Friday, December 02, 2005
OFF-TOPIC: DREW OLSON VS. MATT LEINART
With the huge game between UCLA and the University of Second Choice just over twenty-four hours away, many may ask themselves: who is having the better season, Drew Olson or Matt Leinart?
Matt Leinart, who is taking one "class" at U$C, is the one getting Heisman attention, but his cross-town counterpart is college football's highest-rated passer. Of course, $C has had a slightly more difficult schedule than has UCLA.
Here is how each quarterback has performed against common opponents; the Passer Rating I use here is the NFL Passer Rating, not the bizarre inflated college figure. (Though technically the NFL Rating caps off at 158.3, I've gone ahead and left it unfettered here, which only applies to a couple of games for each QB.)
How about performances against other opponents? Both QB's had games that I would consider to be their "exhibition" season:
How about against "good" non-common opponents?
Let's look at their opponents more carefully.
Here is every non-UCLA opponent Oklahoma has played this season, and how they fared in the passing game:
Either way you cut it, you can make the argument that Drew Olson had the best game of any passer against the Sooner defense this season. The one guy close is -- no surprise -- Vince Young, who bests Olson in Yards Per Attempt but falls short in every other category. (Remember, I'm looking at passing only, not rushing exploits.) Texas Tech QB Corey Hodges, who threw for over 4000 yards this season, had a comparable day statistically against Texas (42 of 64 for 369 yards, 2 TD to 1 Int, and a 84.7 passer rating) to the day he had against Oklahoma. I'm willing to say that the Sooners had a good pass defense, and Olson deserves credit for putting up the day against them that he did: he was the only opposing QB to rack up more than 300 yards against them and the only to complete more than 70% of his passes. Aside from leading in yards and completion percentage, his game ranks first in passer rating and second in Yards Per Attempt.
Let's get to $C's opponents. Here's the ridiculously overrated Notre Dame:
How about Fresno State, which put quite a scare into $C? Well, I could run the whole chart, but it's a really, really pathetic set of opponents, aside from Oregon. Jumping to the chase: Leinart's game ranks third in yards, tied for third in completion percentage, fifth in Yards Per Attempt, and third in passer rating amongst the Bulldogs' eleven opponents. In other words, a very solid effort.
As for the non-conference "good" team schedule, Olson had arguably the best game of anyone against Oklahoma, and Leinart has around the third-best game against Fresno State and a very middle-of-the-road game against Notre Dame. Who gets the edge there? It's close, but I think that edge goes to Drew.
The other "good" opponents were a matched-pair of conference opponents, as you can see above. Oregon is a considerably better team than Oregon State, and Leinart had a good game against them. Drew Olson's game against the inferior Beavers was outrageous, and I think those games are basically a push.
Their performances, to this point, have been quite close, though, and I think you could make an argument for either one, but I doubt you could make an argument that would convince a skeptic.
There is, of course, one more game that will help sort out this matter, and that happens tomorrow. We can expect both quarterbacks to be at the top of their game, and hopefully we'll all be able to witness a Bruin victory for the ages.
With the huge game between UCLA and the University of Second Choice just over twenty-four hours away, many may ask themselves: who is having the better season, Drew Olson or Matt Leinart?
Matt Leinart, who is taking one "class" at U$C, is the one getting Heisman attention, but his cross-town counterpart is college football's highest-rated passer. Of course, $C has had a slightly more difficult schedule than has UCLA.
Here is how each quarterback has performed against common opponents; the Passer Rating I use here is the NFL Passer Rating, not the bizarre inflated college figure. (Though technically the NFL Rating caps off at 158.3, I've gone ahead and left it unfettered here, which only applies to a couple of games for each QB.)
Olson LeinartWe see that their performances against common opponents are pretty equitable. Though that might seem in large part due to Drew's cartoonish game against Arizona State, well ... that game happened. It counts. And, in terms of rating, Drew outperformed Leinart in three of the six common match-ups. (I would say that their respective performances against Washington State are basically a tie.)
Opponent Com Att Yd Pct TD Int Yd/A Rtg Com Att Yd Pct TD Int Yd/A Rtg
Washington 29 44 287 .659 2 2 6.52 80.4 20 26 201 .769 4 0 7.73 149.7
Cal 17 33 225 .515 2 0 6.82 93.6 20 32 246 .625 0 1 7.69 73.2
WSU 31 43 338 .721 5 1 7.86 124.0 24 34 364 .706 3 1 10.71 122.7
Stanford 24 35 293 .686 2 0 8.37 113.2 22 28 259 .786 4 0 9.24 153.7
Arizona 22 38 232 .579 2 0 6.11 93.3 26 40 360 .650 2 1 9.00 100.0
ASU 22 27 510 .815 5 0 18.89 210.4 23 39 258 .590 0 0 6.62 78.8
Total 145 220 1885 .659 18 3 8.57 114.3 135 199 1688 .678 13 3 8.48 109.5
How about performances against other opponents? Both QB's had games that I would consider to be their "exhibition" season:
Olson LeinartLeinart has the advantage in the exhibition season.
Opponent Com Att Yd Pct TD Int Yd/A Rtg Com Att Yd Pct TD Int Yd/A Rtg
Rice 18 25 296 .720 3 0 11.84 151.4
SDSU 10 15 152 .667 0 0 10.13 99.9
Arkansas 18 24 381 .750 4 0 15.88 186.3
Hawaii 18 24 332 .750 3 1 13.83 146.5
Total 28 40 448 .700 3 0 11.20 132.1 36 48 713 .750 7 1 14.85 166.4
How about against "good" non-common opponents?
Olson LeinartThough Olson has the better numbers, it is immediately apparent that (1) Leinart faced tougher opponents and (2) Leinart had to play tougher opponents more often.
Opponent Com Att Yd Pct TD Int Yd/A Rtg Com Att Yd Pct TD Int Yd/A Rtg
Oregon St 16 24 262 .667 6 0 10.92 186.5
Oklahoma 28 38 314 .737 3 0 8.26 124.2
Fresno St 22 33 200 .667 1 0 6.06 93.1
Notre Dame 17 32 301 .531 0 2 9.41 59.5
Oregon 23 39 316 .590 3 1 8.10 99.9
Total 28 40 448 .700 3 0 11.20 132.1 62 104 817 .596 4 3 7.86 85.3
Let's look at their opponents more carefully.
Here is every non-UCLA opponent Oklahoma has played this season, and how they fared in the passing game:
Oklahoma DefenseYou can see we're starting to chase our tail a bit ... did Oklahoma have a marvelous pass defense, or did they face a large number of poor passing teams? Or a little of both?
Opponent Com Att Yd Pct TD Int Yd/A Rtg
TCU 24 45 287 .533 1 0 6.38 80.5
Tulsa 24 36 246 .667 0 1 6.83 74.5
Kansas St 14 29 226 .483 2 1 7.79 83.4
Texas 14 27 241 .519 3 0 8.93 119.5
Kansas 11 30 86 .367 0 3 2.87 2.9
Baylor 20 44 228 .455 3 0 5.18 84.3
Nebraska 26 46 267 .565 3 2 5.80 77.0
Texas A&M 12 35 158 .343 2 1 4.51 56.6
Texas Tech 24 37 232 .649 2 2 6.27 77.8
Okla. St 10 27 126 .370 0 1 4.67 37.0
Total 176 356 2097 .503 16 11 5.89 70.6
Either way you cut it, you can make the argument that Drew Olson had the best game of any passer against the Sooner defense this season. The one guy close is -- no surprise -- Vince Young, who bests Olson in Yards Per Attempt but falls short in every other category. (Remember, I'm looking at passing only, not rushing exploits.) Texas Tech QB Corey Hodges, who threw for over 4000 yards this season, had a comparable day statistically against Texas (42 of 64 for 369 yards, 2 TD to 1 Int, and a 84.7 passer rating) to the day he had against Oklahoma. I'm willing to say that the Sooners had a good pass defense, and Olson deserves credit for putting up the day against them that he did: he was the only opposing QB to rack up more than 300 yards against them and the only to complete more than 70% of his passes. Aside from leading in yards and completion percentage, his game ranks first in passer rating and second in Yards Per Attempt.
Let's get to $C's opponents. Here's the ridiculously overrated Notre Dame:
Notre Dame DefenseAmongst Notre Dame opponents, Leinart's game against them ranked seventh in completion percentage (out of eleven), sixth in yards, third in Yards Per Attempt, and eighth in passer rating. It's hard to argue that Leinart's performance in that game was exceptional, relative to other QB's that faced off against the Irish.
Opponent Com Att Yd Pct TD Int Yd/A Rtg
Pittsburgh 20 35 220 .571 1 1 6.29 73.5
Michigan 19 44 223 .432 1 1 5.07 57.3
Mich. St 16 27 327 .593 3 1 12.11 123.5
Washington 25 37 327 .676 1 0 8.84 104.2
Purdue 33 58 350 .569 2 1 6.03 79.0
BYU 26 45 317 .578 2 2 7.04 75.9
Tennessee 13 32 187 .406 1 2 5.84 44.7
Navy 4 10 75 .400 1 1 7.50 58.3
Syracuse 9 22 78 .409 1 1 3.55 47.2
Stanford 23 35 347 .657 3 0 9.91 126.7
Total 188 345 2451 .545 16 10 7.10 80.5
How about Fresno State, which put quite a scare into $C? Well, I could run the whole chart, but it's a really, really pathetic set of opponents, aside from Oregon. Jumping to the chase: Leinart's game ranks third in yards, tied for third in completion percentage, fifth in Yards Per Attempt, and third in passer rating amongst the Bulldogs' eleven opponents. In other words, a very solid effort.
As for the non-conference "good" team schedule, Olson had arguably the best game of anyone against Oklahoma, and Leinart has around the third-best game against Fresno State and a very middle-of-the-road game against Notre Dame. Who gets the edge there? It's close, but I think that edge goes to Drew.
The other "good" opponents were a matched-pair of conference opponents, as you can see above. Oregon is a considerably better team than Oregon State, and Leinart had a good game against them. Drew Olson's game against the inferior Beavers was outrageous, and I think those games are basically a push.
Their performances, to this point, have been quite close, though, and I think you could make an argument for either one, but I doubt you could make an argument that would convince a skeptic.
There is, of course, one more game that will help sort out this matter, and that happens tomorrow. We can expect both quarterbacks to be at the top of their game, and hopefully we'll all be able to witness a Bruin victory for the ages.
Comments:
Post a Comment
