Chronicles of the Lads

THE UNBEARABLE LIGHTNESS OF KELVIM ESCOBAR'S RUN SUPPORT
Kelvim Escobar pitches tonight; as you know, he's had a pretty good year. His 3.97 ERA is the best amongst Angel starters, and his 162 strikeouts ranks fourth in the AL. However, his record is only 9-10.

We all know it's because of lousy run support, but how uncommon is this, for a good pitcher to have a mediocre record? Obviously, it's not that uncommon. Brandon Webb has a 3.64 ERA this year, but is 6-15. Dontrelle Willis is 9-9 with a 3.86 ERA. But these random examples tell us nothing ...

... here's what I did. I took every qualifying pitcher season since 2001, and sorted them by various stats: ERA, K/IP, K/BB, WHIP, and then I determined the winning percentage for each group of ten. Actually, Microsoft Excel did that, I just told it to. Here are the top 10 ERA performances by qualifiers since 2001:

Pitcher           Year   W   L   ERA

P. Martinez, Bos  2003  14   4  2.22

P. Martinez, Bos  2002  20   4  2.26

R. Johnson, Ari   2002  24   5  2.32

J. Schmidt, SF    2003  17   5  2.34

K. Brown, LA      2003  14   9  2.39

M. Prior, ChC     2003  18   6  2.43

R. Johnson, Ari   2001  21   6  2.49

D. Lowe, Bos      2002  21   8  2.58

G. Maddux, Atl    2002  16   6  2.62

T. Hudson, Oak    2003  16   7  2.70

Now, these ten pitchers have an winning percentage .751. Pitchers ranked 2-11, in which you drop Pedro v.2003 and add Randy Johnson v.2004, have a winning percentage of .723. The ERA for the top 10 pitchers is 2.44, and for 2-11 it's 2.49.

There are 344 seasons in this sample, and the correlation between any group of ten's ERAs and WPCT is -.909, which is very strong. What's the point of this? The point is to identify seasons similar to Escobar's in respects other than winning percentage and see how many of them have similar winning percentages.

Kelvim's 2004 ranks 153 in the list of ERA. Putting him fifth in a list:

Pitcher           Year   W    L   ERA   WAG

K. Appier, Ana    2002  14   12  3.92  -1.52

B. Radke, Min     2001  15   11  3.94  -0.52

G. Maddux, Atl    2003  16   11  3.96  -0.12

J. Suppan, StL    2004  15    6  3.97  +2.46  

K. Escobar, Ana   2004   9   10  3.97  -2.34  

W. Williams, StL  2004  10    7  3.98  -0.15

C. Sabathia, Cle  2004  11    9  3.98  -0.94

A. Leiter, NYM    2003  15    9  3.99  +0.67

A. Pettitte, NYY  2001  15   10  3.99  +0.08

H. Ramirez, Atl   2003  12    4  4.00  +2.45

This group has a 3.97 ERA, and a winning percentage of .597. That last column is "Wins Above Group"; this group wins .597 of the time, and Escobar is at .474 in 19 decisions, and he has nine wins where we would expect him to have 11 (11.34, actually). Obviously, this group represents Kelvim pretty well in ERA, and just as obviously, it's his winning percentage dragging down the group.

If you take the group where Kelvim Escobar is the best pitcher, you get 10 pitchers with a 4.00 and a winning percentage of .588.

Looking at his comparables in ERA, Kelvim is easily the unluckiest pitcher in that group, when it comes to getting credit for wins.

Kelvim Escobar has struck out .92 men per inning this year, which ranks 37th amongst all of these seasons.

Pitcher         Year     W     L  K/IP   WAG

R. Wolf, Phi    2001    10    11  0.93  -1.55

C. Park, LA     2001    15    11  0.93  +0.70

J. Bere, ChC    2001    11    11  0.93  -1.10

J. Vazquez, Mon 2001    16    11  0.93  +1.15

K. Escobar, Ana 2004     9    10  0.92  -1.45

J. Bonderman,Det2004     9    11  0.91  -2.00  

E. Loaiza, CWS  2003    21     9  0.91  +4.50

C. Finley,Cle/SL2002    11    15  0.91  -3.30

M. Mussina, NYY 2003    17     8  0.91  +3.25

B. Colon, Cle   2001    14    12  0.90  -0.30

This group has a winning percentage of .550. Once again, Kelvim is dragging the mean down, but he is not the worst defender. K/IP doesn't correlate as well to winning percentage; the group in which Kelvim is the best has a winning percentage of .570.

Escobar has a K/BB of 2.45, which ranks 124th amongst these seasons.

Pitcher         Year     W     L  K/BB   WAG

J. Burkett, Bos 2002    13     8  2.48  +1.81

M. Redman, Fla  2003    14     9  2.48  +1.74  

B. Penny, Fla   2003    14    10  2.46  +1.21

J. Weaver, LA   2004    12    10  2.46  +0.27

K. Escobar, Ana 2004     9    10  2.45  -1.13

T. Hudson, Oak  2002    15     9  2.45  +2.21  

C. Silva, Min   2004    11     8  2.45  +0.87  

R. Helling, Tex 2001    12    11  2.44  -0.26

J. ThomsonNN/Col2002     9    14  2.43  -3.26

B. Sheets, Mil  2002    11    16  2.43  -3.39

This group has a winning percentage of .533, and group with Kelvim at the top has one of .522. Once again, Escobar is bringing the group down, though he is not the worst.

Pitcher         Year     W     L  WHIP   WAG

D. Davis, Mil   2004    11    10 1.314  -0.34

S. Trachsel, NM 2003    16    10 1.314  +1.96

A. Burnett, Fla 2001    11    12 1.315  -1.42

H. Nomo, LA     2002    16     6 1.316  +4.12  

K. Escobar, Ana 2004     9    10 1.316  -1.13

A. Eaton, SD    2003     9    12 1.317  -2.34  

C. Sabathia, Cle2004    11     9 1.317  +0.20

J. Kennedy, TB  2002     8    11 1.317  -2.26

C. Zambrano, ChC2003    13    11 1.318  +0.04

R. Drese, Tex   2004    12     8 1.318  +1.20

This group has a winning percentage of .540, and the group with Escobar at the top has one of .527. However, it is clear that Escobar is not particulary unique in this group, except for the fact that he is the only "underachiever" to pitch for a good team.

In fact, that last point is true of every list. Escobar's record is by no means historically unusual; what appears odd is that he's put it up while pitching for a good team. The Angel offense should really be ashamed of themselves, actually. Hopefully they can right the ship against Seattle tonight.