Thursday, September 28, 2006
WATCH LIST SUMMARY -- PITCHERS
I have discovered a terrible oversight; after having posted the Watch List Summary for Position Players two weeks ago, I somehow forgot to post the summary for pitchers, which was just sitting around on my hard drive. So here we go:
Nick Adenhart, RHSP, A Rancho Cucamonga and A Cedar Rapids
Jose Arredondo, RHSP, AA Arkansas and A Rancho Cucamonga
Gustavo Espinoza, LHSP
Espinoza sat out the beginning of the season due to, reportedly, tendonitis, but just never ended up playing. He’s very young, just having turned 20 in the last three weeks, so caution is good to see. He pitched very well in 2005, and also very well in the Dominican Summer League in 2004, so I’ll keep him here until he vanishes for good.
Stephen Marek, RHSP, A Cedar Rapids and A Rancho Cucamonga
Tommy Mendoza, RHSP, A Cedar Rapids
Steve Shell, RHSP, AAA Salt Lake
Watch Out:
I have discovered a terrible oversight; after having posted the Watch List Summary for Position Players two weeks ago, I somehow forgot to post the summary for pitchers, which was just sitting around on my hard drive. So here we go:
Nick Adenhart, RHSP, A Rancho Cucamonga and A Cedar Rapids
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAJust about everything was good about Nick Adenhart’s performance this year, and he looks to be just fine coming off of his Tommy John surgery. He strikes people out, he induced groundballs, he doesn’t issue the base on balls ... what’s to complain about? Hopefully he can stay healthy and make a smooth transition to the Texas League next season.
8/18 5 2 0 9 9 52.3 51 1 46 16 3.78 Rancho Final
7/26 3 1 0 5 5 27.7 29 0 20 9 4.55
7/05 1 0 0 1 1 6.0 8 0 4 3 6.00
7/05 10 2 0 16 16 106.0 84 2 99 26 1.95 Cedar Rapids Final
6/09 7 2 0 12 12 74.7 62 2 74 17 2.17
5/11 5 0 0 7 7 43.7 30 1 46 10 1.65
4/26 3 0 0 4 4 24.7 14 1 24 5 1.46
Jose Arredondo, RHSP, AA Arkansas and A Rancho Cucamonga
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAArredondo, however, did not make so smooth a transition after his promotion. Everything about his performance decreased, from less strikeouts to more home runs. Obviously, he’s still young and has time.
Final 2 3 0 11 11 60.7 80 8 48 22 6.53
8/18 2 1 0 8 8 43.3 55 6 39 15 6.23
7/26 2 0 0 4 4 23.0 30 1 18 8 5.09
7/05 5 6 0 15 15 90.0 62 4 115 35 2.30 A Final
6/09 3 4 0 11 11 61.0 42 2 85 25 2.21
5/11 1 1 0 6 6 31.3 29 1 49 12 2.59
4/26 0 0 0 4 4 19.7 21 0 32 7 2.75
Gustavo Espinoza, LHSP
Espinoza sat out the beginning of the season due to, reportedly, tendonitis, but just never ended up playing. He’s very young, just having turned 20 in the last three weeks, so caution is good to see. He pitched very well in 2005, and also very well in the Dominican Summer League in 2004, so I’ll keep him here until he vanishes for good.
Stephen Marek, RHSP, A Cedar Rapids and A Rancho Cucamonga
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAThe Bartolo Colon injury had effects all down the system, and some reacted to their promotions better than others. Marek was the very model of a modern minor league promotion, pitching very well at Rancho and closing his season with a 10-strikeout start. I’d imagine he’d start there again next season, where we might expect more solid performances.
Final 2 3 0 6 6 32.0 26 4 33 13 3.94
8/18 1 3 0 5 5 25.0 21 3 23 12 4.32
7/26 1 0 0 2 2 8.0 7 2 7 3 4.50
7/05 9 1 0 17 17 107.3 84 7 86 22 2.01 Cedar Rapids Final
6/09 6 1 0 12 12 74.3 62 6 61 15 2.54
Tommy Mendoza, RHSP, A Cedar Rapids
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAOne of the rare Angel pitching prospects to pitch all of 2006 at one level, Mendoza had a bit of an up-and-down year. I’d like to see more strikeouts, as Mendoza is purported to have the best fastball in the organization. He did spend time in the bullpen in 2005, so that may yet be in his future. Of course, this guy is a full year younger than Gustavo Espinoza, so it’s not like the clock is ticking. I’ll take this solid performance for his first full professional season.
Fin. 11 6 0 27 27 170.7 169 15 134 32 4.17
8/18 10 6 0 25 25 159.7 161 15 125 32 4.34
7/26 8 5 0 20 20 130.0 120 10 105 25 3.81
7/05 5 5 0 17 17 108.3 104 8 90 23 4.32
6/09 3 5 0 13 13 77.3 82 6 64 18 5.35
5/11 1 3 0 7 7 41.7 42 5 36 6 4.10
4/26 1 1 0 4 4 23.7 25 1 17 3 3.42
Steve Shell, RHSP, AAA Salt Lake
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAShell has a history of struggling at his first exposure to new levels, so that combined with his young age means his struggles in the PCL are no huge surprise. Or real cause for concern at this point, as he’s only 23 years old. Next year will be a real test, as we see how he adjusts to the advanced competition of AAA.
Final 5 9 0 24 22 122.7 156 16 82 32 6.16
8/18 4 8 0 20 19 103.3 134 14 67 28 6.45
7/26 3 5 0 15 14 80.0 97 10 51 21 5.63
7/05 3 4 0 12 11 69.0 76 6 44 14 3.91
6/09 2 2 0 8 7 48.0 48 5 30 13 3.94
5/11 0 0 0 3 2 18.0 10 3 14 4 2.00
4/26 0 0 0 1 0 3.0 2 1 3 0 6.00
4/26 1 2 0 3 3 18.0 20 1 10 4 4.00 AA Final
Watch Out:
Who Lvl W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERADavid Austen didn’t play this year. Trevor Bell, our first draft pick in 2005, pitched fairly well, though that strikeout rate won’t blow anyone out of the water at this point. Jason Bulger, as you may recall, was the booty for Albert Callaspo. He struggled with injury a bit, but he had very good peripherals that somehow added up to a mediocre ERA. Still, with a thinning Angel bullpen, he’s exactly the kind of guy who could get a shot and put himself in the mix in 2007. Rafael Rodriguez lit up the Cal League in three starts, but pulled an Arredondo and got bombed at AA. Relief prospect Von Stertzbach did not play, and fellow bullpenner Bob Zimmerman pitched himself completely out of the picture as far as being a prospect is concerned.
Bell R 4 2 0 16 16 82.3 82 8 53 15 3.50
Bulger AAA 2 2 4 27 0 34.3 30 0 44 15 4.72
Rodriguez A+ 3 0 0 3 3 17.0 15 0 20 2 0.53
AA 5 10 0 24 24 133.0 175 28 83 55 6.63
Zimmerman AA 2 3 5 34 0 45.7 44 5 26 35 6.11
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
DIGNITY
One thing about this team, they ain't giving up, even when the odds are outrageously against them.
In the last week, we've seen the team play with what seems to be a relaxed lack of urgency, realizing that the game is supposed to be fun. It's nice to see.
Anyway, I'm also just updating to remind everyone that I'm alive. I was going to get to the outfield/DH analysis, but have been bogged down with work for a few days. But don't worry, I haven't forgotten about y'all.
One thing about this team, they ain't giving up, even when the odds are outrageously against them.
In the last week, we've seen the team play with what seems to be a relaxed lack of urgency, realizing that the game is supposed to be fun. It's nice to see.
Anyway, I'm also just updating to remind everyone that I'm alive. I was going to get to the outfield/DH analysis, but have been bogged down with work for a few days. But don't worry, I haven't forgotten about y'all.
Saturday, September 23, 2006
SERIOUSLY
Does anyone know why, when you have a pitcher who's had a good but inconsistent start, who's already thrown more innings in a season than he ever has, and who has thrown over 100 pitches, and hasn't pitched past the seventh inning all season, you put him out there for another inning?
I guess it's because yout set-up man is running on fumes. That's really the only thing I can think of. Because Jered Weaver actually had a quality start through seven.
In all the talk about center field and third base for next year, we can't forget that Scot Shields needs some support in the set-up role, otherwise we're going to face another September where the guy is going to the mound with the sole objective of keeping his arm from falling off.
Does anyone know why, when you have a pitcher who's had a good but inconsistent start, who's already thrown more innings in a season than he ever has, and who has thrown over 100 pitches, and hasn't pitched past the seventh inning all season, you put him out there for another inning?
I guess it's because yout set-up man is running on fumes. That's really the only thing I can think of. Because Jered Weaver actually had a quality start through seven.
In all the talk about center field and third base for next year, we can't forget that Scot Shields needs some support in the set-up role, otherwise we're going to face another September where the guy is going to the mound with the sole objective of keeping his arm from falling off.
Wednesday, September 20, 2006
MAJOR CHANGES
Arte Moreno has promised "major changes" for the Angels this off-season. Of course, before any changes can be pursued, we have to identify what the problems are, and how they might be fixed.
Let's start with position players. Today I'll be looking at the infield.
Catcher
What was supposed to happen: Jeff Mathis was going to step in, step up, and combine with Jose Molina to maintain quality defense, though we were likely to suffer an offensive decline.
What happened: Jeff Mathis couldn't hit at all for a few weeks, so he was sent down and the slow-starting Mike Napoli was recalled from AAA. Napoli went on a binge, and was hitting 310/444/629 after a two-dinger day on July 1. But, just like last year in AA, Napoli suffered a massive and debilitating mid-summer slump, hitting 151/287/302 since. Luckily, Molina has come on to hit 301/323/505 over that same period, so the wound has been salved.
Where we go from here: As Napoli is a rookie, it's hard to tell what his true talent level is. Based on his huge slump last season, my gut is to say that he's just a streaky guy, and will alternate from surge to slump. As long as he can hit .220, he can help a team. Heck, as a catcher, he can probably help you hitting .210 or .215. I think he can meet those modest minimums. He shouldn't go anywhere.
People are talking about Jeff Mathis as though he's a bust, but there are two important things to remember: for one, he hasn't really ever had any season that made it look like he could be a star (his 2003 season at Rancho comes the closest), and he's still pretty young (he'll turn 24 in spring training). He still projects as a guy who can be a decent regular, which is all he ever projected to. He's not a bust yet.
I think 2007 should see the job split between Napoli and Mathis. Jose Molina is a great defender, but his offense this season is pretty much as good as he'll get. Mathis has a ways to go, but he might as well start learning in the majors. There are still a lot of questions about this position -- if Napoli turns out to really be a .150 hitter and Mathis can't improve, we're in trouble -- but we have the pieces in place.
First Base
What was supposed to happen: Casey Kotchman was going to have the best season by an Angel first baseman in roughly fifteen years.
What happened: Casey Kotchman caught what appears to be the most virulent strain of mononucleosis imaginable, which wasn't diagnosed until a few weeks into the season, despite the fact that the guy had to go on an IV after his spring training games.
So Kendry Morales came up, got off to a hot start, commenced his regular two months of difficulty at a new level, showed some signs of life, got demoted, and bashed up AAA upon his return. Howie Kendrick was called up in his stead, and despite a bit of a late-season slide as had an impressive debut. Robb Quinlan has filled in very well against left-handed pitchers when Kendrick plays second.
Where we go from here: Obviously, Kendrick will be moving to second. That leaves us with Kotchman and Morales as in-house solutions.
The only question with Kotchman is health. We now he can hit in the minors and we've seen him hit in the majors. He'll be only 24 years old next season. He's already a high-caliber defensive player.
But that health is a real question. But I can't help but think of Nick Johnson, who, despite his prodigious hitting talents, suffered freak injury after freak injury in the minors, derailing his progress and earning a ticket out of the Bronx.
But have you noticed what's up with Nick the Stick now? Now he's 28 years old, playing every day (he should play over 150 games this season), and hitting 293/430/525.
Kotchman's ailments have been of the freak variety. If he can kick this viral infection and get back to full strength, I have no doubt in my mind that he's a major league hitter. I'd really hate to see the Angels give up on him, as it seems they might, just because they run out of patience with the healing process.
I don't think Morales has the ceiling of Kotchman, but at least he can keep himself on the field. Kendry doesn't draw walks, which is a problem, but otherwise looks like he can be a hitter. After being sent back down to AAA on July 23, he hit 326/356/600 over his next 100ish at-bats, which has a Major League Equivalence of 265/296/467. For a 23-year-old, that's something to build on.
I'd like to see us bite the bullet and give one (or, if necessary, both) of these guys the job next season. There will be rough patches, almost certainly. But the fact is that we have no idea if either one of these guys is really going to be part of our future. We have to give them the opportunity to demonstrate that they can be.
Now, there's going to be a positional logjam if both Kotchman can stay healthy and Morales can produce. We'll worry about that later.
Second Base
What was supposed to happen: Adam Kennedy was going to give us slightly-better-than league-average offense and a Gold Glove.
What happened: Adam Kennedy had his worst season in five years, and was relegated to a platoon role with Robb Quinlan.
Where we go from here: This is an easy one; we say farewell to Adam, a franchise hero, and welcome Howie Kendrick, who just might be the next MVP to wear the Angel red.
People seem worried about Howie's recent slump; I'm not. Even with this slide, he's hitting 296/326/448 since his second recall, where he entered the starting lineup for good. And, remember, he's only 22 years old -- he's younger than Kotchman and Morales and Mathis and Napoli and all these guys we've been talking about.
And here's something else -- his career high in at-bats before this season was 469, last season, with his career high in games being 109. This year, he's already up to 519 at-bats and 131 games played. He's never played this deep into a season. And those fifty new at-bats, when have they all been? In September, where his line has dropped from 313/351/460 (which includes his not-good cup of coffee early in the year) to 275/311/410.
He's going to be fine.
Third Base
What was supposed to happen: Lord only knows; with Dallas McPherson hurt again, Legs Figgins was supposed to play third until Darin Erstad got hurt in center, at which time maybe Dallas would be healthy, but who knows.
What happened: Turns out that Maicer Izturis was up to the challenge, hitting 291/363/412 and seizing the leadoff spot from Figgins. He has also demonstrated defense that is, shall we say, spotty.
Where we go from here: I don't think anyone sees Ztu as a long-term solution at third base. I still think McPherson can hit if healthy (again, a 248/296/456 line is something to build on, and he always seems to heat up right before re-injuring himself), but whereas Casey Kotchman is constantly beset by freak injuries, Dallas' result from a chronically injured back. This is not something that's going to get better. I don't think the Angels can rely on him for that very reason, and I don't think they plan to.
(Incidentally, a lot of people are calling the Mathis-Kotchman-McPherson troika a triple-bust. I've discussed Mathis above; I don't think you can call Kotchman a bust because he has a viral disease. McPherson ... well, I guess you can call him health bust, maybe, but people are saying he's a bust because of the strikeouts. That's flatly untrue; it may well have become true were he healthy enough to play and strike out all the time, but that's not what has happened.)
The third base situation, due to The Legs, seems somewhat intertwined with the center field situation. It seems, however, that the Angels are starting to lose faith in Figgins as an every-day player, just as they came to lose faith in David Eckstein as a regular shortstop.
Figgins has been taking some hits in the Halosphere, but I think he'll bounce back. He's drawing more walks this year and he's maintained his power; the one difference in his offensive performance is that the singles aren't dropping in, and as a result he's hitting .260 instead of .290.
Of course, even a bounced-back Figgins is a just-above league average offensive player, and at a position like third base on a team without any power, that's not good enough. The Angels appear to have identified this position for an upgrade, and this is a good decision. There is talk of Aramis Ramirez, and also of Miguel Tejada, presuming he could be convinced to change positions.
Pending the costs, either one of these guys would be a good addition. But what if we can't get someone like that?
I don't know; I guess we live another year with Figgins or Izturis. Or maybe we take McPherson to a faith healer and he comes out okay. Or, thinking way outside the box, maybe we look at Kendry Morales, who has a strong arm and looked pretty good defensively at first, and say, "Hey, if we can make Robb Quinlan a third baseman, maybe we can do the same with Kendry." I don't know.
Given everything, I assume that Aramis Ramirez is target number one this winter.
Shortstop
What was supposed to happen: Orlando Cabrera would do things.
What happened: Orlando Cabrera did things, just a little bit better than he ever did before.
Where we go from here: Brandon Wood is still a year away, and Erick Aybar didn't blow away anyone this year, so The OC looks pretty safe. Still, he's coming off a terrific offensive year that may put his trade value at the highest it will ever be. I'm not saying we should trade him come hell or high-water, but if he can be part of a deal for an Aramis Ramirez or Vernon Wells, the trigger should be pulled and Erick Aybar gets a season in the nine-spot.
It's also not impossible that he could be moved as part of a Miguel Tejada trade.
I won't weep if Lando is still our Opening Day shorstop next season. However, if he is, that means that we should have moved Aybar somewhere so that Wood can settle in at AAA (and Sean Rodriguez at AA).
I'll get to the outfield and DH spots later this week.
Arte Moreno has promised "major changes" for the Angels this off-season. Of course, before any changes can be pursued, we have to identify what the problems are, and how they might be fixed.
Let's start with position players. Today I'll be looking at the infield.
Catcher
What was supposed to happen: Jeff Mathis was going to step in, step up, and combine with Jose Molina to maintain quality defense, though we were likely to suffer an offensive decline.
What happened: Jeff Mathis couldn't hit at all for a few weeks, so he was sent down and the slow-starting Mike Napoli was recalled from AAA. Napoli went on a binge, and was hitting 310/444/629 after a two-dinger day on July 1. But, just like last year in AA, Napoli suffered a massive and debilitating mid-summer slump, hitting 151/287/302 since. Luckily, Molina has come on to hit 301/323/505 over that same period, so the wound has been salved.
Where we go from here: As Napoli is a rookie, it's hard to tell what his true talent level is. Based on his huge slump last season, my gut is to say that he's just a streaky guy, and will alternate from surge to slump. As long as he can hit .220, he can help a team. Heck, as a catcher, he can probably help you hitting .210 or .215. I think he can meet those modest minimums. He shouldn't go anywhere.
People are talking about Jeff Mathis as though he's a bust, but there are two important things to remember: for one, he hasn't really ever had any season that made it look like he could be a star (his 2003 season at Rancho comes the closest), and he's still pretty young (he'll turn 24 in spring training). He still projects as a guy who can be a decent regular, which is all he ever projected to. He's not a bust yet.
I think 2007 should see the job split between Napoli and Mathis. Jose Molina is a great defender, but his offense this season is pretty much as good as he'll get. Mathis has a ways to go, but he might as well start learning in the majors. There are still a lot of questions about this position -- if Napoli turns out to really be a .150 hitter and Mathis can't improve, we're in trouble -- but we have the pieces in place.
First Base
What was supposed to happen: Casey Kotchman was going to have the best season by an Angel first baseman in roughly fifteen years.
What happened: Casey Kotchman caught what appears to be the most virulent strain of mononucleosis imaginable, which wasn't diagnosed until a few weeks into the season, despite the fact that the guy had to go on an IV after his spring training games.
So Kendry Morales came up, got off to a hot start, commenced his regular two months of difficulty at a new level, showed some signs of life, got demoted, and bashed up AAA upon his return. Howie Kendrick was called up in his stead, and despite a bit of a late-season slide as had an impressive debut. Robb Quinlan has filled in very well against left-handed pitchers when Kendrick plays second.
Where we go from here: Obviously, Kendrick will be moving to second. That leaves us with Kotchman and Morales as in-house solutions.
The only question with Kotchman is health. We now he can hit in the minors and we've seen him hit in the majors. He'll be only 24 years old next season. He's already a high-caliber defensive player.
But that health is a real question. But I can't help but think of Nick Johnson, who, despite his prodigious hitting talents, suffered freak injury after freak injury in the minors, derailing his progress and earning a ticket out of the Bronx.
But have you noticed what's up with Nick the Stick now? Now he's 28 years old, playing every day (he should play over 150 games this season), and hitting 293/430/525.
Kotchman's ailments have been of the freak variety. If he can kick this viral infection and get back to full strength, I have no doubt in my mind that he's a major league hitter. I'd really hate to see the Angels give up on him, as it seems they might, just because they run out of patience with the healing process.
I don't think Morales has the ceiling of Kotchman, but at least he can keep himself on the field. Kendry doesn't draw walks, which is a problem, but otherwise looks like he can be a hitter. After being sent back down to AAA on July 23, he hit 326/356/600 over his next 100ish at-bats, which has a Major League Equivalence of 265/296/467. For a 23-year-old, that's something to build on.
I'd like to see us bite the bullet and give one (or, if necessary, both) of these guys the job next season. There will be rough patches, almost certainly. But the fact is that we have no idea if either one of these guys is really going to be part of our future. We have to give them the opportunity to demonstrate that they can be.
Now, there's going to be a positional logjam if both Kotchman can stay healthy and Morales can produce. We'll worry about that later.
Second Base
What was supposed to happen: Adam Kennedy was going to give us slightly-better-than league-average offense and a Gold Glove.
What happened: Adam Kennedy had his worst season in five years, and was relegated to a platoon role with Robb Quinlan.
Where we go from here: This is an easy one; we say farewell to Adam, a franchise hero, and welcome Howie Kendrick, who just might be the next MVP to wear the Angel red.
People seem worried about Howie's recent slump; I'm not. Even with this slide, he's hitting 296/326/448 since his second recall, where he entered the starting lineup for good. And, remember, he's only 22 years old -- he's younger than Kotchman and Morales and Mathis and Napoli and all these guys we've been talking about.
And here's something else -- his career high in at-bats before this season was 469, last season, with his career high in games being 109. This year, he's already up to 519 at-bats and 131 games played. He's never played this deep into a season. And those fifty new at-bats, when have they all been? In September, where his line has dropped from 313/351/460 (which includes his not-good cup of coffee early in the year) to 275/311/410.
He's going to be fine.
Third Base
What was supposed to happen: Lord only knows; with Dallas McPherson hurt again, Legs Figgins was supposed to play third until Darin Erstad got hurt in center, at which time maybe Dallas would be healthy, but who knows.
What happened: Turns out that Maicer Izturis was up to the challenge, hitting 291/363/412 and seizing the leadoff spot from Figgins. He has also demonstrated defense that is, shall we say, spotty.
Where we go from here: I don't think anyone sees Ztu as a long-term solution at third base. I still think McPherson can hit if healthy (again, a 248/296/456 line is something to build on, and he always seems to heat up right before re-injuring himself), but whereas Casey Kotchman is constantly beset by freak injuries, Dallas' result from a chronically injured back. This is not something that's going to get better. I don't think the Angels can rely on him for that very reason, and I don't think they plan to.
(Incidentally, a lot of people are calling the Mathis-Kotchman-McPherson troika a triple-bust. I've discussed Mathis above; I don't think you can call Kotchman a bust because he has a viral disease. McPherson ... well, I guess you can call him health bust, maybe, but people are saying he's a bust because of the strikeouts. That's flatly untrue; it may well have become true were he healthy enough to play and strike out all the time, but that's not what has happened.)
The third base situation, due to The Legs, seems somewhat intertwined with the center field situation. It seems, however, that the Angels are starting to lose faith in Figgins as an every-day player, just as they came to lose faith in David Eckstein as a regular shortstop.
Figgins has been taking some hits in the Halosphere, but I think he'll bounce back. He's drawing more walks this year and he's maintained his power; the one difference in his offensive performance is that the singles aren't dropping in, and as a result he's hitting .260 instead of .290.
Of course, even a bounced-back Figgins is a just-above league average offensive player, and at a position like third base on a team without any power, that's not good enough. The Angels appear to have identified this position for an upgrade, and this is a good decision. There is talk of Aramis Ramirez, and also of Miguel Tejada, presuming he could be convinced to change positions.
Pending the costs, either one of these guys would be a good addition. But what if we can't get someone like that?
I don't know; I guess we live another year with Figgins or Izturis. Or maybe we take McPherson to a faith healer and he comes out okay. Or, thinking way outside the box, maybe we look at Kendry Morales, who has a strong arm and looked pretty good defensively at first, and say, "Hey, if we can make Robb Quinlan a third baseman, maybe we can do the same with Kendry." I don't know.
Given everything, I assume that Aramis Ramirez is target number one this winter.
Shortstop
What was supposed to happen: Orlando Cabrera would do things.
What happened: Orlando Cabrera did things, just a little bit better than he ever did before.
Where we go from here: Brandon Wood is still a year away, and Erick Aybar didn't blow away anyone this year, so The OC looks pretty safe. Still, he's coming off a terrific offensive year that may put his trade value at the highest it will ever be. I'm not saying we should trade him come hell or high-water, but if he can be part of a deal for an Aramis Ramirez or Vernon Wells, the trigger should be pulled and Erick Aybar gets a season in the nine-spot.
It's also not impossible that he could be moved as part of a Miguel Tejada trade.
I won't weep if Lando is still our Opening Day shorstop next season. However, if he is, that means that we should have moved Aybar somewhere so that Wood can settle in at AAA (and Sean Rodriguez at AA).
I'll get to the outfield and DH spots later this week.
Monday, September 18, 2006
SAME OLD ANGELS
Let it be known, here and now, that I'm calling this season. Seven games back with twelve to play, we basically have to sweep the remaining seven games against Oakland and out-perform them in the other five games. Possible? Technically. Likely? Incredibly not.
I realize I'm a bit behind the game on this, but so be it.
The Angels may want until elimination to do this, but for the rest of the season I'd like to see Kendry at first, Howie at second, Dallas at third, and Willits in center. Let Aybar get around half the starts at short, too. Napoli and Mathis should get all the starts behind the plate. Let the kids play together for a couple of weeks, and see what happens. Let Tim Salmon get as much DH time as his health will allow, platooning (or simply alternating) Garret and Juan Rivera in left. Here's the lineup I would like to see, for good or ill:
Willits, CF
Kendrick, 2B
Salmon, DH
Vlad, RF
McPherson, 3B
Rivera/Morales, LF/1B
Morales/Anderson, 1B/LF
Mathis/Napoli, C
Izturis, 3B
You can shuffle a few of those guys around if you like. And Salmon-Vlad will lead to a few double plays. But the point is to get the kids and Tim Salmon some at-bats.
Except for October 1.
On October 1, I'd like to see Adam Kennedy at second, Garret Anderson in left, Darin Erstad in center (health permitting, if not, at first), and Timmy in right field. Let's get a last hurrah out of the franchise heroes, three of which will be gone at the end of the year.
Over the next few days I'll start giving my views on why we came up short (few surprises likely to be seen there) and where we can go from here. The Halosphere is already buzzing with these topics, of course, but, hey, that's life.
Let it be known, here and now, that I'm calling this season. Seven games back with twelve to play, we basically have to sweep the remaining seven games against Oakland and out-perform them in the other five games. Possible? Technically. Likely? Incredibly not.
I realize I'm a bit behind the game on this, but so be it.
The Angels may want until elimination to do this, but for the rest of the season I'd like to see Kendry at first, Howie at second, Dallas at third, and Willits in center. Let Aybar get around half the starts at short, too. Napoli and Mathis should get all the starts behind the plate. Let the kids play together for a couple of weeks, and see what happens. Let Tim Salmon get as much DH time as his health will allow, platooning (or simply alternating) Garret and Juan Rivera in left. Here's the lineup I would like to see, for good or ill:
Willits, CF
Kendrick, 2B
Salmon, DH
Vlad, RF
McPherson, 3B
Rivera/Morales, LF/1B
Morales/Anderson, 1B/LF
Mathis/Napoli, C
Izturis, 3B
You can shuffle a few of those guys around if you like. And Salmon-Vlad will lead to a few double plays. But the point is to get the kids and Tim Salmon some at-bats.
Except for October 1.
On October 1, I'd like to see Adam Kennedy at second, Garret Anderson in left, Darin Erstad in center (health permitting, if not, at first), and Timmy in right field. Let's get a last hurrah out of the franchise heroes, three of which will be gone at the end of the year.
Over the next few days I'll start giving my views on why we came up short (few surprises likely to be seen there) and where we can go from here. The Halosphere is already buzzing with these topics, of course, but, hey, that's life.
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
4.5
The Angels, somehow, pulled out another come-from-behind win last night, shortening the A's' lead in the west to four-and-a-half games.
It was a bit of an arduous journey; for the second straight night, our starting pitcher had a pretty good game, which just seemed a little bit less good because all three runs allowed came in one inning. But John Lackey and Ervin Santana have combined for a 3.60 ERA over the past two days, which isn't mind-bogglingly spectacular, but gets the job done.
The game almost got out of hand with Frankie Rodriguez on the mound in the ninth; after an odd walk of Paul Konerko (The K threw him a 3-0 slider, as though he wanted no part of him, thinking Paulie might be sitting on a fastball, I guess), K-Rod got AJ Pierzynski to line the ball to right. The ball was hard-hit, but all Vlad had to do was take three or four steps back and catch it -- with the pinch runner on first in motion, an inning-ending double play seemed inevitable.
But instead of taking three or four steps back Vlad took two or three, and when the dust settled runners stood on first and third with one out.
It looked like K-Rod's scoreless inning streak might come to an end, through little fault of his own, but he induced the strikeout and the groundout to get out of it, and the Lads were still in the game.
The other big moment came in the bottom of the eleventh; when Howie Kendrick hit a slow chopper to short with men on first and second and one out, it looked like another double play might derail an Angel rally. But Adam Kennedy slid into second like a house afire and Howie busted his tail down the line, assuring that the ChiSox could only pull one out out of the play, and setting up Legs Figgins for the game-winning hit in the subsequent at-bat.
I don't know if you've noticed this, but AK has been doing pretty decently of late. He was hitting 254/310/352 at the end of play on August 24; since then he's hit 356/453/556 in 45 at-bats. Now, three of the six walks he's received have been intentional, and it helps that 39 of those 45 at-bats have been against right-handed pitchers, but that's still getting it done down the stretch, and hopefully he can keep it up.
We're the hottest team in baseball over the last ten games, and we'll need to maintain that. I'd like to see us pick up one more game before taking on the A's in the last week plus of the season. There's no real analysis left -- our guys just have to go out there and win ballgames.
The Angels, somehow, pulled out another come-from-behind win last night, shortening the A's' lead in the west to four-and-a-half games.
It was a bit of an arduous journey; for the second straight night, our starting pitcher had a pretty good game, which just seemed a little bit less good because all three runs allowed came in one inning. But John Lackey and Ervin Santana have combined for a 3.60 ERA over the past two days, which isn't mind-bogglingly spectacular, but gets the job done.
The game almost got out of hand with Frankie Rodriguez on the mound in the ninth; after an odd walk of Paul Konerko (The K threw him a 3-0 slider, as though he wanted no part of him, thinking Paulie might be sitting on a fastball, I guess), K-Rod got AJ Pierzynski to line the ball to right. The ball was hard-hit, but all Vlad had to do was take three or four steps back and catch it -- with the pinch runner on first in motion, an inning-ending double play seemed inevitable.
But instead of taking three or four steps back Vlad took two or three, and when the dust settled runners stood on first and third with one out.
It looked like K-Rod's scoreless inning streak might come to an end, through little fault of his own, but he induced the strikeout and the groundout to get out of it, and the Lads were still in the game.
The other big moment came in the bottom of the eleventh; when Howie Kendrick hit a slow chopper to short with men on first and second and one out, it looked like another double play might derail an Angel rally. But Adam Kennedy slid into second like a house afire and Howie busted his tail down the line, assuring that the ChiSox could only pull one out out of the play, and setting up Legs Figgins for the game-winning hit in the subsequent at-bat.
I don't know if you've noticed this, but AK has been doing pretty decently of late. He was hitting 254/310/352 at the end of play on August 24; since then he's hit 356/453/556 in 45 at-bats. Now, three of the six walks he's received have been intentional, and it helps that 39 of those 45 at-bats have been against right-handed pitchers, but that's still getting it done down the stretch, and hopefully he can keep it up.
We're the hottest team in baseball over the last ten games, and we'll need to maintain that. I'd like to see us pick up one more game before taking on the A's in the last week plus of the season. There's no real analysis left -- our guys just have to go out there and win ballgames.
Tuesday, September 12, 2006
WATCH LIST SUMMARY -- POSITION PLAYERS
Well, the minor league regular season is over, so it's time to wrap up the Watch List. Below you'll find everyone's numbers as of each time I did one, so you can get a shape and feel to each player's season. Each player is linked to their page at Minor League Splits; it is from there that I used the park-adjusted numbers to determine their OPS+. For players who spent substantial time at AA or above, I also have their Major League Equivalencies, courtesy a spreadsheet posted by Dan Szymborski of the Baseball Think Factory. I've also removed the major league lines for the guys who've had action with the big club.
At the end is the Watch Out list of guys I didn't follow as closely; they're mostly short-season or low-level players whose performances should be taken with a degree of salt.
I'll be getting to the pitchers later this week.
Erick Aybar, SS, AAA Salt Lake, BB/TR
As you can see, Erick really peaked by late July, hitting .410 that month. He followed it up with a 177/221/229 in August, really dragging his numbers down. In fact, if you run his MLE as of July 26, you get an AVG/OBP/SLG closer to 250/290/375, which though not very good is still substantailly better than his final numbers. I don’t know if his sporadic playing time on the AL/PCL yo-yo contributed to the slump.
Aybar batted leadoff for Salt Lake, a role in which he would be miscast at the major league level. His OBP was well-below the league average before you even adjust for his park, and his stolen base success rate is poor.
You have to think Aybar’s days in the organization are fairly numbered. Brandon Wood certainly played well enough AA that he deserves the promotion, and Sean Rodriguez is breathing down everyone’s neck, too. It’s probably also too early to move Wood to third base, and Orlando Cabrera has a hold on the major league job ... so there’s nowhere to put him. I have no idea of what’s going to happen.
Michael Collins, C, A Rancho Cucamonga, BR/TR
At any rate, he held his own, and will have to keep doing so as he moves up the ladder. He’s demonstrated more power and patience in the past, both of which would obviously be quite welcome from here on out.
Nick Gorneault, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
There’s really no room for him here. I guess he could fill the Curtis Pride role, but he doesn’t bat left-handed. I’d like to see him get at least a cup this year for his years of service, but he seems condemned to the life of a AAAA slugger.
Jeff Mathis, C, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
Kendry Morales, 1B/DH, AAA Salt Lake, BB/TR
Sean Rodriguez, SS, A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Arkansas, BR/TR
The mission was semi-accomplished; he didn’t walk quite as much as in the past (though he improved at this considerably as the season wore on), but demonstrated some very good power, and put up the highest OPS+ at his level of anyone on this list.
Now, the Cal League will do that to you, so we should anticipate a bit of a power decrease next season. But Rodriguez has made his presence known, and announced that he can’t be neglected in the farm system shortstop crunch. He took well to AA, where he’ll be making his home next year.
The only alarming thing, as it is with several of our prospects, is the strikeout rate. But if S-Rod continues to draw walks and hit for some power, that shouldn’t be too awful. Still, he struck out more frequently at Rancho than Brandon Wood did, so it’s something we have to keep our eyes on.
Drew Toussaint, OF, A Rancho Cucamonga, BR/TR
Mark Trumbo, 1B/3B, A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
It turned out to be his best month by a landslide. Still, despite the crash-and-burn finish, it was nice to see him crawl back toward respectability over the course of the year. As I mentioned at length in the last Watch List Update, Trumbo demonstrated a huge gap between his performance with runners on base (265/350/453) and with no one on (190/251/291), and even had a very respectable strikeout-to-walk ratio in the former instance. I still don’t know that that has any meaning, but it might be a sign that this raw player has some things he can put together.
Reggie Willits, CF/LF, AAA Salt Lake and MLB Angels, BB/TR
Of course, the no-power and middling stolen bases might limit whether or not he can be a regular. That’s the big question – is Willits consigned to the Rich Becker career of the low-power high-walks fourth outfielder, or can he be the David Eckstein of the outfield? The Angels love that latter type, so if he shows anything he might be able to stick for awhile. But that would mean Figgins would have to move back to third, taking Dallas McPherson out of the picture even before his cranky back had the opportunity to do so, as well as the surging Maicer Izturis.
With Vlad/Garret/Rivera set at two of the three outfield positions and DH, and with Casey Kotchman and Kendry Morales knocking on the first base door, the Angels have a lot of decisions yet to make for 2007. If Kotch or Morales plays first, what do you do with the other one? Do you DH him and put Rivera in center, with Willits as his defensive caddy? Who gets third, Figgins or Ztu? And what do you do with McPherson, presuming he can stay healthy long enough for you to do anything?
Brandon Wood, SS, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
He’s always going to have a low average, because he’ll always strike out. But he’s learning to walk, and he’s still got the real ultimate power. And if he can continue to hold down shortstop, that’s pretty damn good.
I’d like to see him put up at least a 300/370/520 line at AAA next year. That won’t knock your socks off, but it will demonstrate some progress. I’m also looking for the walks to continue to go up and the strikeouts to start to come down. Everything else will come into place.
Watch Out:
Well, the minor league regular season is over, so it's time to wrap up the Watch List. Below you'll find everyone's numbers as of each time I did one, so you can get a shape and feel to each player's season. Each player is linked to their page at Minor League Splits; it is from there that I used the park-adjusted numbers to determine their OPS+. For players who spent substantial time at AA or above, I also have their Major League Equivalencies, courtesy a spreadsheet posted by Dan Szymborski of the Baseball Think Factory. I've also removed the major league lines for the guys who've had action with the big club.
At the end is the Watch Out list of guys I didn't follow as closely; they're mostly short-season or low-level players whose performances should be taken with a degree of salt.
I'll be getting to the pitchers later this week.
Erick Aybar, SS, AAA Salt Lake, BB/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+I’ve taken out Erick’s major league sips of coffee here.
MLE 312 69 15 2 4 15 40 20 15 221 262 317
Final 339 96 20 3 6 21 36 32 18 283 327 413 87
8/18 311 92 18 3 6 21 34 31 17 296 342 431 96
7/26 220 69 14 3 6 XX 22 22 12 314 363 486 115
7/05 182 54 10 3 5 14 20 17 9 297 350 467 107
6/09 144 42 6 2 4 10 17 13 7 292 342 444 101
5/11 127 37 6 2 3 8 17 12 6 291 338 441 98
4/26 78 27 2 2 2 5 10 6 4 346 393 500 127
As you can see, Erick really peaked by late July, hitting .410 that month. He followed it up with a 177/221/229 in August, really dragging his numbers down. In fact, if you run his MLE as of July 26, you get an AVG/OBP/SLG closer to 250/290/375, which though not very good is still substantailly better than his final numbers. I don’t know if his sporadic playing time on the AL/PCL yo-yo contributed to the slump.
Aybar batted leadoff for Salt Lake, a role in which he would be miscast at the major league level. His OBP was well-below the league average before you even adjust for his park, and his stolen base success rate is poor.
You have to think Aybar’s days in the organization are fairly numbered. Brandon Wood certainly played well enough AA that he deserves the promotion, and Sean Rodriguez is breathing down everyone’s neck, too. It’s probably also too early to move Wood to third base, and Orlando Cabrera has a hold on the major league job ... so there’s nowhere to put him. I have no idea of what’s going to happen.
Michael Collins, C, A Rancho Cucamonga, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+If that batting average and walk total don’t make the OBP make any sense to you, know this: Collins was hit by a pitch a staggering 32 times this season. This represents a skill, certainly, though I doubt his HBP totals will always be so extreme.
Final 477 139 29 1 7 29 74 9 9 291 371 400 104
8/18 420 123 22 1 7 23 69 7 6 293 370 400 102
7/26 356 107 21 1 7 17 60 6 6 310 368 424 111
7/05 280 83 18 1 5 13 49 5 4 296 367 421 110
6/09 216 66 10 1 3 10 38 4 2 306 367 403 106
5/11 118 40 5 1 3 6 19 2 1 339 383 475 129
4/26 67 25 5 1 2 4 10 0 1 373 427 567 164
At any rate, he held his own, and will have to keep doing so as he moves up the ladder. He’s demonstrated more power and patience in the past, both of which would obviously be quite welcome from here on out.
Nick Gorneault, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+Gorneault missed some time to injury in July, and never really got completely back into the swing after his return.
MLE 375 83 19 5 9 27 117 4 3 221 276 373
Final 407 115 25 9 15 38 106 6 4 283 343 499 110
8/18 344 98 22 5 14 34 88 5 4 285 347 500 112
7/26 285 79 18 4 13 30 68 3 3 277 342 505 110
7/05 267 77 17 4 12 30 59 3 3 288 355 517 116
6/09 222 66 15 3 8 28 44 2 3 297 373 500 120
5/11 121 36 8 3 4 12 28 0 1 298 361 512 113
4/26 73 20 2 1 4 5 18 0 1 274 321 493 102
There’s really no room for him here. I guess he could fill the Curtis Pride role, but he doesn’t bat left-handed. I’d like to see him get at least a cup this year for his years of service, but he seems condemned to the life of a AAAA slugger.
Jeff Mathis, C, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+This is a rather underwhelming performance on the whole, though the fact that Mathis is still so young (22) is mitigating. But he needs to get better; where Mike Napoli can still help you hitting .226, Mathis doesn’t have the secondary skills to do the same.
MLE 353 80 25 2 3 18 83 2 1 226 268 334
Final 384 111 33 3 5 26 75 3 1 289 333 430 94
8/18 346 100 30 2 4 23 69 2 1 289 332 422 92
7/26 281 86 24 2 3 17 54 1 1 306 345 438 99
7/05 217 62 19 1 3 15 45 1 1 286 326 424 90
6/09 129 36 13 0 2 6 23 1 1 279 307 426 85
5/11 23 8 3 0 0 2 7 0 0 348 385 478 120
Kendry Morales, 1B/DH, AAA Salt Lake, BB/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+That might seem like a pretty brutal MLE, but Kendry’s 240/302/388 in the majors isn’t that far off of it. Still, it’s a nice season at AAA, as Morales pulled his regular schtick of following a month or so of awfulness with some rockin’-out awesomeness. He still walks too infrequently, and I’m not convinced he’s going to be more than a .270 or .280 hitter on a regular basis, but he’s got some pop and as soon as he internalizes the adjustments he seems to have to make every year, he’s in line to put up some very good years.
MLE 233 59 10 1 7 10 44 0 2 253 288 395
Final 256 82 13 1 12 14 40 0 3 320 359 520 123
5/11 116 28 3 1 3 9 22 0 2 241 296 362 68
4/26 74 18 1 0 3 1 13 0 2 243 253 378 60
Sean Rodriguez, SS, A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Arkansas, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+Coming into the year, I said I’d liked to see Sean put up a 320/440/520, and I’d even take a 300/410/500.
Final 65 23 5 0 5 11 18 0 3 354 462 662 163 AA
8/18 455 137 29 5 24 47 124 15 3 301 377 545 145 A Final
7/26 383 119 24 3 20 37 109 13 3 311 382 546 145
7/05 308 92 17 2 16 24 84 10 3 299 360 523 132
6/09 221 63 10 2 9 17 56 7 3 285 353 471 118
5/11 117 38 6 1 4 4 34 6 3 325 365 496 127
4/26 58 23 4 1 3 2 16 4 1 397 429 655 185
The mission was semi-accomplished; he didn’t walk quite as much as in the past (though he improved at this considerably as the season wore on), but demonstrated some very good power, and put up the highest OPS+ at his level of anyone on this list.
Now, the Cal League will do that to you, so we should anticipate a bit of a power decrease next season. But Rodriguez has made his presence known, and announced that he can’t be neglected in the farm system shortstop crunch. He took well to AA, where he’ll be making his home next year.
The only alarming thing, as it is with several of our prospects, is the strikeout rate. But if S-Rod continues to draw walks and hit for some power, that shouldn’t be too awful. Still, he struck out more frequently at Rancho than Brandon Wood did, so it’s something we have to keep our eyes on.
Drew Toussaint, OF, A Rancho Cucamonga, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+Sometimes a sleeper prospect goes into hibernation.
Final 372 90 25 1 12 35 119 2 2 242 325 411 95
8/18 337 82 21 1 11 30 105 1 2 243 325 409 96
7/26 293 72 18 1 10 26 88 1 2 246 330 416 99
7/05 248 59 13 0 10 21 75 1 1 238 323 411 95
6/09 187 43 12 0 8 19 59 1 1 230 321 422 97
5/11 103 20 6 0 3 12 38 1 0 194 291 340 69
4/26 62 17 6 0 3 7 20 1 0 274 357 516 107
Mark Trumbo, 1B/3B, A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+Trumbo dug himself into a hole with an awful start, but hit 286/423/390 in July, and walked more often than he struck out.
Final 428 94 19 0 13 44 99 5 5 220 293 355 82
8/18 367 83 17 0 12 44 86 5 5 226 309 371 91
7/26 293 67 14 0 11 38 71 4 4 229 317 389 99
7/05 249 51 12 0 10 22 61 1 3 205 271 373 80
6/09 180 39 7 0 8 16 45 1 3 217 284 389 88
5/11 92 17 3 0 4 5 22 1 0 185 232 348 62
4/26 48 8 0 0 1 3 12 1 0 167 226 229 29
It turned out to be his best month by a landslide. Still, despite the crash-and-burn finish, it was nice to see him crawl back toward respectability over the course of the year. As I mentioned at length in the last Watch List Update, Trumbo demonstrated a huge gap between his performance with runners on base (265/350/453) and with no one on (190/251/291), and even had a very respectable strikeout-to-walk ratio in the former instance. I still don’t know that that has any meaning, but it might be a sign that this raw player has some things he can put together.
Reggie Willits, CF/LF, AAA Salt Lake and MLB Angels, BB/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+He needs to improve that stolen-base percentage, but everything else about Willits’ line indicates he could be a major league player. I’m still skeptical that he’ll be able to maintain a great walk rate in the majors, where pitchers won’t fear his total lack of power, but even if he were able to put up a .350 OBP he’d match what Legs Figgins has brought us the past couple of years.
MLE 320 83 14 2 2 54 55 20 13 259 369 334
8/18 352 115 18 4 3 77 50 31 15 327 448 426 127 AAA Final
7/26 318 102 14 4 3 65 49 24 14 321 437 418 122
7/05 275 84 14 4 3 56 44 22 12 305 424 418 118
6/09 178 55 10 2 1 33 30 14 9 309 416 404 113
5/11 76 24 5 2 1 12 13 8 3 316 404 474 122
4/26 47 14 4 1 1 4 6 6 4 298 353 489 110
Of course, the no-power and middling stolen bases might limit whether or not he can be a regular. That’s the big question – is Willits consigned to the Rich Becker career of the low-power high-walks fourth outfielder, or can he be the David Eckstein of the outfield? The Angels love that latter type, so if he shows anything he might be able to stick for awhile. But that would mean Figgins would have to move back to third, taking Dallas McPherson out of the picture even before his cranky back had the opportunity to do so, as well as the surging Maicer Izturis.
With Vlad/Garret/Rivera set at two of the three outfield positions and DH, and with Casey Kotchman and Kendry Morales knocking on the first base door, the Angels have a lot of decisions yet to make for 2007. If Kotch or Morales plays first, what do you do with the other one? Do you DH him and put Rivera in center, with Willits as his defensive caddy? Who gets third, Figgins or Ztu? And what do you do with McPherson, presuming he can stay healthy long enough for you to do anything?
Brandon Wood, SS, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+We all know about the strikeouts, but if you look at that MLE for a moment ... if a 21-year-old really did put up that line in the majors, I think you’d say there was room to grow. Say he puts up a 230/300/420 at age 22, a 240/320/450 at age 23 ... you can see where this is going. He still has plenty of time.
MLE 418 90 32 2 13 35 171 12 3 216 284 396
8/18 453 125 42 2 25 54 149 19 3 276 355 552 123 Final
7/26 380 108 36 2 22 50 126 14 1 284 371 563 130
7/06 307 92 30 2 18 40 100 11 1 300 385 586 139
6/09 229 67 23 1 13 26 77 7 1 293 373 572 133
5/11 131 36 11 0 8 14 42 3 0 275 356 542 121
4/26 78 25 8 0 5 8 29 1 0 321 386 615 146
He’s always going to have a low average, because he’ll always strike out. But he’s learning to walk, and he’s still got the real ultimate power. And if he can continue to hold down shortstop, that’s pretty damn good.
I’d like to see him put up at least a 300/370/520 line at AAA next year. That won’t knock your socks off, but it will demonstrate some progress. I’m also looking for the walks to continue to go up and the strikeouts to start to come down. Everything else will come into place.
Watch Out:
Who Lvl AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+Hank Conger justified his first-round status by hitting very well in limited time before an injury; he’ll obviously need to continue that at higher levels. Clay Fuller might turn into Reggie Willits type, or could fill out and add some power. Ryan Mount showed the Angel middle infield monopoly goes deep. Norberto Ortiz needs to get a grip on the strike zone, but has demonstrated good power here as well as in the Domincan Summer League (305/387/570 last year). Aaron Peel was unable to follow up on a pretty good season at Rancho; he’s the poor man’s Nick Gorneault. P.J. Phillips struggled, but is still young. Luis Rivera was born on a dark October day in 1986, and hit pretty well in a pretty good pitching environment. Freddy Sandoval is considered the best third-base glove in the Cal League, which in concert with his speed and walks might get him some time as a utility player in the bigs four years down the road. Hainley Statia had a marvelous season at Cedar Rapids, and held his own in the Cal League for a couple of weeks, where he’s likely to do damage next season. Third baseman Matthew Sweeney absolutely lit up the Arizona League, registering second in slugging percentage and home runs. Bobby Wilson held his own as a catcher in AA, and might be a useful reserve in a couple of years.
Conger Azl 69 22 3 4 1 7 11 1 0 319 382 522 174
ClyFuller Azl 157 42 3 5 0 25 47 14 4 268 383 350 108
Mount R 277 79 14 2 9 36 67 10 3 285 370 448 143
Ortiz Azl 171 48 10 4 5 6 45 10 5 281 315 474 135
Peel AA 495 141 37 4 16 28 105 13 11 285 344 473 101
Phillips R 263 63 12 1 6 20 75 11 8 240 298 361 92
Rivera R 242 62 11 2 5 24 65 4 3 256 328 380 107
Sandoval A+ 434 112 28 2 5 59 98 30 8 258 343 366 91
Statia A 417 124 31 1 1 52 54 23 15 297 379 384 123
A+ 60 18 2 1 0 8 7 1 1 300 386 367 99
Sweeney Azl 170 58 11 7 5 23 27 4 1 341 431 576 194
Wilson AA 374 107 26 0 9 33 47 1 6 286 350 428 95
Tuesday, September 05, 2006
THE THING WITH FEATHERS
Some way, somehow, our Lads are staying afloat here, not completely dropping out of the AL West race.
Saturday night, around seven or eight innings into the game (which I was watching very late on the DVR), I was ready to give up on the season. The lead felt insurmountable, given the way we were playing, and the impending loss seemed just too iconic to not have meaning.
Bad hitting, a lead negated by an obviously fatigued and struggling Scot Shields ... after the 9-0 blowout handed us the night before, it was just too much. But, somehow, the Tigers gave us opportunities with errors that we actually took advantage of, and we came out with the extra-inning win. Given the total swing in emotion, from utter hopelessness about the whole season to the jubilant victory, this may have been the best game of the year.
Mike DiGiovanna must have agreed with me and written his coverage of the article in the eighth inning, however, as his report on the game was 98% a discussion of what the Angels have to do next year. No disprespect meant to Mike DiGiovanna, but I repeat: this was maybe the best game of the year. Probably deserved some coverage, don'tcha think?
The last two games have brought us sterling starting efforts from Kelvim and Jered, and Frankie is just on a tear in the ninth inning. I hereby predict that he will give up another run this year, and quite probably blow a lead at some point, but all that early-April talk about his breaking down, his impending injuries, and his unreliability is talk of the past, and a reminder that you always have to take two-week performances with a grain of salt.
Of course, the road is not getting easier. We have six-and-a-half games to make up and 24 games to do it in. Stranger things have happened, but we must confess that the journey from here on is uphill.
One of the things we'll need is a productive Scot Shields. One day, one year, at some point in our history, the Angels are going to have to come to terms with the fact that throwing five gazillion pitches in a junior college game doesn't mean you can pitch nearly every day in the major leagues years later.
The problem, of course, is that with Brendan Donnelly's aging and decline, there's no one else to really go to in key situations. Everyone knows this. It's too late to do something about it this year, but it's something we have to take into account for 2007. But I'd still take a beaten-down Scot Shields over most set-up guys in this league, so I have no problem with the fact that the next month may live and die in large part on him.
Some way, somehow, our Lads are staying afloat here, not completely dropping out of the AL West race.
Saturday night, around seven or eight innings into the game (which I was watching very late on the DVR), I was ready to give up on the season. The lead felt insurmountable, given the way we were playing, and the impending loss seemed just too iconic to not have meaning.
Bad hitting, a lead negated by an obviously fatigued and struggling Scot Shields ... after the 9-0 blowout handed us the night before, it was just too much. But, somehow, the Tigers gave us opportunities with errors that we actually took advantage of, and we came out with the extra-inning win. Given the total swing in emotion, from utter hopelessness about the whole season to the jubilant victory, this may have been the best game of the year.
Mike DiGiovanna must have agreed with me and written his coverage of the article in the eighth inning, however, as his report on the game was 98% a discussion of what the Angels have to do next year. No disprespect meant to Mike DiGiovanna, but I repeat: this was maybe the best game of the year. Probably deserved some coverage, don'tcha think?
The last two games have brought us sterling starting efforts from Kelvim and Jered, and Frankie is just on a tear in the ninth inning. I hereby predict that he will give up another run this year, and quite probably blow a lead at some point, but all that early-April talk about his breaking down, his impending injuries, and his unreliability is talk of the past, and a reminder that you always have to take two-week performances with a grain of salt.
Of course, the road is not getting easier. We have six-and-a-half games to make up and 24 games to do it in. Stranger things have happened, but we must confess that the journey from here on is uphill.
One of the things we'll need is a productive Scot Shields. One day, one year, at some point in our history, the Angels are going to have to come to terms with the fact that throwing five gazillion pitches in a junior college game doesn't mean you can pitch nearly every day in the major leagues years later.
Month 2003 2004 2005 2006Those are ERAs; as you can see, Scot tends to get worse as the season goes on, and as his workload begins to take a toll.
April 0.77 4.91 1.23 1.15
May 2.21 1.10 2.81 1.98
June 2.16 3.79 3.57 4.05
July 2.21 2.45 1.06 3.55
August 5.05 3.00 4.38 4.50
Sept/Oct 3.09 4.42 3.86 4.50
The problem, of course, is that with Brendan Donnelly's aging and decline, there's no one else to really go to in key situations. Everyone knows this. It's too late to do something about it this year, but it's something we have to take into account for 2007. But I'd still take a beaten-down Scot Shields over most set-up guys in this league, so I have no problem with the fact that the next month may live and die in large part on him.
