Tuesday, April 12, 2005

The Win Expectancy craze is sweeping the baseballosphere, and I am nothing if not a follower of trends and a thief of ideas.

What is Win Expectancy? WE basically says, here's a situation where your team has a 50% chance of winning (say, leading off the top of the 10th when the score is 6-6), and you did something (maybe you hit a home run) that raised the chances of your team winning to 80.1%. You would get credited .301 of a win, the pitcher would be so debited, and so forth.

It's Studes who makes this accessible, having created a user-friendly worksheet for same with Jon Daly and posted it for download on his website.

I wanted to play around with the worksheet, so I entered in yesterday's dramatic come-from-behind victory to see what it spat out. Here are the totals for the game:

Player     WPA
Cabrera .301
Erstad .286
Rodriguez .258
Shields .217
Anderson .156
Finley .130
Bootcheck .044
J.Molina -.015
Izturis -.020
B.Molina -.028
Merloni -.077
Guerrero -.077
DaVanon -.117
Rivera -.142
Figgins -.165
Washburn -.253
TEAM: .498

Rogers .193
Dellucci .098
Allen .091
Blalock .088
Brocail .083
*** .038
Barajas .021
Bukvich .019
Soriano .018
Teixeira -.025
Hidalgo -.050
Young -.092
Cordero -.129
Shouse -.155
Mench -.180
Dickey -.242
Matthews -.273
TEAM -.498

That *** you see in the middle of the Texas list is for Washburn's wild pitch.

Anyway, that doesn't account for defense at all, so it's not perfect, but I played around with it, so I just thought I would share.

Well, it's offical. Sabremetrics has jumped the shark so badly, it's landed in Kern County.
I thought you said that would be fun?
Well, it was fun for me ...
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