Tuesday, January 24, 2006
PMR REDUX -- SHORTSTOPS
UPDATE: David Pinto just posted that there was a data error and he'll be re-posting his 2B and SS figures. So I'll update these two posts once the corrected info has been been posted.
UPDATE TWO: Okay, the new figures are up.
David Pinto has starting posting his Probabilistic Model of Range figures for individual players for the 2005 season. Last season, I built on the work of others to convert these figures into a Fielding Runs measure. I have used that same exact method for the new batch of PMR numbers, which you can see below.
Note that David has two different models that he's using, so I'll present the conversion for both. As a further caveat, note that David's method bases "average" on a multi-year sample, so a group of shortstops for any one year may be well below or above average. As I described last year, I try to determine what the average was for the season in question. As I'm going off the following players only, it's likely not exactly the average, but it's probably pretty close.
1. Pinto says (in his original post), "Cristian Guzman, who was near the top of the list last year, fell off in 2005. His ability to catch line drives did not hold up, indicating his good range rating was somewhat lucky." Whether or not range models should include line drives for infielders was a matter of debate after PMR figures were released last season, and this will add fuel to the fire. See more below after the groundball figures.
2. Jhonny Peralta did very well by Zone Rating (converting to around 10 runs better than average by Chris Dial's translation) and 18 runs above average by Clay Davenport's figures at Baseball Prospectus. PMR comes to a very different conclusion, obviously, so there's an item of interest.
3.Yeah, I think Derek Jeter's an overrated defender, too (by the media, anyway), but -45 runs? Really? That is a buttload of runs. I find that difficult to fathom.Okay, that's been fixed.
4. I'm not really clear on the difference between Pinto's two methods. As you can see, most players come out the same. Angel Berroa, however, is nearly seven runs off. He doesn't really shake out all that well either way, though ...
I also present the above numbers prorated per 4000 Balls in Play, roughly the number of Balls in Play for which a defender will be on the field in around 150-155 games or so.
UPDATE: David has now posted groundball-only figures, which were corrected here. To wit:
UPDATE: David Pinto just posted that there was a data error and he'll be re-posting his 2B and SS figures. So I'll update these two posts once the corrected info has been been posted.
UPDATE TWO: Okay, the new figures are up.
David Pinto has starting posting his Probabilistic Model of Range figures for individual players for the 2005 season. Last season, I built on the work of others to convert these figures into a Fielding Runs measure. I have used that same exact method for the new batch of PMR numbers, which you can see below.
Note that David has two different models that he's using, so I'll present the conversion for both. As a further caveat, note that David's method bases "average" on a multi-year sample, so a group of shortstops for any one year may be well below or above average. As I described last year, I try to determine what the average was for the season in question. As I'm going off the following players only, it's likely not exactly the average, but it's probably pretty close.
Original Method Alternative MethodA few comments:
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Total Total
Julio Lugo 30.3060 30.6745
Clint Barmes 21.6215 23.2271
Rafael Furcal 18.6187 17.3270
Adam Everett 17.1248 16.1343
Omar Infante 13.3182 13.8870
Jason Bartlett 12.5500 14.1624
Juan Castro 8.8689 8.7269
Alex Gonzalez 7.9299 7.6025
Jimmy Rollins 7.1464 10.9119
John McDonald 6.7196 8.3421
Wilson Valdez 6.4422 5.1605
Neifi Perez 6.2213 7.4977
Omar Vizquel 4.7362 0.7711
Bobby Crosby 4.6608 3.4797
Y. Betancourt 4.4671 3.6534
Edgar Renteria 2.3882 4.4775
Jack Wilson 2.3709 -1.5266
Miguel Tejada 0.8588 1.1615
Juan Uribe 0.3001 1.2196
Bill Hall -0.1360 0.9690
Carlos Guillen -0.7786 -1.8993
Oscar M Robles -1.2426 -2.4077
David Eckstein -1.6618 -0.1098
J.J. Hardy -2.8563 -2.7983
Khalil Greene -3.7904 -2.5383
Orlando Cabrera -5.1198 -6.6749
Cesar Izturis -5.2704 -4.1645
Cristian Guzman -5.7870 -6.7124
Mike Morse -5.8071 -4.5081
Marco Scutaro -9.6736 -10.0283
Derek Jeter -13.2134 -14.3688
Russ M Adams -13.4525 -13.4673
Royce Clayton -13.8171 -18.4288
Jhonny Peralta -15.0402 -14.8627
Felipe Lopez -18.5375 -21.2106
Angel Berroa -18.5556 -10.7785
Michael Young -19.2755 -17.3725
Jose Reyes -22.9404 -25.8656
1. Pinto says (in his original post), "Cristian Guzman, who was near the top of the list last year, fell off in 2005. His ability to catch line drives did not hold up, indicating his good range rating was somewhat lucky." Whether or not range models should include line drives for infielders was a matter of debate after PMR figures were released last season, and this will add fuel to the fire. See more below after the groundball figures.
2. Jhonny Peralta did very well by Zone Rating (converting to around 10 runs better than average by Chris Dial's translation) and 18 runs above average by Clay Davenport's figures at Baseball Prospectus. PMR comes to a very different conclusion, obviously, so there's an item of interest.
3.
4. I'm not really clear on the difference between Pinto's two methods. As you can see, most players come out the same. Angel Berroa, however, is nearly seven runs off. He doesn't really shake out all that well either way, though ...
I also present the above numbers prorated per 4000 Balls in Play, roughly the number of Balls in Play for which a defender will be on the field in around 150-155 games or so.
Original Method Alternative Method
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Per 4000 BIP Per 4000 BIP
Omar Infante 43.2060 45.0511
Clint Barmes 39.1516 42.0591
Jason Bartlett 28.4258 32.0780
Julio Lugo 28.2113 28.5543
John McDonald 21.9774 27.2839
Wilson Valdez 21.5098 17.2305
Juan Castro 19.9862 19.6663
Adam Everett 18.2762 17.2191
Rafael Furcal 18.1160 16.8591
Y. Betancourt 12.5303 10.2480
Alex Gonzalez 9.6383 9.2404
Bobby Crosby 8.6191 6.4349
Neifi Perez 8.2239 9.9110
Jimmy Rollins 7.1572 10.9283
Omar Vizquel 4.7079 0.7665
Edgar Renteria 2.3192 4.3482
Jack Wilson 2.2367 -1.4402
Miguel Tejada 0.8026 1.0855
Juan Uribe 0.3043 1.2363
Bill Hall -0.3758 2.6786
Carlos Guillen -1.6102 -3.9282
David Eckstein -1.6178 -0.1069
Oscar M Robles -3.7855 -7.3348
J.J. Hardy -4.0731 -3.9905
Khalil Greene -4.8549 -3.2511
Orlando Cabrera -5.5260 -7.2044
Cristian Guzman -6.4210 -7.4479
Cesar Izturis -7.3738 -5.8265
Derek Jeter -12.4920 -13.5843
Royce Clayton -14.8931 -19.8640
Russ M Adams -15.6743 -15.6915
Jhonny Peralta -16.1030 -15.9130
Mike Morse -16.1646 -12.5487
Angel Berroa -16.7243 -9.7148
Michael Young -17.5311 -15.8004
Felipe Lopez -19.4926 -22.3035
Marco Scutaro -19.5426 -20.2593
Jose Reyes -21.3003 -24.0164
UPDATE: David has now posted groundball-only figures, which were corrected here. To wit:
Original Method Alternative Method
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Total Per 2000 GB Total Per 2000 GB
Rafael Furcal 22.8501 22.2928 21.8263 21.2939
Adam Everett 14.1594 15.2662 14.2795 15.3957
Julio Lugo 13.2646 14.6327 15.2485 16.8213
Clint Barmes 12.7294 24.4327 11.9875 23.0087
Neifi Perez 11.0532 14.2898 11.8922 15.3745
Jason Bartlett 9.4244 22.7918 11.4019 27.5741
Juan Castro 9.1198 20.4709 8.5606 19.2156
Jack Wilson 8.5939 8.6328 8.3519 8.3897
Carlos Guillen 8.2124 17.2893 7.0146 14.7677
Jimmy Rollins 8.0040 8.3636 10.1397 10.5953
Bobby Crosby 7.5397 15.0945 7.9313 15.8786
Omar Infante 6.9832 24.6321 6.6027 23.2898
John McDonald 6.7182 21.9907 6.9146 22.6338
Cesar Izturis 5.3243 7.2737 6.3308 8.6487
Alex Gonzalez 3.6172 4.4990 4.2075 5.2332
Miguel Tejada 3.0328 2.9373 2.8896 2.7986
Wilson Valdez 2.9356 10.9741 1.5425 5.7662
Khalil Greene 1.7908 2.5276 1.5601 2.2020
Y. Betancourt 1.4873 4.6696 1.0366 3.2546
Edgar Renteria 0.7811 0.8408 4.2835 4.6109
David Eckstein -0.1372 -0.1242 2.1914 1.9841
J.J. Hardy -1.0394 -1.6591 -1.5330 -2.4469
Bill Hall -1.0622 -3.3720 0.1990 0.6317
Cristian Guzman -2.9543 -3.7278 -1.1848 -1.4950
Omar Vizquel -3.0723 -3.3595 -6.9121 -7.5584
Orlando Cabrera -3.2899 -4.0072 -4.5319 -5.5200
Oscar M Robles -4.1598 -13.9122 -5.8792 -19.6628
Marco Scutaro -4.9382 -10.7235 -4.3544 -9.4558
Royce Clayton -6.7640 -7.3322 -11.1871 -12.1270
Mike Morse -7.8776 -26.1280 -7.2123 -23.9213
Juan Uribe -10.1849 -11.1922 -9.3474 -10.2718
Derek Jeter -10.7470 -10.2941 -15.3193 -14.6736
Felipe Lopez -12.2765 -14.3837 -14.0356 -16.4447
Russ M Adams -14.3640 -17.4532 -14.9092 -18.1156
Angel Berroa -15.0073 -14.3748 -15.3042 -14.6592
Jose Reyes -15.2780 -15.0374 -13.7785 -13.5615
Jhonny Peralta -18.9201 -21.8856 -16.5715 -19.1688
Michael Young -25.7148 -24.0438 -24.1380 -22.5694
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