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Thursday, February 03, 2005

PMR RUNS, RIGHTFIELDERS
Pinto has posted his rightfield figures.

All the caveats I mentioned for centerfielders hold true for rightfielders, as well. Also note that Pinto's method does not attempt to measure what value a rightfielder creates from his arm, either by recording assists or holding runners.

So the following are the estimates of how this method sees 2004 RFs as preventing runs from range alone.

Player            Runs Above Average

Actual
Richard Hidalgo 15.6323
Jermaine Dye 15.3680
Sammy Sosa 14.4463
Karim Garcia 9.3199
Kevin Mench 8.8320
Jacque Jones 8.5935
Kevin Millar 7.5106
Gabe Kapler 6.5262
Bobby Higginson 6.1380
Juan Encarnacion 6.1276
Brian Jordan 5.8728
Brady Clark 5.7889
Craig Monroe 5.1555
Joe Borchard 4.6634
Jose Cruz 4.1840
Ichiro Suzuki 3.4024
Abraham Nunez 2.5287
Alexis I Rios 1.4301
Gary Matthews Jr. 1.2217
Reed Johnson 1.0269
Gary Sheffield 0.5615
Danny Bautista -0.3596
Vladimir Guerrero -0.7566
Jay Gibbons -0.9479
J.D. Drew -1.1741
Dustan Mohr -1.3827
Timo Perez -1.4944
Michael Tucker -2.3227
Austin Kearns -2.4653
Magglio Ordonez -2.6845
Lance Berkman -2.7134
Ben Grieve -3.5882
Wily Mo Pena -3.8127
Jody Gerut -4.2726
Larry Walker -4.9880
Brian Giles -5.2353
Rob Mackowiak -5.5902
Juan Rivera -7.1247
Jeromy Burnitz -8.1266
Reggie Sanders -8.7332
Miguel Cabrera -9.0731
Shawn Green -10.9477
Craig A Wilson -13.4916
Bobby Abreu -16.3047
Matt Stairs -16.7465
Before I get to the rates, I'll point out that even Pinto acknowledges there are a lot of surprises here. Sammy Sosa? Kevin Mench? Remember, it's a small sample size, and does not include arm ratings. But there are a ton of guys within a few runs of average, which makes intuitive sense.

Player           Runs Above Average

per 4000 BIP
Karim Garcia 27.3914
Kevin Mench 22.6901
Kevin Millar 22.4871
Brian Jordan 20.7520
Sammy Sosa 18.9152
Richard Hidalgo 17.7693
Jermaine Dye 17.0332
Craig Monroe 16.6042
Gabe Kapler 15.0809
Joe Borchard 13.3528
Brady Clark 9.7664
Jacque Jones 9.2182
Bobby Higginson 8.0898
Juan Encarnacion 7.8135
Abraham Nunez 6.1528
Jose Cruz 4.0861
Reed Johnson 3.4521
Gary Matthews Jr. 3.1901
Ichiro Suzuki 3.1390
Alexis I Rios 1.9128
Gary Sheffield 0.6126
Danny Bautista -0.4078
Vladimir Guerrero -0.8255
J.D. Drew -1.2788
Jay Gibbons -2.2248
Michael Tucker -3.4743
Lance Berkman -4.8214
Dustan Mohr -4.8941
Brian Giles -4.9739
Timo Perez -5.2385
Jody Gerut -5.4933
Austin Kearns -6.2807
Magglio Ordonez -9.4688
Ben Grieve -9.6455
Larry Walker -10.6751
Juan Rivera -12.8429
Wily Mo Pena -13.8140
Miguel Cabrera -14.1876
Bobby Abreu -15.3815
Rob Mackowiak -17.6344
Reggie Sanders -17.6693
Jeromy Burnitz -19.1100
Craig A Wilson -27.9762
Shawn Green -34.8652
Matt Stairs -45.1690
Last month, I explored Vlad vs. Miguel Tejada for MVP at obscene length. I was going off the premise that Vlad was roughly 25-30 runs better than Tejada offensively, and that Tejada was around a +20 defensively amongst SS and Vlad about average defensively amongst RF. As SS have a 10-run defensive advantage over RF, that starts Tejada off with a 10-run advantage. But, if we believe PMR, Tejada was -8 runs, which takes that advantage down to -2. Vlad being about -1 by this method gets Tejada's lead up to three runs, but when you add in the offense Vlad takes a large lead.

I don't know that I buy that Tejada was below average with the glove last year, but I can't really prove it the other way, either. It just shows to go you how much we still don't know.

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