Tuesday, April 12, 2005
FUN WITH WIN EXPECTANCY!
The Win Expectancy craze is sweeping the baseballosphere, and I am nothing if not a follower of trends and a thief of ideas.
What is Win Expectancy? WE basically says, here's a situation where your team has a 50% chance of winning (say, leading off the top of the 10th when the score is 6-6), and you did something (maybe you hit a home run) that raised the chances of your team winning to 80.1%. You would get credited .301 of a win, the pitcher would be so debited, and so forth.
It's Studes who makes this accessible, having created a user-friendly worksheet for same with Jon Daly and posted it for download on his website.
I wanted to play around with the worksheet, so I entered in yesterday's dramatic come-from-behind victory to see what it spat out. Here are the totals for the game:
That *** you see in the middle of the Texas list is for Washburn's wild pitch.
Anyway, that doesn't account for defense at all, so it's not perfect, but I played around with it, so I just thought I would share.
The Win Expectancy craze is sweeping the baseballosphere, and I am nothing if not a follower of trends and a thief of ideas.
What is Win Expectancy? WE basically says, here's a situation where your team has a 50% chance of winning (say, leading off the top of the 10th when the score is 6-6), and you did something (maybe you hit a home run) that raised the chances of your team winning to 80.1%. You would get credited .301 of a win, the pitcher would be so debited, and so forth.
It's Studes who makes this accessible, having created a user-friendly worksheet for same with Jon Daly and posted it for download on his website.
I wanted to play around with the worksheet, so I entered in yesterday's dramatic come-from-behind victory to see what it spat out. Here are the totals for the game:
Player WPA
Cabrera .301
Erstad .286
Rodriguez .258
Shields .217
Anderson .156
Finley .130
Bootcheck .044
J.Molina -.015
Izturis -.020
B.Molina -.028
Merloni -.077
Guerrero -.077
DaVanon -.117
Rivera -.142
Figgins -.165
Washburn -.253
TEAM: .498
Rogers .193
Dellucci .098
Allen .091
Blalock .088
Brocail .083
*** .038
Barajas .021
Bukvich .019
Soriano .018
Teixeira -.025
Hidalgo -.050
Young -.092
Cordero -.129
Shouse -.155
Mench -.180
Dickey -.242
Matthews -.273
TEAM -.498
That *** you see in the middle of the Texas list is for Washburn's wild pitch.
Anyway, that doesn't account for defense at all, so it's not perfect, but I played around with it, so I just thought I would share.
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