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Wednesday, February 02, 2005

PROBABILISTIC RUNS, 3B
David Pinto has published his 2004 PMR figures for third basemen. My attempt to convert this to runs is below.

You can read an explanation, as well as the shortstop figures, here. Note that like with the outfielders, there is some lack of confidence here as third basemen will differ in their ability to prevent doubles and singles, and that is not reflected here. A deeper explanation is in that link to the center field numbers. You can also find second basemen here.

Player          Runs Above Average

Total
Adrian Beltre 24.3637
Scott Rolen 23.4351
Chipper Jones 14.2803
Chone Figgins 13.4836
Eric Chavez 11.8403
Kevin Youkilis 11.5133
Joe Randa 11.2116
Alex Rodriguez 10.2874
Melvin Mora 9.4739
Pedro Feliz 8.7117
Ryan Freel 7.7310
Russell Branyan 7.5510
Bill Mueller 5.4551
Vinny Castilla 3.3685
Corey Koskie 2.9539
Casey Blake 2.8694
Mike Lamb 2.6622
David A Wright 2.0618
David Bell 1.0252
Todd Zeile 0.6792
Juan Castro -0.2693
Rob Mackowiak -0.8068
Mark DeRosa -1.2339
Geoff Blum -1.8195
Sean Burroughs -2.2803
Edgardo Alfonzo -2.3046
Scott Spiezio -2.5503
Chad A Tracy -3.1055
Ty Wigginton -3.1195
Morgan Ensberg -3.6513
Mike Lowell -4.7843
Chris Stynes -4.7948
Hank Blalock -5.0148
Keith Ginter -6.0239
Brandon Inge -6.6714
Desi Relaford -7.6884
Aubrey Huff -8.6763
Aramis Ramirez -9.3431
Eric Munson -9.5740
Mike Cuddyer -13.2103
Tony Batista -14.7281
Wes Helms -16.3313
Joe Crede -19.5914
Eric Hinske -27.3359


Player          Runs Above Average

per 4000 BIP
Pedro Feliz 31.7928
Kevin Youkilis 29.5955
Russell Branyan 27.0387
Chone Figgins 26.5539
Scott Rolen 25.5337
Ryan Freel 24.6781
Adrian Beltre 24.3742
Chipper Jones 23.4566
Eric Chavez 13.7781
Joe Randa 13.4133
Melvin Mora 10.2486
Alex Rodriguez 9.7655
Bill Mueller 8.9119
Mike Lamb 7.7938
David A Wright 4.4085
Corey Koskie 3.8965
Vinny Castilla 3.2679
Casey Blake 2.7868
Todd Zeile 2.4525
David Bell 1.0760
Juan Castro -0.8817
Rob Mackowiak -2.5055
Edgardo Alfonzo -2.7734
Sean Burroughs -2.7775
Mark DeRosa -2.8253
Chad A Tracy -3.9629
Ty Wigginton -4.3420
Hank Blalock -4.6046
Mike Lowell -4.8825
Morgan Ensberg -5.6981
Scott Spiezio -5.7104
Geoff Blum -5.9045
Aramis Ramirez -10.7905
Tony Batista -14.5768
Aubrey Huff -15.6772
Brandon Inge -15.7920
Chris Stynes -16.1596
Eric Munson -16.6666
Joe Crede -20.6243
Keith Ginter -20.9182
Eric Hinske -26.5350
Desi Relaford -29.6867
Wes Helms -38.5190
Mike Cuddyer -49.9933
Looking at the regulars, a lot of it comports with, shall we say, popular opinion. Beltre and Rolen grade quite well. Melvin Mora and Legs Figgins are kind of surprises, Mora because of his many errors and The Legs because of his inconsistency. But when I thought about it, Figgins did improve steadily as the year wore on, so it's not too shocking to see him do well here in a fairly small sample (2031 BIP, about half a season). A lot of the small sample guys -- Youkilis, Feliz -- seem out of place, but, hey, that's why we call it a small sample ...

... at every position we've looked at with PMR, there has been a similar difference between best and worst. The best full-time fielder at a position will be around +23 or +24 runs, and the worst full-time defender will be around -23 or -24.

I'm also going to back to David's 2003 numbers to do the same thing. I've only done 2B so far, so at some point I'll get to posting those, as well. Some have said that you really need two years of data to get a good read on a player's defense, so it's best not to get too carried away with one season. For instance, though Adam Kennedy came out at -2 in 2004, he was +16 in 2003, and were he healthy for 2005 I think starting with +8 or so (his Runs Above Average per 4000 BIP over the two years) would be the good starting point. But I'm getting ahead of myself ...

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