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Monday, November 27, 2006

PMR, RIGHTFIELDERS
Pinto.

The conversions are as follows. David has presented an alternative method of dealing with flyballs, using distance instead of velocity, so I will also present that. Players are sorted by the original method.
                   Original Method            Alternative Method
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Total Per 285 Opp Total Per 285 Opp
Reggie Sanders 16.3911 30.9922 4.8739 8.4560
Casey Blake 15.6340 23.2528 1.4971 2.0489
J.D. Drew 13.9413 14.8473 6.6347 6.8461
Alex Rios 10.8281 15.0340 6.0052 8.1136
J. Encarnacion 8.6676 11.8302 10.2412 14.1030
Carlos Quentin 8.6506 28.7245 6.8218 22.0984
Mark DeRosa 8.5060 21.0801 3.5045 8.2625
Jose Guillen 8.0722 14.8895 5.2057 9.3971
Vlad Guerrero 7.9616 9.3132 2.9005 3.3121
Damon Hollins 7.9616 18.2049 7.4768 17.0185
Kevin Mench 7.7149 21.3617 -6.2434 -14.9101
Jacque Jones 7.1876 7.6851 6.8984 7.3665
Austin Kearns 6.8984 5.8186 2.7815 2.3129
Ryan Freel 5.1546 15.4737 6.8984 21.1652
Jay Gibbons 4.5422 14.1232 -3.3939 -9.5778
Emil Brown 2.9686 7.9434 1.3525 3.5555
Moises Alou 2.6879 5.0786 5.2482 10.1180
Russell Branyan 0.7911 2.6194 -1.3950 -4.4852
Bobby Abreu 0.3402 0.3314 0.2127 0.2070
Trot Nixon 0.0425 0.0572 -1.9309 -2.5682
Joe Borchard -0.0510 -0.1730 1.7692 6.1552
Jay Payton -0.3573 -1.1386 5.4864 18.9414
Jeff Francoeur -0.7911 -0.7091 -1.3525 -1.2099
Brad Hawpe -0.9016 -0.9143 -1.1653 -1.1804
Ichiro Suzuki -1.0292 -1.1677 7.4938 8.8550
Randy Winn -1.4630 -2.2451 1.8203 2.8526
Jason Lane -1.4800 -2.6912 -2.2796 -4.1203
Shawn Green -1.9479 -2.4974 -5.8862 -7.3927
Milton Bradley -2.9005 -4.2521 0.7315 1.0965
Nick Markakis -3.6831 -4.2962 -0.5104 -0.6045
Jermaine Dye -4.7719 -4.3784 -0.2977 -0.2779
Bernie Williams -5.1121 -14.0078 -5.8181 -15.8161
Geoff Jenkins -5.9882 -6.7180 1.5141 1.7597
Jeromy Burnitz -7.3492 -16.2820 -14.7409 -30.5917
Jeremy Hermida -8.0297 -13.7494 -2.5943 -4.6197
Mike Cuddyer -12.0615 -13.2631 -5.8521 -6.6216
Xavier Nady -13.0057 -18.3233 -4.2190 -6.2638
M. Ordonez -19.7850 -20.0480 -9.1354 -9.6882
Brian Giles -29.3287 -25.1404 -17.4798 -15.6388
There are some ... stark differences for some of these players, though the correlation between the two methods is .75. This leads me to believe that velocity and distance are fairly strongly correlated, but mistaking one for the other can lead to some big mistakes. Let's see how both methods compare to zone rating:
Player            ZR-R   PMR-1   Diff   PMR-2   Diff
Alex Rios 11 11 0 6 5
Austin Kearns 5 7 2 3 2
Bernie Williams -7 -5 2 -6 1
Bobby Abreu -4 0 4 0 4
Brad Hawpe -9 -1 8 -1 8
Brian Giles 12 -29 41 -17 29
Casey Blake 4 16 12 1 3
Damon Hollins 3 8 5 7 4
Geoff Jenkins -2 -6 4 2 4
Ichiro Suzuki 7 -1 8 7 0
J.D. Drew 5 14 9 7 2
Jacque Jones 4 7 3 7 3
Jason Lane -8 -1 7 -2 6
Jeff Francoeur -1 -1 0 -1 0
Jeremy Hermida 4 -8 12 -3 7
Jermaine Dye -2 -5 3 0 2
Jeromy Burnitz -12 -7 5 -15 3
Juan Encarnacion 9 9 0 10 1
Kevin Mench -6 8 14 -6 0
Magglio Ordonez -2 -20 18 -9 7
Mark DeRosa 2 9 7 4 2
Michael Cuddyer -7 -12 5 -6 1
Milton Bradley 7 -3 10 1 6
Moises Alou -6 3 9 5 11
Nick Markakis -2 -4 2 -1 1
Randy Winn 2 -1 3 2 0
Reggie Sanders 6 16 10 5 1
Russell Branyan -5 1 6 -1 4
Trot Nixon 0 0 0 -2 2
Vladimir Guerrero -5 8 13 3 8
Xavier Nady 0 -13 13 -4 4
The original PMR correlates very poorly to ZR, only .165. The new, distance-based method correlates at .381. This does not surprise me, as distance, not velocity, is a parameter in the calculating of zone rating.

This is also not merely an artifact of the disagreement on Brian Giles. The distance-based PMR method is closer to ZR on nearly every player on the list. Take Giles out of the equation, and the original PMR correlates at .454, and the improved at an impressive .704.

I know that there is something unique and odd about Petco's rightfield, but I don't know if PMR is correct to downgrade Giles so far vis-a-vis what zone rating says.

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