Chronicles of the Lads

PROBABLISTIC RUNS v.CF
Scroll down for the drill; here's the link to Pinto's post. I'll list the actual runs above average before the numbers prorated to a full season, just because that makes more sense to me.

And another thing: remember, this is just one season, so the below is not meant to represent a player's true talent level. Even if I believed 100% in this method, which I don't, I don't believe Steve Finley is as good a defender as Carlos Beltran, even if we grant the premise that they had defensive seasons of equal quality in 2004.

My hope is that doing this will make comparisons between Pinto's method and UZR, as well as the non-play-by-play metrics, easier. Pinto's giving us plays above expected, which we can convert to plays above average for any one year. So someone's 20 plays better than average, what does that mean? This is the attempt to figure that out.

I should also note that the conversions for outfielders are less exact than those of middle infielders. Practically every ball that gets by a middle infielder is a single. Outfielders, by contrast, allow hits of every stripe. In converting Pinto's outs to runs, we have to make the assumption that each outfielder prevents singles at the same rate he prevents doubles or triples. This assumption is obviously false. However, UZR is, to the best of my knowledge, the only semi-public system that gives an outfielder more credit for preventing a double than preventing a single.

When you're measuring range by a number like Pinto's or zone rating, you're basically measuring OBP Against for a defender. But to figure out runs, you also need SLG. For middle infielders, that's pretty simple, because they're damn near equal. For outfielders, not so much.

All of which is to say that while I'm pretty confident that the numbers I've posted for the middle infielders credibly convert Pinto's numbers to runs, I am far less confident that it will be credible for other positions.

Anyway, here we go with the estimates:

Player            Runs Above Average

                        Actual

Corey Patterson        23.2023

Andruw Jones           17.9346

Jay Payton             13.5458

Mark Kotsay            10.5679

Vernon Wells           10.3257

Wily Mo Pena            8.4441

Tike Redman             6.5660

Jim Edmonds             6.5610

Marquis Grissom         6.5509

Luis Matos              6.4773

Endy Chavez             5.7220

Mike Cameron            5.5610

Luis Terrero            5.2436

Torii Hunter            4.8814

Grady Sizemore          3.8561

Lew Ford                3.1165

Preston Wilson          2.5552

Scott Podsednik         1.2540

Laynce Nix              1.0132

Milton Bradley          0.7521

Rocco Baldelli          0.6342

Coco Crisp              0.6181

Nook P Logan            0.5977

Kenny Lofton           -1.4825

Craig Biggio           -1.8034

Juan Pierre            -1.9508

Marlon Byrd            -2.3406

Jason Michaels         -2.9727

Aaron Rowand           -5.3107

Johnny Damon           -5.3634

Carlos Beltran         -5.4549

Steve Finley           -5.7894

Jeromy Burnitz         -6.0519

Chone Figgins          -7.7018

David DeJesus         -11.2500

Alex Sanchez          -12.5832

Ken Griffey Jr.       -15.4196

Randy Winn            -16.9601

Garret Anderson       -18.7756

Bernie Williams       -24.9356

Player            Runs Above Average

                     per 4000 BIP

Wily Mo Pena           27.8975

Corey Patterson        24.2383

Jay Payton             17.2400

Andruw Jones           17.2343

Grady Sizemore         14.9376

Luis Terrero           14.5414

Lew Ford               12.1327

Vernon Wells           11.7733

Mark Kotsay            11.1039

Luis Matos             10.7882

Tike Redman             7.2156

Preston Wilson          7.1436

Jim Edmonds             7.0270

Endy Chavez             6.9334

Marquis Grissom         6.9037

Mike Cameron            5.9033

Torii Hunter            5.8416

Nook P Logan            2.0338

Laynce Nix              1.4788

Milton Bradley          1.2868

Scott Podsednik         1.2095

Coco Crisp              1.0063

Rocco Baldelli          0.7800

Juan Pierre            -1.8269

Kenny Lofton           -3.5727

Marlon Byrd            -4.1219

Craig Biggio           -4.4031

Carlos Beltran         -5.1461

Steve Finley           -5.5767

Johnny Damon           -5.6515

Aaron Rowand           -6.8090

Jason Michaels        -11.8849

Jeromy Burnitz        -14.9184

David DeJesus         -19.0537

Randy Winn            -20.5267

Alex Sanchez          -24.1691

Ken Griffey Jr.       -29.6898

Chone Figgins         -29.7593

Garret Anderson       -31.3781

Bernie Williams       -38.1217

The suckage of the Angel "centerfielders" of Anaheim should come as no surprise. And we do have the pleasing result of having both Andruw Jones and Jim Edmonds coming out pretty well; Zone Rating thinks Edmonds is pretty good and hates Jones, where UZR loves Jones and thinks Edmonds is terrible. So that seems to make sense.

There are surprises, though. Let's compare to UZR again:

Player    PMR    UZR    Difference

Winn      -17    +22        39

Griffey   -15    -52        37

Edmonds   + 7    -24        31

Grissom   + 7    -19        26

Nix       + 1    -23        24

Finley    - 6    -28        22

Payton    +13    +34        21

Rowand    - 5    +16        21

Bernie    -25    -44        19

Chavez    + 6    +22        16

Burnitz   - 6    -22        16

Baldelli  + 1    -15        16

Redman    + 7    +20        13

Patterson +23    +32        11

Hunter    + 5    +16        11

Kotsay    +11    + 9         2

Garret    -19    -17         2

As you can see, there are some huge, huge differences here. I'm sure part of that is because of what I discussed up top: not all outfielders prevent the same type of hits equally. But that can't be the only explanation.

(By the way, anyone have any ideas on how Ken Griffey Jr. was -52 runs in 78 games? That's what UZR is, and that just seems crazy. -52 runs!)