12.2745
Aubrey Huff -7.4136 -10.1816 -8.9821 -12.2366
Moises Alou -8.4440 -24.7384 -8.2429 -24.2289
Craig Monroe -8.5540 -17.6493 -9.4930 -19.4488
Brad Hawpe -10.9847 -20.0207 -9.4310 -17.4082
Matt Lawton -13.6627 -16.2204 -12.9222 -15.4093
Wily Mo Pena -13.9625 -37.6045 -15.6143 -41.3267
Emil Brown -14.3117 -16.1481 -17.6617 -19.6394
Alexis Rios -14.6202 -16.2428 -15.0456 -16.6965
Monday, January 30, 2006
PMR REDUX, THIRD BASEMEN
David Pinto has posted his PMR figures for groundballs-only. Here are the run converions; I've done something different, though. Before, to represent the "per 150 games" figure, I presented Runs Per 4000 Balls in Play (or, for groundball-only figures, 2000 groundballs). A comment by somoene named GuyM over on this BTF thread made me re-think this, and now I present the rate as an expression of Runs Per X Predicted Outs, where X is different based on what position I'm dealing with (or if we're dealing with groundballs alone or with all batted balls).
Why do this? Well, looking at two players on the below list ... per PMR, Brandon Inge was on the field for 2,135 groundballs, and would be expected to make roughly 342 outs. Alex Rodriguez was on the field for 2,153 groundballs, or 18 more than Inge ... but he's only expected to make around 253 outs. I have Inge at +.5651 runs per PMR, which would be .5294 per 2000 groundballs, but is .4549 per 275 predicted outs. Obviously, the difference here is incredibly slight as Inge is so close to average, but for extreme players it can make a real difference.
Anyway, here's the groundball-only, for David Pinto's original and "smoothed visitor" PMR modles; I'll have all batted balls below that:
Here we go with the numbers for all batted balls:
David Pinto has posted his PMR figures for groundballs-only. Here are the run converions; I've done something different, though. Before, to represent the "per 150 games" figure, I presented Runs Per 4000 Balls in Play (or, for groundball-only figures, 2000 groundballs). A comment by somoene named GuyM over on this BTF thread made me re-think this, and now I present the rate as an expression of Runs Per X Predicted Outs, where X is different based on what position I'm dealing with (or if we're dealing with groundballs alone or with all batted balls).
Why do this? Well, looking at two players on the below list ... per PMR, Brandon Inge was on the field for 2,135 groundballs, and would be expected to make roughly 342 outs. Alex Rodriguez was on the field for 2,153 groundballs, or 18 more than Inge ... but he's only expected to make around 253 outs. I have Inge at +.5651 runs per PMR, which would be .5294 per 2000 groundballs, but is .4549 per 275 predicted outs. Obviously, the difference here is incredibly slight as Inge is so close to average, but for extreme players it can make a real difference.
Anyway, here's the groundball-only, for David Pinto's original and "smoothed visitor" PMR modles; I'll have all batted balls below that:
Original Method Alternative MethodThe only real surprises here come near the middle, where we find perennial Gold Glover Eric Chavez and the acclaimed David Wright. Don't really know what's going on there ... also interesting to see A-Rod right around average, as other zone-based measures peg his 2005 as being pretty awful. There's always something screwy with the numbers for the left side of the Yankee defense, though.
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Total Per 275 Opp Total Per 275 Opp
David Bell 11.7800 12.6144 15.2790 16.6722
Pedro Feliz 11.7578 28.6115 13.6808 34.0719
Aaron Boone 10.9794 12.0628 10.1791 11.1573
Scott Rolen 10.4266 24.1458 11.4463 26.8372
Morgan Ensberg 9.8072 10.5154 10.2077 10.9846
Freddy Sanchez 9.6542 23.9180 11.9218 30.3565
Corey Koskie 8.8148 18.6223 6.1738 12.7433
Chone Figgins 7.9606 29.5353 7.8199 28.9979
Wilson Betemit 6.7847 24.5305 7.2256 26.3709
Joe Crede 6.6201 8.4680 7.7798 10.0359
Bill Mueller 6.3734 7.6607 10.1193 12.4394
Abraham Nunez 5.9801 9.3306 6.6860 10.5012
Melvin Mora 5.8763 6.2036 5.0814 5.3532
E. Encarnacion 5.5288 15.5686 4.9698 13.9176
Adrian Beltre 4.1304 4.7256 6.1447 7.1176
Dallas McPherson 4.0202 15.8912 5.1781 20.9472
Rob Mackowiak 2.0959 5.4267 2.2683 5.8936
Alex Rodriguez 1.5131 1.6435 6.2020 6.9101
Eric Chavez 1.3894 1.4309 1.2301 1.2679
Brandon Inge 0.5651 0.4549 -2.1927 -1.7499
Alex S Gonzalez 0.4040 0.7255 1.5013 2.7250
David Wright 0.0713 0.0656 -3.3858 -3.0747
Aramis Ramirez -0.6016 -0.8502 -1.8474 -2.5945
Garrett Atkins -0.7439 -0.8716 -2.0914 -2.4374
Bill Hall -2.7318 -9.2597 -2.3726 -8.1010
S. Hillenbrand -3.0919 -9.5472 -3.7313 -11.4379
Sean Burroughs -3.8216 -7.8440 -6.1099 -12.2977
Mike Cuddyer -4.2929 -6.7111 -4.0334 -6.3277
Russell Branyan -4.2988 -15.2656 -5.0316 -17.6897
Mike Lowell -4.6936 -5.7969 -5.5603 -6.8458
Chipper Jones -5.5794 -10.0035 -3.9371 -7.1688
Mark Teahen -7.0882 -8.7887 -7.2170 -8.9573
Jorge Cantu -10.0251 -30.0414 -10.3838 -31.0150
E. Alfonzo -12.1101 -21.6195 -10.1375 -18.4258
Hank Blalock -15.0618 -14.6113 -12.2744 -12.0772
Troy Glaus -18.1002 -16.2767 -24.0243 -21.1238
V. Castilla -19.0580 -25.2430 -24.9218 -31.9391
Joe Randa -21.2554 -25.1408 -21.8364 -25.7914
Here we go with the numbers for all batted balls:
Original Method Alternative Method
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Total Per 300 Opp Total Per 300 Opp
E. Encarnacion 14.8947 34.8849 12.4298 28.4586
David Bell 13.9397 12.2885 18.1285 16.2476
Morgan Ensberg 13.6466 12.5175 12.8936 11.8052
Pedro Feliz 13.3177 27.5785 15.5460 32.8623
Chone Figgins 9.9101 30.3526 9.9088 30.3857
Brandon Inge 9.7409 6.8514 6.5857 4.5941
Freddy Sanchez 8.9168 19.2505 11.5450 25.5533
Wilson Betemit 8.3402 25.8583 8.6895 27.0983
Corey Koskie 7.8757 13.9641 5.0322 8.7485
Abraham Nunez 7.8250 11.1130 9.1892 13.1695
Aaron Boone 7.8099 7.2303 7.5823 7.0209
Scott Rolen 7.7628 16.7868 9.0655 19.8559
Alex Rodriguez 6.1188 5.5513 10.2433 9.4519
Joe Crede 5.2749 5.4493 5.9326 6.1527
Bill Mueller 5.1183 5.1744 12.2386 12.7708
Melvin Mora 4.5104 3.9696 3.0066 2.6343
Alex S Gonzalez 3.9578 5.8521 5.8382 8.7438
Adrian Beltre 3.1304 2.7856 3.9008 3.4850
Rob Mackowiak 2.8876 6.5494 3.7543 8.5938
D. McPherson 1.7515 5.3963 3.1354 9.8484
Chipper Jones 0.1858 0.2760 2.4367 3.6747
Eric Chavez -1.8816 -1.5695 -2.4671 -2.0558
Mark Teahen -1.9091 -1.9369 -2.2740 -2.3061
Jeff Cirillo -2.5424 -8.5824 -3.4265 -11.4368
Mike Lowell -3.0025 -3.1194 -0.7523 -0.7901
S. Hillenbrand -3.9415 -10.1954 -4.7537 -12.2025
Bill Hall -4.1193 -11.3950 -3.6088 -10.0533
Sean Burroughs -4.4691 -7.5710 -6.8512 -11.4257
Russell Branyan -5.2988 -15.1539 -5.1887 -14.8757
David Wright -5.5053 -4.2754 -9.6860 -7.4293
Aramis Ramirez -5.8546 -6.9706 -8.1484 -9.6025
Garrett Atkins -8.3099 -8.4310 -10.0935 -10.1755
Edgardo Alfonzo -9.4601 -13.7681 -7.9685 -11.7167
Mike Cuddyer -9.7145 -13.1610 -8.8392 -12.0475
Troy Glaus -15.8773 -12.5420 -22.1237 -17.1404
Hank Blalock -17.9240 -14.7555 -16.8201 -13.9151
Joe Randa -18.6226 -17.3239 -18.6716 -17.3851
Jorge Cantu -19.0362 -47.8536 -19.6940 -49.2268
V. Castilla -19.4940 -18.2660 -25.6902 -23.5273
Thursday, January 26, 2006
PMR REDUX -- CENTER FIELDERS
The CF figures are up, so here we go (in the interests of space I've combined the two different lists I posted for other positions):
The only rating that jumps out as clearly wrong is Steve Finley, who seems overrated by about 20 runs.
The CF figures are up, so here we go (in the interests of space I've combined the two different lists I posted for other positions):
Original Method Alternative MethodFor the most part, this list seems to match popular perception, particularly at the top and bottom. Interesting that Mark Kotsay, who had a great defensive rep coming into 2005, rates poorly; he has rated poorly in every play-by-play defensive metric I've seen for 2005.
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Total Per 4000 BIP Total Per 4000 BIP
Andruw Jones 18.1341 16.8337 22.5922 20.9721
Aaron Rowand 16.4488 15.9388 18.0039 17.4456
Jim Edmonds 14.4121 16.2940 17.0982 19.3309
Jason Ellison 12.8179 27.4619 13.5398 29.0087
Brady Clark 11.7481 12.4814 12.5370 13.3195
G. Matthews Jr. 10.2271 14.4963 10.3165 14.6230
Tike Redman 9.7009 24.0567 10.6247 26.3477
Joey Gathright 9.3279 23.5109 10.4651 26.3771
Luis Matos 7.5325 9.9867 5.9460 7.8833
Nook Logan 6.9303 10.1543 5.0152 7.3483
Jason Michaels 6.7838 16.7398 6.0941 15.0379
C. Granderson 5.4361 20.8278 5.1308 19.6583
Willy Taveras 5.1866 5.6901 3.5988 3.9482
Corey Patterson 4.2928 6.1347 3.8431 5.4921
Jerry Hairston 3.8810 14.1128 2.0351 7.4003
Carlos Beltran 2.7457 2.7685 2.0601 2.0773
Brad Wilkerson 1.3867 2.2978 1.4826 2.4567
Grady Sizemore 0.4807 0.4649 1.2899 1.2475
Randy Winn 0.2979 0.7435 0.6375 1.5908
Damon Hollins -0.3404 -0.6775 -0.3254 -0.6475
Laynce Nix -0.5761 -1.3767 0.2596 0.6203
Luis Terrero -1.0177 -3.1074 -1.7000 -5.1907
Jeremy Reed -1.5560 -1.6858 -1.0173 -1.1021
Milton Bradley -2.3054 -4.6833 -3.6439 -7.4025
Torii Hunter -2.7189 -4.2235 -1.5465 -2.4023
Chone Figgins -2.9706 -10.0359 -2.8761 -9.7165
Kenny Lofton -5.3194 -9.8188 -5.3191 -9.8183
Vernon Wells -5.4530 -5.1455 -5.3017 -5.0028
Dave Roberts -5.5436 -8.1674 -4.7668 -7.0229
Johnny Damon -5.9105 -5.9823 -5.7769 -5.8471
Juan Pierre -5.9177 -5.6751 -7.4272 -7.1227
Cory Sullivan -6.3627 -13.1528 -7.5302 -15.5662
Jason Repko -6.4408 -22.8396 -6.2372 -22.1176
David DeJesus -6.4854 -7.8516 -7.9603 -9.6371
Mark Kotsay -7.0839 -8.0522 -5.3062 -6.0315
Jose Cruz Jr. -7.1881 -21.8316 -7.4231 -22.5453
Lew Ford -8.0681 -19.2442 -7.1966 -17.1655
Steve Finley -10.8630 -16.1471 -10.8709 -16.1590
Preston Wilson -13.4858 -16.0450 -14.2096 -16.9061
B. Williams -15.2439 -22.6759 -17.1893 -25.5699
K. Griffey Jr. -26.9072 -31.2965 -28.9143 -33.6311
The only rating that jumps out as clearly wrong is Steve Finley, who seems overrated by about 20 runs.
Wednesday, January 25, 2006
PMR REDUX -- SECOND BASEMEN
UPDATE: David Pinto just posted that there was a data error and he'll be re-posting his 2B and SS figures. So I'll update these two posts once the corrected info has been been posted.
UPDATE II: And we're up!
NOTE: There's a lot of numbers here, as this is basically an infodump for people who like exploring this kind of thing. However, I also have some commentary, so if that's your bag, feel free to scroll down.
David Pinto has his second base figures up, so let's get some run conversion up and running:
1.According to PMR, the Yankee middle infield combined to be more than eight wins below average. This strikes me as extreme.Now that Jeter's numbers have been fixed, they're only about four wins below average, which is far more plausible.
2. But not as extreme as Orlando Hudson. Yeah, he's a great fielder. But close to 60 runs above average? He was only around five runs below average with the bat, but if he were really +60 on defense, he's probably the league MVP. Look at it this way: to be +60 on offense, Hudson would have had to have hit something like 349/465/601 (that's just one example, there are tons of combinations to get you there, I'm sure, and that's even with giving him an extra 65 plate appearances; hold the plate appearances constant, one such combo is 349/599/628). I think that's crazy. But that's just me. More on this in the groundball-only section below.
Here are the numbers for everyone prorated to a full season:
At this point, I am bound to believe that the groundball-only figures are a more reliable representation of a defender's range, though I have no opinion as to which PMR model is more accurate.
UPDATE: David Pinto just posted that there was a data error and he'll be re-posting his 2B and SS figures. So I'll update these two posts once the corrected info has been been posted.
UPDATE II: And we're up!
NOTE: There's a lot of numbers here, as this is basically an infodump for people who like exploring this kind of thing. However, I also have some commentary, so if that's your bag, feel free to scroll down.
David Pinto has his second base figures up, so let's get some run conversion up and running:
Original Method Alternative MethodComments:
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Total Total
Orlando Hudson 56.7796 60.7262
Chase Utley 37.8226 40.9235
Craig Counsell 21.0285 21.6342
Nick Punto 19.7492 20.2515
Alex Cora 14.2475 13.0484
Mark Ellis 11.5307 13.7946
Luis Castillo 10.7936 10.1691
Ronnie Belliard 10.7707 5.5427
Brian Roberts 10.6068 16.0227
Adam Kennedy 10.3592 7.4501
Placido Polanco 9.3592 12.2912
Jose C Lopez 9.2068 12.1999
Ryan Freel 8.3460 7.1019
Rich Aurilia 7.7370 5.9489
Junior Spivey 7.2396 6.2272
Tony Graffanino 6.6305 5.7892
Marcus Giles 5.4475 9.5944
M. Grudzielanek 2.6211 4.0721
Luis Rivas 0.7596 0.9052
Jeff Kent -0.9600 0.3238
Freddy Sanchez -1.2822 -2.2633
Jamey Carroll -1.6715 -2.6392
Ruben A Gotay -1.8181 -1.3446
Omar Infante -2.9834 -1.3400
Ray Durham -5.0252 -7.2295
Mark Loretta -5.2430 -6.3838
Aaron Miles -5.4084 -5.0870
Miguel Cairo -5.9186 -6.5893
Nick Green -5.9868 -7.8229
Kazuo Matsui -6.5934 -9.4638
Jose Castillo -6.9431 -6.5045
Tadahito Iguchi -9.2046 -7.1426
Mark Bellhorn -9.2637 -13.1652
Todd Walker -9.6582 -10.7421
Jose Vidro -9.7952 -9.5600
Craig Biggio -10.4574 -8.5563
Luis Gonzalez -14.6924 -16.1398
Chone Figgins -15.0451 -14.5553
Deivi Cruz -15.9488 -15.8118
Rickie Weeks -18.4770 -19.1366
Jorge L Cantu -18.9070 -18.4567
Bret Boone -19.5846 -19.1066
Robinson Cano -28.0094 -27.4471
A. Soriano -32.1664 -37.5290
1.
2. But not as extreme as Orlando Hudson. Yeah, he's a great fielder. But close to 60 runs above average? He was only around five runs below average with the bat, but if he were really +60 on defense, he's probably the league MVP. Look at it this way: to be +60 on offense, Hudson would have had to have hit something like 349/465/601 (that's just one example, there are tons of combinations to get you there, I'm sure, and that's even with giving him an extra 65 plate appearances; hold the plate appearances constant, one such combo is 349/599/628). I think that's crazy. But that's just me. More on this in the groundball-only section below.
Here are the numbers for everyone prorated to a full season:
Original Method Alternative MethodYou think we're done? David Pinto has also posted groundball-only figures, and these will actually be interesting:
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Per 4000 BIP Per 4000 BIP
Orlando Hudson 68.4504 73.2082
Alex Cora 56.6499 51.8821
Nick Punto 45.3483 46.5016
Chase Utley 43.3496 46.9038
Ryan Freel 27.4538 23.3615
Jose C Lopez 26.1928 34.7081
Craig Counsell 21.5235 22.1434
Rich Aurilia 17.2701 13.2788
Junior Spivey 16.3884 14.0967
Mark Ellis 16.0149 19.1592
Luis Castillo 14.0725 13.2582
Tony Graffanino 13.9078 12.1432
Adam Kennedy 12.6447 9.0938
Placido Polanco 12.4748 16.3827
Brian Roberts 11.4886 17.3547
Ronnie Belliard 11.4218 5.8777
Marcus Giles 5.3962 9.5041
M. Grudzielanek 2.9743 4.6208
Luis Rivas 2.8318 3.3745
Jeff Kent -1.0398 0.3507
Ruben A Gotay -3.3284 -2.4615
Freddy Sanchez -4.3134 -7.6142
Jamey Carroll -4.9527 -7.8197
Ray Durham -5.6227 -8.0889
Omar Infante -6.5930 -2.9612
Mark Loretta -7.5657 -9.2119
Nick Green -10.2911 -13.4471
T. Iguchi -10.4213 -8.0867
Jose Castillo -10.4329 -9.7739
Aaron Miles -11.1169 -10.4563
Miguel Cairo -11.6337 -12.9519
Craig Biggio -12.0756 -9.8803
Kazuo Matsui -15.6705 -22.4927
Mark Bellhorn -15.8286 -22.4950
Todd Walker -16.9739 -18.8789
Jose Vidro -19.0014 -18.5451
A. Soriano -29.1693 -34.0322
Rickie Weeks -29.1896 -30.2316
Bret Boone -31.2728 -30.5096
Robinson Cano -31.5155 -30.8828
Luis Gonzalez -32.0970 -35.2589
Jorge L Cantu -34.8677 -34.0372
Chone Figgins -60.1201 -58.1631
Deivi Cruz -60.9897 -60.4657
Original Method Alternative MethodOkay, these figures appear much more reasonable, particularly Orlando Hudson. If you check out Pinto's original post, he notes that Hudson did spectacularly well in chasing down popups. Many people feel that infield popups are elective plays that more than one infielder can catch, so there is a potential "ball-hog" factor in including them in range ratings such as this. For instance, last year I theorized that Adam Kennedy suffered in PMR by playing adjacent to a centerfielder-cum-first baseman, and the fact that he does slightly better in groundball-only vs. overall may support that assertion.
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Total Per 2000 GB Total Per 2000 GB
Craig Counsell 17.8101 18.5521 20.2534 21.0973
Chase Utley 15.8608 18.9383 13.9609 16.6697
Orlando Hudson 15.1429 18.8814 15.4483 19.2623
Adam Kennedy 13.5027 18.9912 12.6915 17.8502
Brian Roberts 12.2095 13.6878 18.1866 20.3886
Luis Castillo 12.0222 15.9340 10.5002 13.9168
Nick Punto 11.3629 27.6135 11.7153 28.4696
M. Grudzielanek 10.1357 10.6636 11.5833 12.1865
Junior Spivey 7.8627 20.9113 6.8462 18.2080
Ryan Freel 7.1022 26.3045 6.5636 24.3098
Mark Ellis 5.5520 8.3239 5.8741 8.8068
Jamey Carroll 5.5404 19.0722 5.2959 18.2304
Jeff Kent 4.7646 5.1930 5.1959 5.6631
Jose C Lopez 4.6993 15.2822 5.0228 16.3342
Ronnie Belliard 4.5376 5.0559 4.4333 4.9396
Placido Polanco 4.4024 6.2137 6.7298 9.4986
Tadahito Iguchi 4.0184 4.9095 3.1580 3.8582
Marcus Giles 3.6560 3.6450 6.0450 6.0269
Rich Aurilia 3.0527 7.6223 2.3349 5.8299
Tony Graffanino 2.6831 6.1470 2.1046 4.8216
Omar Infante 2.1570 4.8471 2.2734 5.1089
Nick Green 1.5109 3.1025 0.9027 1.8535
Luis Rivas -2.5301 -9.6567 -1.5019 -5.7325
Ray Durham -3.6643 -4.5918 -4.8112 -6.0290
Jose Vidro -3.7831 -8.5109 -3.7115 -8.3499
Ruben A Gotay -4.1369 -7.9099 -4.8471 -9.2679
Kazuo Matsui -4.9006 -12.3909 -7.2887 -18.4291
Luis A Gonzalez -4.9293 -10.8694 -4.5552 -10.0444
Mark Bellhorn -5.5335 -10.4802 -7.4916 -14.1886
Todd Walker -5.8110 -10.2305 -7.5572 -13.3050
Aaron Miles -6.0267 -13.8705 -6.0835 -14.0011
Freddy Sanchez -6.0782 -23.2881 -6.0600 -23.2172
Miguel Cairo -6.4910 -13.4390 -8.4008 -17.3929
Craig Biggio -6.6253 -7.6815 -5.3616 -6.2164
Jose Castillo -11.5033 -17.7931 -10.4798 -16.2101
Jorge L Cantu -12.2341 -26.7413 -12.1495 -26.5563
Mark Loretta -12.7197 -20.5820 -13.3643 -21.6250
Rickie Weeks -13.0999 -23.3718 -12.4126 -22.1457
Robinson Cano -17.4071 -19.9280 -15.2769 -17.4893
Bret Boone -20.5162 -37.2682 -21.6538 -39.3349
A. Soriano -21.5808 -20.2067 -24.1334 -22.5968
At this point, I am bound to believe that the groundball-only figures are a more reliable representation of a defender's range, though I have no opinion as to which PMR model is more accurate.
Tuesday, January 24, 2006
PMR REDUX -- SHORTSTOPS
UPDATE: David Pinto just posted that there was a data error and he'll be re-posting his 2B and SS figures. So I'll update these two posts once the corrected info has been been posted.
UPDATE TWO: Okay, the new figures are up.
David Pinto has starting posting his Probabilistic Model of Range figures for individual players for the 2005 season. Last season, I built on the work of others to convert these figures into a Fielding Runs measure. I have used that same exact method for the new batch of PMR numbers, which you can see below.
Note that David has two different models that he's using, so I'll present the conversion for both. As a further caveat, note that David's method bases "average" on a multi-year sample, so a group of shortstops for any one year may be well below or above average. As I described last year, I try to determine what the average was for the season in question. As I'm going off the following players only, it's likely not exactly the average, but it's probably pretty close.
1. Pinto says (in his original post), "Cristian Guzman, who was near the top of the list last year, fell off in 2005. His ability to catch line drives did not hold up, indicating his good range rating was somewhat lucky." Whether or not range models should include line drives for infielders was a matter of debate after PMR figures were released last season, and this will add fuel to the fire. See more below after the groundball figures.
2. Jhonny Peralta did very well by Zone Rating (converting to around 10 runs better than average by Chris Dial's translation) and 18 runs above average by Clay Davenport's figures at Baseball Prospectus. PMR comes to a very different conclusion, obviously, so there's an item of interest.
3.Yeah, I think Derek Jeter's an overrated defender, too (by the media, anyway), but -45 runs? Really? That is a buttload of runs. I find that difficult to fathom.Okay, that's been fixed.
4. I'm not really clear on the difference between Pinto's two methods. As you can see, most players come out the same. Angel Berroa, however, is nearly seven runs off. He doesn't really shake out all that well either way, though ...
I also present the above numbers prorated per 4000 Balls in Play, roughly the number of Balls in Play for which a defender will be on the field in around 150-155 games or so.
UPDATE: David has now posted groundball-only figures, which were corrected here. To wit:
UPDATE: David Pinto just posted that there was a data error and he'll be re-posting his 2B and SS figures. So I'll update these two posts once the corrected info has been been posted.
UPDATE TWO: Okay, the new figures are up.
David Pinto has starting posting his Probabilistic Model of Range figures for individual players for the 2005 season. Last season, I built on the work of others to convert these figures into a Fielding Runs measure. I have used that same exact method for the new batch of PMR numbers, which you can see below.
Note that David has two different models that he's using, so I'll present the conversion for both. As a further caveat, note that David's method bases "average" on a multi-year sample, so a group of shortstops for any one year may be well below or above average. As I described last year, I try to determine what the average was for the season in question. As I'm going off the following players only, it's likely not exactly the average, but it's probably pretty close.
Original Method Alternative MethodA few comments:
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Total Total
Julio Lugo 30.3060 30.6745
Clint Barmes 21.6215 23.2271
Rafael Furcal 18.6187 17.3270
Adam Everett 17.1248 16.1343
Omar Infante 13.3182 13.8870
Jason Bartlett 12.5500 14.1624
Juan Castro 8.8689 8.7269
Alex Gonzalez 7.9299 7.6025
Jimmy Rollins 7.1464 10.9119
John McDonald 6.7196 8.3421
Wilson Valdez 6.4422 5.1605
Neifi Perez 6.2213 7.4977
Omar Vizquel 4.7362 0.7711
Bobby Crosby 4.6608 3.4797
Y. Betancourt 4.4671 3.6534
Edgar Renteria 2.3882 4.4775
Jack Wilson 2.3709 -1.5266
Miguel Tejada 0.8588 1.1615
Juan Uribe 0.3001 1.2196
Bill Hall -0.1360 0.9690
Carlos Guillen -0.7786 -1.8993
Oscar M Robles -1.2426 -2.4077
David Eckstein -1.6618 -0.1098
J.J. Hardy -2.8563 -2.7983
Khalil Greene -3.7904 -2.5383
Orlando Cabrera -5.1198 -6.6749
Cesar Izturis -5.2704 -4.1645
Cristian Guzman -5.7870 -6.7124
Mike Morse -5.8071 -4.5081
Marco Scutaro -9.6736 -10.0283
Derek Jeter -13.2134 -14.3688
Russ M Adams -13.4525 -13.4673
Royce Clayton -13.8171 -18.4288
Jhonny Peralta -15.0402 -14.8627
Felipe Lopez -18.5375 -21.2106
Angel Berroa -18.5556 -10.7785
Michael Young -19.2755 -17.3725
Jose Reyes -22.9404 -25.8656
1. Pinto says (in his original post), "Cristian Guzman, who was near the top of the list last year, fell off in 2005. His ability to catch line drives did not hold up, indicating his good range rating was somewhat lucky." Whether or not range models should include line drives for infielders was a matter of debate after PMR figures were released last season, and this will add fuel to the fire. See more below after the groundball figures.
2. Jhonny Peralta did very well by Zone Rating (converting to around 10 runs better than average by Chris Dial's translation) and 18 runs above average by Clay Davenport's figures at Baseball Prospectus. PMR comes to a very different conclusion, obviously, so there's an item of interest.
3.
4. I'm not really clear on the difference between Pinto's two methods. As you can see, most players come out the same. Angel Berroa, however, is nearly seven runs off. He doesn't really shake out all that well either way, though ...
I also present the above numbers prorated per 4000 Balls in Play, roughly the number of Balls in Play for which a defender will be on the field in around 150-155 games or so.
Original Method Alternative Method
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Per 4000 BIP Per 4000 BIP
Omar Infante 43.2060 45.0511
Clint Barmes 39.1516 42.0591
Jason Bartlett 28.4258 32.0780
Julio Lugo 28.2113 28.5543
John McDonald 21.9774 27.2839
Wilson Valdez 21.5098 17.2305
Juan Castro 19.9862 19.6663
Adam Everett 18.2762 17.2191
Rafael Furcal 18.1160 16.8591
Y. Betancourt 12.5303 10.2480
Alex Gonzalez 9.6383 9.2404
Bobby Crosby 8.6191 6.4349
Neifi Perez 8.2239 9.9110
Jimmy Rollins 7.1572 10.9283
Omar Vizquel 4.7079 0.7665
Edgar Renteria 2.3192 4.3482
Jack Wilson 2.2367 -1.4402
Miguel Tejada 0.8026 1.0855
Juan Uribe 0.3043 1.2363
Bill Hall -0.3758 2.6786
Carlos Guillen -1.6102 -3.9282
David Eckstein -1.6178 -0.1069
Oscar M Robles -3.7855 -7.3348
J.J. Hardy -4.0731 -3.9905
Khalil Greene -4.8549 -3.2511
Orlando Cabrera -5.5260 -7.2044
Cristian Guzman -6.4210 -7.4479
Cesar Izturis -7.3738 -5.8265
Derek Jeter -12.4920 -13.5843
Royce Clayton -14.8931 -19.8640
Russ M Adams -15.6743 -15.6915
Jhonny Peralta -16.1030 -15.9130
Mike Morse -16.1646 -12.5487
Angel Berroa -16.7243 -9.7148
Michael Young -17.5311 -15.8004
Felipe Lopez -19.4926 -22.3035
Marco Scutaro -19.5426 -20.2593
Jose Reyes -21.3003 -24.0164
UPDATE: David has now posted groundball-only figures, which were corrected here. To wit:
Original Method Alternative Method
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Total Per 2000 GB Total Per 2000 GB
Rafael Furcal 22.8501 22.2928 21.8263 21.2939
Adam Everett 14.1594 15.2662 14.2795 15.3957
Julio Lugo 13.2646 14.6327 15.2485 16.8213
Clint Barmes 12.7294 24.4327 11.9875 23.0087
Neifi Perez 11.0532 14.2898 11.8922 15.3745
Jason Bartlett 9.4244 22.7918 11.4019 27.5741
Juan Castro 9.1198 20.4709 8.5606 19.2156
Jack Wilson 8.5939 8.6328 8.3519 8.3897
Carlos Guillen 8.2124 17.2893 7.0146 14.7677
Jimmy Rollins 8.0040 8.3636 10.1397 10.5953
Bobby Crosby 7.5397 15.0945 7.9313 15.8786
Omar Infante 6.9832 24.6321 6.6027 23.2898
John McDonald 6.7182 21.9907 6.9146 22.6338
Cesar Izturis 5.3243 7.2737 6.3308 8.6487
Alex Gonzalez 3.6172 4.4990 4.2075 5.2332
Miguel Tejada 3.0328 2.9373 2.8896 2.7986
Wilson Valdez 2.9356 10.9741 1.5425 5.7662
Khalil Greene 1.7908 2.5276 1.5601 2.2020
Y. Betancourt 1.4873 4.6696 1.0366 3.2546
Edgar Renteria 0.7811 0.8408 4.2835 4.6109
David Eckstein -0.1372 -0.1242 2.1914 1.9841
J.J. Hardy -1.0394 -1.6591 -1.5330 -2.4469
Bill Hall -1.0622 -3.3720 0.1990 0.6317
Cristian Guzman -2.9543 -3.7278 -1.1848 -1.4950
Omar Vizquel -3.0723 -3.3595 -6.9121 -7.5584
Orlando Cabrera -3.2899 -4.0072 -4.5319 -5.5200
Oscar M Robles -4.1598 -13.9122 -5.8792 -19.6628
Marco Scutaro -4.9382 -10.7235 -4.3544 -9.4558
Royce Clayton -6.7640 -7.3322 -11.1871 -12.1270
Mike Morse -7.8776 -26.1280 -7.2123 -23.9213
Juan Uribe -10.1849 -11.1922 -9.3474 -10.2718
Derek Jeter -10.7470 -10.2941 -15.3193 -14.6736
Felipe Lopez -12.2765 -14.3837 -14.0356 -16.4447
Russ M Adams -14.3640 -17.4532 -14.9092 -18.1156
Angel Berroa -15.0073 -14.3748 -15.3042 -14.6592
Jose Reyes -15.2780 -15.0374 -13.7785 -13.5615
Jhonny Peralta -18.9201 -21.8856 -16.5715 -19.1688
Michael Young -25.7148 -24.0438 -24.1380 -22.5694
Monday, January 23, 2006
CRAZY TALK
Not much going on in Haloland, but Rob links to this item on the Tigers that has a somewhat bizarre development: "Because his days as a closer are over, Troy Percival has suggested to the Tigers that he'd consider starting -- the difference being he'd have substantial rest between appearances."
Troy Percival? Starting? Are you kidding me? The only time Troy has been a starting pitcher in his life were on rehab trips to Lake Elsinore, where he'd pitch the first inning and go. The guy has 1.5 pitches (I'm not sure his curve is consistent enough at this point in his career to really count), there's no way he can face a lineup more than once without polishing his curve and developing a change or split-finger.
In other former Halo news, Bengie Molina has one less suitor now that Chavez Ravine appears to have withdrawn from the courting process. Bengie now intimates that he's willing to sit out this season if he doesn't get an offer he appreciates (which the Daily News reports is believed to be in the range of $6M per). I think there's a decent chance he could be worth that much for a year, maybe even two; the problem with Bengie isn't the money, it's the years.
If Bengie doesn't sign with anyone, the Angels will have a window of negotiation re-open on May 1. In the unlikely event that no one picks up a catcher who has a good reputation for working with pitchers and has posted an OPS+ of 100 the last three years (pretty good for a catcher), and in the possible event that Jeff Mathis struggles for the first month of the season, how tempted might the Angels be to sign the elder Molina to a one-year deal? That would seem to be a better option for Bengie than just sitting out 2006.
I'd have to imagine someone will give him a shot, though. But, youneverknow ...
Not much going on in Haloland, but Rob links to this item on the Tigers that has a somewhat bizarre development: "Because his days as a closer are over, Troy Percival has suggested to the Tigers that he'd consider starting -- the difference being he'd have substantial rest between appearances."
Troy Percival? Starting? Are you kidding me? The only time Troy has been a starting pitcher in his life were on rehab trips to Lake Elsinore, where he'd pitch the first inning and go. The guy has 1.5 pitches (I'm not sure his curve is consistent enough at this point in his career to really count), there's no way he can face a lineup more than once without polishing his curve and developing a change or split-finger.
In other former Halo news, Bengie Molina has one less suitor now that Chavez Ravine appears to have withdrawn from the courting process. Bengie now intimates that he's willing to sit out this season if he doesn't get an offer he appreciates (which the Daily News reports is believed to be in the range of $6M per). I think there's a decent chance he could be worth that much for a year, maybe even two; the problem with Bengie isn't the money, it's the years.
If Bengie doesn't sign with anyone, the Angels will have a window of negotiation re-open on May 1. In the unlikely event that no one picks up a catcher who has a good reputation for working with pitchers and has posted an OPS+ of 100 the last three years (pretty good for a catcher), and in the possible event that Jeff Mathis struggles for the first month of the season, how tempted might the Angels be to sign the elder Molina to a one-year deal? That would seem to be a better option for Bengie than just sitting out 2006.
I'd have to imagine someone will give him a shot, though. But, youneverknow ...
Wednesday, January 18, 2006
SIGNINGS
As you know, the Angels have wrapped up several arbitration-eligible players in the past few days, including K-Rod, Scot Shields, John Lackey, Legs Figgins, and others.
All of these signings struck me as a appropriate and fair. For each one of them, their actual performance is "worth" more in wins than what they're getting paid, which is what happens when you have productive players in their pre-free agent years.
Here are the seven arb-eligible players the Angels have, along with how many Win Shares they produced in 2005 (per The Hardball Times) and Wins Above Replacement (from Baseball Prospectus)
That WARP figure seems wacky to me, but I think this illustrates how important our inexpensive players were in 2005. And the good news is that this group of players will make just a bit over $15M or $16M in 2006, for a team with a likely payroll in the neighborhood of $90M-$100M. So they will continue to provide good value for their money, provided they stay healthy and productive.
This is, of course, a huge boon to the Angels, to be spending 15% of their money on roughly 40% of their wins. It's because of that that we haven't really been burned by overpaying the likes of Garret Anderson, Darin Erstad, and Orlando Cabrera. And with pre-arb guys like Casey Kotchman, Dallas McPherson, and Jeff Mathis scheduled to make greater contributions this year than in the past, this trend should continue.
This is a credit to the Angels farm system and minor league scouting (note that only three of the seven current arb-eligible players were actually Angel draftees), both of which have been a strength in the reign of Bill Stoneman. I'm as eager as anyone to point out when I think he's made a mistake, but credit should be given out when its due, and this is one aspect of team management at which the Angels have excelled in recent years.
As you know, the Angels have wrapped up several arbitration-eligible players in the past few days, including K-Rod, Scot Shields, John Lackey, Legs Figgins, and others.
All of these signings struck me as a appropriate and fair. For each one of them, their actual performance is "worth" more in wins than what they're getting paid, which is what happens when you have productive players in their pre-free agent years.
Here are the seven arb-eligible players the Angels have, along with how many Win Shares they produced in 2005 (per The Hardball Times) and Wins Above Replacement (from Baseball Prospectus)
Player Win Shares WARPThe team had 285 Win Shares total (all teams receive three Win Shares per win), so these guys accounted for nearly 30% of the team's wins by this measure. Clay Davenport's WARP method is even more generous to these guys: the team as a whole had 68 Wins Above Replacement, so these players accounted for 46% of the team's wins by that metric.
Figgins 22 5.9
Lackey 17 6.1
Shields 12 6.1
K-Rod 11 6.2
Rivera 9 1.7
Donnelly 7 2.6
J. Molina 7 2.8
TOTAL 85 31.4
That WARP figure seems wacky to me, but I think this illustrates how important our inexpensive players were in 2005. And the good news is that this group of players will make just a bit over $15M or $16M in 2006, for a team with a likely payroll in the neighborhood of $90M-$100M. So they will continue to provide good value for their money, provided they stay healthy and productive.
This is, of course, a huge boon to the Angels, to be spending 15% of their money on roughly 40% of their wins. It's because of that that we haven't really been burned by overpaying the likes of Garret Anderson, Darin Erstad, and Orlando Cabrera. And with pre-arb guys like Casey Kotchman, Dallas McPherson, and Jeff Mathis scheduled to make greater contributions this year than in the past, this trend should continue.
This is a credit to the Angels farm system and minor league scouting (note that only three of the seven current arb-eligible players were actually Angel draftees), both of which have been a strength in the reign of Bill Stoneman. I'm as eager as anyone to point out when I think he's made a mistake, but credit should be given out when its due, and this is one aspect of team management at which the Angels have excelled in recent years.
Tuesday, January 10, 2006
CATCH-UP ROUND-UP
Very little has been going on as I've tried to re-join the world of the living. However, Josh links to this Steve Bisheff article in The OC Register (registration required) that says it's official that Darin Erstad is moving to center. What's more, The Legs will move to third, and Dallas McPherson might DH.
This isn't just idle columnist speculation; Mike Scioscia is quoted as saying "It's our plan to start spring training by playing Erstad in center field. We want to give it a long look. We think it gives us a lot more versatility."
Bisheff goes on to send a little snark the Angels' way, saying their offseason moves aren't gonna cut it. Well, we could be a lot worse off than:
Figgins, 3B
Cabrera, SS
Garret, LF
Vlad, RF
Rivera/McPherson, DH
Kotchman, 1B
Erstad, CF
Mathis, C
Kennedy, 2B
Just guessing at what the lineup would be. I would prefer switching O-Cab and Kotchman ... either way, that's a pretty unspectacular offense, but Kotch and a healthy McPherson should make it an improvement on last year. All-in-all, I'd say this is good news.
***
There's been typical shifting in the Angel minor league staff this offseason. With former AAA manager Dino Ebel joining the big club as third-base coach, the Angels' Parallel Universe Catcher of the Eighties, Brian Harper (just imagine Bob Boone with a goatee for the full effect) will take over the Salt Lake helm. Charles Nagy will be the pitching coach at AAA, so let's hope catastrophic arm injuries aren't contagious.
Ken Patterson, a former Angel lefty who is not Bob Patterson (a former Angel lefty), will be the pitching coach at AA Arkansas, and Eric Owens, a pretty sorry fourth outfielder for the Lads a few years ago, will be the hitting coach at Low-A Cedar Rapids. Tyrone Boykin moves up from managing Rancho Cucamonga to the Arkansas team, which is where he managed before being moved to Rancho last year.
With our former roving pitching instructor, Mike Butcher (middle name: Dana), off to Tampa Bay and Joe Maddon, Keith Comstock takes the position (he was at Arkansas last year, and originally drafted by the Angels in 1976). Rob Picciolo, whom I'm shocked to discover played with the Angels in 1984, is the new roving infield instructor, and former Angel Craig Grebeck (aka David Eckstein 1.0*) moves from being the hitting coach at Mesa to being the hitting coach at Rancho.
A few other former Angels have minor league jobs: Jim Eppard, a singles-hitting lefty first-baseman in the late 1980s, is the hitting coach at Salt Lake; Keith Johnson, who served a short stint as Mike Scioscia's laundryman in 2000 (Keith had played for Mike in the Dodger system), is the hitting coach at Arkansas; and Erik Bennett, who threw one-third of an inning for the 1995 Halo squad, is the pitching coach at Rancho.
Not much commentary on that stuff, just an FYI about a lot of former Angels still getting paychecks from baseball teams.
*I ran a version of this chart last year when the Angels first signed Grebeck to coach, so here's the update:
Very little has been going on as I've tried to re-join the world of the living. However, Josh links to this Steve Bisheff article in The OC Register (registration required) that says it's official that Darin Erstad is moving to center. What's more, The Legs will move to third, and Dallas McPherson might DH.
This isn't just idle columnist speculation; Mike Scioscia is quoted as saying "It's our plan to start spring training by playing Erstad in center field. We want to give it a long look. We think it gives us a lot more versatility."
Bisheff goes on to send a little snark the Angels' way, saying their offseason moves aren't gonna cut it. Well, we could be a lot worse off than:
Figgins, 3B
Cabrera, SS
Garret, LF
Vlad, RF
Rivera/McPherson, DH
Kotchman, 1B
Erstad, CF
Mathis, C
Kennedy, 2B
Just guessing at what the lineup would be. I would prefer switching O-Cab and Kotchman ... either way, that's a pretty unspectacular offense, but Kotch and a healthy McPherson should make it an improvement on last year. All-in-all, I'd say this is good news.
***
There's been typical shifting in the Angel minor league staff this offseason. With former AAA manager Dino Ebel joining the big club as third-base coach, the Angels' Parallel Universe Catcher of the Eighties, Brian Harper (just imagine Bob Boone with a goatee for the full effect) will take over the Salt Lake helm. Charles Nagy will be the pitching coach at AAA, so let's hope catastrophic arm injuries aren't contagious.
Ken Patterson, a former Angel lefty who is not Bob Patterson (a former Angel lefty), will be the pitching coach at AA Arkansas, and Eric Owens, a pretty sorry fourth outfielder for the Lads a few years ago, will be the hitting coach at Low-A Cedar Rapids. Tyrone Boykin moves up from managing Rancho Cucamonga to the Arkansas team, which is where he managed before being moved to Rancho last year.
With our former roving pitching instructor, Mike Butcher (middle name: Dana), off to Tampa Bay and Joe Maddon, Keith Comstock takes the position (he was at Arkansas last year, and originally drafted by the Angels in 1976). Rob Picciolo, whom I'm shocked to discover played with the Angels in 1984, is the new roving infield instructor, and former Angel Craig Grebeck (aka David Eckstein 1.0*) moves from being the hitting coach at Mesa to being the hitting coach at Rancho.
A few other former Angels have minor league jobs: Jim Eppard, a singles-hitting lefty first-baseman in the late 1980s, is the hitting coach at Salt Lake; Keith Johnson, who served a short stint as Mike Scioscia's laundryman in 2000 (Keith had played for Mike in the Dodger system), is the hitting coach at Arkansas; and Erik Bennett, who threw one-third of an inning for the 1995 Halo squad, is the pitching coach at Rancho.
Not much commentary on that stuff, just an FYI about a lot of former Angels still getting paychecks from baseball teams.
*I ran a version of this chart last year when the Angels first signed Grebeck to coach, so here's the update:
Grebeck EcksteinEck actually put some distance between he and Grebeck with a solid 2005 campaign. But last year they were nearly identical, I swear!
Inches 67 66
Pounds 148 170
AVG .261 .282
OBP .340 .351
SLG .356 .362
OPS+ 87 89
BB/SO .832 .926
AB/SH 40.6 45.8
Wednesday, January 04, 2006
UNDER THE WEATHER
Sorry for the silence of the past week; I've been a bit sick, and critical thinking isn't at the top of the list of things I'm up for. Hopefully it should clear up in a couple of days, and then posting will be back to normal.
Sorry for the silence of the past week; I've been a bit sick, and critical thinking isn't at the top of the list of things I'm up for. Hopefully it should clear up in a couple of days, and then posting will be back to normal.
