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Tuesday, September 13, 2005

WATCH LIST SUMMARY: PITCHERS
I did this for the batters a few days ago. Again, I present each player's statistics from each time I did a Watch List Update, to give some sense of the arc of each guy's season. No postseason play has been included.

Nick Adenhart
SP, Arizona League and R Orem

When  W   L   SV   G  GS    IP    H   HR   SO   BB   ERA
9/09 1 0 0 1 1 6.0 3 0 7 0 0.00 R Final
2 3 0 13 12 44.0 39 0 52 24 3.68 AZL Final
8/15 1 1 0 10 9 28.0 27 0 32 19 4.82
7/24 0 1 0 7 7 16.0 15 0 16 17 5.63
7/11 0 0 0 4 4 8.7 5 0 9 9 1.04
The Angels took a gamble in drafting Adenhart, who, though a top-flight prospect in terms of tools, was coming off Tommy John surgery and had already committed to college. The draw of the pros overwhelmed him, though, and he signed with the Angels, as you see. Starting slowly -- to be expected coming off the surgery and rehab -- Adenhart really kicked it in from August on, striking out 43 against just 7 walks over his last 34 innings, spread over two levels. In short: he's probably ahead of schedule. The kid's only nineteen, so he won't be rushed, but this is an impressive professional debut.

Steve Andrade
RP, AA New Hampshire (Blue Jays org)

When  W   L   SV   G  GS    IP    H   HR   SO   BB   ERA
9/09 3 2 3 35 0 50.3 23 3 71 16 1.97 AA Final
8/15 3 2 3 28 0 40.7 20 3 58 15 2.43
7/27 1 2 3 22 0 31.7 12 2 43 10 2.27
7/11 1 2 1 16 0 22.7 9 1 28 10 2.78
6/16 1 2 1 13 0 19.0 6 0 22 7 1.89
5/24 0 2 1 12 0 17.0 4 0 20 7 1.59
5/04 0 1 0 6 0 7.7 2 0 11 2 1.17
4/19 0 0 0 3 0 4.7 0 0 7 1 0.00
I hate this. Yes, Andrade's a bit old for his league. But someone who dominates AA to this extent deserves more than 13 and 2/3 decent innings at AAA to prove he can't handle a promotion. Either this guy goes around raping cats or some people in charge are just looking the other way. I'm betting on the latter; if he's not in AAA somewhere next year, heads will roll. Free the man, already. FREE STEVE ANDRADE!

Daniel Davidson
SP, AA Arkansas

When  W   L   SV   G  GS    IP    H   HR   SO   BB   ERA
9/09 13 5 0 28 26 154.3 179 22 110 45 4.72 AA Final
8/15 12 5 0 24 22 136.3 147 13 97 37 4.03
7/27 9 5 0 21 19 113.3 124 11 84 34 4.53
7/11 7 4 0 18 16 97.0 110 11 63 31 4.64
6/16 5 3 0 13 12 71.3 XX 7 51 22 4.54
5/24 4 1 0 8 7 42.3 51 4 28 11 4.04
5/04 3 1 0 5 5 25.3 37 2 18 7 3.91
4/19 2 0 0 2 2 11.7 14 0 8 1 2.31
A season of ups and downs for Davidson, he really came on strong from mid-July to mid-August, but seemed to hit a bit of a wall, completely falling apart from that point onward, including a horrific start in the AA Championship Series that saw him give up five earned runs while recording only one out (as a postseason start, that's not recorded here). As a tall, finesse lefty, Davidson strikes me (and this is without seeing him, just going by numbers and reputation only) as a Jamie Moyer type, and that kind of pitcher has to walk a fine line. I would imagine there will be room for Davidson at AAA next year; he'll have to demonstrate he can hold up for an entire season to appear a viable candidate for Angel Rotations Yet to Come. (Note that I don't know how many hits he had allowed as of June 16, as I had a typo in my original post.)

Gustavo Espinoza
SP, Arizona League, R Orem, and A Cedar Rapids

When  W   L   SV   G  GS    IP    H   HR   SO   BB   ERA
9/09 1 0 0 1 1 5.3 5 1 3 1 1.69 A Final
0 0 0 1 0 2.0 3 0 1 0 9.00 R Final
5 3 0 13 12 70.3 72 3 78 12 3.84 AZL Final
8/15 4 2 0 11 10 58.0 56 2 60 10 3.72
7/27 3 1 0 7 6 38.7 28 0 34 6 1.63
Gustavo came out of the gate annihilating everybody, but the league caught up to him a little bit before he finished off his season with some appearances at higher levels. No worry. It was his first season in the United States, and his K:BB makes me weep. He's still a long way off, but there's a lot of potential here, and health permitting, his name is going to shoot up some prospect lists in the next couple of years. He and Adenhart are a highly intriguing one-two punch.

Steve Shell
SP, AA Arkansas

When  W   L   SV   G  GS    IP    H   HR   SO   BB   ERA
9/09 10 8 0 27 27 159.7 175 18 126 58 4.57 AA Final
8/15 9 7 0 24 24 140.7 153 16 120 53 4.35
7/27 7 7 0 20 20 114.7 122 16 94 45 4.40
7/11 5 6 0 17 17 93.7 105 16 72 39 5.00
6/16 3 4 0 13 13 70.7 81 12 54 30 4.84
5/24 1 4 0 9 9 50.0 55 9 45 21 4.68
5/04 1 2 0 5 5 27.7 29 4 21 10 4.88
4/19 0 1 0 3 3 13.7 17 2 8 8 6.59
Shell struggled in his first season at A before coming on to dominate in his second year, so his struggles through mid-July this year were no surprise or worry. But then he got hot -- and then, like Davidson, finished off the regular season with some mediocre starts. Still, a pretty good effort overall, and Shell may well find himself in Salt Lake next season. Like Davidson, it appears he may have to build up more endurance -- his numbers through 140 2/3 innings are fine, but the next 19 are lackluster in nearly every respect.

Von Stertzbach
RP, AA Arkansas

When  W   L   SV   G  GS    IP    H   HR   SO   BB   ERA
9/09 3 5 10 44 0 51.7 60 8 42 25 5.23 AA Final
8/15 3 5 10 40 0 44.7 51 8 40 21 5.24
7/27 3 5 10 40 0 44.7 51 8 40 21 5.24
7/11 3 4 10 36 0 41.3 45 6 39 21 4.79
6/16 3 3 8 28 0 31.3 36 4 27 16 4.60
5/24 1 2 5 19 0 22.7 26 3 21 10 4.37
5/04 1 0 5 12 0 12.0 13 2 9 7 4.50
4/19 1 0 3 6 0 7.3 8 1 4 3 4.91
Stertzbach struggled, then had an injury. This is a pretty forgettable season, Texas League or no, with Stertzbach posting disappointing numbers across the board. Relievers are prone to a lot of variation, so hopefully he can get back on track in 2006.

Jered Weaver
SP, A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Arkansas

When  W   L   SV   G  GS    IP    H   HR   SO   BB   ERA
9/09 3 3 0 8 8 43.0 43 5 46 19 3.98 AA Final
8/15 1 1 0 4 4 19.0 23 4 20 10 5.68
7/27 0 0 0 1 1 4.0 7 1 2 1 6.75
4 1 0 7 7 33.0 25 3 49 7 3.82 A Final
7/11 2 1 0 5 5 20.0 21 3 28 4 5.85
Jered finally signed, and at both levels got off to rocky starts before settling down. The two main concerns I see from his line are his walks and his home runs. The walks are likely due to an adjustment -- at each level Weaver achieves, his opponents have a better sense of the strike zone, so he can't always rack up strikeouts on pitches out of the zone. This is an adjustment all pitchers have to make, and I think Weaver shall.

The other thing, the home runs, is more troubling. Rich Lederer, president of Jered Weaver is Awesome, has Weaver's groundball-to-flyball ratio this year as .40 -- he allows five flyballs to two groundballs. This is, um, unique, and threatens to make Weaver susceptible to the longball for the duration of his career.

Now, guys like Robin Roberts and Bert Blyleven could make the strikeout/home run thing work because of their great control. So if Weaver does clamp down on the walks, that will go some way toward abating the problem. But it still seems like it might be incumbent upon him to integrate some kind of two-seamer or sinker into his repertoire, just to help alleviate the problem. This is part of the development he will go through in 2006, whether he starts at AA or AAA. His strikeouts are very promising, and his hits are fine for their leagues, so, overall, this was a good professional debut.

Bob Zimmerman
RP, A Rancho Cucamonga

When  W   L   SV   G  GS    IP    H   HR   SO   BB   ERA
9/09 6 8 17 52 0 59.7 50 3 62 27 3.32 A Final
8/15 6 7 13 45 0 51.3 43 3 59 24 3.68
7/27 5 7 10 35 0 40.3 37 2 48 18 3.57
7/11 4 7 7 29 0 33.0 34 2 41 17 4.36
6/16 3 6 6 23 0 26.0 27 2 32 16 4.50
5/24 1 4 6 18 0 18.3 20 1 22 12 4.42
5/04 1 3 3 11 0 10.7 14 1 11 5 6.75
4/19 1 2 1 5 0 4.7 8 1 8 3 11.57
The Lonesome Hobo spent the whole year bringing his ERA down after a disastrous few opening innings. Such is the plight of the relief pitcher, and the job is made even harder having to toil in the California League. If you take out those first 4 2/3 innings, you get a guy with a 2.62 ERA over 55 innings, striking out 54 against 24 walks, allowing only two home runs out of 42 hits. So Zimmerman actually had a pretty decent year. The next test will be at AA.

Comments:
According to my source in the Blue Jays organization, Andrade got hurt at the wrong time. He had some arm trouble this year, and he doesn't throw that hard.
 
Regarding Daniel Davidson's hits on July 1, he had 64.
 
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