Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Adam Kennedy, suffering his worst season in years and the slings and arrows of impatient Angel fans, came through with a pinch-hit single last night that won the game 5-4.

Of course, for awhile in the game, it didn't seem like such heroics would be necessary. Jered Weaver pitched very well through five innings, allowing only two hits while walking one and striking out three (it was actually four, but it took Dale Scott at least three or four pitches to realize that sliders down the middle count as strikes, which cost Jered a backward K of Grady Sizemore to lead off the game).

But in the sixth inning, the wheels fell off, and Jered allowed more runs than he had in any previous game. No excuses or explanations necessary; he just had a bad inning against Cleveland's best hitters, and they hit the ball hard and capitalized.

There is one thing about Jered which concerns me, however, and was alluded to on last night's telecast:
Year  IP
2002 92.0
2003 133.3
2004 144.0
2005 76.0
2006 142.3
With his next start, Jered will enter uncharted territory as far as his season-long endurance goes. How will he perform?

We don't know, of course. I mean, we don't even know how he would continue to perform even if at full capacity, to trying to guess if he's not at full capacity and then trying to figure out how he might pitch in such a state is a fool's errand.

We can look at how other Angel pitchers have done in recent years while crossing into new innings-pitched thresholds. Ervin Santana, for instance, threw 154 1/3 innings in two leagues in 2003, a seasonal total he did not match again until last season, when he threw 192 innings in three levels, plus nearly ten innings in the postseason.

Thanks to David Pinto's sweet Day-by-Day Database, it's a snap to see how Ervin pitched before and after hitting the 154 1/3 IP mark (actually, just a bit above that -- and not including postseason):
                    K/BF  BB/BF  HR/BF  H/BF   FIP   ERA
First 97 2/3 IP .161 .080 .032 .234 4.66 4.52
Next 36 IP .181 .075 .019 .231 3.72 5.00
FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching, a quick guide as to how a pitcher does based solely on what he is directly responsible for -- strikeouts, walks, and home runs. I show it here to demonstrate that while Ervin's ERA went up over the last few starts of the year, in many ways he actually pitched better, as you can see from his peripherals above.

Any number of things can cause a pitcher's FIP and ERA to diverge. The first thing I checked was the score rate against Ervin for each period -- basically, how often did someone who reached base (excluding home runs) score? Over his first 97 2/3, Ervin allowed 128 men to reach base (again, not counting home runs), and allowed 39 of them to score. That's 30.5%. (The league average was 29%.)

But over his next 36 innings, he allowed 17 of 49 baserunners to score, 34.7%. That indicates to me that while he was pitching better overall, when he did give up hits, they were congregated closer together, which led to more runs being scored.

Over time, that sort of thing will even out, I suspect. In the short term, is it possible that Ervin had reached some level of fatigue that caused him to lose focus or pitch poorly from the stretch? I don't know. It's possible, but it could also just be random variation, luck, a bad bounce or two, etc.

How about John Lackey?
                    K/BF  BB/BF  HR/BF  H/BF   FIP   ERA
First 83 1/3 .138 .062 .017 .236 4.10 3.65
Next 14 2/3 .188 .116 .043 .246 5.92 3.68
Here we have the opposite as with Ervin, where Big John didn't pitch as well in terms of peripherals, but still managed to keep his ERA very good. It's hard to conclude much of anything due to the sample size, though.

One would have to perform a wholesale study on this to draw any real conclusions, but I think we can seen that there is no real set pattern. Jered will either get better, get worse, or stay the same. How's that for going out on a limb?

My guess is that he will continue to regress a bit, just because no one is really good enough to keep their ERA under 2.00 forever. I still expect solid starts, he's a hell of a lot better than his brother right now, and his future looks as bright as ever.

"Meak"? Is there an intentional reason for this misspelling that I'm missing somehow?
Scioscia kept Weaver in too long just because he had 2 outs and was hoping for a cheap put. It was obvious by his erratic pitch location to the last 4 batters that Weaver was out of gas. Something I've noticed in most Weaver starts. He doesn't really wane over time, he hits a wall and suddenly he can't locate.

I don't think they have much choice, He either needs to sit out a few starts the rest of the year or put him on a shorter pitch count/inning leash no matter how well he's pitching. He's too good to risk long term damage.

Stoneman also has to get solid middle relief next year.... If we had solid go to guys in the 6th and 7th, we could really lower the strain on all the starters. or bring up Mosely and let him take every pitchers 5th start to give the guys some 10 day breaks next year.
視訊做愛視訊美女無碼A片情色影劇aa免費看貓咪論壇彩虹性愛巴士金瓶梅影片交流yam視訊交友xxx383美女寫真kyo成人動漫tt1069同志交友網ut同志交友網微風成人論壇6k聊天室日本 avdvd 介紹免費觀賞UT視訊美女交友自拍密錄館sex888情人輔助品哈啦聊天室豆豆出租名模情人視訊視訊交友網視訊交友90739影片 圖片av168成人日本A片免費下載 金瓶梅影片交流免費A片下載85cc免費影城85cc日本a片情色a片無碼女優 免費色情電影同志聊天室38ga成人無碼a片小魔女免費影片玩美女人影音秀台灣18成人網18禁成人網聊天室ut歐美嘟嘟情人色網影片18禁地少女遊戲a383禁地論壇成人影城18禁av影片無碼線上LIVE免費成人影片sex女優松島楓免費影片咆哮小老鼠論壇色咪咪情色網 視訊熱舞秀ut台中聊天室貓貓論壇豆豆情色風暴視訊xxx383美女寫真? 線上漫畫免費線上a片無碼dvdxvediox日本美女寫真集免費成人電影小魔女自拍天堂av1688影音娛樂網0204movie免費影片咆哮小老鼠論壇85cc免費影城85ccfoxy免費音樂下載免費視訊免費影片成人影城免費a網 免費視訊辣妹彩虹頻道免費短片av1688天使娛樂網辣妹妹影音視訊聊天室視訊網愛聊天室後宮電影電影院蜜雪兒免費小說洪爺情色論壇sexy girl video movie視訊交友90739無碼dvd維納斯成人用品辣妹貼圖a片天堂月光論壇sexy girls get fucked中國性愛城sex520-卡通影片383movie成人影城ut正妹 聊天室倉井空免費a影片伊莉論壇tw 18 net18禁成人網免費性愛影片影音視訊聊天室av168成人視訊交友視訊美女視訊交友
Post a Comment

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?