### Monday, May 22, 2006

**THE PITS**

Okay, let's take Vlad out of the equation.Yeah, so how's that one working out?

That leaves us with Jose Molina, Casey Kotchman, Adam Kennedy, Chone Figgins, Orlando Cabrera, Garret Anderson, Darin Erstad, Juan Rivera, Tim Salmon, Maicer Izturis, Robb Quinlan, and Edgardo Alfonzo as the remaining Halo position players with any kind of major league track record. (I'm, obviously, assuming Dallas doesn't make the cut here.)

Over their careers, that group of players has posted an Equivalent Average -- the offensive measure used at BPro -- of .266, and over the last four seasons it has been .261. The league average, by definition, is .260.

--Me, March 30, 2006

If you want the simple reason we're so unwatchable right now, it's that the above collection of hitters -- a group with an established talent level in the EqA range of .261-.266, has posted a collective -- you're not going to believe this --

**. Take Alfonzo out of the equation, and the remaining guys are at .232. Take out Erstad and Rivera, each of whom lost (or are losing) significant time to injury, and you get to a whopping .234.**

*.213*Taken as a whole, these players are roughly 28 runs (close to three wins) below average, which for all intents and purposes means that they're three wins below expectations. Add in Vlad, who despite hitting well is still below his usual excellence (a .299 EqA where he's usually closer to .320, which at this point in the season is only a difference of a few runs), as well as rookies such as Jeff Mathis underperforming drastically, and there you have it: an offense that is probably four to five wins below where they were projected to be.

Even if we say we "should" be five wins better, that just gets us to 22-22. We've also had problems in the starting rotation. Regression here was expected after the superb performances put up by most of our starting five last year, but we currently have three rotation spots underperforming to varying degrees:

1. Ervin Santana, as befits a young pitcher, has been inconsistent. I don't think him having an average ERA this year would have been an out-of-line expectation (and of course he has plenty of time to right the ship), maybe just a bit worse. The AL ERA right now is 4.71, and with Angel Stadium historically helping pitchers a bit, we can guesstimate 4.50 as the park-adjusted average. Ervin's 5.02 ERA is a bit worse than this, to the tune of around three earned runs so far. (If I'm right about the park-adjusted ERA being 4.50, his ERA+ is 90, identical to last season's mark. And remember, he came on strong in the second half last year.)

2. The dropoff from Bartolo Colon's injury has been huge. I think he could have been expected to have had an ERA around 15% better than average (roughly 3.90 given our assumptions above). Instead, Bartolo, Kevin Gregg, and Hector Carrasco have combined for an ERA of 6.60 in nearly 44 innings, a loss of roughly 13 runs, at the very least (probably more as a healthy Bartolo would have more than 44 innings at this point).

3. I'm pretty sure you know about the struggles of Jeff Weaver. He was expected to be a league-average innings-eater; his unsightly 7.30 ERA is an outrageous

**15**runs below average.

Add it all up, and there's another three wins the rotation has cost us, simply by vastly underperforming against their reasonable expectations.

Give us back all the wins I've discussed here, and suddenly we're 25-19, which would be a fine place to be. And I haven't even (and won't be here) addressed the bullpen or defense.

Will these guys start playing like they're capable? I, of course, don't know. They sure don't look like they will. Five-and-a-half games is not an insurmountable deficit, but the way we're playing now, it might as well be 55 games.

What needs to happen over the next few weeks to get us back to being a reasonable excuse for a ballteam:

1. Bartolo Colon has to either has to come back at full strength or his rotation spot needs to be adequately filled by Jered Weaver or one of the other spot starters.

2. Jeff Weaver needs to get his act together, and stat.

3. Someone who plays first base needs to start hitting.

4. Juan Rivera needs to start hitting.

5. Garret heating up would be nice.

That's pretty much it. Sure sounds easy when you type it; we just have to hope that our guys can get it done.

Comments:

視訊做愛視訊美女無碼A片情色影劇aa免費看貓咪論壇彩虹性愛巴士金瓶梅影片交流yam視訊交友xxx383美女寫真kyo成人動漫tt1069同志交友網ut同志交友網微風成人論壇6k聊天室日本 avdvd 介紹免費觀賞UT視訊美女交友自拍密錄館sex888情人輔助品哈啦聊天室豆豆出租名模情人視訊視訊交友網視訊交友90739影片 圖片av168成人日本A片免費下載 金瓶梅影片交流免費A片下載85cc免費影城85cc日本a片情色a片無碼女優 免費色情電影同志聊天室38ga成人無碼a片小魔女免費影片玩美女人影音秀台灣18成人網18禁成人網聊天室ut歐美嘟嘟情人色網影片18禁地少女遊戲a383禁地論壇成人影城18禁av影片無碼線上LIVE免費成人影片sex女優松島楓免費影片咆哮小老鼠論壇色咪咪情色網 視訊熱舞秀ut台中聊天室貓貓論壇豆豆情色風暴視訊xxx383美女寫真? 線上漫畫免費線上a片無碼dvdxvediox日本美女寫真集免費成人電影小魔女自拍天堂av1688影音娛樂網0204movie免費影片咆哮小老鼠論壇85cc免費影城85ccfoxy免費音樂下載免費視訊免費影片成人影城免費a網 免費視訊辣妹彩虹頻道免費短片av1688天使娛樂網辣妹妹影音視訊聊天室視訊網愛聊天室後宮電影電影院蜜雪兒免費小說洪爺情色論壇sexy girl video movie視訊交友90739無碼dvd維納斯成人用品辣妹貼圖a片天堂月光論壇sexy girls get fucked中國性愛城sex520-卡通影片383movie成人影城ut正妹 聊天室倉井空免費a影片伊莉論壇tw 18 net18禁成人網免費性愛影片影音視訊聊天室av168成人視訊交友視訊美女視訊交友

Post a Comment