Chronicles of the Lads

UH-O(C)
As you certainly recall, Orlando Cabrera, earlier this season, reached base for something like 9300 straight games, causing Mike Scioscia to move him into the third spot of the order and get this mighty hitter more at-bats.

Breaking down The OC this year:

When?            AB   H   2B   3B   HR   BB   SO   AVG  OBP  SLG
Before streak    75  21    5    0    3    3    6   280  304  467
During streak   251  76   18    1    3   27   19   303  372  418 
After streak    113  28    7    0    2    9   15   248  299  363

That performance during the streak was, of course, very nice. But since then, Lando Cabrissian has been returning to Earth, and with a vengeance.

The last day of the streak, Cabrera was hitting 298/357/429; his line now stands at 285/342/412. That's still an above-average performance, overall, which what happens you hit very well for half a season. But the fact remains that that performance, no matter how much it helped as at the time, doesn't reflect The OC's true performance level.

Behold Cabrera's offensive performance as measured by Clay Davenport at BPro. He has a .265 EqA this year -- .260 is average, so Cabrera is just above average. This would be his second-best offensive campaign ever.

Now, he might turn things around and get hot again, youneverknow. But the odds are against it.

Meanwhile, while The OC bats third and has been eating up outs for a month, Senor Juan Rivera bides his time in the fifth and sixth spots of the order, hitting 301/350/561 (a very good -- and tied for the team lead -- EqA of .296). Now, there's a chance Rivera is a bit over his head, as well, but this is a guy that's always had potential and has been searching for playing time, plus what excuse is there to bat The OC third against righties with Rivera in the six-spot?

vs. RHP, 2003-2006
Batter     AB   AVG  OBP  SLG
Cabrera   1604  274  317  409
Rivera     781  292  344  489

Now, I'm not adjusting for the ballparks there, but Cabrera wo uld have to be hitting in Chavez Ravine in 1968 and Juan Rivera in Mile High in 1993 to make those lines equivalent, don'tcha think? (WARNING: Context comparison pulled from my bum, but still seems fundamentally sound.)

Now, lineup effects can be pretty small, so I don't want to overstate this (the difference between plate appearances you'd expect from your three-hitter and your six-hitter would be 27 plate appearances a season; over the 40 or so games we might expect to play against right-handed pitchers the rest of the way, that only comes out to six or seven PA). But it would be nice if someone at the helm were paying a little bit of attention. Rivera is hitting as well as Vlad so far this year, and while that's unlikely to continue, this is a guy that needs to be a key part of the lineup, not protection for a geriatric left fielder.