Monday, May 30, 2005
SORRY, GARRET
I dissed Garret Anderson for not hustling on a play the other night ... turns out, from the replay, that he twisted his ankle on same play and was clearly limping as he pursued the ball. So I was wrong to criticize him for no effort. But I am right to criticize him for crappy defensive play.
As for today's game, I ain't talking about it ...
I dissed Garret Anderson for not hustling on a play the other night ... turns out, from the replay, that he twisted his ankle on same play and was clearly limping as he pursued the ball. So I was wrong to criticize him for no effort. But I am right to criticize him for crappy defensive play.
As for today's game, I ain't talking about it ...
Saturday, May 28, 2005
A SERIES OF MEMORANDA
TO: Steve Physioc
FROM: Chronicles
When the Angels trail 4-1, and score one run to make it 4-2, they have not "cut the lead in half," as you have stated at least twice this season. They have cut the lead to half, they have cut the lead by one-third.
***
TO: Steve Finley
FROM: Chronicles
You are the slowest center fielder I have ever seen.
***
TO: Esteban Yan
FROM: Chronicles
Hey, Sucko: I'm glad we didn't win the bottom of the ninth, your sucky ass didn't deserve the win.
***
TO: Mike Sweeney
FROM: Chronicles
Join us.
***
TO: Garret Anderson
FROM: Chronicles
The next time a ball gets by you, try running hard after it instead of jogging like Getting There is just an option.
***
TO: Adam Kennedy
FROM: Chronicles
Not that I'm complaining, but I think if you keep hitting doubles to the left-center gap to score Orlando Cabrera from first, our opponents may begin to catch on.
***
TO: God
FROM: Chronicles
Thank you for creating the Kansas City Royals.
***
TO: Dallas McPherson
FROM: Chronicles
Now that's what I'm talking about.
TO: Steve Physioc
FROM: Chronicles
When the Angels trail 4-1, and score one run to make it 4-2, they have not "cut the lead in half," as you have stated at least twice this season. They have cut the lead to half, they have cut the lead by one-third.
***
TO: Steve Finley
FROM: Chronicles
You are the slowest center fielder I have ever seen.
***
TO: Esteban Yan
FROM: Chronicles
Hey, Sucko: I'm glad we didn't win the bottom of the ninth, your sucky ass didn't deserve the win.
***
TO: Mike Sweeney
FROM: Chronicles
Join us.
***
TO: Garret Anderson
FROM: Chronicles
The next time a ball gets by you, try running hard after it instead of jogging like Getting There is just an option.
***
TO: Adam Kennedy
FROM: Chronicles
Not that I'm complaining, but I think if you keep hitting doubles to the left-center gap to score Orlando Cabrera from first, our opponents may begin to catch on.
***
TO: God
FROM: Chronicles
Thank you for creating the Kansas City Royals.
***
TO: Dallas McPherson
FROM: Chronicles
Now that's what I'm talking about.
Wednesday, May 25, 2005
ESTEBAN YAN SUCKS
I only caught the last inning of last night's game live, and the result was such that I didn't go back and watch the rest of the game. I really could have done with either Joel Peralta or Jake Woods in the game instead of Yan, who has to be considered a last resort under all circumstances.
So, it looks like Colon pitched well, and once again the Angel starters on a good streak, the highlight of which was certainly the Ervin Santana game. After his first game, I mentioned that he needed to have three pitches working to make it as a starter ... watching him the other night, it was clear that he did have a functioning slider and change, both of which hover around 83 MPH but have slightly different movement. That has to be tough to pick up for the batter, especially on the heels of a 94-MPH fastball. Ervin was great on hitting the corners, was not goofing off with breaking stuff up in the zone, and only threw a few bad pitches, most of which he got away with (thank you, Carl Everett, for your useless foul-offs of belt-high fastballs).
The possibility that the return of a healthy Kelvim Escobar would give the Angels one more good starter than they need sends beat writers' hearts a-flutter, and today Mike DiGiovanna checks in with Ace Washburn and the possibility he could be traded for the likes of Mike Sweeney or Aubrey Huff.
Would such a move be worthwhile? Just looking at the guys we might get, the answer is positive. Sweeney and Huff both project as guys that should have OPS+'s in the 120-125 range, which is a substantial improvement over Jeff DaVanon (who you would expect to be around 105) and Juan Rivera (who had a career-high 118 last season). Sweeney has started the season hot while Huff has struggled, but it is essential to note that Huff has been rather durable in the past while Sweeney has played in less than 110 games in each of the last two seasons. Also, Huff can play first and the corner oufield positions, not to mention (nominally) third base. Sweeney is a DH/1B exclusively.
But you're betting a lot on the continued health of Escobar and the young arm of Santana to cough up Washburn. And Washburn wouldn't likely be the only piece of such a trade; the trading partner would certainly request a top prospect, and though Kendry Morales might end up making Casey Kotchman expendable, it might be too early to make that determination -- especially for a GM as cautious as Bill Stoneman.
Another question to ask is if Juan Rivera can win the DH job while filling in for Vlad. He certainly can of course ... he's raised his AVG/OBP/SLG line from 238/273/333 before he took over for Vlad to 250/277/400, going 5 for 17 (a .294 average) with 2 HR (but no walks) in that period. A continued resurgence from Rivera might make acquiring a DH superfluous.
What would acquiring a full-time DH -- or giving Rivera the job -- do to Legs Figgins? He would still get plenty of time spotting third and/or second against tough lefties, and filling in in the outfield. He's not tearing up the ball at the plate so far this year, but his line -- 267/315/382 -- is basically 30 points of batting average off his line last year (296/350/419). That's only a difference of about five hits, a difference that can certainly be made up to return Chone to his regular offensive levels.
Should the Angels look to acquire Sweeney or his ilk? It's clear that the offense is in a dire place, even if Vlad returns at full force. But can the offense be expected to improve on its own merits, without making changes?
I believe that Kennedy, Cabrera, Figgins, and Bengie will all sort out to their expected performances, which for Kennedy and Figgins is just above average and for the others is acceptable in combination with their defense. So those guys aren't the source of the problem.
Darin Erstad will likely get a little better, but still fall short of good. Garret may or may not improve, depending on his health. Finley has no choice but to improve, and you'd think DaVanon and Rivera would with more at-bats.
The problem is, like last year, this is pretty much a middle-of-the-road offense even with everyone playing to expectations. Having a DH combo (Figgins and DaVanon) whose combined offense is only 2-5% better than average is a big opportunity missed. If Rivera can't step up to show he deserves more time in the DH slot, it's a spot ripe for improvement.
But how much can the position be improved? The difference between Mike Sweeney and a roughly league-average hitter for the next 400 plate appearances of the season is about 12 runs, or just about a win. As we witnessed last season, one win can be huge in the AL West.
But would gaining such a hitter cost too much? Not just in salary -- Sweeney is owed quite a bit, though KC would likely pick up some of it to rid themselves the entire burden -- but in players. Is Sweeney or Huff worth Wash and Kotch? How about Wash and Mathis? Wash and Mike Napoli? Washburn at all? How about getting one of those guys for just prospects. Kotch and Reggie Willits? Where is the line drawn?
Because if you gain a win by weakening the rotation and losing a win there, well, you haven't gained anything at all. So whether or not we should actively pursue one of these guys depends a lot on the next couple of weeks. Can Kelvim get healthy? Can Santana excel consistently? Can Rivera make a drive at DH? Can McPherson get things going, or will the club decide they need to Win Now and dispatch him to the minors, putting The Legs at third and opening a big door at DH (not that I consider that likely, I'm just sayin')? Will Morales produce in such a way as to get moved aggressively up the pipeline and make Kotchman redundant?
Will such a trade happen? Given that it's Bill Stoneman, I doubt it. The Angels have too many internal options, and he holds onto his prospects with the tightest vise. But the next few weeks should be very telling about what direction the team needs to take to get to the next level.
I only caught the last inning of last night's game live, and the result was such that I didn't go back and watch the rest of the game. I really could have done with either Joel Peralta or Jake Woods in the game instead of Yan, who has to be considered a last resort under all circumstances.
So, it looks like Colon pitched well, and once again the Angel starters on a good streak, the highlight of which was certainly the Ervin Santana game. After his first game, I mentioned that he needed to have three pitches working to make it as a starter ... watching him the other night, it was clear that he did have a functioning slider and change, both of which hover around 83 MPH but have slightly different movement. That has to be tough to pick up for the batter, especially on the heels of a 94-MPH fastball. Ervin was great on hitting the corners, was not goofing off with breaking stuff up in the zone, and only threw a few bad pitches, most of which he got away with (thank you, Carl Everett, for your useless foul-offs of belt-high fastballs).
The possibility that the return of a healthy Kelvim Escobar would give the Angels one more good starter than they need sends beat writers' hearts a-flutter, and today Mike DiGiovanna checks in with Ace Washburn and the possibility he could be traded for the likes of Mike Sweeney or Aubrey Huff.
Would such a move be worthwhile? Just looking at the guys we might get, the answer is positive. Sweeney and Huff both project as guys that should have OPS+'s in the 120-125 range, which is a substantial improvement over Jeff DaVanon (who you would expect to be around 105) and Juan Rivera (who had a career-high 118 last season). Sweeney has started the season hot while Huff has struggled, but it is essential to note that Huff has been rather durable in the past while Sweeney has played in less than 110 games in each of the last two seasons. Also, Huff can play first and the corner oufield positions, not to mention (nominally) third base. Sweeney is a DH/1B exclusively.
But you're betting a lot on the continued health of Escobar and the young arm of Santana to cough up Washburn. And Washburn wouldn't likely be the only piece of such a trade; the trading partner would certainly request a top prospect, and though Kendry Morales might end up making Casey Kotchman expendable, it might be too early to make that determination -- especially for a GM as cautious as Bill Stoneman.
Another question to ask is if Juan Rivera can win the DH job while filling in for Vlad. He certainly can of course ... he's raised his AVG/OBP/SLG line from 238/273/333 before he took over for Vlad to 250/277/400, going 5 for 17 (a .294 average) with 2 HR (but no walks) in that period. A continued resurgence from Rivera might make acquiring a DH superfluous.
What would acquiring a full-time DH -- or giving Rivera the job -- do to Legs Figgins? He would still get plenty of time spotting third and/or second against tough lefties, and filling in in the outfield. He's not tearing up the ball at the plate so far this year, but his line -- 267/315/382 -- is basically 30 points of batting average off his line last year (296/350/419). That's only a difference of about five hits, a difference that can certainly be made up to return Chone to his regular offensive levels.
Should the Angels look to acquire Sweeney or his ilk? It's clear that the offense is in a dire place, even if Vlad returns at full force. But can the offense be expected to improve on its own merits, without making changes?
I believe that Kennedy, Cabrera, Figgins, and Bengie will all sort out to their expected performances, which for Kennedy and Figgins is just above average and for the others is acceptable in combination with their defense. So those guys aren't the source of the problem.
Darin Erstad will likely get a little better, but still fall short of good. Garret may or may not improve, depending on his health. Finley has no choice but to improve, and you'd think DaVanon and Rivera would with more at-bats.
The problem is, like last year, this is pretty much a middle-of-the-road offense even with everyone playing to expectations. Having a DH combo (Figgins and DaVanon) whose combined offense is only 2-5% better than average is a big opportunity missed. If Rivera can't step up to show he deserves more time in the DH slot, it's a spot ripe for improvement.
But how much can the position be improved? The difference between Mike Sweeney and a roughly league-average hitter for the next 400 plate appearances of the season is about 12 runs, or just about a win. As we witnessed last season, one win can be huge in the AL West.
But would gaining such a hitter cost too much? Not just in salary -- Sweeney is owed quite a bit, though KC would likely pick up some of it to rid themselves the entire burden -- but in players. Is Sweeney or Huff worth Wash and Kotch? How about Wash and Mathis? Wash and Mike Napoli? Washburn at all? How about getting one of those guys for just prospects. Kotch and Reggie Willits? Where is the line drawn?
Because if you gain a win by weakening the rotation and losing a win there, well, you haven't gained anything at all. So whether or not we should actively pursue one of these guys depends a lot on the next couple of weeks. Can Kelvim get healthy? Can Santana excel consistently? Can Rivera make a drive at DH? Can McPherson get things going, or will the club decide they need to Win Now and dispatch him to the minors, putting The Legs at third and opening a big door at DH (not that I consider that likely, I'm just sayin')? Will Morales produce in such a way as to get moved aggressively up the pipeline and make Kotchman redundant?
Will such a trade happen? Given that it's Bill Stoneman, I doubt it. The Angels have too many internal options, and he holds onto his prospects with the tightest vise. But the next few weeks should be very telling about what direction the team needs to take to get to the next level.
Tuesday, May 24, 2005
WATCH LIST UPDATE
Wow, can you believe it's been nearly three weeks since I did this last? Time flies when you're having fun. So let's get to it.
Erick Aybar
SS, AA Arkansas
Alberto Callaspo
2B, AA Arkansas
Nick Gorneault
OF, AAA Salt Lake
Howie Kendrick
2B, A Rancho Cucamonga
Baltasar Lopez
1B, A Rancho Cucamonga
Warner Madrigal
OF, A Cedar Rapids
Jeff Mathis
C, AAA Salt Lake
NEW ADDITION!
Kendry Morales
1B, A Rancho Cucamonga
Mike Napoli
C/1B, AA Arkansas
Sean Rodriguez
SS, A Cedar Rapids
Andrew Toussaint
2B, A Cedar Rapids
Reggie Willits
OF, AA Arkansas
Brandon Wood
SS, A Rancho Cucamonga
Steve Andrade
RP, AA New Hampshire (Blue Jays org)
Daniel Davidson
SP, AA Arkansas
Abel Moreno
Has not played.
Ervin Santana
SP, AA Arkansas
Steve Shell
SP, AA Arkansas
Von Stertzbach
RP, AA Arkansas
Bob Zimmerman
RP, A Rancho Cucamonga
Wow, can you believe it's been nearly three weeks since I did this last? Time flies when you're having fun. So let's get to it.
Erick Aybar
SS, AA Arkansas
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGAn all-around slump for the young middle infielder. Erick, those footsteps you hear belong to Brandon Wood.
Now 158 39 9 1 1 9 18 247 315 335
Then 82 24 6 1 0 2 8 293 341 390
Alberto Callaspo
2B, AA Arkansas
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGThe walk-to-strikeout ratio is nice, and he's walking at a decent rate. The added power is also welcome.
Now 172 51 5 0 5 17 10 297 356 413
Then 97 30 3 0 1 10 6 309 370 371
Nick Gorneault
OF, AAA Salt Lake
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGHe started the season rather punchlessly, but the power has been gradually returning. He is what he is.
Now 129 40 9 3 6 10 29 310 355 566
Then 73 23 6 1 1 7 16 315 370 466
Howie Kendrick
2B, A Rancho Cucamonga
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGWhat?! He's not really a .400 hitter!? Enough of this bum ... but, seriously, with his walks he's going to have to hit about .320 in the majors to have a good OBP, though the power could go a ways toward alleviating that problem.
Now 177 66 11 4 9 9 30 373 406 633
Then 111 46 7 2 8 7 19 414 459 730
Baltasar Lopez
1B, A Rancho Cucamonga
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGMaybe this guy was a product of the juice.
Now 92 17 3 0 0 10 29 185 262 217
Then 37 5 0 0 0 2 10 135 175 135
Warner Madrigal
OF, A Cedar Rapids
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGHe's staying on the list because I don't remove people. So far.
Now 129 28 4 0 6 1 33 217 227 388
Then 77 17 2 0 4 1 24 221 231 403
Jeff Mathis
C, AAA Salt Lake
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGUh-oh. Remember, Jeff started off hot last year before slumping big-time, and his 10-55 over the last few weeks looks familiar. Hopefully it's just a blip.
Now 106 29 8 1 7 11 23 274 342 566
Then 51 19 7 1 2 5 11 373 421 667
NEW ADDITION!
Kendry Morales
1B, A Rancho Cucamonga
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGSo far, so good.
Now 13 5 1 0 1 1 2 385 429 692
Mike Napoli
C/1B, AA Arkansas
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGHe's walking a bit less, but he's been pretty consistent so far this season.
Now 135 37 11 0 4 30 44 274 414 444
Then 70 20 8 0 1 20 21 286 452 443
Sean Rodriguez
SS, A Cedar Rapids
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGGood control of the strike zone, and the average is finally beginning to creep up.
Now 150 38 9 2 2 26 22 253 381 380
Then 86 19 4 1 1 11 14 221 316 326
Andrew Toussaint
2B, A Cedar Rapids
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGAn interesting start ... a lot of walks, even more strikeouts, but not much power yet. It's still early in his season.
Now 84 23 7 0 1 16 27 274 404 393
Then 37 12 4 0 0 5 11 324 409 432
Reggie Willits
OF, AA Arkansas
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGCould he grow up to be Chris Prieto?
Now 169 56 10 4 0 23 23 331 408 438
Then 99 38 9 3 0 12 12 384 451 535
Brandon Wood
SS, A Rancho Cucamonga
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGNo one strikes out four times as much as he walks and hits .330 for very long.
Now 171 52 11 2 15 11 43 304 342 655
Then 106 35 5 2 10 7 27 330 368 698
Steve Andrade
RP, AA New Hampshire (Blue Jays org)
When? W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAFREE STEVE ANDRADE!
Now 0 2 1 12 0 17.0 4 0 20 7 1.59
Then 0 1 0 6 0 7.7 2 0 11 2 1.17
Daniel Davidson
SP, AA Arkansas
When? W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERANot much change here.
Now 4 1 0 8 7 42.3 51 4 28 11 4.04
Then 3 1 0 5 5 25.3 37 2 18 7 3.91
Abel Moreno
Has not played.
Ervin Santana
SP, AA Arkansas
When? W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAAnyone know what he's been up to lately?
Now 5 1 0 7 7 39.0 34 2 32 15 2.31
Then 5 0 0 5 5 30.0 26 1 20 13 2.10
Steve Shell
SP, AA Arkansas
When? W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAGradually getting better, though he needs to keep the ball in the ballpark more often.
Now 1 4 0 9 9 50.0 55 9 45 21 4.68
Then 1 2 0 5 5 27.7 29 4 21 10 4.88
Von Stertzbach
RP, AA Arkansas
When? W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERACrawling back to respectability; despite a couple of losses, he's been improving all of his numbers after a rocky opening to the season.
Now 1 2 5 19 0 22.7 26 3 21 10 4.37
Then 1 0 5 12 0 12.0 13 2 9 7 4.50
Bob Zimmerman
RP, A Rancho Cucamonga
When? W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERADespite some control problems, Zimmerman has been minimizing the earned runs he's allowed. So it looks like he's getting there.
Now 1 4 6 18 0 18.3 20 1 22 12 4.42
Then 1 3 3 11 0 10.7 14 1 11 5 6.75
WOW
Okay, so maybe he's ready.
Okay, so maybe he's ready.
Monday, May 23, 2005
WEEKEND NOTES
- Yes, Virginia, there is a Kendry. Almost as on cue from my bitching on Friday, Kendry appeared stateside and, as I'm sure you know, homered on his first swing in the United States. It will be interesting to see how the Angels handle him, now that he's here. He was allegedly a major league-quality hitter in Bill Stoneman's (or Eddie Bane's) mind when he was signed, but given his long layoff from competitive play and the acclimation issues, it makes sense to start him at High A Rancho Cucamonga.
- And if Vlad's only out for a couple of weeks and it's no problem, that might give Juan Rivera an opportunity to demonstrate that there is no urgency in throwing Kendry into the DH situation. Rivera has hardly had any at-bats this season, but he's found his power stroke in May, hitting three home runs in 42 AB. He's been a slow starter before, so if his heating up just happens to coincide with Vlad's injury and guarantees Rivera a bigger piece of the DH pie, that could work out okay.
- Of course, if Vlad is out more for than the expected couple of weeks, or if his return is marred by a shoulder that deteriorates his play, that's a big problem. Our 9-0 victory, essentially without Vlad, on Friday is much more exception than rule (thank you, Scott Erickson), and when Vlad's been in a relative slump, as he has been of late, this is a team scrambling to score runs. They're obviously going to get better at a number of positions, but Vlad's the one that makes the whole thing tick.
- That said, we did well to take two out of three in Chavez Ravine. Our starting rotation now has an ERA of 3.94 on the year, which drops down to 3.62 when you take out Ervin Santana and Kevin Gregg. I forgot who it was that first identified Gregg as the "White Flag" of the Angel pen (was it Rob? UPDATE: Rob credits Richard for using it yesterday, but I know I read it before then, so it must have been one of the BTF guys), but it's highly appropriate and I hereby co-opt the moniker for my own nefarious purposes.
Gregg has just been awful so far this year, and he's been awful for a pretty long time. He has a 6.32 ERA since the 2004 All Star Break, and a 6.40 ERA since the end of May, 2004 -- a period that occupies 77 1/3 innings. Over that timeframe his control has deteriorated, and his K:BB ratio is less than two-to-one over the past year. He has only one more strikeout than walk this year, and is the king of wild pitches. When you're pitching even worse than Esteban Yan, who sucks, you gotta think your days are numbered.
- Tonight the Lads begin a three-night dalliance with the Chicago White Sox, who are off to the best start in the major leagues. Though no one is surprised to see the Sox competitive in the AL Central, the fact that they have a winning percentage above .700 has come out of nowhere -- and despite what you may have heard about this team being a Go-Go-Sox-Redux, the real source of their success has been that little hill in the middle of the infield. The Sox are tied for sixth in the AL in runs scored, but their 3.20 ERA is first in the league by over half a run.
Leading the surprising charge is tonight's starter, Jon Garland. Garland, a perennial prospect, enters today 8-0 with a 2.41 ERA in nearly 60 innings. As much potential as he has demonstrated in the past, Garland has only been a league-average pitcher up to this point. Of course, now he's 25 years old, so maybe he's making a leap into fulfilling that potential.
The oddest thing about Garland's stat line is that he has only struck out 27 men in his 59 2/3 innings, an incredibly low rate (and below his career norms). He has managed good control, walking only 10 guys in those innings, and he's only allowed two home runs; so that's how he has found success. Garland has been an extreme groundball pitcher this year, so his philosophy is to let guys hit the ball at someone. That may seem sound, but the number of guys in history who can succeed while striking out so few guys is extremely limited. Hopefully the Angels can give Garland a history lesson tonight, because young Santana will likely need all the help his offense can muster.
- Yes, Virginia, there is a Kendry. Almost as on cue from my bitching on Friday, Kendry appeared stateside and, as I'm sure you know, homered on his first swing in the United States. It will be interesting to see how the Angels handle him, now that he's here. He was allegedly a major league-quality hitter in Bill Stoneman's (or Eddie Bane's) mind when he was signed, but given his long layoff from competitive play and the acclimation issues, it makes sense to start him at High A Rancho Cucamonga.
- And if Vlad's only out for a couple of weeks and it's no problem, that might give Juan Rivera an opportunity to demonstrate that there is no urgency in throwing Kendry into the DH situation. Rivera has hardly had any at-bats this season, but he's found his power stroke in May, hitting three home runs in 42 AB. He's been a slow starter before, so if his heating up just happens to coincide with Vlad's injury and guarantees Rivera a bigger piece of the DH pie, that could work out okay.
- Of course, if Vlad is out more for than the expected couple of weeks, or if his return is marred by a shoulder that deteriorates his play, that's a big problem. Our 9-0 victory, essentially without Vlad, on Friday is much more exception than rule (thank you, Scott Erickson), and when Vlad's been in a relative slump, as he has been of late, this is a team scrambling to score runs. They're obviously going to get better at a number of positions, but Vlad's the one that makes the whole thing tick.
- That said, we did well to take two out of three in Chavez Ravine. Our starting rotation now has an ERA of 3.94 on the year, which drops down to 3.62 when you take out Ervin Santana and Kevin Gregg. I forgot who it was that first identified Gregg as the "White Flag" of the Angel pen (was it Rob? UPDATE: Rob credits Richard for using it yesterday, but I know I read it before then, so it must have been one of the BTF guys), but it's highly appropriate and I hereby co-opt the moniker for my own nefarious purposes.
Gregg has just been awful so far this year, and he's been awful for a pretty long time. He has a 6.32 ERA since the 2004 All Star Break, and a 6.40 ERA since the end of May, 2004 -- a period that occupies 77 1/3 innings. Over that timeframe his control has deteriorated, and his K:BB ratio is less than two-to-one over the past year. He has only one more strikeout than walk this year, and is the king of wild pitches. When you're pitching even worse than Esteban Yan, who sucks, you gotta think your days are numbered.
- Tonight the Lads begin a three-night dalliance with the Chicago White Sox, who are off to the best start in the major leagues. Though no one is surprised to see the Sox competitive in the AL Central, the fact that they have a winning percentage above .700 has come out of nowhere -- and despite what you may have heard about this team being a Go-Go-Sox-Redux, the real source of their success has been that little hill in the middle of the infield. The Sox are tied for sixth in the AL in runs scored, but their 3.20 ERA is first in the league by over half a run.
Leading the surprising charge is tonight's starter, Jon Garland. Garland, a perennial prospect, enters today 8-0 with a 2.41 ERA in nearly 60 innings. As much potential as he has demonstrated in the past, Garland has only been a league-average pitcher up to this point. Of course, now he's 25 years old, so maybe he's making a leap into fulfilling that potential.
The oddest thing about Garland's stat line is that he has only struck out 27 men in his 59 2/3 innings, an incredibly low rate (and below his career norms). He has managed good control, walking only 10 guys in those innings, and he's only allowed two home runs; so that's how he has found success. Garland has been an extreme groundball pitcher this year, so his philosophy is to let guys hit the ball at someone. That may seem sound, but the number of guys in history who can succeed while striking out so few guys is extremely limited. Hopefully the Angels can give Garland a history lesson tonight, because young Santana will likely need all the help his offense can muster.
Friday, May 20, 2005
JERED WEAVER: CAMDEN RIVERSHARK
Jered Weaver has signed with the Camden Riversharks of the independent Atlantic League, joining Stephen Drew.
Meanwhile, Kendry Morales still has yet to set foot in the United States. And our top pitching prospect gave up the cycle to the first four batters he faced in the majors.
We still have a week-and-a-half to sign Weaver.
That is all.
Jered Weaver has signed with the Camden Riversharks of the independent Atlantic League, joining Stephen Drew.
Meanwhile, Kendry Morales still has yet to set foot in the United States. And our top pitching prospect gave up the cycle to the first four batters he faced in the majors.
We still have a week-and-a-half to sign Weaver.
That is all.
THE MOST HORRIBLE TIME OF THE YEAR
I have grown to really hate interleague play. The novelty was kind of fun at first, but I've turned against it in recent years. To what degree? To the degree that if you told me the only way to get rid of interleague play was to forego my boycott of the apocryphal Star Wars III, I would gladly plop down my $10 to see George Lucas spend two hours spitting on my childhood.
My objections to interleague play are severalfold, so I'll just start somewhere and see where I end up.
For one, it makes a mockery of the schedule. I grew up with the two-division leagues, and it was good. Still, I understand the desire for three more geographically correct divisions. And if you have three divisions, you have to have a wild card team, since you want to assure that the best two teams make the playoffs, and also because it would be awkward to give a team a bye week.
But once you introduce the unbalanced schedule into the equation, the validity of the wild card is called into question, since not all teams are on equal footing; some teams will have easier schedules than others.
But I guess you can forgive this on the grounds that each division is its own entity, and so the wild card just comes out of those different entities. Okay. But that grants that each team in a division would have the same schedule -- which, with interleague and the stupid consistent rivalries and rotations, we lack in spades.
This just strikes me as poppycock.
Furthermore, I think interleague play diminishes the worth of the All Star Game (which was never all that much, anyway, to me), and to a small degree the World Series. The Red Sox and Cubs will play each other in interleague play this year. What?! Maybe I'm just being overtraditionalist, but I think the only time we should see such an apocalyptic match-up is in October.
Also, interleague play introduces silly nonexistent "rivalries." I'm sorry, but the Angels and the D-----s are not a rivalry. The Mariners and the Rockies are not a rivalry. And I'm sure the Mets are ecstatic that they have to play the Yankees every year, while their divisional rivals in Florida get to play the Devil Rays. What is this nonsense?
But I'm clearly in the minority, and as a result the Lads go into Los Angeles of Chavez Ravine tonight, where we will try to gain ground on our divisional opponents by beating a team that none of them will play this year. Oh well.
The pressing question: will Scott Erickson cure the Angel bats? And while I think DePo is a pretty sharp guy ... Scott Erickson? What? How is this man employed as a major league pitcher?
What scares me is that the Angel bats have spent this year acting as cures for journeyman pitchers. It's time to turn that around.
I have grown to really hate interleague play. The novelty was kind of fun at first, but I've turned against it in recent years. To what degree? To the degree that if you told me the only way to get rid of interleague play was to forego my boycott of the apocryphal Star Wars III, I would gladly plop down my $10 to see George Lucas spend two hours spitting on my childhood.
My objections to interleague play are severalfold, so I'll just start somewhere and see where I end up.
For one, it makes a mockery of the schedule. I grew up with the two-division leagues, and it was good. Still, I understand the desire for three more geographically correct divisions. And if you have three divisions, you have to have a wild card team, since you want to assure that the best two teams make the playoffs, and also because it would be awkward to give a team a bye week.
But once you introduce the unbalanced schedule into the equation, the validity of the wild card is called into question, since not all teams are on equal footing; some teams will have easier schedules than others.
But I guess you can forgive this on the grounds that each division is its own entity, and so the wild card just comes out of those different entities. Okay. But that grants that each team in a division would have the same schedule -- which, with interleague and the stupid consistent rivalries and rotations, we lack in spades.
This just strikes me as poppycock.
Furthermore, I think interleague play diminishes the worth of the All Star Game (which was never all that much, anyway, to me), and to a small degree the World Series. The Red Sox and Cubs will play each other in interleague play this year. What?! Maybe I'm just being overtraditionalist, but I think the only time we should see such an apocalyptic match-up is in October.
Also, interleague play introduces silly nonexistent "rivalries." I'm sorry, but the Angels and the D-----s are not a rivalry. The Mariners and the Rockies are not a rivalry. And I'm sure the Mets are ecstatic that they have to play the Yankees every year, while their divisional rivals in Florida get to play the Devil Rays. What is this nonsense?
But I'm clearly in the minority, and as a result the Lads go into Los Angeles of Chavez Ravine tonight, where we will try to gain ground on our divisional opponents by beating a team that none of them will play this year. Oh well.
The pressing question: will Scott Erickson cure the Angel bats? And while I think DePo is a pretty sharp guy ... Scott Erickson? What? How is this man employed as a major league pitcher?
What scares me is that the Angel bats have spent this year acting as cures for journeyman pitchers. It's time to turn that around.
Thursday, May 19, 2005
THREE DAYS
Yesterday, The Big Mango pitched on three days rest, and the short layover didn't bother him at all. As you know, he allowed only eight runs in four innings, allowing only four hits.
Caveats? Only three strikeouts against four walks, and he was pitching against the team that runs forgot -- a team that, somehow, has managed to have been outscored by even the Angels to this point in the season (166-153, for those keeping score).
You may recall, as there have been abundant reminders of late, the last time Colon went on three days rest in an Angels uniform. It was on Friday, October 1, A.D. 2004, when Colon went seven shutout innings against the A's in NetAss, striking out six and allowing only three hits en route to a division-tying victory.
I was trying to find Colon's career stats on three-day vs. four-day rest, and though they have been recently quoted to some small degree in papers, I could not find them. I think it's safe to say that Colon loses nothing coming back from three days rest every once in awhile, based on yesterday and October 1, A.D. 2004. But could he sustain that over an extended period of time?
My honest answer is that I have no clue, and I can't prove a yes or a no on that one. My gut belief is: of course he could. My gut belief is: just about every starting pitcher will be just as effective on three days rest as on four days rest. Yes, you might -- actually, probably should -- pitch each guy less per start. But even in so doing, you'd be giving more of your total innings to your best pitchers. And isn't that a good thing?
Y'see, I'm one of those people that believes re-installing the four-man rotation would go a long way towards solving the problems faced by modern society. I looked at this before last season, and came to an Earth-shattering conclusion: fifth starters are horrible. Every fifth day, most major league teams are putting out a guy with an ERA over 5.00. Does this make sense?
Look at it this way: last season the Angels threw 1454 1/3 innings. The top four starters -- Escobar, Colon, Washburn, and Lackey -- threw 764 1/3 innings: 52.5% of the total. That's artifically lowered because Wash got hurt, so let's go ahead and say he really threw 198 1/3 innings just like John Lackey did. Doing that means that our top four pitchers would have thrown 55.9% of the team's innings, not a big difference.
In the meantime, Aaron Sele and Ramon Ortiz threw 200 2/3 innings in the rotation, or 13.8% of the total innings of the team.
The top four guys, who had an ERA of 4.56, averaged 6.16 innings per start. The two guys that flopped in the fifth spot, to a tune of a 5.20 ERA, averaged 5.28 innings per start.
Let's pretend that we could have the top four guys start every game. We would have 162 games x 6.16 innings = 998 innings for those guys. With a 4.56 ERA, that's 505.65 earned runs allowed.
How many earned runs did the Angel rotation really allow in 2004? 503. But in only 964 innings: the team takes thirty more innings -- over three games worth -- to get to the same number of runs allowed in the four-man scenario*.
The first objection to this reasoning is that, if pitchers were in a strict four-man rotation, they could not actually pitch 6.16 innings per start. Let's say the average would drop to 6.00. In that case, they would allow 492.48 earned runs in 972 innings. The team would pick up ten runs and eight innings; the ten runs is about one win and the eight innings is about a game's worth, so that's still a good trade-off.
And you might have noticed that giving the four guys 162 starts at 6 innings per -- or 972 innings -- is more than if you gave them 131 starts (162 less 31 starts for the fifth guy[s]) at 6.16 innings per -- which is only 807 innings. That's 165 innings you don't have to waste on middle relievers, in this hypothetical perfect world. The four allegedly top pitchers now account for 66.8% of innings thrown instead of ~55%.
The big pragmatic question, which of cousre will never be answered, is: Can these guys actually pitch consistently on three days rest, even with a reduced workload? This is never going to be answered because no one's going to risk it unless circumstances get overly dire.
The Angels came into this season with five solid starters, plus Kevin Gregg, plus Scot Shields (who will return to the rotation when Darin Erstad, who I cannot make fun of for six more days, returns to center field). So it probably wouldn't make sense to have gone to a four-man rotation at the beginning of the year. (Of course, the need for the fifth man meant that The Wyrd had to be signed, which took money out of our pool to sign a DH and a center fielder instead of a DH to play center field, but I digress.) But right now, what seems like a better alternative while Escobar is on the DL:
1. Start Kevin "7.06 ERA" Gregg,
2. Start Ervin "I'm Too Young for this S**t" Santana, or
3. Get the four guys to sack up and go on three days rest for two weeks?
Maybe the Angel arms couldn't take it, and my four-man vision is an unattainable Utopia. But I trust Bartolo Colon more after three days than four days, and he did a hell of a job yesterday.
*If you give Wash as many innings as he would have had had he averaged as many per start for 33 starts, he would have allowed 102 ER in 197 IP instead of 77 in 149.3; taking those innings away from Ramon Ortiz (the worst starter) gets Ortiz down to 19 ER in 31.3 innings. Add it all up, and the revised number is 499 earned runs allowed by the rotation in 964 innings -- so we're looking at the same comparison, really.
Yesterday, The Big Mango pitched on three days rest, and the short layover didn't bother him at all. As you know, he allowed only eight runs in four innings, allowing only four hits.
Caveats? Only three strikeouts against four walks, and he was pitching against the team that runs forgot -- a team that, somehow, has managed to have been outscored by even the Angels to this point in the season (166-153, for those keeping score).
You may recall, as there have been abundant reminders of late, the last time Colon went on three days rest in an Angels uniform. It was on Friday, October 1, A.D. 2004, when Colon went seven shutout innings against the A's in NetAss, striking out six and allowing only three hits en route to a division-tying victory.
I was trying to find Colon's career stats on three-day vs. four-day rest, and though they have been recently quoted to some small degree in papers, I could not find them. I think it's safe to say that Colon loses nothing coming back from three days rest every once in awhile, based on yesterday and October 1, A.D. 2004. But could he sustain that over an extended period of time?
My honest answer is that I have no clue, and I can't prove a yes or a no on that one. My gut belief is: of course he could. My gut belief is: just about every starting pitcher will be just as effective on three days rest as on four days rest. Yes, you might -- actually, probably should -- pitch each guy less per start. But even in so doing, you'd be giving more of your total innings to your best pitchers. And isn't that a good thing?
Y'see, I'm one of those people that believes re-installing the four-man rotation would go a long way towards solving the problems faced by modern society. I looked at this before last season, and came to an Earth-shattering conclusion: fifth starters are horrible. Every fifth day, most major league teams are putting out a guy with an ERA over 5.00. Does this make sense?
Look at it this way: last season the Angels threw 1454 1/3 innings. The top four starters -- Escobar, Colon, Washburn, and Lackey -- threw 764 1/3 innings: 52.5% of the total. That's artifically lowered because Wash got hurt, so let's go ahead and say he really threw 198 1/3 innings just like John Lackey did. Doing that means that our top four pitchers would have thrown 55.9% of the team's innings, not a big difference.
In the meantime, Aaron Sele and Ramon Ortiz threw 200 2/3 innings in the rotation, or 13.8% of the total innings of the team.
The top four guys, who had an ERA of 4.56, averaged 6.16 innings per start. The two guys that flopped in the fifth spot, to a tune of a 5.20 ERA, averaged 5.28 innings per start.
Let's pretend that we could have the top four guys start every game. We would have 162 games x 6.16 innings = 998 innings for those guys. With a 4.56 ERA, that's 505.65 earned runs allowed.
How many earned runs did the Angel rotation really allow in 2004? 503. But in only 964 innings: the team takes thirty more innings -- over three games worth -- to get to the same number of runs allowed in the four-man scenario*.
The first objection to this reasoning is that, if pitchers were in a strict four-man rotation, they could not actually pitch 6.16 innings per start. Let's say the average would drop to 6.00. In that case, they would allow 492.48 earned runs in 972 innings. The team would pick up ten runs and eight innings; the ten runs is about one win and the eight innings is about a game's worth, so that's still a good trade-off.
And you might have noticed that giving the four guys 162 starts at 6 innings per -- or 972 innings -- is more than if you gave them 131 starts (162 less 31 starts for the fifth guy[s]) at 6.16 innings per -- which is only 807 innings. That's 165 innings you don't have to waste on middle relievers, in this hypothetical perfect world. The four allegedly top pitchers now account for 66.8% of innings thrown instead of ~55%.
The big pragmatic question, which of cousre will never be answered, is: Can these guys actually pitch consistently on three days rest, even with a reduced workload? This is never going to be answered because no one's going to risk it unless circumstances get overly dire.
The Angels came into this season with five solid starters, plus Kevin Gregg, plus Scot Shields (who will return to the rotation when Darin Erstad, who I cannot make fun of for six more days, returns to center field). So it probably wouldn't make sense to have gone to a four-man rotation at the beginning of the year. (Of course, the need for the fifth man meant that The Wyrd had to be signed, which took money out of our pool to sign a DH and a center fielder instead of a DH to play center field, but I digress.) But right now, what seems like a better alternative while Escobar is on the DL:
1. Start Kevin "7.06 ERA" Gregg,
2. Start Ervin "I'm Too Young for this S**t" Santana, or
3. Get the four guys to sack up and go on three days rest for two weeks?
Maybe the Angel arms couldn't take it, and my four-man vision is an unattainable Utopia. But I trust Bartolo Colon more after three days than four days, and he did a hell of a job yesterday.
*If you give Wash as many innings as he would have had had he averaged as many per start for 33 starts, he would have allowed 102 ER in 197 IP instead of 77 in 149.3; taking those innings away from Ramon Ortiz (the worst starter) gets Ortiz down to 19 ER in 31.3 innings. Add it all up, and the revised number is 499 earned runs allowed by the rotation in 964 innings -- so we're looking at the same comparison, really.
Wednesday, May 18, 2005
WOW
Thrilling 2-1 win over Cleveland today ... I was basically raging about our Lads from the bottom of the first yesterday until the top of the ninth today, but they pulled it out, thanks to Adam Kennedy, Legs Figgins, and Darin Erstad (who I will not make fun of for one week) getting all clutch on us. Bengie made the right kind of out, and we get the win.
Adam Kennedy has one of the weirdest lines you'll see for awhile (this is coming into today's game):
Okay,JohanErvin Santana:
Good things: His fastball is fast. He seemed to have reasonable control of his slider. He was getting hitters out with his pitches, hitting corners with his fastball and slider. He's not afraid to come inside, and he jammed a few guys into popups and weak grounders.
Bad things: Falling behind in the count, followed by a fastball down the middle. He needed to establish the slider earlier, probably. He basically only has those two pitchers; Rex identified one of his pitches as a change, but it was the same speed as his nominal slider and moved the same way, so take that for what it's worth. Also, he likes to go high in the strike zone, and seemingly went intentionally high and in with the slider to jam a guy or two. When it works, perfect, when it doesn't: bam!
I think the kid needs to develop a third pitch before he can stick in a major league rotation. And he definitely needs to have better alternatives on 2-0 than fastballs down the pipe. Of course, even terrific major league starters have bad starts and miss their spots; but even so I think it's obvious that the kid has a lot of honing to do. He's young; he has time. I'm not worried.
Thrilling 2-1 win over Cleveland today ... I was basically raging about our Lads from the bottom of the first yesterday until the top of the ninth today, but they pulled it out, thanks to Adam Kennedy, Legs Figgins, and Darin Erstad (who I will not make fun of for one week) getting all clutch on us. Bengie made the right kind of out, and we get the win.
Career vs LHPWhile we're at it, Bengie is the slowest human alive, and has a 1.11 career groundball-to-flyball ratio; DaVanon's is 1.04. But it worked, so we move on.
Player AB AVG OBP SLG
Molina 600 260 299 430
DaVanon 111 252 352 405
Adam Kennedy has one of the weirdest lines you'll see for awhile (this is coming into today's game):
AB H 2B 3B HR BB HBP P/PAThat last column is pitches per plate appearances ... 4.07 would be Kennedy's highest mark ever in that regard, his current high being 3.96 last year. Despite working counts and seeing pitches, Adam is now up to 46 plate appearances without a walk. Or, for that matter, an extra-base hit. In his career, he averages about 20 plate appearances per non-intentional walk and about 14 plate appearances per extra-base hit. So that's just an odd quirk of small samples.
42 10 0 0 0 0 1 4.07
Okay,
Good things: His fastball is fast. He seemed to have reasonable control of his slider. He was getting hitters out with his pitches, hitting corners with his fastball and slider. He's not afraid to come inside, and he jammed a few guys into popups and weak grounders.
Bad things: Falling behind in the count, followed by a fastball down the middle. He needed to establish the slider earlier, probably. He basically only has those two pitchers; Rex identified one of his pitches as a change, but it was the same speed as his nominal slider and moved the same way, so take that for what it's worth. Also, he likes to go high in the strike zone, and seemingly went intentionally high and in with the slider to jam a guy or two. When it works, perfect, when it doesn't: bam!
I think the kid needs to develop a third pitch before he can stick in a major league rotation. And he definitely needs to have better alternatives on 2-0 than fastballs down the pipe. Of course, even terrific major league starters have bad starts and miss their spots; but even so I think it's obvious that the kid has a lot of honing to do. He's young; he has time. I'm not worried.
Monday, May 16, 2005
WET BLANKET
May I temper everyone's expectations for a moment? Yes? Thank you.
Ervin Santana will start for the Lads on Wednesday. I'll admit it; I find this tremendously exciting. It's always a thrill when a ballyhooed prospect makes his major league debut, and Santana has terrific potential.
But.
But bringing him up now starts his arbitration clock, and chances are he's not ready to pitch in the majors right now. His walk rate is .090 walks per batter faced (the AL average last year was around .084, just for some context on what that number means), which is a little bit higher than we'd like to see. Here are how his rate stats compare to the rest of the Texas League (BF is an estimate of Batters Faced [IP x 3 + H + BB]); the last row is how much better Santana is than league average, with 100 being average and higher numbers being better:
Of course, there's no one else in the system who looks better. Here's Steven Shell:
May I temper everyone's expectations for a moment? Yes? Thank you.
Ervin Santana will start for the Lads on Wednesday. I'll admit it; I find this tremendously exciting. It's always a thrill when a ballyhooed prospect makes his major league debut, and Santana has terrific potential.
But.
But bringing him up now starts his arbitration clock, and chances are he's not ready to pitch in the majors right now. His walk rate is .090 walks per batter faced (the AL average last year was around .084, just for some context on what that number means), which is a little bit higher than we'd like to see. Here are how his rate stats compare to the rest of the Texas League (BF is an estimate of Batters Faced [IP x 3 + H + BB]); the last row is how much better Santana is than league average, with 100 being average and higher numbers being better:
K/BF BB/BF HR/BF H/BFSo the walks are the only blight on his record thus far. But as good as his performance has been, I don't think it's dominance to the degree that he can be expected to be a quality major league starter right out of the gate.
Ervin Santana .193 .090 .012 .205
Texas League .163 .084 .019 .235
118 93 158 115
Of course, there's no one else in the system who looks better. Here's Steven Shell:
K/BF BB/BF HR/BF H/BFChris Bootcheck at AAA:
Steven Shell .163 .093 .035 .233
Texas League .163 .084 .019 .235
100 90 54 101
K/BF BB/BF HR/BF H/BFSo, while Santana is the best choice, let's remember that he's only 22 years old -- he's almost exactly one year younger than Frankie Rodriguez. So we need to temper our expectations ... okay, this whole thing is mostly a reminder to myself. But so be it.
C. Bootcheck .171 .099 .018 .234
The PCL .179 .098 .026 .232
96 99 144 99
Thursday, May 12, 2005
KELVIM DL'D
For bone spurs. His DL'ing sends Lou Merloni to the 60-day list.
Called up to replace Kelvim is Chris Prieto. Huh? Prieto's been in the minors since 1993, so if he gets to play in the majors, that will be a nice story. But I don't really know what he's supposed to do for the Lads for more than a couple of days; he's hitting 279/422/430 through 86 at-bats in Salt Lake. He's always been a good eye-no power kind of guy. Who knows, maybe this will make Jeff DaVanon look over his shoulder ... or (conspiracy time) maybe DaVanon is potential trade bait for a replacement starter (if Kelvim has to undergo the knife) and this will be Prieto's chance to see if he can wrest the high-walks-no-power roster spot away from him. You'd have to think a pitcher's going to be called up soon, though ...
UPDATE: Nice little article on Prieto published today. Guys like this are fun to root for, so hopefully he'll be up long enough to actually get into a game, and not just be a phantom call-up for one-day roster shenanigans.
For bone spurs. His DL'ing sends Lou Merloni to the 60-day list.
Called up to replace Kelvim is Chris Prieto. Huh? Prieto's been in the minors since 1993, so if he gets to play in the majors, that will be a nice story. But I don't really know what he's supposed to do for the Lads for more than a couple of days; he's hitting 279/422/430 through 86 at-bats in Salt Lake. He's always been a good eye-no power kind of guy. Who knows, maybe this will make Jeff DaVanon look over his shoulder ... or (conspiracy time) maybe DaVanon is potential trade bait for a replacement starter (if Kelvim has to undergo the knife) and this will be Prieto's chance to see if he can wrest the high-walks-no-power roster spot away from him. You'd have to think a pitcher's going to be called up soon, though ...
UPDATE: Nice little article on Prieto published today. Guys like this are fun to root for, so hopefully he'll be up long enough to actually get into a game, and not just be a phantom call-up for one-day roster shenanigans.
MY BRAIN HURTS
"I'm concerned about our on-base percentage .... but here's what really worries me: we've had 297 runners in scoring position. Boston has had 480."
-- Mike Scioscia, quoted in The OC Register
Do I even need to get started on this? I mean, good Lord ... the Angels' OBP is .294. Boston's is .361. Boston has had 445 humans reach base this season, not counting home runs. The Lads have had 336 reach.
I have no idea where Scioscia's numbers come from, let's put home runs back into the equation ... counting homers, Boston has had 482 baserunners ... I'm sorry, but there's no way 480 out of 482 Boston baserunners have been in scoring position. But, anyway ... the real problem is that you can't get into scoring position if you don't reach base. But maybe that's just me ...
"I'm concerned about our on-base percentage .... but here's what really worries me: we've had 297 runners in scoring position. Boston has had 480."
-- Mike Scioscia, quoted in The OC Register
Do I even need to get started on this? I mean, good Lord ... the Angels' OBP is .294. Boston's is .361. Boston has had 445 humans reach base this season, not counting home runs. The Lads have had 336 reach.
I have no idea where Scioscia's numbers come from, let's put home runs back into the equation ... counting homers, Boston has had 482 baserunners ... I'm sorry, but there's no way 480 out of 482 Boston baserunners have been in scoring position. But, anyway ... the real problem is that you can't get into scoring position if you don't reach base. But maybe that's just me ...
MY SOLUTION
... to our pathetic homestand is to ignore it, and talk about something else.
Interesting little article by Sabernomics' JC Bradbury at The Hardball Times. JC takes play-by-play data from batters to figure out what a batter's OPS should have been. The article explains it better than I can, but basically it seems like JC takes a batter's line drives, flyballs, grounballs, home run park, etc., and runs a regerssion to determine how many of each hit he should have had, and thus can formulate a "Projected OPS" for that batter.
It's important to note that, by JC's own admission, this is a work-in-progress. Theoretically, having such a measure might indicate to us what batters have been hitting in exceptionally good or bad luck. As an example, here are the top two "over-performers" in the majors in 2004 -- PrOPS is this "Projected OPS" figure and PrOPS+ is the amount of points in OPS by which the batter exceeds the PrOPS Estimate.
So you have to use common sense here, and since it's a work-in-progress, some healthy skepticism. But the idea seems generally sound, given the speed caveat.
What does this say about the Angels? Well, the Angels let one 2004 "underperformer" go in David Eckstein, but signed two others in Steve Finley and Orlando Cabrera. I suspect Eckstein's underperformance might come from the fact that though he hits line drives, they're often weak little line drives, relatively unlikely to become hits. Steve Finley may have underperformed because, frankly, he's not very fast anymore. Cabrera ... well, he's relatively quick, maybe that's just bad luck.
The Legs and Juan Rivera both rank amongst 2004's "overperformers". With Figgins, the reason is obvious, it's the Ichiro! reason (there are a number of other speedy guys on the same list). Rivera ... well, the way he's hit so far this year, maybe he was lucky last year.
So you can see 2005 marks through May 8 here. You have to scroll down to see the Angels (the thing I hate most about the name change is that we're no longer at the top of every alphabetical list), and you'll see that just about every guy on the team is underperforming by this measure. Vlad is the only guy significantly above expectations, which -- whatever, it's Vlad. But everyone else seems to be hitting the ball okay, they're just not getting the hits. You knew that last part, but here's another hint that we're due to emerge from the funk.
I'm not saying this PrOPS is the gospel, but I think it's an interesting attempt worth noting. I'm most interesting in seeing if PrOPS turns out to be a better predictor of OPS than OPS itself. But I do think some allowance for speed has to be introduced into the equation, otherwise Ichiro! and Figgins and their ilk will always be underestimated.
... to our pathetic homestand is to ignore it, and talk about something else.
Interesting little article by Sabernomics' JC Bradbury at The Hardball Times. JC takes play-by-play data from batters to figure out what a batter's OPS should have been. The article explains it better than I can, but basically it seems like JC takes a batter's line drives, flyballs, grounballs, home run park, etc., and runs a regerssion to determine how many of each hit he should have had, and thus can formulate a "Projected OPS" for that batter.
It's important to note that, by JC's own admission, this is a work-in-progress. Theoretically, having such a measure might indicate to us what batters have been hitting in exceptionally good or bad luck. As an example, here are the top two "over-performers" in the majors in 2004 -- PrOPS is this "Projected OPS" figure and PrOPS+ is the amount of points in OPS by which the batter exceeds the PrOPS Estimate.
Player OPS PrOPS PrOPS+Okay. First you see Snow, so you think, "Hey, that guy probably was a bit lucky last year." But then you see Ichiro!, and you note that one thing this measure is missing is the fact that speedy players are often going to get more hits than they "should" have based on their number of groundballs, etc. Ichiro! obviously gets hits on groundballs at a higher rate than most humans; in fact, that's a large part of his game.
JT Snow 958 846 +112
Ichiro! 869 774 + 95
So you have to use common sense here, and since it's a work-in-progress, some healthy skepticism. But the idea seems generally sound, given the speed caveat.
What does this say about the Angels? Well, the Angels let one 2004 "underperformer" go in David Eckstein, but signed two others in Steve Finley and Orlando Cabrera. I suspect Eckstein's underperformance might come from the fact that though he hits line drives, they're often weak little line drives, relatively unlikely to become hits. Steve Finley may have underperformed because, frankly, he's not very fast anymore. Cabrera ... well, he's relatively quick, maybe that's just bad luck.
The Legs and Juan Rivera both rank amongst 2004's "overperformers". With Figgins, the reason is obvious, it's the Ichiro! reason (there are a number of other speedy guys on the same list). Rivera ... well, the way he's hit so far this year, maybe he was lucky last year.
So you can see 2005 marks through May 8 here. You have to scroll down to see the Angels (the thing I hate most about the name change is that we're no longer at the top of every alphabetical list), and you'll see that just about every guy on the team is underperforming by this measure. Vlad is the only guy significantly above expectations, which -- whatever, it's Vlad. But everyone else seems to be hitting the ball okay, they're just not getting the hits. You knew that last part, but here's another hint that we're due to emerge from the funk.
I'm not saying this PrOPS is the gospel, but I think it's an interesting attempt worth noting. I'm most interesting in seeing if PrOPS turns out to be a better predictor of OPS than OPS itself. But I do think some allowance for speed has to be introduced into the equation, otherwise Ichiro! and Figgins and their ilk will always be underestimated.
Tuesday, May 10, 2005
OR MAYBE WE JUST SUCK
This is officially getting ridiculous. And Frankie wants to stay here? Dude, you can't get saves if you play for a team that can't score runs.
So last night Darin Erstad and Legs Figgins switched places in the order ... I never really understood why Erstad was considered a lead-off guy, anyway. Last season was the first time he had an above-average OBP since his alien-infested 2000 campaign. Unless he can hit above .290, he's not really a guy well-suited to the top of the order ... of course, I don't know who else you'd put up there right now. Adam Kennedy's OBP the last three seasons is 23 points higher than Erstad's, but Adam is clearly not up to full speed at the plate since his recent return. Jeff DaVanon is another guy who has been historically adept at reaching base, but he's been slumping and doesn't have a position right now.
The only other real possibility might be Steven Allen Finley. The Old Man has had pretty good plate discipline this year, by the standards of the Angels: his 9 walks (tied with Vlad, of all people) are second on the team to Figgins' 10, and his .082 walks drawn per at-bat well exceed the team mark of .072. His problem thus far hasn't been drawing walks or even hitting for power, but getting hits at all. We know he's a notorious slow starter, and we also know that he's not really a .182 hitter. Maintaining his plate discipline (and he's actually walking slightly less this season than over the course of his career) and returning his average to his normal levels wouldn't light the world on fire, but it's likely a better alternative than Erstad in the two-hole.
Another benefit would be that Finley's legitimate power threat would put pitchers in a bind were Figgins to reach in front of him. Throw off-speed and let The Legs thieve a bag, or keep him on first by throwing fastballs that Father Time can sit on and turn around? And though I'm not a big believer in "protection," it's not like having Finley hit in front of Vlad is going to hurt him.
The only problem is that no one is really suited to the five-hold behind Garret. The team really could use another real power bat -- and McPherson has yet to demonstrate that he's ready to step into that role. But when you have a team that doesn't walk and doesn't hit for power, you're relying on the singles to drop in, and as we see now, that doesn't always happen. This likely won't be the only slump we see from the Halos this year.
This is officially getting ridiculous. And Frankie wants to stay here? Dude, you can't get saves if you play for a team that can't score runs.
So last night Darin Erstad and Legs Figgins switched places in the order ... I never really understood why Erstad was considered a lead-off guy, anyway. Last season was the first time he had an above-average OBP since his alien-infested 2000 campaign. Unless he can hit above .290, he's not really a guy well-suited to the top of the order ... of course, I don't know who else you'd put up there right now. Adam Kennedy's OBP the last three seasons is 23 points higher than Erstad's, but Adam is clearly not up to full speed at the plate since his recent return. Jeff DaVanon is another guy who has been historically adept at reaching base, but he's been slumping and doesn't have a position right now.
The only other real possibility might be Steven Allen Finley. The Old Man has had pretty good plate discipline this year, by the standards of the Angels: his 9 walks (tied with Vlad, of all people) are second on the team to Figgins' 10, and his .082 walks drawn per at-bat well exceed the team mark of .072. His problem thus far hasn't been drawing walks or even hitting for power, but getting hits at all. We know he's a notorious slow starter, and we also know that he's not really a .182 hitter. Maintaining his plate discipline (and he's actually walking slightly less this season than over the course of his career) and returning his average to his normal levels wouldn't light the world on fire, but it's likely a better alternative than Erstad in the two-hole.
Another benefit would be that Finley's legitimate power threat would put pitchers in a bind were Figgins to reach in front of him. Throw off-speed and let The Legs thieve a bag, or keep him on first by throwing fastballs that Father Time can sit on and turn around? And though I'm not a big believer in "protection," it's not like having Finley hit in front of Vlad is going to hurt him.
The only problem is that no one is really suited to the five-hold behind Garret. The team really could use another real power bat -- and McPherson has yet to demonstrate that he's ready to step into that role. But when you have a team that doesn't walk and doesn't hit for power, you're relying on the singles to drop in, and as we see now, that doesn't always happen. This likely won't be the only slump we see from the Halos this year.
Monday, May 09, 2005
OUTAGE
If you are observant, you will have suspected that the Angel offense has left quite a bit to be desired in the early going. JA Adande verifies such suspicions with an expose today in the LA Times.
Like most Adande columns, this treatise on the offensive Angel offense is one big non sequitur, as it turns into a discussion of the "Los Angeles" appendage to the Angel cognomen. But then he somehow ends up the thing by saying the Lads should dispatch Jarrod Washburn somewhere for a hitter.
Yes, the offense has been bleak of late, but why the panic? It's not like the team is doing this badly with everyone hitting up to expectations:
We're [b]one month into the season[/b]. It's not time to panic over the offense as yet. These guys just aren't bound to hit like this for the rest of the season.
If you are observant, you will have suspected that the Angel offense has left quite a bit to be desired in the early going. JA Adande verifies such suspicions with an expose today in the LA Times.
Like most Adande columns, this treatise on the offensive Angel offense is one big non sequitur, as it turns into a discussion of the "Los Angeles" appendage to the Angel cognomen. But then he somehow ends up the thing by saying the Lads should dispatch Jarrod Washburn somewhere for a hitter.
Yes, the offense has been bleak of late, but why the panic? It's not like the team is doing this badly with everyone hitting up to expectations:
This Year CareerThe real problem the offense is having is that only two guys are meeting expectations. Everyone else is in a slump right now, or hurt.
AVG OBP SLG AVG OBP SLG Is likely to:
BMolina 323 389 581 269 305 390 Decline
JMolina 160 250 220 235 278 323 Improve
Erstad 256 298 376 288 343 422 Improve
Kennedy 167 167 167 277 328 404 Improve
Figgins 286 336 420 293 345 404 Maintain
McPherson 200 254 345 211 265 400 Improve
Quinlan 156 182 344 304 355 455 Improve
Cabrera 239 306 398 268 315 409 Improve
Anderson 295 320 426 299 329 476 Improve
Finley 187 261 421 275 336 450 Improve
Vlad 322 380 585 325 390 589 Maintain
DaVanon 214 282 257 259 342 413 Improve
Rivera 227 277 273 285 336 439 Improve
We're [b]one month into the season[/b]. It's not time to panic over the offense as yet. These guys just aren't bound to hit like this for the rest of the season.
Friday, May 06, 2005
PERCY-IN-CHIEF
Mike DiGiovanna has a nice article in the Times about Troy Percival's return to Los Angeles of Anaheim in an opposing uniform.
You know how we always credit Mike Scioscia and Bud Black for their great work in constructing the Angel bullpen? Maybe some of that credit should go to Percy:
At the same time, I agree with the decision to let him go and get overpaid by someone else. So there's some cognitive dissonance there. So like his former teammates, I wish Percy the best -- except for when he's playing us.
And let's hope he doesn't have the Angel pitchers (and batter, for that matter) so figured out that he can explain to his current teammates how to beat us.
Mike DiGiovanna has a nice article in the Times about Troy Percival's return to Los Angeles of Anaheim in an opposing uniform.
You know how we always credit Mike Scioscia and Bud Black for their great work in constructing the Angel bullpen? Maybe some of that credit should go to Percy:
When setup man Brendan Donnelly struggled in his first four games this season, giving up five earned runs and two home runs, Percival called the right-hander with some advice. In his next seven games, Donnelly threw 8 2/3 scoreless innings, lowering his earned-run average from 7.94 to 3.14.I, of course, have less than no idea of what Troy's plans are for retirement. But it would be great to see him as a pitching coach in the Angels organization, if for no other reason than it's just wrong to see him in another team's clothes.
"He saw something I wasn't doing on the mound, and I went back to doing it, and it helped," said Donnelly, who still speaks with Percival several times a week.
...
When Shields gave up a homer in his first game April 5 and blew a save while filling in for closer Francisco Rodriguez against Texas on April 7, Percival passed some advice to Shields through Donnelly.
"He said even though I'm throwing the seventh and eighth innings, and sometimes the ninth, just pitch like you have your whole career, don't change anything," Shields said.
At the same time, I agree with the decision to let him go and get overpaid by someone else. So there's some cognitive dissonance there. So like his former teammates, I wish Percy the best -- except for when he's playing us.
And let's hope he doesn't have the Angel pitchers (and batter, for that matter) so figured out that he can explain to his current teammates how to beat us.
Wednesday, May 04, 2005
WATCH LIST UPDATE
It's been two weeks since I last did this, so here we go again. Each's player's stats as of last time (April 19) are also presented.
Erick Aybar
SS, AA Arkansas
Alberto Callaspo
2B, AA Arkansas
Nick Gorneault
OF, AAA Salt Lake
Howie Kendrick
2B, A Rancho Cucamonga
Baltasar Lopez
1B, A Rancho Cucamonga
Warner Madrigal
OF, A Cedar Rapids
Jeff Mathis
C, AAA Salt Lake
Mike Napoli
C/1B, AA Arkansas
Sean Rodriguez
SS, A Cedar Rapids
Andrew Toussaint
2B, A Cedar Rapids
NEW ADDITION!
Reggie Willits
OF, AA Arkansas
He's been unexceptional but decent up until this year, but so far in 2005:
Brandon Wood
SS, A Rancho Cucamonga
Steve Andrade
RP, AA New Hampshire (Blue Jays org)
Daniel Davidson
SP, AA Arkansas
Abel Moreno
Has not played.
Ervin Santana
SP, AA Arkansas
Steve Shell
SP, AA Arkansas
Von Stertzbach
RP, AA Arkansas
Bob Zimmerman
RP, A Rancho Cucamonga
ALSO: John Sickels breaks down some of our middle infield guys at Future Angels.
It's been two weeks since I last did this, so here we go again. Each's player's stats as of last time (April 19) are also presented.
Erick Aybar
SS, AA Arkansas
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGYou see he's picked up the average, but the power is not there at all. He somehow lost a walk, which means I probably had a typo last time.
Now 82 24 6 1 0 2 8 293 341 390
Then 43 10 3 1 0 3 2 233 292 349
Alberto Callaspo
2B, AA Arkansas
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGThe walks are a nice addition, even though the batting average has come down to Earth. He's stroked a few more doubles in the last couple of weeks. As this is his second year at AA, continued improvement would be welcome.
Now 97 30 3 0 1 10 6 309 370 371
Then 45 16 1 0 0 3 2 356 388 378
Nick Gorneault
OF, AAA Salt Lake
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGThat's more like it, as Gorneault rediscovers his power, raising his isolated power to .151. Still, this is a guy that has to hit .300 to be of much worth.
Now 73 23 6 1 1 7 16 315 370 466
Then 39 11 4 0 0 4 9 282 349 385
Howie Kendrick
2B, A Rancho Cucamonga
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGUm, I'm not going to complain about that.
Now 111 46 7 2 8 7 19 414 459 730
Then 58 23 2 1 4 1 10 397 407 672
Baltasar Lopez
1B, A Rancho Cucamonga
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGAfter having served the first two weeks of the season on a drug suspension, Baltasar is getting blown away right now.
Now 37 5 0 0 0 2 10 135 175 135
Then 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- --- ---
Warner Madrigal
OF, A Cedar Rapids
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGHe's getting worked, and is working his way toward non-prospect status. But he has improved in the last two weeks, so don't give up yet.
Now 77 17 2 0 4 1 24 221 231 403
Then 33 6 1 0 1 0 11 182 182 303
Jeff Mathis
C, AAA Salt Lake
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGThe strong start continues, though his power and walks went away in the last couple of weeks. Still, he wasn't going to hit .400 forever; he aint' Howie Kendrick.
Now 51 19 7 1 2 5 11 373 421 667
Then 27 11 6 1 2 5 6 407 500 926
Mike Napoli
C/1B, AA Arkansas
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGCan you believe all those walks? A little less power and he'd fit right in in the A's organization.
Now 70 20 8 0 1 20 21 286 452 443
Then 32 9 5 0 1 9 11 281 442 531
Sean Rodriguez
SS, A Cedar Rapids
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGThe hits aren't falling, and the walks won't be enough to make Brandon Wood hear footsteps if that continues.
Now 86 19 4 1 1 11 14 221 316 326
Then 36 9 1 0 1 5 6 250 341 361
Andrew Toussaint
2B, A Cedar Rapids
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGHow would you feel if that start still kept you pretty much last on the organizational depth chart?
Now 37 12 4 0 0 5 11 324 409 432
Then 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- --- ---
NEW ADDITION!
Reggie Willits
OF, AA Arkansas
He's been unexceptional but decent up until this year, but so far in 2005:
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGHe's also stolen 10 bases in 12 attempts; he has a good sense of the strike zone and is getting some doubles, as well. Keep your eyes open.
Now 99 38 9 3 0 12 12 384 451 535
Brandon Wood
SS, A Rancho Cucamonga
When? AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLGSomeone's enjoying the Cal League. I love the new power, but I hate the strikeout-to-walk ratio. But this is easily the best Wood has played, hitters' league or no.
Now 106 35 5 2 10 7 27 330 368 698
Then 51 15 0 0 5 6 12 294 368 588
Steve Andrade
RP, AA New Hampshire (Blue Jays org)
When? W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAFREE STEVE ANDRADE!
Now 0 1 0 6 0 7.7 2 0 11 2 1.17
Then 0 0 0 3 0 4.7 0 0 7 1 0.00
Daniel Davidson
SP, AA Arkansas
When? W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERASome rockiness, but overall not bad.
Now 3 1 0 5 5 25.3 37 2 18 7 3.91
Then 2 0 0 2 2 11.7 14 0 8 1 2.31
Abel Moreno
Has not played.
Ervin Santana
SP, AA Arkansas
When? W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAThe strikeouts and walks are improving, and though he's given up a few more runs, it's still well within the margin of good. Does a point come where Santana moves to AAA? He's young and you don't want to rush him, but if his ERA's still below 2.50 in a month, you have to wonder what more the Texas League will hold for him. But we get ahead of ourselves ...
Now 5 0 0 5 5 30.0 26 1 20 13 2.10
Then 2 0 0 2 2 13.0 8 0 5 5 0.69
Steve Shell
SP, AA Arkansas
When? W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAHis last two starts, as you see, have been pretty good, as in 14 IP he's struck out 13 and only walked 2, while only allowing 12 hits and lowering his ERA by nearly two runs.
Now 1 2 0 5 5 27.7 29 4 21 10 4.88
Then 0 1 0 3 3 13.7 17 2 8 8 6.59
Von Stertzbach
RP, AA Arkansas
When? W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAHe's allowed 5 unearned runs, as well. He doesn't seem to have done so much better in the last two weeks than in the two weeks before that.
Now 1 0 5 12 0 12.0 13 2 9 7 4.50
Then 1 0 3 6 0 7.3 8 1 4 3 4.91
Bob Zimmerman
RP, A Rancho Cucamonga
When? W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAAh, relievers' ERA are fun in the beginning of the season! His last six innings are rather unremarkable.
Now 1 3 3 11 0 10.7 14 1 11 5 6.75
Then 1 2 1 5 0 4.7 8 1 8 3 11.57
ALSO: John Sickels breaks down some of our middle infield guys at Future Angels.
Tuesday, May 03, 2005
ONE MONTH IN
So we're just about one month into the season, and, overall things look pretty good. I'm still pleased about the series against the Yankees, disarray or no, and taking that last game in Minnesota was big; losing a series on the road to a strong team is no crisis, and eking out a win against Johan Santana is no small feat. And, despite his poor day at the plate and early jitters afield, seeing Adam Kennedy back at the keystone is a very reassuring sight.
Here is some of the good and bad from the first month:
Good: Vlad. He's picked up right where he left off last year, hitting 337/380/604 to date, and is three-for-three in stealing bases for good measure. He still looks like a gimp in the outfield most of the time, but it's a worthy price for his all-around play.
Bad: Steve Finley. See what shocking insight I can provide? Finley's big night last night got his line up to 167/248/378. You know what's silly, though? Father Time ranks third on the Angels in RBI with 14, behind Garret (21) and Vlad (20). Lest you think that's because of clutch hitting, take note that he's only hit 182/240/227 with runners in scoring position; he seems to be knocking in runs with outs. So they must be productive outs! But it's a lot easier to make productive outs when the three guys hitting in front of you are already in scoring position. And another thing: add 100 points of batting average to his line and you get 267/348/478, which I think would be rather pleasing. Finley's a career .274 hitter. Unless he's found the cliff this year, he should improve.
Good: Almost all of the bullpen. K-Rod's up to his old tricks, striking out 17 against zero walks in just over 12 innings, and has blown only one save, and it was a tough save, and one where he didn't even make that many mistakes. Scot Shields is on a pace to throw over 90 quality innings once again (or have his arm fall off), and Brendan Donnelly has bounced back from some rocky openings at the beginning of the season. Jake Woods has also looked sharp in his nine innings.
Bad: Esteban Yan sucks. Yeah, his ERA is a tolerable 3.38. But in 13 1/3 innings he's struck out seven while walking nine. Maintaining a good ERA with that kind of rate is not sustainable, but keeping him out of high leverage situations should be fine.
Good: The new Jarrod Washburn. In 2002, 37.5% of Ace's balls in play were groundballs; so far this year 51.6% are. This is no mere fluke of the numbers; it's by design. "I have a real good changeup and sinker, and I'm getting a lot more ground balls than normal," he told the LA Times after his excellent start last night. You remember, I'm sure, how much Jarrod used to rely on his four-seam fastball. It was beautiful to watch when it worked. But in the last couple of years, it wasn't working, he was getting hit and his strikeouts were plummeting. Jarrod has clearly worked on expanding his repertoire, and so far the results are great: strikeouts up, groundouts up, runs allowed down. It's still early in the year, and I don't know that I expect him to maintain a sub-3.00 ERA, especially given that he can still look like a BP pitcher every other start or so, but overall I think this new approach is a good thing, and I'm looking forward to seeing how it plays out. I'm also looking forward to writing a non-run-on sentence.
Bad: The same old John Lackey. Good good good: collapse. Strike strike strike: meltdown. Lackey's Jekyl and Hyde routine has been in full force this season. Now, he always struggles in April, and he's dealt better with on-field adversity in his last couple of starts. But he has to stop taking 100 pitches to get through five innings. He's in a pitcher's park tonight, against a struggling offense; it's time to put a good start together.
Good: Dallas McPherson's defense. Yes, he dropped a popup in Yankee Stadium. But he's looked good on grounders and has demonstrated a strong and accurate arm. His only real goof-up beyond the popup was when he cut in front of Orlando Cabrera in Minnesota and apparently distracted The OC from making the play. But you have to realize that McPherson has likely never played with a shorstop with Cabrera's range before, and he's probably used to having to make that play. Experience will teach him about such details.
Bad: Dallas McPherson's baserunning. Hopefully, Experience will keep Dallas for extra tutoring on this one. He tried to go from second to third on a grounder to The Jeter in New York, and got inexcusably doubled off of first at one point, as well. Of course, such recklessness kind of fits in with this team.
Good: Bartolo Colon is back. Aside from one bad start and one bad game against A-Rod, he's looked like the Colon he was supposed to be when he was signed. Last season, he allowed a batting line of 265/324/472; this year it's down to 211/277/366. As a result, his ERA has dropped by nearly two runs.
Bad: Angel DH's are hitting 234/291/255 this season -- they would be better off hitting against Bartolo Colon.
Worse: Angel third basemen are hitting 174/222/304.
Best: At 15-11, the Angels have a two-game lead in what might well be the major's toughest and tightest division over the course of the season.
So we're just about one month into the season, and, overall things look pretty good. I'm still pleased about the series against the Yankees, disarray or no, and taking that last game in Minnesota was big; losing a series on the road to a strong team is no crisis, and eking out a win against Johan Santana is no small feat. And, despite his poor day at the plate and early jitters afield, seeing Adam Kennedy back at the keystone is a very reassuring sight.
Here is some of the good and bad from the first month:
Good: Vlad. He's picked up right where he left off last year, hitting 337/380/604 to date, and is three-for-three in stealing bases for good measure. He still looks like a gimp in the outfield most of the time, but it's a worthy price for his all-around play.
Bad: Steve Finley. See what shocking insight I can provide? Finley's big night last night got his line up to 167/248/378. You know what's silly, though? Father Time ranks third on the Angels in RBI with 14, behind Garret (21) and Vlad (20). Lest you think that's because of clutch hitting, take note that he's only hit 182/240/227 with runners in scoring position; he seems to be knocking in runs with outs. So they must be productive outs! But it's a lot easier to make productive outs when the three guys hitting in front of you are already in scoring position. And another thing: add 100 points of batting average to his line and you get 267/348/478, which I think would be rather pleasing. Finley's a career .274 hitter. Unless he's found the cliff this year, he should improve.
Good: Almost all of the bullpen. K-Rod's up to his old tricks, striking out 17 against zero walks in just over 12 innings, and has blown only one save, and it was a tough save, and one where he didn't even make that many mistakes. Scot Shields is on a pace to throw over 90 quality innings once again (or have his arm fall off), and Brendan Donnelly has bounced back from some rocky openings at the beginning of the season. Jake Woods has also looked sharp in his nine innings.
Bad: Esteban Yan sucks. Yeah, his ERA is a tolerable 3.38. But in 13 1/3 innings he's struck out seven while walking nine. Maintaining a good ERA with that kind of rate is not sustainable, but keeping him out of high leverage situations should be fine.
Good: The new Jarrod Washburn. In 2002, 37.5% of Ace's balls in play were groundballs; so far this year 51.6% are. This is no mere fluke of the numbers; it's by design. "I have a real good changeup and sinker, and I'm getting a lot more ground balls than normal," he told the LA Times after his excellent start last night. You remember, I'm sure, how much Jarrod used to rely on his four-seam fastball. It was beautiful to watch when it worked. But in the last couple of years, it wasn't working, he was getting hit and his strikeouts were plummeting. Jarrod has clearly worked on expanding his repertoire, and so far the results are great: strikeouts up, groundouts up, runs allowed down. It's still early in the year, and I don't know that I expect him to maintain a sub-3.00 ERA, especially given that he can still look like a BP pitcher every other start or so, but overall I think this new approach is a good thing, and I'm looking forward to seeing how it plays out. I'm also looking forward to writing a non-run-on sentence.
Bad: The same old John Lackey. Good good good: collapse. Strike strike strike: meltdown. Lackey's Jekyl and Hyde routine has been in full force this season. Now, he always struggles in April, and he's dealt better with on-field adversity in his last couple of starts. But he has to stop taking 100 pitches to get through five innings. He's in a pitcher's park tonight, against a struggling offense; it's time to put a good start together.
Good: Dallas McPherson's defense. Yes, he dropped a popup in Yankee Stadium. But he's looked good on grounders and has demonstrated a strong and accurate arm. His only real goof-up beyond the popup was when he cut in front of Orlando Cabrera in Minnesota and apparently distracted The OC from making the play. But you have to realize that McPherson has likely never played with a shorstop with Cabrera's range before, and he's probably used to having to make that play. Experience will teach him about such details.
Bad: Dallas McPherson's baserunning. Hopefully, Experience will keep Dallas for extra tutoring on this one. He tried to go from second to third on a grounder to The Jeter in New York, and got inexcusably doubled off of first at one point, as well. Of course, such recklessness kind of fits in with this team.
Good: Bartolo Colon is back. Aside from one bad start and one bad game against A-Rod, he's looked like the Colon he was supposed to be when he was signed. Last season, he allowed a batting line of 265/324/472; this year it's down to 211/277/366. As a result, his ERA has dropped by nearly two runs.
Bad: Angel DH's are hitting 234/291/255 this season -- they would be better off hitting against Bartolo Colon.
Worse: Angel third basemen are hitting 174/222/304.
Best: At 15-11, the Angels have a two-game lead in what might well be the major's toughest and tightest division over the course of the season.
