Friday, August 25, 2006
YOU MAKE THE CALL
According to the indispensable The Book, the average home team trailing by one run in the bottom of the seventh, with runners on first and third and no outs, will have a winning percentage of .623.
Down by one run in the bottom of the seventh with a runner on second and one out, that percentage is .416.
Having a runner on second with no outs and a tie game, it's .697.
So, if the potential tying run is on second base and there are no outs, sending the runner on a base hit (with the batter advancing to second on the throw) will gain you .074 wins if he's safe over holding the runner (and thus holding the batter at first), but cost .207 wins if he's thrown out. To send the runner, the break-even point on his success rate has to be above approximately 73.7% (1-(.074/(.074+.207))).
Figuring out whether or not Juan Rivera, a notoriously unspeedy runner, had a better than 73.7% chance scoring against Wily Mo Pena, a natural right fielder who was fielding a sharply hit ball in shallow left field, is an exercise left to the reader.
According to the indispensable The Book, the average home team trailing by one run in the bottom of the seventh, with runners on first and third and no outs, will have a winning percentage of .623.
Down by one run in the bottom of the seventh with a runner on second and one out, that percentage is .416.
Having a runner on second with no outs and a tie game, it's .697.
So, if the potential tying run is on second base and there are no outs, sending the runner on a base hit (with the batter advancing to second on the throw) will gain you .074 wins if he's safe over holding the runner (and thus holding the batter at first), but cost .207 wins if he's thrown out. To send the runner, the break-even point on his success rate has to be above approximately 73.7% (1-(.074/(.074+.207))).
Figuring out whether or not Juan Rivera, a notoriously unspeedy runner, had a better than 73.7% chance scoring against Wily Mo Pena, a natural right fielder who was fielding a sharply hit ball in shallow left field, is an exercise left to the reader.
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