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Monday, August 15, 2005

WATCH LIST UPDATE
I last did this nearly three weeks ago, on July 27th.

Erick Aybar
SS, AA Arkansas

When?  AB   H   2B   3B   HR   BB   SO   AVG  OBP  SLG
Now 450 132 24 7 7 23 45 293 338 424
Then 383 106 22 7 4 19 41 277 325 402
Erick bounces back a bit from a little tiny slump. For the record, his line now isn't far off of Alberto Callaspo's when he was promoted to AAA (297/346/409), so, with Brandon Wood's demolition job on California League pitching, why hasn't Aybar re-joined Callaspo in Salt Lake? The answer must be Brian Specht's 315/388/495 line at AAA. Aybar and Wood are both young for their leagues, so there's no need to rush.

Alberto Callaspo
2B, AAA Salt Lake

When?  AB   H   2B   3B   HR   BB   SO   AVG  OBP  SLG
Now 130 36 12 2 0 6 8 277 307 400
Then 51 11 2 2 0 4 2 216 268 333
Callaspo is trying to make a quick study of PCL pitching, and hitting .316 with 10 doubles over the last three weeks is a good sign. Still, you'd like to see some more walks, because one base on balls per week isn't really gonna cut it.

Nick Gorneault
OF, AAA Salt Lake

When?  AB   H   2B   3B   HR   BB   SO   AVG  OBP  SLG
Now 411 116 21 10 19 44 102 282 350 521
Then 345 99 18 9 18 38 85 287 356 548
A bit of a power outage for Gorneault, accompanied by a slight raise in an already-high strikeout rate. Still, very much in the range of what we should expect from him.

Howie Kendrick
2B, AA Arkansas

When?  AB   H   2B   3B   HR   BB   SO   AVG  OBP  SLG
Now 109 38 12 1 3 3 11 349 368 560
Then 41 14 5 0 1 0 4 341 341 537
Blah blah hits, blah blah free swinging, blah blah power, blah blah he slumped a bit and has been hot since, but maybe he's slumping if he's not hitting .370.

REMOVAL: Baltasar Lopez
I hadn't intended to remove anyone, but when you start the season suspended for PED use, then end up a Cal League backup, I don't need to watch you anymore. Sorry.

Warner Madrigal
OF, A Cedar Rapids

When?  AB   H   2B   3B   HR   BB   SO   AVG  OBP  SLG
Now 346 84 15 1 12 17 76 243 281 396
Then 292 68 14 1 12 15 67 233 273 411
Oh, good, now he's even losing the power.

Jeff Mathis
C, AAA Salt Lake

When?  AB   H   2B   3B   HR   BB   SO   AVG  OBP  SLG
Now 355 100 23 2 15 34 74 282 343 485
Then 307 88 21 2 14 32 65 287 354 505
On a down curve in his roller coaster. If the Angels elect to give him the catching job next year, I think having a reliable backup is going to be paramount. Keeping Mathis well-rested should be a big help to his production.

Kendry Morales
1B, AA Arkansas

When?  AB   H   2B   3B   HR   BB   SO   AVG  OBP  SLG
Now 200 48 8 0 10 13 32 240 290 430
Then 135 32 5 0 4 8 23 237 280 363
The power's starting to come, he's gaining a few more walks, but the average is still stuck in neutral. Still, he's making progress all-around.

Mike Napoli
C/1B, AA Arkansas

When?  AB   H   2B   3B   HR   BB   SO   AVG  OBP  SLG
Now 364 84 18 1 25 77 114 231 370 492
Then 315 76 18 1 19 67 99 241 380 486
He had been 15-109 (.138 average) over the previous month, and going 8-49 gets him to 23-158 (.146) going back to early July. He can still hit the ball over the bence, but, as you see, he has many more strikeouts than hits, which is not a good recipe.

Sean Rodriguez
SS, A Cedar Rapids

When?  AB   H   2B   3B   HR   BB   SO   AVG  OBP  SLG
Now 372 93 22 3 10 65 69 250 371 406
Then 310 81 20 3 6 57 58 261 388 403
Last year, in 196 AB at Cedar Rapids, S-Rod hit 250/333/393. So, we have 568 at-bats at A that tell us the guy is a .250 hitter at that level, with a SLG around .400. The plate discipline is encouraging, and he is very young, but he'll have to drag that average up to get noticed in the crowded Angel middle infield prospect picture.

But, for encouragement, Brandon Wood at Cedar Rapids last season, at age 19: 251/322/404 in 478 AB. Rodriguez is 20, but still, clearly, has a lot of room to grow.

Drew Toussaint
2B/OF, A Cedar Rapids

When?  AB   H   2B   3B   HR   BB   SO   AVG  OBP  SLG
Now 338 89 23 2 17 40 108 263 346 494
Then 281 79 20 2 16 31 86 281 356 537
As he comes down the stretch in his first full pro season, Drew's numbers have been in a big tailspin. His strikeouts, which have haunted him all season, have ballooned: over the last three weeks, he has K'd in 38.6% of his at-bats. Whether this is fatigue, regression to the mean, or the league catching up with him, I don't know.

Mark Trumbo
1B, R Orem

When?  AB   H   2B   3B   HR   BB   SO   AVG  OBP  SLG
Now 209 57 20 0 4 15 51 273 320 426
Then 142 39 15 0 3 7 38 275 307 444
He lost some power, but the 8:13 BB:K ratio he's posted over the last three weeks is a huge improvement over what has come before. He's still raw.

Reggie Willits
OF, AA Arkansas

When?  AB   H   2B   3B   HR   BB   SO   AVG  OBP  SLG
Now 410 122 19 4 2 49 63 298 372 378
Then 343 102 16 4 0 43 52 297 376 367
Consistent.

Brandon Wood
SS, A Rancho Cucamonga

When?  AB   H   2B   3B   HR   BB   SO   AVG  OBP  SLG
Now 464 145 41 4 35 42 112 313 377 644
Then 391 126 35 3 34 36 83 322 386 688
He had gone on a 491/542/962 tear for a few weeks, so it was unlikely he was going to keep that up. There is still little to complain about here.

Nick Adenhart
SP, Arizona League

When?   W   L   SV   G  GS    IP    H   HR   SO   BB   ERA
Now 1 1 0 10 9 28.0 27 0 32 19 4.82
Then 0 1 0 7 7 16.0 15 0 16 17 5.63
There we go! 16 K's against only 2 BB's in 12 IP is totally sweet, and I'll let him give up a hit per inning while he manages that. Looks like his recovery is coming along nicely.

Steve Andrade
RP, AA New Hampshire (Blue Jays org)

When?   W   L   SV   G  GS    IP    H   HR   SO   BB   ERA
Now 3 2 3 28 0 40.7 20 3 58 15 2.43
Then 1 2 3 22 0 31.7 12 2 43 10 2.27
FREE STEVE ANDRADE!

Daniel Davidson
SP, AA Arkansas

When?   W   L   SV   G  GS    IP    H   HR   SO   BB   ERA
Now 12 5 0 24 22 136.3 147 13 97 37 4.03
Then 9 5 0 21 19 113.3 124 11 84 34 4.53
He's on fire, and is offsetting a somewhat high hit rate with fantastic control (only three walks in his last 23 innings). Maybe you'd like to see more strikeouts, but he's a finesse kind of guy, and has really settled in at AA.

Gustavo Espinoza
SP, Arizona League

When?   W   L   SV   G  GS    IP    H   HR   SO   BB   ERA
Now 4 2 0 11 10 58.0 56 2 60 10 3.72
Then 3 1 0 7 6 38.7 28 0 34 6 1.63
Gustavo's had a couple of rough starts of late (in one, he fell apart in the fifth after four good innings; in another, he got beat up in the first before settling down a bit), but he still has healthy peripherals. There's nothing wrong with his line so far.

Abel Moreno
Stuck in the Dominican thanks to visa problems, and has not played.

Steve Shell
SP, AA Arkansas

When?   W   L   SV   G  GS    IP    H   HR   SO   BB   ERA
Now 9 7 0 24 24 140.7 153 16 120 53 4.35
Then 7 7 0 20 20 114.7 122 16 94 45 4.40
Shell, like Davidson, has really settled down after some shakiness threatened to make his year at AA something of a relative loss (much like his initial year in the Cal League). A twenty-two-year-old having that kind of success at AA is no bad thing.

Von Stertzbach
RP, AA Arkansas

When?   W   L   SV   G  GS    IP    H   HR   SO   BB   ERA
Now 3 5 10 40 0 44.7 51 8 40 21 5.24
On the DL.

Jered Weaver
SP, AA Arkansas

When?   W   L   SV   G  GS    IP    H   HR   SO   BB   ERA
Now 1 1 0 4 4 19.0 23 4 20 10 5.68
Then 0 0 0 1 1 4.0 7 1 2 1 6.75
Home runs and walks will kill you, and Jered has met with too many of these in the Texas League. He's a bit of a flyball pitcher, so hopefully he'll learn to get the ball down a bit and keep it in the park.

Bob Zimmerman
RP, A Rancho Cucamonga

When?  W   L   SV   G  GS    IP    H   HR   SO   BB   ERA
Now 6 7 13 45 0 51.3 43 3 59 24 3.68
Then 5 7 10 35 0 40.3 37 2 48 18 3.57
That newest win came on a blown save, so don't get too excited. Still, the strikeouts are nice -- too many walks, though.

Comments:
Good stuff. How are you getting the weekly/monthly splits?

Weaver needs a split-fingered fastball or a sinkerball of some kind generally, as Rich Lederer suggested earlier in the year (scroll all the way down to the comments). The Texas League is too full of hitter's parks, some of which are either at elevation or in chronically dry environments, both of which help hitters. The same is even more true in the PCL.
 
The splits are by hand -- I just do it based on previous Watch Lists I've done.
 
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