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Tuesday, June 22, 2004

NOT LACKING AT HOME
I'm sure you heard this on the telecast last night, but John Lackey for the last two seasons has been two different pitchers; a good one at home and a Colonesque one on the road. Is there any reason we should expect this gap to continue?

After last night's sterling perf, The Lackey has a 3.10 ERA at home this year against a 7.91 on the road. The big difference is in home runs allowed and -- well, hell, I'll just show you (BFP = Batters Faced, BABIP = Batting Average allowed on Balls in Play):

John Lackey, Home vs. Road, 2004
WHERE -- BF -- SO/BF -- BB/BF -- HR/BF -- BABIP
Home -- 203 -- .113 --- .059 --- .010 --- .247
Away -- 179 -- .117 --- .061 --- .045 --- .317


It looks like he's had some bad luck defensively on the road (or has given up more screamers) and some good fortune at home. We might expect that to even out a bit (whether the cause is defense or Lackey himself) as the season goes on. Of course, this is a pretty small sample. What did Lack do last year?

Well, last year he had a 3.57 ERA at home and a 5.96 away from the Big E Big A. What do the peripherals tell us about last season?

John Lackey, Home vs. Road, 2003
WHERE -- BF -- SO/BF -- BB/BF -- HR/BF -- BABIP
Home -- 483 -- .174 --- .068 --- .029 --- .273
Away -- 418 -- .160 --- .079 --- .041 --- .319


Lackey was slightly but uniformly better at home last year, too. Of course, there is some degree home field advantage, so that is to be expected. But beyond that, I see no reason to expect Lackey to vastly outperform his road performance at home. I think it's just one of those fluky things that evens out over time.

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