Thursday, September 23, 2004

With ten games left, we are closer to third place than to first. I guess this was true yesterday, as well, I just didn't notice. And if Texas wins at Oakland again today, we'll be tied with Texas at two games back.

Of course, we get to seize destiny by the throat this weekend as we play host to the Oakland Athletic Club, but it's been incredibly frustrating to watch the Lads prove unable to pick up ground as the A's have stumbled against the Lone Stars. Last night the blame can be handed to The Big Fatso, The Big Mango, The Biggest Bust of the Year: Bartolo F. Colon.

I have strong words for Colon, but this is a family sport, so I might as well make this a family site (because I'm sure eleven-year-olds everywhere are falling all over themselves to read Angel blogs). I still maintain that Colon is the number one reason we are not in first place right now. After all the injuries, the inconsistencies, the fact that Colon has been so much worse than average is what's bringing us down.

The AL has a 4.64 ERA this year; Angel Stadium has decreased run scoring by about three percent this year, so applying that park factor to Colon's 5.31 ERA gives us 5.38, which is 16% worse than league average.

If Colon had merely a 4.58 ERA right now (applying the park factor to the league average), he would have allowed 98 earned runs instead of the 114 he has -- a sixteen run swing, which is about a win-and-a-half.

Imagine, if Colon was just a league average pitcher this year, we could be about a game-and-a-half closer right now! Of course, this is slightly better than when I looked at it at the All Star Break -- though our deficit from first place is identical.

There's likely more to say, but in the middle of this post I got slammed with a time-sensitive work project, so I'll see ya on the other side ...

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