Thursday, August 23, 2007
VOODOO SHIELDS (SLIGHT RETURN)
Hey gang.
Yeah, I haven't been around lately.
Here's the thing: my general approach to writing this is that I want to either (1) tell my readership something it doesn't know or (2) provide some kind of different perspective on something that it does.
Often, there's a lot of overlap between things I don't know and things I assume y'all don't know, so for me it's fun to go through and figure out answers -- or, at least, potential answers -- and share them. That's the sort of post where I look at the Angels going from first to third or analyzing Casey Kotchman's batted balls or the efficacy of the team's bunting.
But, the fact is, there isn't really a lot that you don't know that I can tell you. I don't have a lot of readers here, and anyone who reads me is also reading the other Angel blogs in the Halosphere, all of whom do fine work, and most of which have a bigger readership than I do. So anyone reading this is someone who already knows quite a bit about the Angels, and that makes it hard for me to come up with stuff you don't know.
For instance, we all know about this:
Why is this happening?
It struck me that Scot's command has seemed off, as evidenced by his high walk rate. He has thrown 315 pitches in those innings, only 179 (57%) of which are strikes. Major league pitchers throw strikes 63% of the time; Scot is usually around there (his season mark is 62%), but he's clearly been subpar over the past five weeks.
It gets worse once you consider that balls in play count as strikes. 23 hits in 13 innings is ... it's not good.
How does this performance compare to how Shields was doing before this slump?
As you may recall, Scot was struggling back in May, which I discussed here. Let's break down it down even further, as he heated up pretty much right after I made that post:
Now is that problem physical, mechanical, or psychological?
I don't know. There's nothing about this I can tell you that you don't already know. But if he can't get it figured out, our ability to win close games is going to be severely hampered, and so will this team's chances of winning anything worthwhile.
NOTE: Yes, this post title (or, rather, its inspiration would have been better-suited to a post about Ervin Santana's return to the rotation. But I didn't post anything then, so what am I gonna do?
Yeah, I haven't been around lately.
Here's the thing: my general approach to writing this is that I want to either (1) tell my readership something it doesn't know or (2) provide some kind of different perspective on something that it does.
Often, there's a lot of overlap between things I don't know and things I assume y'all don't know, so for me it's fun to go through and figure out answers -- or, at least, potential answers -- and share them. That's the sort of post where I look at the Angels going from first to third or analyzing Casey Kotchman's batted balls or the efficacy of the team's bunting.
But, the fact is, there isn't really a lot that you don't know that I can tell you. I don't have a lot of readers here, and anyone who reads me is also reading the other Angel blogs in the Halosphere, all of whom do fine work, and most of which have a bigger readership than I do. So anyone reading this is someone who already knows quite a bit about the Angels, and that makes it hard for me to come up with stuff you don't know.
For instance, we all know about this:
IP H SO BB ERAYou know what that is, right? That's Scot Shields' line from July 15 forward. He's been a mess, and it's costing us games.
13 23 13 10 11.08
Why is this happening?
It struck me that Scot's command has seemed off, as evidenced by his high walk rate. He has thrown 315 pitches in those innings, only 179 (57%) of which are strikes. Major league pitchers throw strikes 63% of the time; Scot is usually around there (his season mark is 62%), but he's clearly been subpar over the past five weeks.
It gets worse once you consider that balls in play count as strikes. 23 hits in 13 innings is ... it's not good.
How does this performance compare to how Shields was doing before this slump?
Period Pitches Total Strikes Hits Non-H Strikes %For the first three months of the season (which included an early slump), 60% of Shields' pitches were what we might consider "effective strikes"; strikes of swinging, called, foul, or a batted ball out. For the last five weeks, less than half of his pitches have been of this nature!
4/2-7/15 744 474 27 447 60.1
7/15-Now 315 179 23 156 49.5
As you may recall, Scot was struggling back in May, which I discussed here. Let's break down it down even further, as he heated up pretty much right after I made that post:
Period Pitches Total Strikes % Hits Non-H Strikes % ERAWell, that makes it all pretty obvious, doesn't it? He's not throwing strikes, and, when he is, they're getting hit. He doesn't have command. Even his prior slump isn't out of range with what he does when totally on, which was a sign that a turnaround was likely; this current slump is far, far worse, and I don't know what to make of it. He simply can't locate his pitches.
4/2-4/9 98 63 64.3 2 61 62.2 0.00
4/10-5/14 247 152 61.5 7 145 58.7 4.80
5/15-7/14 413 269 65.1 18 251 60.8 0.32
7/15-Now 315 179 56.8 23 156 49.5 11.08
Now is that problem physical, mechanical, or psychological?
I don't know. There's nothing about this I can tell you that you don't already know. But if he can't get it figured out, our ability to win close games is going to be severely hampered, and so will this team's chances of winning anything worthwhile.
NOTE: Yes, this post title (or, rather, its inspiration would have been better-suited to a post about Ervin Santana's return to the rotation. But I didn't post anything then, so what am I gonna do?
Labels: Scot Shields
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
SHIELDS DOWN, CAPTAIN!
As you are aware, and Mike DiGiovanna writes about it today in case you aren't, Scot Shields has struggled a bit in the early going, at least by his very high standards.
Scottie's numbers are down almost universally across the board; though he is striking out batters more frequently than in the past, he's issuing more walks and allowing home runs at a far more rapid rate; he's already allowed half as many taters as he did all of last season, despite not pitching a quarter of as many innings.
Is there cause to worry?
Let's see, right now he's pitches just over 20 innings. Let's see if he's had any other stretches like this.
Hmm, here's one. It's not a comforting one, though: it comes from near the end of last season. From August 2 through September 5, Shields pitched in 17 games, throwing 20 innings, striking out 23 and walking 8. He allowed 4 home runs in that span.
What did he do after that? His next ten games saw him pitch 11-and-a-third innings with a 0.79 ERA. So there's an example of a bounce-back from a bad stretch, though obviously not too long-lasting.
How about slumps earlier in the year? Here's a bad stretch in 2005; not quite as bad, but not too hot, either: a 4.84 ERA over 22 1/3, but a good strikeout-to-walk ratio, and only two home runs. Shields bounced back well from that, too.
Looking at his pitch data briefly, on his BB-Ref page ... he's throwing strikes just as much as he always was, but he is only throwing first-pitch strikes to 55% of batters, where the last three years he's been at 59% and his career mark is 60%. That doesn't seem to be a real factor; in opposing plate appearances that pass through a 1-0 count, Shields has only allowed a 111/314/222 AVG/OBP/SLG line.
I think this shall pass. I could be wrong; I guess I've been doing a lot of rosy color lately. It's possible that Shields workload in previous seasons has taken its toll. He is 31, so maybe it's just his decline. But I have to think that he'll start walking less guys, especially given that he's throwing as many strikes as usual, and giving up less home runs. 21.8% of the flyballs he's allowed this year have gone over the fence. He should be closer to 10%, and that high number is unlikely to continue.
Hopefully I'm right, and these blown wins and blown saves will be nothing but a distant memory come September.
Scottie's numbers are down almost universally across the board; though he is striking out batters more frequently than in the past, he's issuing more walks and allowing home runs at a far more rapid rate; he's already allowed half as many taters as he did all of last season, despite not pitching a quarter of as many innings.
Is there cause to worry?
Let's see, right now he's pitches just over 20 innings. Let's see if he's had any other stretches like this.
Hmm, here's one. It's not a comforting one, though: it comes from near the end of last season. From August 2 through September 5, Shields pitched in 17 games, throwing 20 innings, striking out 23 and walking 8. He allowed 4 home runs in that span.
What did he do after that? His next ten games saw him pitch 11-and-a-third innings with a 0.79 ERA. So there's an example of a bounce-back from a bad stretch, though obviously not too long-lasting.
How about slumps earlier in the year? Here's a bad stretch in 2005; not quite as bad, but not too hot, either: a 4.84 ERA over 22 1/3, but a good strikeout-to-walk ratio, and only two home runs. Shields bounced back well from that, too.
Looking at his pitch data briefly, on his BB-Ref page ... he's throwing strikes just as much as he always was, but he is only throwing first-pitch strikes to 55% of batters, where the last three years he's been at 59% and his career mark is 60%. That doesn't seem to be a real factor; in opposing plate appearances that pass through a 1-0 count, Shields has only allowed a 111/314/222 AVG/OBP/SLG line.
I think this shall pass. I could be wrong; I guess I've been doing a lot of rosy color lately. It's possible that Shields workload in previous seasons has taken its toll. He is 31, so maybe it's just his decline. But I have to think that he'll start walking less guys, especially given that he's throwing as many strikes as usual, and giving up less home runs. 21.8% of the flyballs he's allowed this year have gone over the fence. He should be closer to 10%, and that high number is unlikely to continue.
Hopefully I'm right, and these blown wins and blown saves will be nothing but a distant memory come September.
Labels: Scot Shields
