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Tuesday, January 31, 2006

PMR REDUX -- RIGHTFIELDERS
David Pinto has posted his rightfield figures.
                   Original Method            Alternative Method
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Total Per 285 Opp Total Per 285 Opp
Dustan Mohr 16.7942 59.2298 14.9253 51.2928
Jose Cruz Jr 14.3267 45.0924 13.7038 42.8245
Ichiro! Suzuki 11.1130 8.7730 12.0305 9.5332
Vlad Guerrero 11.0270 13.9230 11.9377 15.1582
Nick Swisher 9.5688 15.1734 11.7123 18.8567
Mike Cameron 9.2092 21.4325 9.8921 23.1960
Jeff Francoeur 8.8589 21.5996 5.3913 12.7142
Brian Giles 8.5394 8.7699 14.5573 15.3547
Jason Lane 6.8018 9.2109 8.1402 11.1174
Geoff Jenkins 6.2193 6.0640 7.4925 7.3489
Gary Sheffield 6.1334 7.7373 5.0814 6.3814
Shawn Green 6.1182 7.9869 5.7484 7.4963
J.D. Drew 4.2428 16.0030 3.9558 14.8694
Jeromy Burnitz 2.9528 2.8845 0.8301 0.8047
Ryan Langerhans 2.8843 11.8584 3.4438 14.3093
Jay Gibbons 2.8668 6.4746 4.0248 9.1972
Chad Tracy 1.1147 3.8587 1.2555 4.3588
Jermaine Dye 0.2902 0.3280 0.1490 0.1684
Richard Hidalgo -0.2742 -0.4604 -1.1208 -1.8726
Raul Mondesi -0.3507 -1.5317 -1.8120 -7.7181
Trot Nixon -0.6690 -0.8121 1.9850 2.4442
Casey Blake -0.9998 -1.0142 1.1964 1.2259
Magglio Ordonez -1.2613 -2.6402 -1.3266 -2.7781
Jacque Jones -1.3024 -1.4460 0.0623 0.0697
Victor Diaz -1.3536 -2.5629 -1.8116 -3.4209
Kevin Mench -1.5225 -7.2655 -2.7008 -12.6103
Bobby Abreu -1.8052 -1.9709 -1.5969 -1.7468
Austin Kearns -1.9269 -2.3423 -0.7050 -0.8630
Larry Walker -3.6325 -9.6457 -5.0398 -13.1943
J. Encarnacion -3.8606 -5.1465 -5.7259 -7.5631
Michael Tucker -5.6989 -17.1074 -4.7777 -14.5212
Jose Guillen -6.0552 -5.7782 -8.1523 -7.7217
Sammy Sosa -6.4104 -14.6169 -5.3233 -12.2745
Aubrey Huff -7.4136 -10.1816 -8.9821 -12.2366
Moises Alou -8.4440 -24.7384 -8.2429 -24.2289
Craig Monroe -8.5540 -17.6493 -9.4930 -19.4488
Brad Hawpe -10.9847 -20.0207 -9.4310 -17.4082
Matt Lawton -13.6627 -16.2204 -12.9222 -15.4093
Wily Mo Pena -13.9625 -37.6045 -15.6143 -41.3267
Emil Brown -14.3117 -16.1481 -17.6617 -19.6394
Alexis Rios -14.6202 -16.2428 -15.0456 -16.6965
A few of these match popular perception (Ichiro! and Mike Cameron), but there are also big surprises like Vlad (who I think is closer to average) and Gary Sheffield (probably closer to bad). Also interesting to see Nick Swisher rate well; he did very well by UZR, to the surprise of many, but his solid PMR performance indicates that UZR might have been on to something.

Comments:
I'm shocked Vlad rates so highly. Having watched every Angel game the past two years, I've come to the conlclusion that he's no better than an average right fielder. In fact, whenever I hear him described as a "five-tool" player, I chuckle.
 
I don't think Vlad fields his position particularly well, either. His throwing sucks, too. I mean, does he ever throw to the cut-off man? Even Rex has called him out on this failing of his. Am I wrong or was Tim Salmon a better all-around defensive right fielder than Vladdie? Just wondering . . . .
 
I've been trying to convince folks of Vlad's ranginess for some time. He gets to balls all the time. It's just that when he fails he does so spectacularly, and it's usually an error of (in)attention, not lack of range.

His range numbers, by at least three different calculations, have been very high over the last two years.
 
I think he has poor instincts, but enough athleticism that he's around average. His arm is a mixed bag, incredibly strong and but also inaccurate, and I think that kind of balances out as well. I think he's average out there.

Salmon might have better fundamentals, but his range is gone at this point. He was superb in his day, though.
 
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