<$BlogRSDURL$>

Tuesday, May 02, 2006

EXPECTATIONS
Last night's 1-0 loss to the Athletics exposed the impotency of our offense and wasted a fantastic start by Hector Carrasco. Adding to the frustration was that our guys hit four consecutive balls right on the button in our eighth and ninth innings, and all we got out of it was one lousy single. But such is life.

A lot of people were projecting mediocrity for the Angel offense, and thus for the team, before this season, so I'm sure they see our current performance as vindication. I always maintained that our offense should be in the middle-of-the-pack; we entered yesterday's game ranked a poor eleventh in the league, and I don't even want to look and see if last night knocked us back even further.

What I do want to see is whether or not we can reasonably expect this offense to improve. So I've looked at pre-season projections for our batters, using two different projection systems. One is the "Marcel the Monkey" system, developed by Tango Tiger. This is designed to be the simplest projection system possible, simply averaging a batter's past few seasons and applying an age adjustment. It is designed only to predict the predictable.

It doesn't include any minor league numbers, so to get fair projections of our youngest players I've also turned to Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections, which he posts over at the Primer. Longtime readers may recall that I've fooled around with a projection system from time to time; my projections are often very similar to Dan's.

Anyway, what you see here are the actual Linear Weights Runs Above Average each of our hitters has produced thus far, as well as what was projected by Marcel and ZiPS for each player, prorated to how many plate appearances they've had.

Don't worry, if you want to skip the chart, the punchline comes at the end.
Player      Actual    Marcel   Diff    ZiPS   Diff
Molina - 7.7 - 2.5 - 5.2 - 3.3 - 4.4
Mathis - 5.9 - 0.0 - 5.9 - 2.0 - 3.9
Kotchman -10.1 - 0.5 - 9.6 - 1.5 - 8.6
Kennedy + 0.2 - 1.0 + 1.2 - 1.4 + 1.6
Figgins + 0.5 - 0.8 + 1.3 - 0.7 + 1.2
Cabrera + 1.1 - 2.5 + 3.6 - 3.2 + 4.3
Anderson + 1.0 - 1.0 + 2.0 - 1.5 + 2.5
Erstad - 5.2 - 2.2 - 3.0 - 2.6 - 2.6
Guerrero + 1.5 + 5.0 - 3.5 + 6.4 - 4.9
Rivera - 1.1 - 0.3 - 0.8 - 0.1 - 1.0
Alfonzo - 5.0 - 0.7 - 4.3 - 0.8 - 4.2
Izturis + 0.6 - 0.7 + 1.3 - 0.6 + 1.2
Quinlan + 0.2 - 0.3 + 0.5 - 0.5 + 0.7
Salmon - 1.0 - 0.9 - 0.1 - 1.2 + 0.2
Kendrick - 1.3 ----- - 1.3 - 0.2 - 1.1
TOTAL -32.2 - 8.4 -25.8 -13.2 -19.0
(To read that: Jose Molina has been -7.7 runs against average this season [note: none of these figures are park-adjusted], Marcel projected he'd be -2.5 after having as many plate appearances as he's had, so he's -5.2 against expectations. ZiPS had him at -3.3 at this point, or -4.4 against expectations. In other words, he's been around five runs worse than we would have expected.)

To sum up, our offense has been around 20 to 25 runs worse than we could have reasonably expected them to be to this point. That's around two wins. And two wins is the difference between being 14-12 and 12-14.

So we should be better than we are now. We only have four regulars who are out-performing expectations, and all of those overperformances are slight compared to the lack we're getting from the rest of the lineup.

If these guys can't turn it around and play like they're supposed to, it's their own fault.

Comments:
視訊做愛視訊美女無碼A片情色影劇aa免費看貓咪論壇彩虹性愛巴士金瓶梅影片交流yam視訊交友xxx383美女寫真kyo成人動漫tt1069同志交友網ut同志交友網微風成人論壇6k聊天室日本 avdvd 介紹免費觀賞UT視訊美女交友自拍密錄館sex888情人輔助品哈啦聊天室豆豆出租名模情人視訊視訊交友網視訊交友90739影片 圖片av168成人日本A片免費下載 金瓶梅影片交流免費A片下載85cc免費影城85cc日本a片情色a片無碼女優 免費色情電影同志聊天室38ga成人無碼a片小魔女免費影片玩美女人影音秀台灣18成人網18禁成人網聊天室ut歐美嘟嘟情人色網影片18禁地少女遊戲a383禁地論壇成人影城18禁av影片無碼線上LIVE免費成人影片sex女優松島楓免費影片咆哮小老鼠論壇色咪咪情色網 視訊熱舞秀ut台中聊天室貓貓論壇豆豆情色風暴視訊xxx383美女寫真? 線上漫畫免費線上a片無碼dvdxvediox日本美女寫真集免費成人電影小魔女自拍天堂av1688影音娛樂網0204movie免費影片咆哮小老鼠論壇85cc免費影城85ccfoxy免費音樂下載免費視訊免費影片成人影城免費a網 免費視訊辣妹彩虹頻道免費短片av1688天使娛樂網辣妹妹影音視訊聊天室視訊網愛聊天室後宮電影電影院蜜雪兒免費小說洪爺情色論壇sexy girl video movie視訊交友90739無碼dvd維納斯成人用品辣妹貼圖a片天堂月光論壇sexy girls get fucked中國性愛城sex520-卡通影片383movie成人影城ut正妹 聊天室倉井空免費a影片伊莉論壇tw 18 net18禁成人網免費性愛影片影音視訊聊天室av168成人視訊交友視訊美女視訊交友
 
Post a Comment

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?