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Friday, August 24, 2007

WATCH LIST UPDATE 

It's been one month today since the last one; this is likely the penultimate edition of the year.

The BB-Ref organizational stats are linked in the POSITION and PITCHER headers.

POSITION PLAYERS

Michael Collins, 1B, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now 394 98 17 3 5 11 65 5 4 249 292 345
7/24 296 66 14 1 3 8 52 5 4 223 269 307
6/26 229 44 12 1 2 5 45 4 2 192 241 279
5/21 127 17 7 0 1 2 25 0 1 136 194 216
5/1 75 12 2 0 1 2 16 0 1 160 203 227
It's been a good month for Collins, relatively. No matter what happens, there's a good chance he'll repeat the level, but since his first 127 AB he's been hitting 303/326/446. That's nothing special in the Texas League, but at least it's something. He will need to reacquaint himself with ball four, regardless.


Hank Conger, C, A Cedar Rapids, BB/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now 262 73 17 0 9 19 45 9 4 279 329 447
7/24 213 60 16 0 8 16 41 7 3 282 336 469
6/26 213 60 16 0 8 16 41 7 3 282 336 469
5/21 123 32 6 0 6 8 16 6 0 260 311 455
5/1 68 18 2 0 3 4 8 4 0 265 306 426
Hank has been fighting injuries for the second half of the season. It's affected both his playing time (obviously) and his numbers when he's been in the lineup, but he continues to demonstrate good power relative to his league.


Terry Evans, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now 439 138 37 4 14 21 110 22 9 314 347 513
7/24 341 106 28 3 13 12 87 15 6 311 334 525
6/26 260 86 23 3 11 11 60 13 6 331 358 569
5/21 156 50 13 3 6 9 42 11 4 321 355 558
Evans has drawn some walks in the last month, but it's still not quite enough for a guy who doesn't project to be any better than a .250 hitter in the bigs.


Nick Gorneault, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now 433 107 20 1 6 56 103 16 6 247 337 409
7/24 341 80 17 0 12 41 83 12 4 235 322 390
6/26 276 60 12 0 9 35 63 11 3 217 310 359
5/21 151 36 10 0 3 18 34 8 2 238 327 364
5/1 81 15 4 0 3 9 17 5 2 185 283 346
Nick didn't really start hitting anything like himself until the end of June, having raised his batting average 30 points in the last two months. Still, a disappointing year for a guy who, it feels, has been at AAA forever.


Christopher Pettit, LF, A+ Rancho Cucamonga, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now 235 76 18 1 9 29 40 12 2 323 403 523
7/24 124 44 8 1 8 16 23 9 2 355 433 629
6/26 22 2 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 091 130 091
Remember thou art mortal. Chris Pettit has stopped treating baseball like a videogame, going only 32 for his last 111, a horrific batting average of .288. That's right: in his slump, he hits 288/363/405. His control of the strike zone isn't mindblowing, but it's solid, and he's also been getting a lot of time in center field, showing valuable defensive versatility.


Sean Rodriguez, SS, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now 468 116 30 2 13 48 126 13 7 248 339 404
7/24 371 93 24 1 11 35 99 11 6 251 338 410
6/26 278 71 17 1 10 28 76 9 4 255 350 432
5/23 143 36 9 0 6 19 35 6 3 252 374 441
5/1 81 25 6 0 4 12 21 3 3 309 423 531
Rodriguez is only four months older than Pettit, and a level higher, but, still, his AVG, OBP, and SLG are all below the Texas League average despite his playing in a hitters' park. That's not what we particularly wanted to see.


Mark Trumbo, 1B, A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now 443 117 25 2 13 28 84 10 8 270 318 427
7/24 340 97 20 2 9 23 73 10 5 285 334 435
6/26 242 68 16 1 7 16 53 3 4 281 327 442
5/23 117 27 6 0 3 5 30 1 2 231 266 359
5/1 49 10 1 0 1 2 16 0 2 204 245 286
A bit of a slump from the power prospect, but, like several of our hitters at Cedar Rapids, he's still demonstrating good power relative to the league. Last season he struck out 99 times in only 428 AB, so he seems to be making progress there, though his walks are also down quite a bit (from 44).


Brandon Wood, SS, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now 397 105 21 1 20 43 109 10 1 264 335 474
7/24 313 82 18 1 16 39 80 8 1 262 343 479
6/26 254 68 18 1 13 34 69 8 1 268 355 500
5/23 131 31 8 0 5 18 38 3 0 237 331 412
5/1 84 22 6 0 3 11 28 2 0 262 351 440
I think he's going to need another year. There are things to like: Brandon continues to draw the base on balls, and his strikeouts, while still prodigious, are down considerably from last season. But as of right now, I'm not convinced he's a .200 hitter in the major leagues. If he sticks at third, he projects to a good-fielding Dean Palmer. That's still a solid player on the corner, though obviously that kind of offense would be more valuable from a good-fielding shortstop, a capability Wood may still have within him.


Watch Out:
Who       Lvl  AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Bourjos A 193 52 6 4 4 15 46 18 6 269 323 404
ClyFuller Azl 162 49 8 4 4 19 45 18 6 302 395 475
Mount A 264 66 10 3 5 24 62 14 6 250 317 367
Ortiz Azl 59 19 4 0 0 5 14 3 2 322 369 390
Peel AA 310 79 20 2 7 6 43 2 0 255 284 400
Phillips A 399 104 11 7 13 12 135 33 4 261 296 421
Rivera has not played
Sandoval AA 446 139 32 5 11 66 71 21 11 312 400 480
Statia A+ 520 147 23 7 2 44 75 27 7 283 338 365
Sweeney A 399 104 26 2 16 34 83 7 7 261 324 456
Peter Bourjos has had a bit of a (relative) power surge, but the average and strikeouts are less than exciting. Clay Fuller's numbers have come down just a bit in the last month, but that's still a solid getting-your-feet wet debut. Ryan Mount has been struggling since coming back from injury. Norberto Ortiz has also missed time, so those numbers are borderline useless. Aaron Peel -- guess what? -- has been injured for the last month. P.J. Phillips' slugging percentage is nearly 40 points better than his league's, which makes you wonder what he might be able to do if he, you know, could hit the ball; he also, ridiculously, successfully steals a base 39% of the time he reaches first (a bit of an estimate, as some of those SB are likely of third). Luis Rivera has yet to play. Freddy Sandoval leads his team in hits, doubles, triples, and stolen bases (and also caught stealing, unfortunately), and is second in home runs and walks. Hainley Statia has seen some modest improvement in the last 31 days. Matthew Sweeney's numbers may not be jumping off the page, but he does lead the team in doubles, home runs, and walks.


PITCHERS

Nick Adenhart, RHSP, AA Arkansas
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 9 7 0 24 24 142.0 143 7 106 61 3.74
7/24 7 3 0 18 18 107.0 112 4 78 43 3.36
6/26 6 2 0 14 14 83.7 87 4 61 37 3.46
5/23 3 2 0 8 8 47.3 43 0 35 21 2.68
5/1 3 1 0 5 5 33.7 24 0 27 10 0.80
There is some worry about Adenhart slumping of late, but the fact is he's a 20-year-old in AA. Yes, his strikeout rate is a bit low, and yes, his walk rate is high. And that strikeout rate is exaggerated; the Texas League strikes out 17.3% of batters and Adenhart whiffs 16.8%. He's holding his own against older competition, and I think he's going to be fine if healthy.


Jose Arredondo, RHSP, AA Arkansas and A+ Rancho Cucamonga
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 2 4 4 27 0 34.0 44 4 33 11 6.09
7/24 0 2 2 15 0 16.0 24 3 13 6 9.56
6/26 0 0 2 4 0 3.7 7 0 5 4 18.90 A+
6/26 0 1 10 23 0 25.0 16 2 28 12 2.52 AA
5/23 0 1 6 16 0 19.0 12 2 22 10 3.32
5/1 0 1 2 8 0 11.0 8 1 14 5 1.64
I don't know if Arredondo is going to be fine, but he's finally turned things around. As you can see, his demotion to the Cal League was not performance-based, though his horrific start for the Quakes certainly didn't contribute to his return to the higher level. But he has improved considerably over the last month on the mound, and hopefully has done so in other ways, too.


Gustavo Espinoza, LHRP, Arizona League
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 0 0 0 2 0 1.3 0 0 3 1 6.75
He lives!

For some reason BB-Ref lists Espinoza's ERA as 9.00, which is impossible when a guy has 1 1/3 innings. As you know, Gustavo has been hurt for some time, but so far his return has seen him strikeout three of five batters faced. Too early to know anything, but his stuff has been compared to Johan Santana's in the past (how's that for pressure?), but he clearly has raw ability, and hopefully can harness it -- and keep his arm attached to his body long enough to do so.


Stephen Marek, RHSP, A Rancho Cucamonga
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 8 9 0 23 23 121.0 123 15 95 45 4.61
7/24 5 7 0 17 17 89.0 91 10 70 35 4.75
6/26 5 4 0 13 13 69.7 64 5 56 30 4.02
5/23 3 2 0 7 7 38.7 34 2 23 15 3.52
5/1 1 0 0 3 3 15.0 12 1 7 6 2.40
A bit of a bounce-back.


Tommy Mendoza, A Cedar Rapids, RHSP
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 2 4 0 10 9 44.0 54 5 30 13 4.30
7/24 0 3 0 4 3 12.3 18 4 11 6 9.00
Tommy's starting to get things together, vastly improving his peripherals over his last six starts.


Darren O'Day, RHRP, AA Arkansas and A+ Rancho Cucamonga
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 3 3 7 25 0 25.3 24 2 19 11 3.24
7/24 1 2 0 3 0 13.0 11 1 10 7 2.77
6/26 0 1 0 2 0 2.0 3 0 0 1 4.50 AA
6/26 4 0 0 24 0 24.0 10 1 26 6 0.75 A+ Final
O'Day continues to not dominate, though he does seem to be adjusting if his strikeouts and walk rates are any indication.


Sean O'Sullivan, RHSP, A Cedar Rapids
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 10 6 0 23 23 144.3 122 6 119 38 2.19
7/24 6 5 0 17 17 102.7 94 3 86 27 2.37
6/26 4 5 0 12 12 70.3 76 3 53 19 2.96
5/23 2 3 0 8 8 48.0 56 2 36 13 3.00
5/1 1 2 0 4 4 23.0 26 2 13 6 3.52
O'Sullivan has been en fuego for two months now. His K/9 IP is below the league average, but this demonstrates why using that measure is incomplete: he actually strikes out 20% of batters, while the league K's 19.7%. He doesn't rack up as many strikeouts because he doesn't face as many guys: Sean's WHIP of 1.11 blows away the league's 1.32.


Steve Shell, RHSP/RP, AAA Salt Lake
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 6 3 0 29 6 61.3 76 15 44 18 5.46
7/24 4 3 0 21 4 45.0 56 12 35 14 5.60
6/26 4 1 0 14 3 31.0 39 7 23 11 4.94
5/23 1 0 0 5 1 12.0 18 3 4 2 3.75
5/1 0 0 0 2 1 7.0 9 1 3 1 1.29
Steven Shell finds himself moving in and out of the rotation this year, and doesn't seem to be finding much success in either role.


Rich Thompson, RHRP, AAA Salt Lake and AA Arkansas
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 3 0 1 14 0 22.3 15 2 29 3 2.05
7/24 1 0 0 4 0 7.7 6 0 12 2 1.23 AAA
7/24 2 3 0 21 3 49.3 34 5 50 14 2.02 AA Final
6/26 1 3 0 19 3 44.3 32 5 46 12 2.25
Personally, I am ready to see Rich Thompson in the major leagues. The guy is striking out 34% of the guys he sees carrying lumber, and our setup guy, as discussed yesterday, is running on fumes. I'd assume we'd see him in September and, if all goes well, maybe even October, too.

K-Thom?


Watch Out:
Who       Lvl  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Bell A 6 4 0 19 19 101.3 125 8 81 21 4.54
Bulger AAA 5 2 9 46 0 49.0 49 4 77 23 3.86
Green AA 10 6 0 25 25 160.0 145 15 96 28 3.66
Madrigal A 5 3 17 50 0 56.0 41 3 69 21 2.25
Rodriguez AA 0 6 0 42 1 64.7 72 6 38 30 4.34
Walden R 1 1 0 12 12 48.3 37 2 48 17 3.75
Young R 0 1 0 3 3 9.0 10 1 9 6 9.00
Trevor Bell has taken a bit of a beating over the last month. Jason Bulger should also be in the September mix. Nick Green has been so good over the last five starts (ten, actually) that I could probably justify moving him up to the main list if I weren't so lazy; it would also help if he had enough K's where I was convinced he was for real. Warner Madrigal not only continues to excel, but keeps getting better. Rafael Rodriguez has actually done quite well over the last month. Jordan Walden is really getting into the pitch of things. Young Il-Jung has been shut down due to injury.

A few random notes ... we have two first basemen off to good starts in the Arizona League, 19-year-old Christopher Garcia (333/480/474) and 21-year-old Seth Loman (291/442/537) ... there's Pac 10 double play duo playing for Tom Kotchman at Orem; though his numbers overall aren't overwhelming (as was to be expected) shortstop Andrew Romine has already hit two more home runs (3 total) than he did in his entire college career at the hitting paradise of Arizona State ... his parter, Hector Estrella, went to another Pac 10 "school" (to use the term loosely), is hitting well and controlling the strike zone ...

Labels:


Comments:
By the way, here are a few words about Andrew Romine that appeared in the Desert Morning News:

Shortstop Andrew Romine, a fifth-round draft pick in 2007, has added some offensive punch since joining the team in July following his Arizona State career. Romine, who played in the College World Series in June, is batting .301. He also possesses a slick glove.

"Romine might be the best shortstop I've managed in my 20 years in the minor leagues," said Kotchman, who also managed current Angel Erick Aybar and top prospect Brandon Wood. "Overall, Aybar is more athletic. But overall, Romine is solid. He's a big-league shortstop."

http://deseretnews.com/article/1,5143,695200549,00.html

High praise coming from Kotch.
 
Arkansas got a new park starting this year. It had been the best hitting park in the Texas league, but this year the replacement has played as a pitchers park.

Good news for Sean-Rod, bad for Adenhart.
 
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