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Thursday, January 26, 2006

PMR REDUX -- CENTER FIELDERS
The CF figures are up, so here we go (in the interests of space I've combined the two different lists I posted for other positions):
                   Original Method            Alternative Method
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Total Per 4000 BIP Total Per 4000 BIP
Andruw Jones 18.1341 16.8337 22.5922 20.9721
Aaron Rowand 16.4488 15.9388 18.0039 17.4456
Jim Edmonds 14.4121 16.2940 17.0982 19.3309
Jason Ellison 12.8179 27.4619 13.5398 29.0087
Brady Clark 11.7481 12.4814 12.5370 13.3195
G. Matthews Jr. 10.2271 14.4963 10.3165 14.6230
Tike Redman 9.7009 24.0567 10.6247 26.3477
Joey Gathright 9.3279 23.5109 10.4651 26.3771
Luis Matos 7.5325 9.9867 5.9460 7.8833
Nook Logan 6.9303 10.1543 5.0152 7.3483
Jason Michaels 6.7838 16.7398 6.0941 15.0379
C. Granderson 5.4361 20.8278 5.1308 19.6583
Willy Taveras 5.1866 5.6901 3.5988 3.9482
Corey Patterson 4.2928 6.1347 3.8431 5.4921
Jerry Hairston 3.8810 14.1128 2.0351 7.4003
Carlos Beltran 2.7457 2.7685 2.0601 2.0773
Brad Wilkerson 1.3867 2.2978 1.4826 2.4567
Grady Sizemore 0.4807 0.4649 1.2899 1.2475
Randy Winn 0.2979 0.7435 0.6375 1.5908
Damon Hollins -0.3404 -0.6775 -0.3254 -0.6475
Laynce Nix -0.5761 -1.3767 0.2596 0.6203
Luis Terrero -1.0177 -3.1074 -1.7000 -5.1907
Jeremy Reed -1.5560 -1.6858 -1.0173 -1.1021
Milton Bradley -2.3054 -4.6833 -3.6439 -7.4025
Torii Hunter -2.7189 -4.2235 -1.5465 -2.4023
Chone Figgins -2.9706 -10.0359 -2.8761 -9.7165
Kenny Lofton -5.3194 -9.8188 -5.3191 -9.8183
Vernon Wells -5.4530 -5.1455 -5.3017 -5.0028
Dave Roberts -5.5436 -8.1674 -4.7668 -7.0229
Johnny Damon -5.9105 -5.9823 -5.7769 -5.8471
Juan Pierre -5.9177 -5.6751 -7.4272 -7.1227
Cory Sullivan -6.3627 -13.1528 -7.5302 -15.5662
Jason Repko -6.4408 -22.8396 -6.2372 -22.1176
David DeJesus -6.4854 -7.8516 -7.9603 -9.6371
Mark Kotsay -7.0839 -8.0522 -5.3062 -6.0315
Jose Cruz Jr. -7.1881 -21.8316 -7.4231 -22.5453
Lew Ford -8.0681 -19.2442 -7.1966 -17.1655
Steve Finley -10.8630 -16.1471 -10.8709 -16.1590
Preston Wilson -13.4858 -16.0450 -14.2096 -16.9061
B. Williams -15.2439 -22.6759 -17.1893 -25.5699
K. Griffey Jr. -26.9072 -31.2965 -28.9143 -33.6311
For the most part, this list seems to match popular perception, particularly at the top and bottom. Interesting that Mark Kotsay, who had a great defensive rep coming into 2005, rates poorly; he has rated poorly in every play-by-play defensive metric I've seen for 2005.

The only rating that jumps out as clearly wrong is Steve Finley, who seems overrated by about 20 runs.

Comments:
Given the craptitude of our centerfielders, and the so-so fielding -- or worse -- of Vladdie and G.A., our outfield defense must have been a real liability last year. Switching Erstad back to CF ought to pay real dividends next year.
 
In the interest of continuity, can I trouble you to update the CF and all previous tables to your newer and better opportunties rate?

Thanks for the interesting work!
 
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