<$BlogRSDURL$>

Thursday, August 10, 2006

UH-O(C)
As you certainly recall, Orlando Cabrera, earlier this season, reached base for something like 9300 straight games, causing Mike Scioscia to move him into the third spot of the order and get this mighty hitter more at-bats.

Breaking down The OC this year:
When?            AB   H   2B   3B   HR   BB   SO   AVG  OBP  SLG
Before streak 75 21 5 0 3 3 6 280 304 467
During streak 251 76 18 1 3 27 19 303 372 418
After streak 113 28 7 0 2 9 15 248 299 363
That performance during the streak was, of course, very nice. But since then, Lando Cabrissian has been returning to Earth, and with a vengeance.

The last day of the streak, Cabrera was hitting 298/357/429; his line now stands at 285/342/412. That's still an above-average performance, overall, which what happens you hit very well for half a season. But the fact remains that that performance, no matter how much it helped as at the time, doesn't reflect The OC's true performance level.

Behold Cabrera's offensive performance as measured by Clay Davenport at BPro. He has a .265 EqA this year -- .260 is average, so Cabrera is just above average. This would be his second-best offensive campaign ever.

Now, he might turn things around and get hot again, youneverknow. But the odds are against it.

Meanwhile, while The OC bats third and has been eating up outs for a month, Senor Juan Rivera bides his time in the fifth and sixth spots of the order, hitting 301/350/561 (a very good -- and tied for the team lead -- EqA of .296). Now, there's a chance Rivera is a bit over his head, as well, but this is a guy that's always had potential and has been searching for playing time, plus what excuse is there to bat The OC third against righties with Rivera in the six-spot?
vs. RHP, 2003-2006
Batter AB AVG OBP SLG
Cabrera 1604 274 317 409
Rivera 781 292 344 489
Now, I'm not adjusting for the ballparks there, but Cabrera wo uld have to be hitting in Chavez Ravine in 1968 and Juan Rivera in Mile High in 1993 to make those lines equivalent, don'tcha think? (WARNING: Context comparison pulled from my bum, but still seems fundamentally sound.)

Now, lineup effects can be pretty small, so I don't want to overstate this (the difference between plate appearances you'd expect from your three-hitter and your six-hitter would be 27 plate appearances a season; over the 40 or so games we might expect to play against right-handed pitchers the rest of the way, that only comes out to six or seven PA). But it would be nice if someone at the helm were paying a little bit of attention. Rivera is hitting as well as Vlad so far this year, and while that's unlikely to continue, this is a guy that needs to be a key part of the lineup, not protection for a geriatric left fielder.

Comments:
He also may just be fatigued.... I can't remember the last game he sat.
 
Just checked.... 111 starts in 115 games this season. pretty high for a guy who isn't s spring chicken anymore.
 
Interestingly, putting Cabrera in the third spot makes perfect sense if you believe in Cyril Morong's work. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the third is actually relatively unimportant. Rivera is more valuable in the fifth spot.
Links:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/2/12/133645/296
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/2/25/21329/9401
 
The writers of Inside the Book said that your three best hitters should bat first, second, and fourth. Third and fifth were for your next-best hitters.

I can live with Rivera batting fifth behind Vlad, despite the fact that DPs will likely go up. But batting him sixth against RHP seems a bit silly.
 
視訊做愛視訊美女無碼A片情色影劇aa免費看貓咪論壇彩虹性愛巴士金瓶梅影片交流yam視訊交友xxx383美女寫真kyo成人動漫tt1069同志交友網ut同志交友網微風成人論壇6k聊天室日本 avdvd 介紹免費觀賞UT視訊美女交友自拍密錄館sex888情人輔助品哈啦聊天室豆豆出租名模情人視訊視訊交友網視訊交友90739影片 圖片av168成人日本A片免費下載 金瓶梅影片交流免費A片下載85cc免費影城85cc日本a片情色a片無碼女優 免費色情電影同志聊天室38ga成人無碼a片小魔女免費影片玩美女人影音秀台灣18成人網18禁成人網聊天室ut歐美嘟嘟情人色網影片18禁地少女遊戲a383禁地論壇成人影城18禁av影片無碼線上LIVE免費成人影片sex女優松島楓免費影片咆哮小老鼠論壇色咪咪情色網 視訊熱舞秀ut台中聊天室貓貓論壇豆豆情色風暴視訊xxx383美女寫真? 線上漫畫免費線上a片無碼dvdxvediox日本美女寫真集免費成人電影小魔女自拍天堂av1688影音娛樂網0204movie免費影片咆哮小老鼠論壇85cc免費影城85ccfoxy免費音樂下載免費視訊免費影片成人影城免費a網 免費視訊辣妹彩虹頻道免費短片av1688天使娛樂網辣妹妹影音視訊聊天室視訊網愛聊天室後宮電影電影院蜜雪兒免費小說洪爺情色論壇sexy girl video movie視訊交友90739無碼dvd維納斯成人用品辣妹貼圖a片天堂月光論壇sexy girls get fucked中國性愛城sex520-卡通影片383movie成人影城ut正妹 聊天室倉井空免費a影片伊莉論壇tw 18 net18禁成人網免費性愛影片影音視訊聊天室av168成人視訊交友視訊美女視訊交友
 
Post a Comment

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?