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Wednesday, January 25, 2006

PMR REDUX -- SECOND BASEMEN
UPDATE: David Pinto just posted that there was a data error and he'll be re-posting his 2B and SS figures. So I'll update these two posts once the corrected info has been been posted.

UPDATE II: And we're up!

NOTE: There's a lot of numbers here, as this is basically an infodump for people who like exploring this kind of thing. However, I also have some commentary, so if that's your bag, feel free to scroll down.

David Pinto has his second base figures up, so let's get some run conversion up and running:
            Original Method           Alternative Method
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Total Total
Orlando Hudson 56.7796 60.7262
Chase Utley 37.8226 40.9235
Craig Counsell 21.0285 21.6342
Nick Punto 19.7492 20.2515
Alex Cora 14.2475 13.0484
Mark Ellis 11.5307 13.7946
Luis Castillo 10.7936 10.1691
Ronnie Belliard 10.7707 5.5427
Brian Roberts 10.6068 16.0227
Adam Kennedy 10.3592 7.4501
Placido Polanco 9.3592 12.2912
Jose C Lopez 9.2068 12.1999
Ryan Freel 8.3460 7.1019
Rich Aurilia 7.7370 5.9489
Junior Spivey 7.2396 6.2272
Tony Graffanino 6.6305 5.7892
Marcus Giles 5.4475 9.5944
M. Grudzielanek 2.6211 4.0721
Luis Rivas 0.7596 0.9052
Jeff Kent -0.9600 0.3238
Freddy Sanchez -1.2822 -2.2633
Jamey Carroll -1.6715 -2.6392
Ruben A Gotay -1.8181 -1.3446
Omar Infante -2.9834 -1.3400
Ray Durham -5.0252 -7.2295
Mark Loretta -5.2430 -6.3838
Aaron Miles -5.4084 -5.0870
Miguel Cairo -5.9186 -6.5893
Nick Green -5.9868 -7.8229
Kazuo Matsui -6.5934 -9.4638
Jose Castillo -6.9431 -6.5045
Tadahito Iguchi -9.2046 -7.1426
Mark Bellhorn -9.2637 -13.1652
Todd Walker -9.6582 -10.7421
Jose Vidro -9.7952 -9.5600
Craig Biggio -10.4574 -8.5563
Luis Gonzalez -14.6924 -16.1398
Chone Figgins -15.0451 -14.5553
Deivi Cruz -15.9488 -15.8118
Rickie Weeks -18.4770 -19.1366
Jorge L Cantu -18.9070 -18.4567
Bret Boone -19.5846 -19.1066
Robinson Cano -28.0094 -27.4471
A. Soriano -32.1664 -37.5290
Comments:

1. According to PMR, the Yankee middle infield combined to be more than eight wins below average. This strikes me as extreme.Now that Jeter's numbers have been fixed, they're only about four wins below average, which is far more plausible.

2. But not as extreme as Orlando Hudson. Yeah, he's a great fielder. But close to 60 runs above average? He was only around five runs below average with the bat, but if he were really +60 on defense, he's probably the league MVP. Look at it this way: to be +60 on offense, Hudson would have had to have hit something like 349/465/601 (that's just one example, there are tons of combinations to get you there, I'm sure, and that's even with giving him an extra 65 plate appearances; hold the plate appearances constant, one such combo is 349/599/628). I think that's crazy. But that's just me. More on this in the groundball-only section below.

Here are the numbers for everyone prorated to a full season:

            Original Method           Alternative Method
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Per 4000 BIP Per 4000 BIP
Orlando Hudson 68.4504 73.2082
Alex Cora 56.6499 51.8821
Nick Punto 45.3483 46.5016
Chase Utley 43.3496 46.9038
Ryan Freel 27.4538 23.3615
Jose C Lopez 26.1928 34.7081
Craig Counsell 21.5235 22.1434
Rich Aurilia 17.2701 13.2788
Junior Spivey 16.3884 14.0967
Mark Ellis 16.0149 19.1592
Luis Castillo 14.0725 13.2582
Tony Graffanino 13.9078 12.1432
Adam Kennedy 12.6447 9.0938
Placido Polanco 12.4748 16.3827
Brian Roberts 11.4886 17.3547
Ronnie Belliard 11.4218 5.8777
Marcus Giles 5.3962 9.5041
M. Grudzielanek 2.9743 4.6208
Luis Rivas 2.8318 3.3745
Jeff Kent -1.0398 0.3507
Ruben A Gotay -3.3284 -2.4615
Freddy Sanchez -4.3134 -7.6142
Jamey Carroll -4.9527 -7.8197
Ray Durham -5.6227 -8.0889
Omar Infante -6.5930 -2.9612
Mark Loretta -7.5657 -9.2119
Nick Green -10.2911 -13.4471
T. Iguchi -10.4213 -8.0867
Jose Castillo -10.4329 -9.7739
Aaron Miles -11.1169 -10.4563
Miguel Cairo -11.6337 -12.9519
Craig Biggio -12.0756 -9.8803
Kazuo Matsui -15.6705 -22.4927
Mark Bellhorn -15.8286 -22.4950
Todd Walker -16.9739 -18.8789
Jose Vidro -19.0014 -18.5451
A. Soriano -29.1693 -34.0322
Rickie Weeks -29.1896 -30.2316
Bret Boone -31.2728 -30.5096
Robinson Cano -31.5155 -30.8828
Luis Gonzalez -32.0970 -35.2589
Jorge L Cantu -34.8677 -34.0372
Chone Figgins -60.1201 -58.1631
Deivi Cruz -60.9897 -60.4657
You think we're done? David Pinto has also posted groundball-only figures, and these will actually be interesting:
                   Original Method            Alternative Method
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Total Per 2000 GB Total Per 2000 GB
Craig Counsell 17.8101 18.5521 20.2534 21.0973
Chase Utley 15.8608 18.9383 13.9609 16.6697
Orlando Hudson 15.1429 18.8814 15.4483 19.2623
Adam Kennedy 13.5027 18.9912 12.6915 17.8502
Brian Roberts 12.2095 13.6878 18.1866 20.3886
Luis Castillo 12.0222 15.9340 10.5002 13.9168
Nick Punto 11.3629 27.6135 11.7153 28.4696
M. Grudzielanek 10.1357 10.6636 11.5833 12.1865
Junior Spivey 7.8627 20.9113 6.8462 18.2080
Ryan Freel 7.1022 26.3045 6.5636 24.3098
Mark Ellis 5.5520 8.3239 5.8741 8.8068
Jamey Carroll 5.5404 19.0722 5.2959 18.2304
Jeff Kent 4.7646 5.1930 5.1959 5.6631
Jose C Lopez 4.6993 15.2822 5.0228 16.3342
Ronnie Belliard 4.5376 5.0559 4.4333 4.9396
Placido Polanco 4.4024 6.2137 6.7298 9.4986
Tadahito Iguchi 4.0184 4.9095 3.1580 3.8582
Marcus Giles 3.6560 3.6450 6.0450 6.0269
Rich Aurilia 3.0527 7.6223 2.3349 5.8299
Tony Graffanino 2.6831 6.1470 2.1046 4.8216
Omar Infante 2.1570 4.8471 2.2734 5.1089
Nick Green 1.5109 3.1025 0.9027 1.8535
Luis Rivas -2.5301 -9.6567 -1.5019 -5.7325
Ray Durham -3.6643 -4.5918 -4.8112 -6.0290
Jose Vidro -3.7831 -8.5109 -3.7115 -8.3499
Ruben A Gotay -4.1369 -7.9099 -4.8471 -9.2679
Kazuo Matsui -4.9006 -12.3909 -7.2887 -18.4291
Luis A Gonzalez -4.9293 -10.8694 -4.5552 -10.0444
Mark Bellhorn -5.5335 -10.4802 -7.4916 -14.1886
Todd Walker -5.8110 -10.2305 -7.5572 -13.3050
Aaron Miles -6.0267 -13.8705 -6.0835 -14.0011
Freddy Sanchez -6.0782 -23.2881 -6.0600 -23.2172
Miguel Cairo -6.4910 -13.4390 -8.4008 -17.3929
Craig Biggio -6.6253 -7.6815 -5.3616 -6.2164
Jose Castillo -11.5033 -17.7931 -10.4798 -16.2101
Jorge L Cantu -12.2341 -26.7413 -12.1495 -26.5563
Mark Loretta -12.7197 -20.5820 -13.3643 -21.6250
Rickie Weeks -13.0999 -23.3718 -12.4126 -22.1457
Robinson Cano -17.4071 -19.9280 -15.2769 -17.4893
Bret Boone -20.5162 -37.2682 -21.6538 -39.3349
A. Soriano -21.5808 -20.2067 -24.1334 -22.5968
Okay, these figures appear much more reasonable, particularly Orlando Hudson. If you check out Pinto's original post, he notes that Hudson did spectacularly well in chasing down popups. Many people feel that infield popups are elective plays that more than one infielder can catch, so there is a potential "ball-hog" factor in including them in range ratings such as this. For instance, last year I theorized that Adam Kennedy suffered in PMR by playing adjacent to a centerfielder-cum-first baseman, and the fact that he does slightly better in groundball-only vs. overall may support that assertion.

At this point, I am bound to believe that the groundball-only figures are a more reliable representation of a defender's range, though I have no opinion as to which PMR model is more accurate.

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