<$BlogRSDURL$>

Thursday, January 06, 2005

BANEMETRICS
BTF has linked to a Baseball America story where Alan Schwarz sits down in a roundtable with Voros McCracken (DIPS creator now consulting with Boston), Gary Huckabay (a Baseball Prospectus founder and analyst for the Oakland A's), Gary Hughes (assistant GM of the Cubs), and the Los Angeles Angels' own scouting director of Anaheim, Eddie Bane.

Bane has caught some flack in the more sabermetrically-leaning sectors of the Halosphere for being more of a throwback than a forward-thinker. But in this interview he comes across as fairly open-minded about things and well-read. Here's one interesting exchange:

ALAN SCHWARZ: One thing that Eddie and Gary, you might not be aware of, is that a few years ago Voros came up with something called Defense Independent Pitching Stats, which . . .

EDDIE BANE: Alan, you said, "You guys may not be aware." That's one of the things we're battling. We are aware. I read these guys' stuff all the time.
Well, take that, Alan Schwarz!

One place where the so-called "Moneyball" types differ from traditional scouts is in their view of high school pitchers. Bill James wrote about what risks high school pitchers were years ago, and this thought process has grown to totally overcome many saber-minded organizations. Bane dismisses that out of hand, but does provide criteria by which the Lads will take a high schooler into the fold:

We’d need at least a three-pitch mix already. Command already. We’d not just take an arm in the first round. We’re trying to get our scouts away from the radar gun as much as possible. So a three-pitch mix with makeup.


I think that's actually a pretty sound recipe, as of course it does seem silly to draft zero high school moundsmen. The Angels haven't developed a high school pitcher in awhile, but it will be interesting to see if the Bane era does produce any.

This was one comment by Bane that gave me pause:

Our job, when we go to a high school game, is there better be some swinging as soon as we get out of the rental car. I’ve never wanted to draft a guy where the first line in the report is, “He’s got a good eye.” We’re looking for guys who swing that bat. And if they’re swinging and missing in high school, we ain’t going to be very interested.
Um, what's so bad about having a good eye? And if a guy is swinging and missing in high school, what does that have to do with having a good eye? If you have a good eye, you're only swinging at pitches you can hit, right?

Here's one of those exchanges that almost invites parody:

ALAN SCHWARZ: But what would you have to see to be encouraged [when scouting a AA hitter in a hypothetical]?

GARY HUGHES: The swing, the approach at the plate, the show of fear.

EDDIE BANE: If you show fear, you're gone.

VOROS McCRACKEN: How would someone show fear?

GARY HUGHES: There would be a little give at the plate.

EDDIE BANE: You give on a pitcher with a decent slider . . .

VOROS McCRACKEN: That happens to everyone--everyone gets their knees buckled every once in a while. So if you rule a guy out that gets his knees buckled, that seems extreme. You'd need to see him show fear a bit more consistently. I'm not sure . . .

EDDIE BANE: I am sure. Because if I see fear in a hitter, I'm not ever coming back. I don't see fear in good big league hitters. I know that they get fooled and they'll bail on balls. But for me, that's a different term than fear.

GARY HUGHES: The best player who ever lived bailed--Willie Mays.
The show of fear, huh? It does seem mighty subjective ... but I actually do know what they mean, and I can't say with certainty that they're wrong.

There is also a passage, which I won't quote here, where Bane pretty much dismisses Steve Andrade after Voros brings him up. So that will be interesting to see play out.

I do, however, think this is healthy:

"I will have read this (statistics) stuff before I go into the ballpark. But I'm going to evaluate him myself as a scout--just as a scout--and I'm going to call Pat Gillick, if he had him in Toronto or Seattle in the past, and go, "Tell me about him." I'm going to get information from the press box. I'm going to work other scouts over. I'm going to know everything I can about this guy. "Yeah, I heard his elbow was hurting him." "No, it wasn't his elbow, he pulled a hamstring." "He had a drinking problem in the past." I'm going to have the DIPS information already. I mean, this stuff if fabulous. But I've got to have the other stuff too--the intangibles.
One thing that many statheads tend to overlook, I believe, is that a player's make-up is a big part of his developments. His work habits, his dedication, etc. Talented players fritz out all the time. If you have two guys with the same performance at the same age at the same level, what can separate them? You can't measure someone's work ethic from the stat line, and we can't overlook that fact. The need for human intelligence to back up performance records is just that: a need. All information need to be taken into account.

Given some of the Angel moves this winter, it doesn't really seem like they're taking a lot into account besides reputation, otherwise there's no way you pay Orlando Cabrera $5M per year than you would have David Eckstein.

Look, amateur scouting is the lifeblood of any major league organization, and minor league scouting ain't far behind. Bane dismisses the possibility that college or minor league stats can be predictive, which I think is dangerous. We know minor league stats are very predictive, and work is beginning to be performed on college (though we're not close yet). An organization has to be open to this information. I mean, Bill James started his work on minor league numbers two decades ago. This isn't exactly new. But these parting comments from Bane give rise to hope:

The future of scouting, and I hope the Angels are ahead of the curve, is we're going to have to understand what Gary Huckabay is writing about. And what Voros McCracken is writing about. We do. And we're going to get it. But the day of not needing a scout to see Mark Rogers and Brendan Donnelly, it's not going to come. I think people were trying to eliminate advance scouting by using Inside Edge or something. That's not working. ...

As far as "Moneyball" goes, I didn't like it. But the respect I have for these two guys today, just hearing them talk, I'm going to get their phone numbers and find out what Boston and Oakland's paying them. I can't tamper, but maybe get permission. This is good stuff. We use it. Maybe we don't acknowledge it enough.

Comments:
視訊做愛視訊美女無碼A片情色影劇aa免費看貓咪論壇彩虹性愛巴士金瓶梅影片交流yam視訊交友xxx383美女寫真kyo成人動漫tt1069同志交友網ut同志交友網微風成人論壇6k聊天室日本 avdvd 介紹免費觀賞UT視訊美女交友自拍密錄館sex888情人輔助品哈啦聊天室豆豆出租名模情人視訊視訊交友網視訊交友90739影片 圖片av168成人日本A片免費下載 金瓶梅影片交流免費A片下載85cc免費影城85cc日本a片情色a片無碼女優 免費色情電影同志聊天室38ga成人無碼a片小魔女免費影片玩美女人影音秀台灣18成人網18禁成人網聊天室ut歐美嘟嘟情人色網影片18禁地少女遊戲a383禁地論壇成人影城18禁av影片無碼線上LIVE免費成人影片sex女優松島楓免費影片咆哮小老鼠論壇色咪咪情色網 視訊熱舞秀ut台中聊天室貓貓論壇豆豆情色風暴視訊xxx383美女寫真? 線上漫畫免費線上a片無碼dvdxvediox日本美女寫真集免費成人電影小魔女自拍天堂av1688影音娛樂網0204movie免費影片咆哮小老鼠論壇85cc免費影城85ccfoxy免費音樂下載免費視訊免費影片成人影城免費a網 免費視訊辣妹彩虹頻道免費短片av1688天使娛樂網辣妹妹影音視訊聊天室視訊網愛聊天室後宮電影電影院蜜雪兒免費小說洪爺情色論壇sexy girl video movie視訊交友90739無碼dvd維納斯成人用品辣妹貼圖a片天堂月光論壇sexy girls get fucked中國性愛城sex520-卡通影片383movie成人影城ut正妹 聊天室倉井空免費a影片伊莉論壇tw 18 net18禁成人網免費性愛影片影音視訊聊天室av168成人視訊交友視訊美女視訊交友
 
Post a Comment

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?