Thursday, November 08, 2007


David Pinto has started posting his Probabilistic Model of Range figures for teams and individuals, starting the individuals off with the shortstops. Here are the conversions (there's an explanation in the relevant section of the sidebar to your right, as well as figures from past seasons):
Player               Runs      Runs/490
Troy Tulowitzki 38.0 33.0
Tony F Pena 23.0 25.1
Rafael Furcal 20.9 23.0
Jason Bartlett 16.9 18.7
John McDonald 12.6 21.0
Jimmy Rollins 12.4 11.8
Jack Wilson 9.7 10.4
Jhonny Peralta 7.3 7.1
Omar Vizquel 4.7 4.6
Orlando Cabrera 3.8 4.1
Julio Lugo 3.7 4.2
Yunel Escobar 2.7 9.9
Adam Everett 1.8 4.1
Alex Gonzalez 0.0 -0.1
J.J. Hardy -0.3 -0.3
Cesar Izturis -0.3 -0.6
Bobby Crosby -0.6 -0.9
Stephen Drew -0.9 -1.1
Mark Loretta -1.0 -2.7
Eric Bruntlett -1.4 -5.0
Ryan Theriot -1.6 -2.5
Marco Scutaro -1.6 -6.4
Royce Clayton -2.1 -5.0
Hanley Ramirez -2.2 -2.4
Yuniesky Betancourt -2.7 -2.8
Khalil Greene -2.7 -2.6
Edgar Renteria -3.1 -4.2
Jeff Keppinger -4.3 -15.4
David Eckstein -6.5 -8.9
Josh Wilson -7.8 -25.3
Miguel Tejada -7.9 -10.3
Juan Uribe -8.6 -8.1
Jose Reyes -9.0 -8.6
Cristian Guzman -10.5 -39.4
Felipe Lopez -14.1 -18.3
Carlos Guillen -14.4 -17.2
Brendan Harris -14.4 -27.9
Michael Young -21.8 -21.1
Derek Jeter -30.6 -32.5
A few points:

1. David, along with the individual totals, listed the team totals, which also means that we have the major league-wide totals. This is great; one concern with the first couple of years of these conversions was that I had to guess at what the league average really was in any given season, as David was using multi-year probabilities. This led to weird happenstances where every third baseman was "above average", which makes no sense, so I had to guess at what the average really was. The last two years, David seems to be using one-year probabilities, and in fact major league shortstops were "predicted" to have made 15,904 outs last year when they really made 15,913. This is a negligible difference, and the predicted DER and observed DER are the same for several decimals. (The MLB total also allows me to properly state the number of predicted outs a SS would have in 150 games, which is 490 [actually 491, so sue me for rounding], and what the second column represents.)

2. At some point I need to go back and re-code the various PMR models, but David is using something called the "smoothed visitor model", which is I believe the second version of PMR. He did this last year, as well.

3. As such, use caution when comparing these figures to years before 2006. I believe the smoothed visitor model was introduced in 2005, so it's the same version -- but my "re-center" of the MLB average was an estimate and not an absolute. This caveat will apply for every position.

4. In 2005, we saw, in addition to these figures, groundball-only figures for infielders. For the past two seasons, the figures have been for every kind of batted ball. Zone rating and MGL's Ultimate Zone Rating do not account for popups and line drives, so, again, use caution when comparing these figures to runs generated by or estimated from other systems.

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