Monday, January 30, 2006
PMR REDUX, THIRD BASEMEN
David Pinto has posted his PMR figures for groundballs-only. Here are the run converions; I've done something different, though. Before, to represent the "per 150 games" figure, I presented Runs Per 4000 Balls in Play (or, for groundball-only figures, 2000 groundballs). A comment by somoene named GuyM over on this BTF thread made me re-think this, and now I present the rate as an expression of Runs Per X Predicted Outs, where X is different based on what position I'm dealing with (or if we're dealing with groundballs alone or with all batted balls).
Why do this? Well, looking at two players on the below list ... per PMR, Brandon Inge was on the field for 2,135 groundballs, and would be expected to make roughly 342 outs. Alex Rodriguez was on the field for 2,153 groundballs, or 18 more than Inge ... but he's only expected to make around 253 outs. I have Inge at +.5651 runs per PMR, which would be .5294 per 2000 groundballs, but is .4549 per 275 predicted outs. Obviously, the difference here is incredibly slight as Inge is so close to average, but for extreme players it can make a real difference.
Anyway, here's the groundball-only, for David Pinto's original and "smoothed visitor" PMR modles; I'll have all batted balls below that:
Here we go with the numbers for all batted balls:
David Pinto has posted his PMR figures for groundballs-only. Here are the run converions; I've done something different, though. Before, to represent the "per 150 games" figure, I presented Runs Per 4000 Balls in Play (or, for groundball-only figures, 2000 groundballs). A comment by somoene named GuyM over on this BTF thread made me re-think this, and now I present the rate as an expression of Runs Per X Predicted Outs, where X is different based on what position I'm dealing with (or if we're dealing with groundballs alone or with all batted balls).
Why do this? Well, looking at two players on the below list ... per PMR, Brandon Inge was on the field for 2,135 groundballs, and would be expected to make roughly 342 outs. Alex Rodriguez was on the field for 2,153 groundballs, or 18 more than Inge ... but he's only expected to make around 253 outs. I have Inge at +.5651 runs per PMR, which would be .5294 per 2000 groundballs, but is .4549 per 275 predicted outs. Obviously, the difference here is incredibly slight as Inge is so close to average, but for extreme players it can make a real difference.
Anyway, here's the groundball-only, for David Pinto's original and "smoothed visitor" PMR modles; I'll have all batted balls below that:
Original Method Alternative MethodThe only real surprises here come near the middle, where we find perennial Gold Glover Eric Chavez and the acclaimed David Wright. Don't really know what's going on there ... also interesting to see A-Rod right around average, as other zone-based measures peg his 2005 as being pretty awful. There's always something screwy with the numbers for the left side of the Yankee defense, though.
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Total Per 275 Opp Total Per 275 Opp
David Bell 11.7800 12.6144 15.2790 16.6722
Pedro Feliz 11.7578 28.6115 13.6808 34.0719
Aaron Boone 10.9794 12.0628 10.1791 11.1573
Scott Rolen 10.4266 24.1458 11.4463 26.8372
Morgan Ensberg 9.8072 10.5154 10.2077 10.9846
Freddy Sanchez 9.6542 23.9180 11.9218 30.3565
Corey Koskie 8.8148 18.6223 6.1738 12.7433
Chone Figgins 7.9606 29.5353 7.8199 28.9979
Wilson Betemit 6.7847 24.5305 7.2256 26.3709
Joe Crede 6.6201 8.4680 7.7798 10.0359
Bill Mueller 6.3734 7.6607 10.1193 12.4394
Abraham Nunez 5.9801 9.3306 6.6860 10.5012
Melvin Mora 5.8763 6.2036 5.0814 5.3532
E. Encarnacion 5.5288 15.5686 4.9698 13.9176
Adrian Beltre 4.1304 4.7256 6.1447 7.1176
Dallas McPherson 4.0202 15.8912 5.1781 20.9472
Rob Mackowiak 2.0959 5.4267 2.2683 5.8936
Alex Rodriguez 1.5131 1.6435 6.2020 6.9101
Eric Chavez 1.3894 1.4309 1.2301 1.2679
Brandon Inge 0.5651 0.4549 -2.1927 -1.7499
Alex S Gonzalez 0.4040 0.7255 1.5013 2.7250
David Wright 0.0713 0.0656 -3.3858 -3.0747
Aramis Ramirez -0.6016 -0.8502 -1.8474 -2.5945
Garrett Atkins -0.7439 -0.8716 -2.0914 -2.4374
Bill Hall -2.7318 -9.2597 -2.3726 -8.1010
S. Hillenbrand -3.0919 -9.5472 -3.7313 -11.4379
Sean Burroughs -3.8216 -7.8440 -6.1099 -12.2977
Mike Cuddyer -4.2929 -6.7111 -4.0334 -6.3277
Russell Branyan -4.2988 -15.2656 -5.0316 -17.6897
Mike Lowell -4.6936 -5.7969 -5.5603 -6.8458
Chipper Jones -5.5794 -10.0035 -3.9371 -7.1688
Mark Teahen -7.0882 -8.7887 -7.2170 -8.9573
Jorge Cantu -10.0251 -30.0414 -10.3838 -31.0150
E. Alfonzo -12.1101 -21.6195 -10.1375 -18.4258
Hank Blalock -15.0618 -14.6113 -12.2744 -12.0772
Troy Glaus -18.1002 -16.2767 -24.0243 -21.1238
V. Castilla -19.0580 -25.2430 -24.9218 -31.9391
Joe Randa -21.2554 -25.1408 -21.8364 -25.7914
Here we go with the numbers for all batted balls:
Original Method Alternative Method
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Total Per 300 Opp Total Per 300 Opp
E. Encarnacion 14.8947 34.8849 12.4298 28.4586
David Bell 13.9397 12.2885 18.1285 16.2476
Morgan Ensberg 13.6466 12.5175 12.8936 11.8052
Pedro Feliz 13.3177 27.5785 15.5460 32.8623
Chone Figgins 9.9101 30.3526 9.9088 30.3857
Brandon Inge 9.7409 6.8514 6.5857 4.5941
Freddy Sanchez 8.9168 19.2505 11.5450 25.5533
Wilson Betemit 8.3402 25.8583 8.6895 27.0983
Corey Koskie 7.8757 13.9641 5.0322 8.7485
Abraham Nunez 7.8250 11.1130 9.1892 13.1695
Aaron Boone 7.8099 7.2303 7.5823 7.0209
Scott Rolen 7.7628 16.7868 9.0655 19.8559
Alex Rodriguez 6.1188 5.5513 10.2433 9.4519
Joe Crede 5.2749 5.4493 5.9326 6.1527
Bill Mueller 5.1183 5.1744 12.2386 12.7708
Melvin Mora 4.5104 3.9696 3.0066 2.6343
Alex S Gonzalez 3.9578 5.8521 5.8382 8.7438
Adrian Beltre 3.1304 2.7856 3.9008 3.4850
Rob Mackowiak 2.8876 6.5494 3.7543 8.5938
D. McPherson 1.7515 5.3963 3.1354 9.8484
Chipper Jones 0.1858 0.2760 2.4367 3.6747
Eric Chavez -1.8816 -1.5695 -2.4671 -2.0558
Mark Teahen -1.9091 -1.9369 -2.2740 -2.3061
Jeff Cirillo -2.5424 -8.5824 -3.4265 -11.4368
Mike Lowell -3.0025 -3.1194 -0.7523 -0.7901
S. Hillenbrand -3.9415 -10.1954 -4.7537 -12.2025
Bill Hall -4.1193 -11.3950 -3.6088 -10.0533
Sean Burroughs -4.4691 -7.5710 -6.8512 -11.4257
Russell Branyan -5.2988 -15.1539 -5.1887 -14.8757
David Wright -5.5053 -4.2754 -9.6860 -7.4293
Aramis Ramirez -5.8546 -6.9706 -8.1484 -9.6025
Garrett Atkins -8.3099 -8.4310 -10.0935 -10.1755
Edgardo Alfonzo -9.4601 -13.7681 -7.9685 -11.7167
Mike Cuddyer -9.7145 -13.1610 -8.8392 -12.0475
Troy Glaus -15.8773 -12.5420 -22.1237 -17.1404
Hank Blalock -17.9240 -14.7555 -16.8201 -13.9151
Joe Randa -18.6226 -17.3239 -18.6716 -17.3851
Jorge Cantu -19.0362 -47.8536 -19.6940 -49.2268
V. Castilla -19.4940 -18.2660 -25.6902 -23.5273
Comments:
Very auspicious for the Angels defensively, should they decide to install Figgins majority-time at 3B. Looking at your second column, Figgins would be the sharpest scooper in the AL if given a full season.
# posted by 
: 3:11 PM
: 3:11 PM
Not surprised by Figgie's high marks; he was spectacular at times. Also not surprised by D-Mac's passable numbers; he wasn't the disaster some predicted.
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: 9:28 PM
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