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Monday, January 24, 2005

LACKING OUTS
In follow-up to my post immediately below this one, let's take a look at something else interesting David Pinto has posted today: the defensive support received by each pitcher. I pulled all the Angels out so we could look at them together. The "Rank" figure places each pitcher amongst pitchers that had 300+ balls in play against them for one team, and, as they were on Pinto's list, they are listed by the difference between actual outs and expected outs per ball in play. There were 146 such pitchers in 2004:

Pitcher  Rank   BIP  ActOuts  PredOuts  Difference

Colon 68 626 438 438.68 - .68
Escobar 77 583 407 408.66 - 1.66
Ortiz 89 401 275 277.99 - 2.99
Washburn 101 490 338 344.70 - 6.70
Lackey 140 621 423 447.24 -24.24
Sele 142 470 317 336.88 -19.88
Pretty dismal. In reality, the difference for those top four guys isn't that big a deal, a couple outs here and there at best.

But here's even more evidence of John Lackey getting screwed. Didn't it always seem like he was getting nickel-and-dimed on hits he allowed? Here's an indication that the Angel defense was letting him down.

Here is a goof-off that shouldn't be taken seriously. I take a look at this and say, "Wow, John Lackey threw 24 outs worth that he didn't get credit for." What if we give the guys credit for the outs they should have had behind them by adding it on to their inning pitched total? Imperfect and inelegant, but hey, I don't want to do my work today so I'm going to do it. ERSAA is Earned Runs Saved Above Average, and I'm only doing the returners:

                  Actual                 Adjusted

Pitcher IP ER ERA ERSAA IP ER ERA ERSAA Gain
Colon 208.3 116 5.01 - 9.7 208.6 116 5.01 - 9.6 .1
Kelvim 208.3 91 3.93 +15.3 208.9 91 3.92 +15.5 .2
Wash 149.3 77 4.64 - .8 151.6 77 4.57 + .3 1.1
Lackey 198.3 103 4.67 - 1.9 206.4 103 4.49 + 2.3 4.2
I think our rotation can improve in 2005, and part of the reason is they looked worse in 2004 than they really were. The differences aren't huge for any one guy, but they add up for a team over the course of a year.

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