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Tuesday, February 08, 2005

PMR, 1B
David Pinto's first base numbers are up.

Again, and as with outfielders and thirdbasemen, we have a problem in that not every firstbaseman has an equal ability to prevent doubles vis-a-vis singles. Some 1B are likely better at diving down the line to prevent extra base hits, where others are likely better going into the hole to prevent singles.

With that in mind, here are the estimates on how the PMR data presented converts to runs.

Player            Runs Above Average

Actual
Jeff Conine 25.0754
Darin Erstad 23.5104
Kevin Millar 18.1228
Nick Johnson 11.8406
Ben Broussard 10.2713
Tino Martinez 8.6354
Todd Zeile 7.3886
Albert Pujols 6.7466
J.T. Snow 6.3631
Brad Wilkerson 5.7451
Hee Seop Choi 4.7755
Todd Helton 2.8661
Mark Teixeira 2.7710
Pedro Feliz 1.1715
Tony Clark 0.9626
Derrek Lee 0.4181
Jason Giambi -0.0911
Carlos Delgado -0.2085
Julio Franco -0.3547
Randall Simon -0.3839
Doug Mientkiewicz -0.6593
Craig A Wilson -0.9750
Daryle Ward -1.1445
Jim Thome -1.4644
Adam LaRoche -1.7168
John Olerud -2.0153
Shea Hillenbrand -2.5650
Carlos Pena -2.9199
Mike Sweeney -4.0695
Ken Harvey -4.4276
Justin Morneau -6.0726
Paul Konerko -6.7470
Lyle Overbay -7.0980
Phil Nevin -10.8437
Mike Piazza -11.0182
Jeff Bagwell -11.1313
Sean Casey -14.1295
Shawn Green -14.8519
Rafael Palmeiro -15.8615
Scott Hatteberg -15.9038
Some of these seem right on: Darin Erstad, Mike Piazza. But a few stick out ... Jeff Conine? Kevin Millar better than Doug Mientkiewicz? Really? David Pinto discusses this, so check him out on that, if you're curious.

Here's the above put in the context of 4000 balls in play:

Player            Runs Above Average

per 4000 BIP
Jeff Conine 70.0915
Kevin Millar 48.1985
Darin Erstad 29.7691
Todd Zeile 26.7941
Nick Johnson 25.8806
Ben Broussard 13.1722
Tino Martinez 11.5985
Brad Wilkerson 10.5945
J.T. Snow 9.9226
Hee Seop Choi 7.4265
Albert Pujols 6.7043
Pedro Feliz 2.9785
Mark Teixeira 2.8556
Todd Helton 2.6971
Tony Clark 2.0081
Derrek Lee 0.4151
Carlos Delgado -0.2565
Jason Giambi -0.3073
Julio Franco -0.7255
Doug Mientkiewicz -0.9038
Randall Simon -1.5117
Jim Thome -1.6366
John Olerud -2.5219
Daryle Ward -2.6315
Craig A Wilson -2.6902
Shea Hillenbrand -3.0613
Adam LaRoche -3.1248
Carlos Pena -3.2162
Lyle Overbay -6.8286
Paul Konerko -7.4269
Ken Harvey -8.6607
Mike Sweeney -10.3554
Jeff Bagwell -11.7237
Phil Nevin -11.8031
Sean Casey -14.2223
Justin Morneau -15.0039
Scott Hatteberg -16.4215
Rafael Palmeiro -18.1434
Shawn Green -21.2630
Mike Piazza -26.9397
You know, I think the whole Millar/Mientkiewicz thing is just sample size, which is the case with Conine, as well. Millar was only in the field (at 1B) for 1504 BIP, and Conine for 1431. 4000 is about a full season's worth, so combined these guys are barely over half a full season. Mientkiewicz did fare better than Millar in 2003.

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