Monday, December 04, 2006
PMR, 3B
Here's Pinto. David is now giving us the data utilizing distance exclusively, so what we see here is only what I called the "Alternative Method" for past positions.
Per a comment I received, I'm also reducing the decimals. I used to have it carried out to four -- no real reason, I just figured more info was better, and if anyone wanted to use this, they could round it off any way they wanted. But I do agree that carrying it out to less looks better, and given the fact that this is all an estimate, anyway, I don't believe that any accuracy is lost.
Here's Pinto. David is now giving us the data utilizing distance exclusively, so what we see here is only what I called the "Alternative Method" for past positions.
Per a comment I received, I'm also reducing the decimals. I used to have it carried out to four -- no real reason, I just figured more info was better, and if anyone wanted to use this, they could round it off any way they wanted. But I do agree that carrying it out to less looks better, and given the fact that this is all an estimate, anyway, I don't believe that any accuracy is lost.
Alternative MethodAgain, I'll compare this to runs derived from zone rating, despite the fact that zone rating does not count balls in the air for infielders:
Player Runs Above Average
Total Per 350 Opp
Joe Crede 30.8 27.1
Pedro Feliz 22.5 20.1
Brandon Inge 21.0 15.3
Adrian Beltre 17.9 15.9
Freddy Sanchez 15.3 20.1
Scott Rolen 14.6 13.7
Mike Lowell 13.6 11.6
Ryan Zimmerman 13.6 13.0
David Bell 10.3 10.8
Morgan Ensberg 9.6 12.2
Maicer Izturis 8.4 17.2
Eric Chavez 7.0 6.9
Corey Koskie 5.6 10.7
Miguel Cabrera 5.2 5.3
Andy Marte 4.2 10.7
Nick Punto 3.8 6.3
Willy Aybar 2.7 9.3
Vinny Castilla 1.9 4.3
Chad Tracy 1.0 1.0
Hank Blalock 0.7 0.9
Melvin Mora -0.5 -0.4
B.J. Upton -1.4 -4.3
Mark DeRosa -1.7 -6.1
Abraham Nunez -1.9 -3.6
Troy Glaus -2.3 -2.5
David Wright -2.4 -2.3
Chipper Jones -2.4 -3.4
Mark Teahen -2.6 -3.1
Aramis Ramirez -2.9 -3.0
Wilson Betemit -3.7 -8.9
Alex Rodriguez -7.0 -7.2
Tony Batista -8.0 -22.6
Aubrey Huff -8.6 -14.8
Rich Aurilia -8.9 -27.7
E. Encarnacion -10.8 -14.2
Aaron Boone -11.4 -17.0
Garrett Atkins -14.3 -13.3
Player ZR-R PMR-2 DiffThe correlation between the two methods for these players is .76, which is surpsingly high (to me, anyway).
Aaron Boone -4 -11 7
Adrian Beltre 11 18 7
Alex Rodriguez -8 -7 1
Aramis Ramirez -4 -3 1
Brandon Inge 20 21 1
Chad Tracy 0 1 1
Chipper Jones -4 -2 2
David Wright -10 -2 8
David Bell 0 10 10
E. Encarnacion -10 -11 1
Eric Chavez 0 7 7
Freddy Sanchez 5 15 10
Garrett Atkins -5 -14 9
Hank Blalock 1 1 0
Joe Crede 8 31 23
Maicer Izturis -3 8 11
Mark Teahen -7 -3 4
Melvin Mora -4 -1 4
Miguel Cabrera -12 5 17
Mike Lowell 14 14 0
Morgan Ensberg 9 10 1
Nick Punto 8 4 4
Pedro Feliz 11 23 12
Ryan Zimmerman 1 14 13
Scott Rolen 5 15 10
Troy Glaus -7 -2 5
Labels: David Pinto, fielding, probabilistic model of range
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
PMR, 2B
Pinto.
And the conversions; once again, he has two methods going on (as introduced for the right fielders) regarding distance and velocity. I don't know that this would make such a huge difference for infielders as for outfielders, and in fact the correlation between the two in this case is .9028.
I'm hesitant to do this, as zone rating and PMR measure different things for infielders, but I've done it for the other positions, so here's the comparison of the above to zone rating converted to runs:
Pinto.
And the conversions; once again, he has two methods going on (as introduced for the right fielders) regarding distance and velocity. I don't know that this would make such a huge difference for infielders as for outfielders, and in fact the correlation between the two in this case is .9028.
Original Method Alternative MethodLast year there was a huge issue with Orlando Hudson and balls in the air, and -- on the face of it -- that doesn't appear to be the case this year. However, it is worth noting that Hudson did not fare very well in 2006 by zone rating, and zone rating does not take into account infield pop-ups. Perhaps that accounts for some of the discrepancy.
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Total Per 460 Opp Total Per 460 Opp
Orlando Hudson 22.1308 19.4780 23.8424 21.0760
Tony Graffanino 18.8130 53.7349 15.7894 44.0029
Jamey Carroll 18.0666 22.3380 19.4540 24.1730
Jose Lopez 15.8799 16.1631 11.8684 11.9396
Mark Ellis 14.9675 18.6007 10.2171 12.4847
Aaron Hill 13.0749 17.6553 17.9308 24.6789
Chase Utley 11.9891 11.9865 18.5944 18.9512
Luis Castillo 11.1295 12.7594 9.5686 10.9136
Jose Valentin 10.5866 16.1274 11.0692 16.8984
Placido Polanco 10.4735 13.4159 7.2764 9.2119
Neifi Perez 10.2548 30.9528 4.1019 11.7519
Robinson Cano 9.1162 11.2452 9.0333 11.1396
Dan Uggla 8.8976 8.6494 1.6136 1.5372
Joe Inglett 8.4602 26.6957 4.0944 12.4260
Tadahito Iguchi 7.1482 7.8567 1.9982 2.1610
Josh Barfield 4.6071 4.8620 0.3544 0.3692
Jose Castillo 4.2226 5.0928 2.1113 2.5278
B. Phillips 3.3931 3.9070 5.1953 6.0180
Chris Burke 2.8427 10.5260 2.0359 7.4741
Marcus Giles -1.1084 -1.2332 -4.3055 -4.7414
M. Grudzielanek -2.7220 -3.3786 16.6867 22.2573
Aaron Miles -5.4366 -10.1987 -6.0398 -11.2934
Hector Luna -6.6053 -19.0188 -5.0068 -14.6099
Mark Loretta -6.7863 -7.6139 -10.6771 -11.8303
Ray Durham -6.8692 -7.8581 -6.3791 -7.3093
Brian Roberts -6.9145 -7.8116 0.8144 0.9438
Ian Kinsler -7.2613 -7.7029 -2.1113 -2.2755
Adam Kennedy -7.3518 -8.1343 -3.0010 -3.3672
Kaz Matsui -7.4800 -19.2309 -7.6082 -19.5419
Ty Wigginton -9.2746 -36.3709 -8.7618 -34.5605
Jeff Kent -10.5187 -14.2753 -7.9249 -10.8653
Rickie Weeks -11.4914 -18.9982 -9.2519 -15.4608
R. Belliard -12.3887 -12.2705 -18.3757 -17.8945
Craig Biggio -12.6149 -15.4032 -7.1105 -8.8537
Todd Walker -14.8695 -46.3035 -12.6602 -40.2215
Jose Vidro -17.2899 -24.2532 -16.9506 -23.8099
Jorge Cantu -21.8518 -32.2194 -18.3003 -27.3966
I'm hesitant to do this, as zone rating and PMR measure different things for infielders, but I've done it for the other positions, so here's the comparison of the above to zone rating converted to runs:
Player ZR-R PMR-1 Diff PMR-2 DiffOnce again, the revised PMR matches up better to ZR, but in this case, put a lot of salt on that, as we're not looking at the groundball-only PMR numbers, which correspond better (in theory) to ZR.
Aaron Miles 1 -5 6 -6 7
Aaron Hill 16 13 3 18 2
Adam Kennedy -6 -7 1 -3 3
Brandon Phillips 2 3 1 5 3
Brian Roberts 6 -7 13 1 5
Chase Utley 3 12 9 19 16
Craig Biggio 5 -13 18 -7 12
Dan Uggla -4 9 13 2 6
Ian Kinsler -3 -7 4 -2 1
Jamey Carroll 11 18 7 19 8
Jeff Kent -8 -11 3 -8 0
Jorge Cantu -22 -22 0 -18 4
Jose Lopez 2 16 14 12 10
Jose Castillo -18 4 22 2 20
Jose Valentin 12 11 1 11 1
Jose Vidro -5 -17 12 -17 12
Josh Barfield 1 5 4 0 1
Luis Castillo -2 11 13 10 12
Marcus Giles -9 -1 8 -4 5
Mark Ellis 7 15 8 10 3
Mark Grudzielanek 7 -3 10 17 10
Mark Loretta -6 -7 1 -11 5
Orlando Hudson -4 22 26 24 28
Placido Polanco 14 10 4 7 7
Ray Durham -2 -7 5 -6 4
Rickie Weeks -8 -11 3 -9 1
Robinson Cano 1 9 8 9 8
Ronnie Belliard -9 -12 3 -18 9
Tadahito Iguchi 1 7 6 2 1
Labels: David Pinto, fielding, probabilistic model of range
Monday, November 27, 2006
PMR, RIGHTFIELDERS
Pinto.
The conversions are as follows. David has presented an alternative method of dealing with flyballs, using distance instead of velocity, so I will also present that. Players are sorted by the original method.
This is also not merely an artifact of the disagreement on Brian Giles. The distance-based PMR method is closer to ZR on nearly every player on the list. Take Giles out of the equation, and the original PMR correlates at .454, and the improved at an impressive .704.
I know that there is something unique and odd about Petco's rightfield, but I don't know if PMR is correct to downgrade Giles so far vis-a-vis what zone rating says.
Pinto.
The conversions are as follows. David has presented an alternative method of dealing with flyballs, using distance instead of velocity, so I will also present that. Players are sorted by the original method.
Original Method Alternative MethodThere are some ... stark differences for some of these players, though the correlation between the two methods is .75. This leads me to believe that velocity and distance are fairly strongly correlated, but mistaking one for the other can lead to some big mistakes. Let's see how both methods compare to zone rating:
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Total Per 285 Opp Total Per 285 Opp
Reggie Sanders 16.3911 30.9922 4.8739 8.4560
Casey Blake 15.6340 23.2528 1.4971 2.0489
J.D. Drew 13.9413 14.8473 6.6347 6.8461
Alex Rios 10.8281 15.0340 6.0052 8.1136
J. Encarnacion 8.6676 11.8302 10.2412 14.1030
Carlos Quentin 8.6506 28.7245 6.8218 22.0984
Mark DeRosa 8.5060 21.0801 3.5045 8.2625
Jose Guillen 8.0722 14.8895 5.2057 9.3971
Vlad Guerrero 7.9616 9.3132 2.9005 3.3121
Damon Hollins 7.9616 18.2049 7.4768 17.0185
Kevin Mench 7.7149 21.3617 -6.2434 -14.9101
Jacque Jones 7.1876 7.6851 6.8984 7.3665
Austin Kearns 6.8984 5.8186 2.7815 2.3129
Ryan Freel 5.1546 15.4737 6.8984 21.1652
Jay Gibbons 4.5422 14.1232 -3.3939 -9.5778
Emil Brown 2.9686 7.9434 1.3525 3.5555
Moises Alou 2.6879 5.0786 5.2482 10.1180
Russell Branyan 0.7911 2.6194 -1.3950 -4.4852
Bobby Abreu 0.3402 0.3314 0.2127 0.2070
Trot Nixon 0.0425 0.0572 -1.9309 -2.5682
Joe Borchard -0.0510 -0.1730 1.7692 6.1552
Jay Payton -0.3573 -1.1386 5.4864 18.9414
Jeff Francoeur -0.7911 -0.7091 -1.3525 -1.2099
Brad Hawpe -0.9016 -0.9143 -1.1653 -1.1804
Ichiro Suzuki -1.0292 -1.1677 7.4938 8.8550
Randy Winn -1.4630 -2.2451 1.8203 2.8526
Jason Lane -1.4800 -2.6912 -2.2796 -4.1203
Shawn Green -1.9479 -2.4974 -5.8862 -7.3927
Milton Bradley -2.9005 -4.2521 0.7315 1.0965
Nick Markakis -3.6831 -4.2962 -0.5104 -0.6045
Jermaine Dye -4.7719 -4.3784 -0.2977 -0.2779
Bernie Williams -5.1121 -14.0078 -5.8181 -15.8161
Geoff Jenkins -5.9882 -6.7180 1.5141 1.7597
Jeromy Burnitz -7.3492 -16.2820 -14.7409 -30.5917
Jeremy Hermida -8.0297 -13.7494 -2.5943 -4.6197
Mike Cuddyer -12.0615 -13.2631 -5.8521 -6.6216
Xavier Nady -13.0057 -18.3233 -4.2190 -6.2638
M. Ordonez -19.7850 -20.0480 -9.1354 -9.6882
Brian Giles -29.3287 -25.1404 -17.4798 -15.6388
Player ZR-R PMR-1 Diff PMR-2 DiffThe original PMR correlates very poorly to ZR, only .165. The new, distance-based method correlates at .381. This does not surprise me, as distance, not velocity, is a parameter in the calculating of zone rating.
Alex Rios 11 11 0 6 5
Austin Kearns 5 7 2 3 2
Bernie Williams -7 -5 2 -6 1
Bobby Abreu -4 0 4 0 4
Brad Hawpe -9 -1 8 -1 8
Brian Giles 12 -29 41 -17 29
Casey Blake 4 16 12 1 3
Damon Hollins 3 8 5 7 4
Geoff Jenkins -2 -6 4 2 4
Ichiro Suzuki 7 -1 8 7 0
J.D. Drew 5 14 9 7 2
Jacque Jones 4 7 3 7 3
Jason Lane -8 -1 7 -2 6
Jeff Francoeur -1 -1 0 -1 0
Jeremy Hermida 4 -8 12 -3 7
Jermaine Dye -2 -5 3 0 2
Jeromy Burnitz -12 -7 5 -15 3
Juan Encarnacion 9 9 0 10 1
Kevin Mench -6 8 14 -6 0
Magglio Ordonez -2 -20 18 -9 7
Mark DeRosa 2 9 7 4 2
Michael Cuddyer -7 -12 5 -6 1
Milton Bradley 7 -3 10 1 6
Moises Alou -6 3 9 5 11
Nick Markakis -2 -4 2 -1 1
Randy Winn 2 -1 3 2 0
Reggie Sanders 6 16 10 5 1
Russell Branyan -5 1 6 -1 4
Trot Nixon 0 0 0 -2 2
Vladimir Guerrero -5 8 13 3 8
Xavier Nady 0 -13 13 -4 4
This is also not merely an artifact of the disagreement on Brian Giles. The distance-based PMR method is closer to ZR on nearly every player on the list. Take Giles out of the equation, and the original PMR correlates at .454, and the improved at an impressive .704.
I know that there is something unique and odd about Petco's rightfield, but I don't know if PMR is correct to downgrade Giles so far vis-a-vis what zone rating says.
Labels: David Pinto, fielding, probabilistic model of range
Wednesday, November 22, 2006
PMR, SHORTSTOPS
Pinto.
Conversions:
This won't mean a whole lot until we get groundball-only figures, but here are comparisons to zone rating:
Again, I'd hold off on making any real judgements, however, until we see groundball-only figures, assuming David presents them again.
Pinto.
Conversions:
Player Runs Above AverageI'm beginning to get a bit skeptical about not re-centering these numbers. Are they really based on the 2006 averages only? Of the 37 shortstops listed here, 22 come out as above average, and the entire group adds up to being 97 runs above average. That means all the other guys who played shortstop this year added up to -97 runs. I guess that's possible.
Total Per 475 Opp
Adam Everett 26.4815 27.0580
Bill Hall 21.3164 26.9483
Y. Betancourt 20.2231 20.2581
Craig Counsell 14.3417 23.4115
Clint Barmes 13.1126 16.1105
Jhonny Peralta 12.5546 11.5492
Khalil Greene 12.1173 17.1336
Jason Bartlett 10.5790 15.0464
Rafael Furcal 9.7421 8.8129
Julio Lugo 8.6035 16.9157
Omar Vizquel 8.0530 8.8892
Carlos Guillen 7.2010 7.5101
Juan Castro 6.0096 14.4880
Ben Zobrist 5.6175 16.1179
Jack Wilson 5.0746 5.3892
Juan Uribe 3.5590 3.9845
Alex Gonzalez 1.7946 2.4522
Bobby Crosby 1.6061 2.5023
John McDonald 1.2517 2.5264
David Eckstein 1.0330 1.2791
Orlando Cabrera 0.6937 0.7626
Edgar Renteria 0.4223 0.4503
Michael Young -0.3092 -0.2738
Jimmy Rollins -0.7917 -0.7521
Geoff Blum -1.3196 -4.1578
Alex Cora -1.3271 -3.8260
Ronny Cedeno -1.6966 -2.0134
Hanley Ramirez -3.2046 -3.2370
Royce Clayton -3.7777 -4.4305
Angel Berroa -6.2735 -7.0897
Jose Reyes -6.3188 -6.6494
Stephen Drew -7.1256 -19.8572
Marco Scutaro -8.6261 -18.7575
Miguel Tejada -9.2369 -9.1933
Aaron Hill -9.5837 -29.8099
Derek Jeter -10.8354 -11.0834
Felipe Lopez -23.9254 -24.1938
This won't mean a whole lot until we get groundball-only figures, but here are comparisons to zone rating:
Player PMR-R ZR-R DiffOutside a few guys, there is actually a lot of agreement here; the correlation is .495. A couple of the biggest disagreements, in particular Yuniesky Betancourt and Jhonny Peralta, are guys who have long been (or, at least as long as they've been around) seen differently by different defensive systems and subjective points of view.
Adam Everett 26 27 1
Alex Gonzalez 2 10 8
Angel Berroa -6 -11 5
Bill Hall 21 -1 22
Bobby Crosby 2 7 5
Carlos Guillen 7 2 5
Clint Barmes 13 4 9
Craig Counsell 14 4 10
David Eckstein 1 7 6
Derek Jeter -11 -5 6
Edgar Renteria 0 -6 6
Felipe Lopez -24 -17 7
Hanley Ramirez -3 -17 14
Jack Wilson 5 1 4
Jason Bartlett 11 10 1
Jhonny Peralta 13 -3 16
Jimmy Rollins -1 -6 5
John McDonald 1 1 0
Jose Reyes -6 10 16
Juan Uribe 4 14 10
Julio Lugo 9 1 8
Khalil Greene 12 5 7
Michael Young 0 4 4
Miguel Tejada -9 0 9
Omar Vizquel 8 11 3
Orlando Cabrera 1 -3 4
Rafael Furcal 10 -4 14
Ronny Cedeno -2 2 4
Royce Clayton -4 -5 1
Y. Betancourt 20 -7 27
Again, I'd hold off on making any real judgements, however, until we see groundball-only figures, assuming David presents them again.
Labels: David Pinto, fielding, probabilistic model of range
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
PMR, FIRST BASEMEN
Pinto.
Me:
Here are the comparisons to ZR:
I would like to see the groundball-only figures for a better comparison.
Pinto.
Me:
Player Runs Above AverageOkay, so last year, David broke down infielders by groundballs only and by all balls in play. This is by all balls in play, and I am forced to guess that Albert Pujols was a "ball hog" on popups, because there is absolutely no way this guy saved 31 runs by his fielding. That's insane.
Total Per 275 Opp
Albert Pujols 30.7808 31.6521
Lyle Overbay 12.9045 12.2021
Kendry Morales 10.7497 26.7455
Nick Johnson 10.5662 9.5032
Dan Johnson 10.3587 18.9884
Lance Niekro 10.3188 33.3568
Kevin Youkilis 9.2893 11.5403
Adrian Gonzalez 8.3955 7.8136
Chris Shelton 7.4857 12.1364
Ben Broussard 6.3764 12.5242
Scott Hatteberg 5.6342 7.2763
Mark Sweeney 5.3310 15.8797
John Mabry 4.7165 14.7239
D. Mientkiewicz 4.7005 8.4426
Andy Phillips 4.6766 12.4690
Justin Morneau 4.6207 4.8833
Mark Teixeira 3.8865 3.5027
Derrek Lee 3.8865 13.3382
S. Hillenbrand 3.6391 7.3348
N. Garciaparra 3.3039 4.7855
Lance Berkman 2.9927 4.2368
Jeff Conine 1.7717 5.4878
Howie Kendrick 1.6200 6.2775
Nick Swisher 1.3407 2.4366
Travis Lee 1.1013 1.3981
Rich Aurilia 0.9417 3.7630
Ryan Shealy 0.8459 2.9101
Prince Fielder -0.1836 -0.1875
Mike Lamb -0.2634 -0.7365
Kevin Millar -0.7182 -1.2430
Ryan Garko -2.4660 -8.5743
Wes Helms -2.7613 -9.2086
Ty Wigginton -3.1204 -12.2744
Craig Wilson -3.7030 -10.4292
Adam LaRoche -3.9424 -4.0614
Robb Quinlan -4.0940 -15.6086
Paul Konerko -4.1339 -5.1631
Richie Sexson -5.0437 -4.6650
Carlos Delgado -5.1394 -5.4477
Todd Helton -7.6453 -7.5201
Jason Giambi -13.8861 -43.1976
Mike Jacobs -16.9506 -21.9629
Sean Casey -19.0096 -27.2528
Conor Jackson -19.1133 -20.6164
Ryan Howard -21.6750 -19.7268
Here are the comparisons to ZR:
Player PMR-R ZR-R DiffZone rating doesn't account for popups, so we should expect some disagreement here; the correlation is .335, closer to what we found for center field than for left field.
Adam LaRoche -4 2 6
Adrian Gonzalez 8 5 3
Albert Pujols 31 0 31
Andy Phillips 5 3 2
Ben Broussard 6 -2 8
Carlos Delgado -5 3 8
Chris Shelton 7 12 5
Conor Jackson -19 0 19
Dan Johnson 10 1 9
Doug Mientkiewicz 5 7 2
Jason Giambi -14 -8 6
Justin Morneau 5 4 1
Kevin Youkilis 9 -1 10
Kevin Millar -1 -3 2
Lance Berkman 3 -4 7
Lyle Overbay 13 0 13
Mark Teixeira 4 2 2
Mike Jacobs -17 -1 16
Nick Johnson 11 -1 12
Nick Swisher 1 -2 3
Nomar Garciaparra 3 3 0
Paul Konerko -4 -8 4
Prince Fielder 0 -9 9
Richie Sexson -5 -6 1
Ryan Howard -22 -3 19
Scott Hatteberg 6 9 3
Todd Helton -8 -2 6
Travis Lee 1 3 2
I would like to see the groundball-only figures for a better comparison.
Labels: David Pinto, fielding, probabilistic model of range
PMR, CENTERFIELDERS
Here is David Pinto's post, and below are my figures. You can read more about this year's incarnation of the run conversions here.
Here's the comparison to zone rating:
The correlation between PMR and ZR for these players is .327.
Here is David Pinto's post, and below are my figures. You can read more about this year's incarnation of the run conversions here.
Player Runs Above AverageThere are a lot of surprises here, not the least of which is that Alfredo Amezaga played center field last year. The rating of Grady Sizemore is also a shocker.
Total Per 367 Opp
Carlos Beltran 13.1884 14.2879
Corey Patterson 11.3302 12.6262
Joey Gathright 10.9253 12.3035
Coco Crisp 9.8407 15.5409
Aaron Rowand 8.9369 13.7439
Johnny Damon 8.6043 10.7371
Shane Victorino 7.1004 17.2366
Willy Taveras 6.9630 7.8539
Rocco Baldelli 5.9290 9.8997
Alfredo Amezaga 5.8206 14.5365
Brady Clark 5.8206 8.8289
Ichiro Suzuki 5.7555 19.9195
Jim Edmonds 5.5313 9.4265
Ryan Freel 5.2855 16.2067
Mike Cameron 4.6998 4.7846
Randy Winn 3.2899 9.1158
Brian Anderson 3.1959 3.9021
Juan Pierre 2.9790 2.9086
R. Abercrombie 2.8633 6.2534
C. Granderson 2.6391 2.5398
Steve Finley 2.4005 3.1056
Vernon Wells 1.4461 1.6082
Andruw Jones 1.3087 1.2802
Eric Byrnes 1.1496 1.5719
Choo Freeman 0.1374 0.5001
Chris Duffy 0.0940 0.2080
So Taguchi 0.0217 0.0885
Marlon Byrd -0.0506 -0.1485
Chone Figgins -1.2581 -1.8943
G. Matthews Jr. -1.3738 -1.5055
Nate McLouth -1.6196 -6.8925
David DeJesus -2.9211 -7.0050
Torii Hunter -3.0657 -3.2402
Ryan Church -4.6854 -13.3836
Jay Payton -5.7121 -18.7340
Jose Bautista -5.8495 -17.5834
Rob Mackowiak -6.0736 -17.4962
Cory Sullivan -8.3006 -12.8820
Mark Kotsay -9.7684 -12.1728
Jeremy Reed -12.5449 -31.4587
Kenny Lofton -13.0511 -18.4896
Grady Sizemore -16.0011 -13.6210
K. Griffey Jr. -20.0140 -28.6160
Here's the comparison to zone rating:
Player PMR-R ZR-R DiffSome guys are right in line, but there are a few doozies, like the aforementioned Sizemore and Coco Crisp. I suspect PMR might handle Fenway better than ZR, but I don't really know, and don't have an explanation for the other differences. This is here to spur the conversation.
Aaron Rowand 9 -3 12
Andruw Jones 1 -9 10
Brady Clark 6 -3 9
Brian Anderson 3 3 0
Carlos Beltran 13 9 4
Chone Figgins -1 3 4
Chris Duffy 0 6 6
Coco Crisp 10 -8 18
Corey Patterson 11 16 5
Cory Sullivan -8 -1 7
C. Granderson 3 5 2
Eric Byrnes 1 8 7
G. Matthews Jr. -1 -8 7
Grady Sizemore -16 7 23
Jim Edmonds 6 6 0
Joey Gathright 11 -2 13
Johnny Damon 9 4 5
Juan Pierre 3 16 13
Ken Griffey Jr. -20 -11 9
Kenny Lofton -13 -2 11
Mark Kotsay -10 -5 5
Mike Cameron 5 8 3
Rocco Baldelli 6 0 6
Steve Finley 2 3 1
Torii Hunter -3 0 3
Vernon Wells 1 12 11
Willy Taveras 7 5 2
The correlation between PMR and ZR for these players is .327.
Labels: David Pinto, fielding, probabilistic model of range
PMR, LEFTFIELDERS
David Pinto has begun posting his probabilistic model of range defensive numbers. As in years past, here is my attempt to convert those figures, which are presented in outs above and below average, to runs. My method of doing this, cribbed from Chris Dial, is explained here, and data from past years can be found along the sidebar.
I've got some technical things to say on this, but I'll toss those down at the end.
David has begun with leftfielders, so here we go. Every player is presented with an actual total in addition to a rate total (based on a typical number of opportunities for each position, which should be roughly equivalent to around 150 games).
The correlation between the two lists is .519, if that has meaning for you.
I don't know eough about the players for whom there is a big difference to really speak to why that might be, but there's the data.
***
TECHNICAL NOTE: There is one difference between my conversions this year and in past years. What PMR does is, for every batted ball in the world, gauge the probability of any one fielder making that play. So, for a ball hit to X place, the shortstop might make an out 75% of the time. If any shortstop has 100 balls hit there, he's expected to make 75 outs. If our guy makes 85, he's +10 plays (which I then convert into runs), if he's 65, he's -10. I call the 75 outs "predicted outs" here.
Now, that hypothetical 75% figure was, in years past, a multi-year average. As a result, if you look at any given year at a position, you find some weird things. The shortstops in 2004 (for whom Pinto provided data), for instance, averaged around -16 runs against predicted in a full season. When doing these conversions, I recentered it so that the -16 would be average.
I didn't have to do that this year. David, because of his data (read about it here) is using 2006 data only to derive these numbers, which makes my job a lot easier.
If you add up all the leftfielders here, you'll see that they came out to around +13 runs above average. That means that all the other leftfielders in baseball added up to -13. Before, I used to have to guess and just kind of assume the population we had for PMR represented the population at large. That may have been a bad assumption, but at least now we don't have to guess.
As for another technical note, last year David had an "original model" and a "smoothed visitor" model that dealt with parks slightly differently. I don't know which model he's currently employing.
David Pinto has begun posting his probabilistic model of range defensive numbers. As in years past, here is my attempt to convert those figures, which are presented in outs above and below average, to runs. My method of doing this, cribbed from Chris Dial, is explained here, and data from past years can be found along the sidebar.
I've got some technical things to say on this, but I'll toss those down at the end.
David has begun with leftfielders, so here we go. Every player is presented with an actual total in addition to a rate total (based on a typical number of opportunities for each position, which should be roughly equivalent to around 150 games).
Player Runs Above AverageThanks to Chris Dial, who has done work on converting zone rating to runs, we can see how some players came out in PMR vis-a-vis zone rating. This is alphabetical by first name, and I've rounded off the PMR Runs to integers for convenience of comparison:
Total Per 270 Opp
Melky Cabrera 14.9236 20.2431
Matt Diaz 10.7749 19.3897
Reed Johnson 10.4507 24.2351
Dave Roberts 10.3676 12.3570
Matt Murton 8.4553 9.9332
Brandon Fahey 7.9482 23.4690
Emil Brown 6.7177 11.7079
Ryan Langerhans 6.0609 11.0043
Alfonso Soriano 5.8780 4.9762
Andre Ethier 5.3542 8.7318
Jason Bay 5.0965 4.4407
So Taguchi 4.7972 15.9453
Jason Michaels 4.4812 5.8000
F. Catalanotto 4.0073 8.0040
Cliff Floyd 3.5085 6.5885
David DeJesus 3.3090 6.6663
Juan Rivera 2.9099 6.4137
Garret Anderson 1.5464 2.1959
Marcus Thames 0.8896 3.4846
Barry Bonds 0.7898 1.1401
Kevin Mench 0.7566 2.5828
Jay Payton 0.3824 0.8711
Luke Scott -0.1580 -0.5253
Jeff Conine -0.3492 -1.0663
Brad Wilkerson -0.4074 -0.7885
Luis Gonzalez -1.1640 -1.2209
Carl Crawford -1.7792 -1.5795
Nick Swisher -2.3362 -3.6502
Josh Willingham -2.6106 -3.3703
Preston Wilson -3.6582 -6.1578
Craig Monroe -3.6997 -5.7926
Chris Duncan -4.6808 -17.6436
Matt Holliday -7.0669 -6.6832
Adam Dunn -7.1002 -6.6670
Bobby Kielty -7.1750 -21.8577
Pat Burrell -7.8152 -9.8419
Scott Podsednik -8.8128 -9.3093
Raul Ibanez -11.3403 -9.7005
Carlos Lee -13.8844 -15.3828
Manny Ramirez -22.4145 -29.9660
Player PMR-R ZR-R DiffThough both systems see many players similarly, there are some pretty big discrapencies, as well. PMR takes park into account, where ZR does not, so that may be one source of difference. Of course, they also are derived from different data sources and tracking systems, PMR from Baseball Info Solutions and ZR from STATS, LLC.
Adam Dunn -7 -12 5
Alfonso Soriano 6 5 1
Andre Ethier 5 2 3
Barry Bonds 1 0 1
Brad Wilkerson 0 -5 5
Carl Crawford -2 8 10
Carlos Lee -14 -3 11
Cliff Floyd 4 1 3
Craig Monroe -4 1 5
Dave Roberts 10 14 4
Emil Brown 7 9 2
F. Catalanotto 4 -2 6
Garret Anderson 2 -1 3
Jason Bay 5 -6 11
Jason Michaels 4 3 1
Josh Willingham -3 -15 12
Luis Gonzalez -1 2 3
Manny Ramirez -22 -32 10
Matt Diaz 11 6 5
Matt Murton 8 6 2
Matt Holliday -7 3 10
Melky Cabrera 15 -6 21
Nick Swisher -2 4 6
Pat Burrell -8 0 8
Preston Wilson -4 -20 16
Raul Ibanez -11 4 15
Reed Johnson 10 5 5
Ryan Langerhans 6 11 5
Scott Podsednik -9 7 16
The correlation between the two lists is .519, if that has meaning for you.
I don't know eough about the players for whom there is a big difference to really speak to why that might be, but there's the data.
***
TECHNICAL NOTE: There is one difference between my conversions this year and in past years. What PMR does is, for every batted ball in the world, gauge the probability of any one fielder making that play. So, for a ball hit to X place, the shortstop might make an out 75% of the time. If any shortstop has 100 balls hit there, he's expected to make 75 outs. If our guy makes 85, he's +10 plays (which I then convert into runs), if he's 65, he's -10. I call the 75 outs "predicted outs" here.
Now, that hypothetical 75% figure was, in years past, a multi-year average. As a result, if you look at any given year at a position, you find some weird things. The shortstops in 2004 (for whom Pinto provided data), for instance, averaged around -16 runs against predicted in a full season. When doing these conversions, I recentered it so that the -16 would be average.
I didn't have to do that this year. David, because of his data (read about it here) is using 2006 data only to derive these numbers, which makes my job a lot easier.
If you add up all the leftfielders here, you'll see that they came out to around +13 runs above average. That means that all the other leftfielders in baseball added up to -13. Before, I used to have to guess and just kind of assume the population we had for PMR represented the population at large. That may have been a bad assumption, but at least now we don't have to guess.
As for another technical note, last year David had an "original model" and a "smoothed visitor" model that dealt with parks slightly differently. I don't know which model he's currently employing.
Labels: David Pinto, fielding, probabilistic model of range
Monday, October 09, 2006
THE OUTFIELD
A couple of weeks ago I discussed the Angel infield; let's look to the outfield and designated hitter.
What was supposed to happen: Garret would stay healthy and bounce back a bit, Darin Erstad would play great defense and ground out to second for a few weeks before getting injured and being replaced by Legs Figgins, and Vlad would be Vlad. Juan Rivera would see time at DH and covering the corners, and even fill in some in center against lefty pitchers.
What happened: Garret stayed dinged up and mediocre, Figgins hit 30 points less than his career average, Vlad did his Vlad thing, and Rivera had a career year.
Where we go from here: Look, we're basically stuck with Garret in left field and/or DH. Mike Scioscia finally began to warm up to the idea that Juan Rivera is a better defender than Garret, and has a better arm. Sure, Garret is more surehanded (he didn't make an error last year), but Rivera gets to more balls (.854 to .844 in zone rating last year, .917 to .864 the year before) and has a better arm (Rivera had 7 assists from left last year to Garret's 1, playing in only around 60% of the innings of his senior). Garret's contract will preclude him from being moved anywhere, to he's all ours.
You're also going to have to get used to having Vlad in the lineup. I know that will be hard for us, but such is life. The only real flaw in his game, last year, anyway, was his defense; Vlad committed 11 errors, mostly the result of lapses of concentration. Mike Scioscia believes that he was dropping balls because of gimpy knees, making it hard to see the ball well while running. There is probably truth to this, and Vlad should be seeing more time at DH to give his body a break. Despite his bad instincts, his athleticism has made him average defender in years past, so I would expect something of a bounce-back in this regard in 2007.
Center field, of course, brings us big questions, and is intimately tied to the third base situation. It doesn't seem unlikely that the Angels will get either a third baseman or center fielder and install The Legs at the complementary position.
The options at center field, at this time, are questionable. Torii Hunter has a good shot at being a free agent, but he's on the wrong side of 30, is starting to suffer the attendant decline in defense, and his offense is solid but unspectacular. He's coming off his best offensive season since 2002, but there is little reason to believe his next four years will be as good as his last four. He'll likely demand a contract in the $10M per year range, which may be too much.
There is, theoretically, the possibility of trading for Vernon Wells. Wells has one year left on his contract with Toronto, so is financially cheap. He's a solid defensive player, though his offense is also something of a question mark; he was terrific in 2003 and 2006, but just a bit above average in the two years in between.
Of course, the Blue Jays, coming off a second-place finish and looking at two perennial giants who seem to be teetering on chaos in New York and Boston, may not be too thrilled with the idea of trading one of their key players. However, Alexis Rios, who had a breakthrough season with the bat last season, could be a candidate to be moved to center if Wells were dispatched. Juan Rivera might be an essential piece of such a trade so as to replace Rios, though the Jays would likely require a prospect as well. Their middle infield situation is a bit sticky (Aaron Hill can play second or short), so maybe Erick Aybar would sweeten the pot, though I worry that might be too much, so perhaps the Jays would throw in a lower-level prospect to even things up.
Otherwise, we may see Aramis Ramirez signed at third base. Other alleged third base candidates would come via trade, such as Joe Crede (pass), Mark Teahen (intriguing), Miguel Tejada (any talk of moving The OC to third to accommodate him, however, is utter madness), and even A-Rod (a great idea, in a vacuum).
It's difficult to evaluate any potential move without knowing the costs, so I will not do so here. Alex Rodriguez, for example, would be a great addition, but with his salary and the players that might be demanded of us to get him, would he be a good acquisition? That's an entirely different question.
If the Jays are willing to move him, I think the most exciting possibility is Vernon Wells. If not, I think we'd be best-served to upgrade the third base position. Of course, things will change as the off-season progresses.
A couple of weeks ago I discussed the Angel infield; let's look to the outfield and designated hitter.
What was supposed to happen: Garret would stay healthy and bounce back a bit, Darin Erstad would play great defense and ground out to second for a few weeks before getting injured and being replaced by Legs Figgins, and Vlad would be Vlad. Juan Rivera would see time at DH and covering the corners, and even fill in some in center against lefty pitchers.
What happened: Garret stayed dinged up and mediocre, Figgins hit 30 points less than his career average, Vlad did his Vlad thing, and Rivera had a career year.
Where we go from here: Look, we're basically stuck with Garret in left field and/or DH. Mike Scioscia finally began to warm up to the idea that Juan Rivera is a better defender than Garret, and has a better arm. Sure, Garret is more surehanded (he didn't make an error last year), but Rivera gets to more balls (.854 to .844 in zone rating last year, .917 to .864 the year before) and has a better arm (Rivera had 7 assists from left last year to Garret's 1, playing in only around 60% of the innings of his senior). Garret's contract will preclude him from being moved anywhere, to he's all ours.
You're also going to have to get used to having Vlad in the lineup. I know that will be hard for us, but such is life. The only real flaw in his game, last year, anyway, was his defense; Vlad committed 11 errors, mostly the result of lapses of concentration. Mike Scioscia believes that he was dropping balls because of gimpy knees, making it hard to see the ball well while running. There is probably truth to this, and Vlad should be seeing more time at DH to give his body a break. Despite his bad instincts, his athleticism has made him average defender in years past, so I would expect something of a bounce-back in this regard in 2007.
Center field, of course, brings us big questions, and is intimately tied to the third base situation. It doesn't seem unlikely that the Angels will get either a third baseman or center fielder and install The Legs at the complementary position.
The options at center field, at this time, are questionable. Torii Hunter has a good shot at being a free agent, but he's on the wrong side of 30, is starting to suffer the attendant decline in defense, and his offense is solid but unspectacular. He's coming off his best offensive season since 2002, but there is little reason to believe his next four years will be as good as his last four. He'll likely demand a contract in the $10M per year range, which may be too much.
There is, theoretically, the possibility of trading for Vernon Wells. Wells has one year left on his contract with Toronto, so is financially cheap. He's a solid defensive player, though his offense is also something of a question mark; he was terrific in 2003 and 2006, but just a bit above average in the two years in between.
Of course, the Blue Jays, coming off a second-place finish and looking at two perennial giants who seem to be teetering on chaos in New York and Boston, may not be too thrilled with the idea of trading one of their key players. However, Alexis Rios, who had a breakthrough season with the bat last season, could be a candidate to be moved to center if Wells were dispatched. Juan Rivera might be an essential piece of such a trade so as to replace Rios, though the Jays would likely require a prospect as well. Their middle infield situation is a bit sticky (Aaron Hill can play second or short), so maybe Erick Aybar would sweeten the pot, though I worry that might be too much, so perhaps the Jays would throw in a lower-level prospect to even things up.
Otherwise, we may see Aramis Ramirez signed at third base. Other alleged third base candidates would come via trade, such as Joe Crede (pass), Mark Teahen (intriguing), Miguel Tejada (any talk of moving The OC to third to accommodate him, however, is utter madness), and even A-Rod (a great idea, in a vacuum).
It's difficult to evaluate any potential move without knowing the costs, so I will not do so here. Alex Rodriguez, for example, would be a great addition, but with his salary and the players that might be demanded of us to get him, would he be a good acquisition? That's an entirely different question.
If the Jays are willing to move him, I think the most exciting possibility is Vernon Wells. If not, I think we'd be best-served to upgrade the third base position. Of course, things will change as the off-season progresses.
Labels: Alex Rodriguez, Aramis Ramirez, Darin Erstad, Eric k Aybar, fielding, Garret Anderson, Joe Crede, Juan Rivera, Legs Figgins, Mark Teahen, Miguel Tejada, Vernon Wells, Vladimir Guerrero
