Chronicles of the Lads

PMR RUNS, RIGHTFIELDERS
Pinto has posted his rightfield figures.

All the caveats I mentioned for centerfielders hold true for rightfielders, as well. Also note that Pinto's method does not attempt to measure what value a rightfielder creates from his arm, either by recording assists or holding runners.

So the following are the estimates of how this method sees 2004 RFs as preventing runs from range alone.

Player            Runs Above Average

                        Actual

Richard Hidalgo        15.6323

Jermaine Dye           15.3680

Sammy Sosa             14.4463

Karim Garcia            9.3199

Kevin Mench             8.8320

Jacque Jones            8.5935

Kevin Millar            7.5106

Gabe Kapler             6.5262

Bobby Higginson         6.1380

Juan Encarnacion        6.1276

Brian Jordan            5.8728

Brady Clark             5.7889

Craig Monroe            5.1555

Joe Borchard            4.6634

Jose Cruz               4.1840

Ichiro Suzuki           3.4024

Abraham Nunez           2.5287

Alexis I Rios           1.4301

Gary Matthews Jr.       1.2217

Reed Johnson            1.0269

Gary Sheffield          0.5615

Danny Bautista         -0.3596

Vladimir Guerrero      -0.7566

Jay Gibbons            -0.9479

J.D. Drew              -1.1741

Dustan Mohr            -1.3827

Timo Perez             -1.4944

Michael Tucker         -2.3227

Austin Kearns          -2.4653

Magglio Ordonez        -2.6845

Lance Berkman          -2.7134

Ben Grieve             -3.5882

Wily Mo Pena           -3.8127

Jody Gerut             -4.2726

Larry Walker           -4.9880

Brian Giles            -5.2353

Rob Mackowiak          -5.5902

Juan Rivera            -7.1247

Jeromy Burnitz         -8.1266

Reggie Sanders         -8.7332

Miguel Cabrera         -9.0731

Shawn Green           -10.9477

Craig A Wilson        -13.4916

Bobby Abreu           -16.3047

Matt Stairs           -16.7465

Before I get to the rates, I'll point out that even Pinto acknowledges there are a lot of surprises here. Sammy Sosa? Kevin Mench? Remember, it's a small sample size, and does not include arm ratings. But there are a ton of guys within a few runs of average, which makes intuitive sense.

Player           Runs Above Average

                    per 4000 BIP

Karim Garcia          27.3914

Kevin Mench           22.6901

Kevin Millar          22.4871

Brian Jordan          20.7520

Sammy Sosa            18.9152

Richard Hidalgo       17.7693

Jermaine Dye          17.0332

Craig Monroe          16.6042

Gabe Kapler           15.0809

Joe Borchard          13.3528

Brady Clark            9.7664

Jacque Jones           9.2182

Bobby Higginson        8.0898

Juan Encarnacion       7.8135

Abraham Nunez          6.1528

Jose Cruz              4.0861

Reed Johnson           3.4521

Gary Matthews Jr.      3.1901

Ichiro Suzuki          3.1390

Alexis I Rios          1.9128

Gary Sheffield         0.6126

Danny Bautista        -0.4078

Vladimir Guerrero     -0.8255

J.D. Drew             -1.2788

Jay Gibbons           -2.2248

Michael Tucker        -3.4743

Lance Berkman         -4.8214

Dustan Mohr           -4.8941

Brian Giles           -4.9739

Timo Perez            -5.2385

Jody Gerut            -5.4933

Austin Kearns         -6.2807

Magglio Ordonez       -9.4688

Ben Grieve            -9.6455

Larry Walker         -10.6751

Juan Rivera          -12.8429

Wily Mo Pena         -13.8140

Miguel Cabrera       -14.1876

Bobby Abreu          -15.3815

Rob Mackowiak        -17.6344

Reggie Sanders       -17.6693

Jeromy Burnitz       -19.1100

Craig A Wilson       -27.9762

Shawn Green          -34.8652

Matt Stairs          -45.1690

Last month, I explored Vlad vs. Miguel Tejada for MVP at obscene length. I was going off the premise that Vlad was roughly 25-30 runs better than Tejada offensively, and that Tejada was around a +20 defensively amongst SS and Vlad about average defensively amongst RF. As SS have a 10-run defensive advantage over RF, that starts Tejada off with a 10-run advantage. But, if we believe PMR, Tejada was -8 runs, which takes that advantage down to -2. Vlad being about -1 by this method gets Tejada's lead up to three runs, but when you add in the offense Vlad takes a large lead.

I don't know that I buy that Tejada was below average with the glove last year, but I can't really prove it the other way, either. It just shows to go you how much we still don't know.