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Wednesday, February 01, 2006

PMR REDUX -- FIRST BASEMEN
And our carousel ends at first base. David Pinto's post is here. This is for all batted balls, groundball-only data should be up soon.
                   Original Method            Alternative Method
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Total Per 275 Opp Total Per 275 Opp
Mark Teixeira 23.4241 21.3625 30.7860 29.1524
Tino Martinez 22.2137 43.2020 21.9689 42.9477
Ben Broussard 21.5710 32.6978 20.9677 31.8904
Darin Erstad 19.1292 19.7720 21.6972 22.8444
Travis Lee 16.1764 21.2909 17.4245 23.2495
Paul Konerko 14.5493 15.6499 11.6455 12.4306
Chad Tracy 12.9407 27.0932 14.7848 31.7245
D. Mientkiewicz 10.6688 22.2066 14.5886 31.7595
John Olerud 9.2801 28.2085 10.5332 32.7971
Jose Hernandez 7.4443 32.0171 8.5525 37.8671
Lance Niekro 6.8713 16.0942 7.4561 17.6807
Albert Pujols 6.3454 5.9176 6.5017 6.1046
Derrek Lee 6.1364 6.3478 9.2396 9.7637
Daryle Ward 5.7957 10.3777 3.7117 6.5857
Lyle Overbay 5.6757 6.2903 9.1814 10.4287
Ryan Howard 3.9601 7.6864 2.6112 5.0391
Kevin Millar 3.8594 5.2095 3.8947 5.2873
Hee Seop Choi 2.5479 4.5442 0.9112 1.6130
Todd Helton 0.2136 0.2111 3.3463 3.3747
Mark Sweeney 0.1937 0.7098 -0.0215 -0.0790
Eduardo Perez 0.1539 0.6619 1.8159 8.1333
Mike Lamb 0.0102 0.0349 0.2396 0.8281
J.T. Snow -1.0579 -1.5412 -0.9392 -1.3777
Chris Shelton -2.4437 -4.5866 -4.2316 -7.8760
Scott Hatteberg -2.5535 -7.0701 -1.3701 -3.8738
Nick Johnson -2.8246 -2.8048 -3.7584 -3.7364
Matt Stairs -2.8706 -7.4151 -3.9047 -10.0327
Mike Sweeney -3.2346 -8.0123 -3.8214 -9.4538
Brad Eldred -4.9597 -20.7977 -4.1761 -17.9303
S. Hillenbrand -5.2569 -11.1307 -8.5794 -17.7061
Tony Clark -6.0177 -13.3253 -4.2695 -9.6929
Dan Johnson -6.4859 -9.4487 -8.6779 -12.5331
Phil Nevin -6.7007 -13.1143 -6.5766 -12.9608
Justin Morneau -6.8595 -7.5046 -8.0609 -8.8211
Jim Thome -8.1217 -27.4754 -9.2533 -30.9834
Sean Casey -8.1312 -8.8804 -7.9345 -8.7290
Julio Franco -8.7127 -26.5926 -9.2791 -28.2775
Carlos Pena -10.0969 -26.2766 -12.5224 -31.8503
Eric Hinske -12.0196 -16.5867 -14.7704 -20.1510
Lance Berkman -12.3319 -22.3552 -13.3590 -24.1581
Richie Sexson -12.4157 -12.6790 -17.0889 -17.1927
Adam LaRoche -13.3216 -14.9011 -15.4928 -17.2373
R. Palmeiro -14.1075 -25.3003 -15.9478 -28.3567
Olmedo Saenz -15.9069 -47.6931 -15.7764 -47.7075
Jason Giambi -16.3347 -41.6316 -16.3322 -41.9283
Carlos Delgado -16.3502 -17.0218 -15.7177 -16.5115
Though the groundball-only figures will be of interest, a lot of what is presented here "seems" right, the one real surprise to me being Paul Konerko. Stay tuned.

UPDATE: The groundball numbers have been posted.
                   Original Method            Alternative Method
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Total Per 200 Opp Total Per 200 Opp
Mark Teixeira 17.1915 15.7057 23.2682 22.1391
Tino Martinez 17.0375 34.3221 15.8624 31.6835
Ben Broussard 10.5799 17.0616 10.5327 17.0846
D. Mientkiewicz 9.6507 22.5563 11.6756 28.2942
Darin Erstad 9.4631 10.3671 12.3451 13.8654
Chad Tracy 9.2302 20.7653 9.9839 22.8387
Albert Pujols 7.6027 6.8030 7.2079 6.4688
Lance Niekro 7.0740 19.4421 6.7786 18.6354
Daryle Ward 6.2248 11.4901 3.8322 6.9255
Derrek Lee 5.9749 6.4006 5.5827 5.9975
John Olerud 5.7296 18.4172 6.7979 22.4426
Lyle Overbay 5.2184 6.4809 6.6069 8.3400
Hee Seop Choi 4.3832 7.3181 4.0426 6.7563
Ryan Howard 3.0128 6.1543 2.0790 4.2179
Paul Konerko 3.0069 3.5547 2.1823 2.5784
Justin Morneau 2.1767 2.7440 0.8332 1.0451
S. Hillenbrand 1.9723 4.3606 -0.0001 -0.0003
Mike Lamb 0.8276 2.7509 1.0162 3.4094
Phil Nevin 0.1173 0.2348 0.0197 0.0395
Kevin Millar 0.0414 0.0553 1.2460 1.6888
Todd Helton -0.6065 -0.5765 1.1571 1.1169
Eric Hinske -0.8095 -1.1376 -1.1757 -1.6544
J.T. Snow -1.0734 -1.7031 -0.0389 -0.0626
Nick Johnson -1.6399 -1.7231 -1.3663 -1.4440
Scott Hatteberg -2.3564 -6.6191 -2.4035 -6.7762
Jim Thome -2.5053 -8.5797 -1.7212 -6.0287
Brad Eldred -2.5716 -12.6963 -2.4714 -12.3353
Matt Stairs -2.7475 -6.9664 -3.0372 -7.7057
Travis Lee -3.4624 -5.1413 -1.8940 -2.8682
Tony Clark -3.4770 -8.4743 -2.7332 -6.7797
Julio Franco -3.8024 -11.0649 -4.2348 -12.2889
Mike Sweeney -3.8190 -9.2247 -3.7440 -9.0918
Dan Johnson -4.5890 -7.6914 -5.6411 -9.4002
Carlos Pena -5.1028 -15.1329 -6.2060 -18.1251
Richie Sexson -5.2059 -5.3309 -8.3358 -8.4081
Chris Shelton -5.2952 -9.5719 -7.4251 -13.1733
Lance Berkman -8.2428 -14.1361 -7.1141 -12.4091
Sean Casey -8.6746 -9.8307 -9.4379 -10.6897
Jason Giambi -9.4387 -26.6028 -9.7405 -27.4807
Olmedo Saenz -9.4850 -27.9918 -9.2145 -27.4773
R. Palmeiro -10.4772 -19.5617 -11.0283 -20.5694
Adam LaRoche -13.3227 -15.2573 -16.1538 -18.2148
Carlos Delgado -17.7897 -18.3883 -17.9367 -18.6095

Comments:
Interesting that Kotchman didn't have enough innings at the position to qualify for the list (at least I think that's what happened...).
 
Kotchman had about 10% of the opportunities that Erstad did. Half of his time on the field was as DH.
 
Watching Mark Texeira, I always assumed he was a big clumsy ox. But his gold glove award and these statistics suggest otherwise.
 
This data confirms that Darin Erstad at first base is an excellent defender on pop flies, fair and foul. Erstad catches pop flies that "hurt" Adam Kennedy's defensive numbers. On ground balls only Kennedy's numbers go up and Erstad's go down.

In Ervin Santana's May 2005 shutout against the Chicago White Sox Erstad made two superb catches of foul pop-ups while draped over the Chisox dugout railing. Without those two plays Santana does not pitch a shutout. The first foulout hit by Tadahito Iguchi in the 1st inning was highlight-reel material.

Yetijuice
 
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