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Wednesday, April 26, 2006

WATCH LIST UPDATE
It's been nearly three weeks since the minor league season began, so here's how our guys have done in that time.

Position Players

Erick Aybar, SS, AAA Salt Lake, BB/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG
Now 78 27 2 2 2 5 10 6 4 346 393 500
As always, Erick is hitting for average, but, like usual, that's about all he's doing offensively. Still, a very good start in his first exposure to AAA.


Michael Collins, C, A Rancho Cucamonga, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG
Now 67 25 5 1 2 4 10 0 1 373 427 567
A very hot start for the young catcher. He's not yet drawing as many walks as his record indicates he might, but it's still early and you can't complain about a hot bat.


Nick Gorneault, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG
Now 73 20 2 1 4 5 18 0 1 274 321 493
Think he's upset that Reggie Willits got the call and he didn't? Slow start at AAA or no, Gorneault has established himself at the minor league level, so if the Angels aren't going to bring him up to replace an injured Juan Rivera, they just don't have this guy in their plans. He could still be a good throw-in on a trade, assuming we had a GM who ever made trades.


Howie Kendrick, 2B, AAA Salt Lake and MLB Angels, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG
Now 70 27 8 0 2 1 11 3 2 386 403 586
I suspect he'll get a start this afternoon, as the Tigers face a lefty for a day game antecedent to a night game, which is a usual time to rest regulars, anyway. Perhaps we'll soon see if he can maintain his high level of hitting with his, um, unconventional K:BB ratios at the highest level of the game.


Warner Madrigal, OF, A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG
Now 64 17 0 0 0 4 16 2 0 266 309 266
Starting his third straight season at Cedar Rapids, Warner's offense has completely stalled, as he hasn't even notched an extra-base hit so far this season. He gets one more week until he gets booted from the Watch List to the Watch Out.


Kendry Morales, 1B/DH, AAA Salt Lake, BB/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG
Now 74 18 1 0 3 1 13 0 2 243 253 378
As you may recall, Kendry started off pretty slowly in AA last season before really turning it on in August. As such, his slow start this year doesn't bother me. And it really doesn't bother Casey Kotchman.


Mike Napoli, C, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG
Now 62 16 5 0 2 6 20 1 1 258 352 435
A very typical line of strikeouts, walks, and batting averages for Napoli; he hasn't really found his power stroke yet, however. There's no way he's going to consistently hit over .250 while striking out one out of every three at-bats.


Sean Rodriguez, SS, A Rancho Cucamonga, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG
Now 58 23 4 1 3 2 16 4 1 397 429 655
Our center fielder of the future (keep your fingers crossed) is off to a nifty start at the High-A level. As with all Angel prospects, what bothers me here are the strikeouts and walks -- Sean does have a good track record with the latter, so I'm going to assume he's only drawn two bases on balls so far because he's been hitting the ball so well. Still, he needs to cut down on those strikeouts.

Honestly, he doesn't project as a high-average hitter at higher levels, but with the walks could put up an average of .250 with an OBP of .350. He'll have to maintain enough power as he moves up to keep pitchers honest, where they will fear him just enough to throw him some wide ones every now and then.

My ideal scenario was for S-Rod to hit 320/440/520 at Rancho this year, so the early returns on that are good (his Cedar Rapids line last year, relative to league, would have been equal to a 274/394/490 at his current level).


Drew Toussaint, OF, A Rancho Cucamonga, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG
Now 62 17 6 0 3 7 20 1 0 274 357 516
To be honest, that line isn't all that impressive for the California League, though obviously it's way too early in the season to worry about it. He does have some pop, and he's second on the team in walks, so it's an okay start, though he'll have to put up a big year in this league to not get lost in the system.


Mark Trumbo, 1B/3B, A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG
Now 48 8 0 0 1 3 12 1 0 167 226 229
Yikes.


Reggie Willits, CF/LF, AAA Salt Lake and MLB Angels, BB/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG
Now 47 14 4 1 1 4 6 6 4 298 353 489
His call-up is more a matter of contingency than his forcing the issue; he came up to spot defense and to be a pinch-runner, which looks to be his longterm fate in the majors unless his lead-off skills are further honed.


Brandon Wood, SS, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG
Now 78 25 8 0 5 8 29 1 0 321 386 615
I love everything here, except for the strikeouts. The fact that he's starting to draw walks is a very good sign; with his power, he's going to be pitched around, and he needs to learn to take those free bases instead of making outs on bad pitches. His incredibly high strikeout level indicates to me that he has yet to learn that lesson. He's still very young, but even if he develops to the worst case (a third basemen who hits 250/320/550), he still projects as a valuable player.


Watch Out: Brett Martinez, Dallas Morris, Ryan Mount, Aaron Peel, P.J. Phillips, Freddy Sandoval, Hainley Statia, Bobby Wilson


Pitchers

Nick Adenhart, RHSP, A Cedar Rapids
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 3 0 0 4 4 24.7 14 1 24 5 1.46
Ace.


Steve Andrade, RHRP, AAA Omaha (Royals Organization)
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 0 0 0 4 0 7.0 2 0 10 3 2.57
Yes, I am just this stubborn.


NEW ADDITION!
Jose Arredondo, RHSP, A Cedar Rapids
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 0 0 0 4 4 19.7 21 0 32 7 2.75
Arredondo is a converted infielder with an obviously live arm, and his early-season performance moves him from Watch Out to Watch List with ease.


Daniel Davidson, LHSP, AA Arkansas
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 0 1 0 4 4 23.7 27 2 12 9 4.56
The man who would be our own Jamie Moyer is off to a rocky start in his second year at Arkansas. Falling down the organizational depth chart with every ball four issued.


Gustavo Espinoza, LHSP
Our in-house Johan Santana clone, I have no idea why he hasn't started the season at Cedar Rapids. Visa troubles? Arm troubles? Does anyone know?


Tommy Mendoza, RHSP, A Cedar Rapids
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 1 1 0 4 4 23.7 25 1 17 3 3.42
The top fastball in the system is off to a solid if unspectacular start.


NEW ADDITION!
Rafael Rodriguez, RHSP, A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Arkansas
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 0 0 0 1 1 6.0 6 3 3 2 6.00 AA
Now 3 0 0 3 3 17.0 15 0 20 2 0.53 A Final
Another guy who moves onto the list with a lights-out early-season performance, one that's already gained him a promotion. He did struggle in his first Texas League start, but anyone who can give up less than a run per inning in the California League is worth keeping your eye on. Note: his fastball/slider style is considered pretty similar to another Rodriguez you may know about.


Steve Shell, RHSP, AA Arkansas and AAA Salt Lake
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 0 0 0 1 0 3.0 2 1 3 0 6.00 AAA
Now 1 2 0 3 3 18.0 20 1 10 4 4.00 AA
Bartolo Colon's injury started a chain reaction that got Steve Shell moved up from AA (where he pitched decently last season) to AAA. I don't know if he'll move back to Arkansas when everything returns to normal; he's young enough where repeating a level isn't really a setback (he has already repeated at High-A Rancho), so we'll just have to see what happens.


Von Stertzbach, RHRP
He ended last season on the DL, and there is no record of his having played so far this season.


Jered Weaver, RHSP, AAA Salt Lake
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 2 1 0 4 4 23.0 23 4 26 4 3.91
People like pointing out that Angel hitters have inflated numbers due to their hitting environments. There is some truth to that, and for the flipside we have to remember that this affects our pitchers, too. A 3.91 ERA is pretty good in the PCL, and the strikeout-to-walk ratio is exquisite. Jered still seems to be having trouble getting the ball down and therefore keeping it in the ballpark, but it's a good performance overall, and with Hector Carrasco having pitched himself out of the rotation, we may soon learn if the Big A is the kind of friendly environ that will suit Weaver the Younger's skills.


Bob Zimmerman, RHRP, AA Arkansas
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 0 2 2 7 0 8.7 13 2 7 1 10.38
He got hammered to open the season last year at Rancho, then straightened out and had a good balance of the year. He'll need to perform a similar trick this season against tougher competition.


Watch Out: David Austen, Trevor Bell, Stephen Marek

Comments:
You have room for Willits on the Watch List, but not Tommy Murphy? C'mon, Murphy's clearly the better overall athlete, and has really turned it around since 2004.

And howzabout updating that pitchers watch list with some new blood: Nick Green, Joe Torres (back from injury), Stephen Marek (throws 98 mph and has limited his opponents to one run or less in 8 of 14 professional appearances)...plus Bobby Mosebach is worth watching.

Also, what about our two AAA acquisitions, Bulger and Moseley? You simply can't ignore Bulger's 17 Ks over 11.2 innings and shining zero ERA, can you?
 
Well, the list is already big. The guys you mention are guys I'm looking at -- Marek is on the Watch Out list, who are the guys who may move onto the main list at any moment. He's pitched very well so far, and if he keeps that up, I'll put him on.

Bulger is also pitching very well, and I may find room for him. But there's already 23 guys.

Tommy Murphy may well take over for Warner Madrigal; I'm well aware that he is considered the top athlete in the system, but he only started turning that athleticism into performance last season ... at age 26 ... repeating a level ... where his performance wasn't really all that great. My eye is on him, though.
 
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