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Tuesday, June 26, 2007

WATCH LIST UPDATE 

It's somehow been over a month since I last did this.

The BB-Ref organizational stats are linked in the POSITION and PITCHER headers.

POSITION PLAYERS

Michael Collins, 1B, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now 229 44 12 1 2 5 45 4 2 192 241 279
5/21 127 17 7 0 1 2 25 0 1 136 194 216
5/1 75 12 2 0 1 2 16 0 1 160 203 227
The saving grace here for Collins is that he's only 22; the average Texas League batter is over 24 years old. He has managed to hit .265 for a month, so I guess if he can stay over the Mendoza Line by the next time I do this, I'll keep him on here.


Hank Conger, C, A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now 213 60 16 0 8 16 41 7 3 282 336 469
5/21 123 32 6 0 6 8 16 6 0 260 311 455
5/1 68 18 2 0 3 4 8 4 0 265 306 426
Ah, now this is the business. Conger has upped both his average and power, and only his plate discipline is lagging behind (in terms of his offensive game). Hank is young for the league, and the league is hitting 254/320/370. Cedar Rapids has played as a slight hitters' park in the past, dunno if that's still true, but at any rate, Conger is outperforming older competition at his same level.


Terry Evans, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now 260 86 23 3 11 11 60 13 6 331 358 569
5/21 156 50 13 3 6 9 42 11 4 321 355 558
He sure seems like a good kid, doesn't he? Still, he'll need to control the strike zone better.


Nick Gorneault, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now 276 60 12 0 9 35 63 11 3 217 310 359
5/21 151 36 10 0 3 18 34 8 2 238 327 364
5/1 81 15 4 0 3 9 17 5 2 185 283 346
Nick has come around a bit in the power department since we last checked in, but the average has taken a nosedive.

This is a guy who I hope gets a September call-up. He's been at AAA forever, it seems, and has put up some good years there. This ain't one of 'em, but might as well let him get his name in the encyclopedia and ship him off to the NL Central.


Jeff Mathis, C, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now 234 56 13 1 5 17 42 3 1 239 294 368
5/21 135 35 9 0 2 8 25 2 0 259 301 370
5/1 81 24 6 0 2 5 13 2 0 296 333 444
We've possibly passed up the question of whether or not Mathis will ever have anything to offer at the major league level, and now must face the likelihood that he has just about no trade value left, either. For awhile I thought he could still develop into at least a solid major league regular, but he's not doing anything at AAA to make that seem possible. The shocking this is that he still has time -- he's only 24, and younger than the average PCLer, and catchers often develop a bit later with the bat than other position players. But with Mike Napoli establishing himself with the big club, it looks like the best Mathis can hope for is a back-up job in Los Angeles of Anaheim


(I had Kendry here but took him off as he's in the majors now.)


Sean Rodriguez, SS, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now 278 71 17 1 10 28 76 9 4 255 350 432
5/23 143 36 9 0 6 19 35 6 3 252 374 441
5/1 81 25 6 0 4 12 21 3 3 309 423 531
After a hot start, Sraud's season has pretty much stagnated. The plate discipline that he exhibited at the lowest levels (and that vanished for much of his Cal League season) has gone AWOL over the last month, but he hasn't upped power or base-hit ability to counterbalance it.

Like a lot of our top guys, Rodriguez (at 22) is young for his league; the only position player of a similar age at Arkansas is Michael Collins, and you can see how much better Sean is doing than he.


Mark Trumbo, 1B, A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now 242 68 16 1 7 16 53 3 4 281 327 442
5/23 117 27 6 0 3 5 30 1 2 231 266 359
5/1 49 10 1 0 1 2 16 0 2 204 245 286
What's this? What's this? No sooner do I ponder whether or not Trumbo may be due for a return to the mound than does he go on an epic tear. That's a 328/382/520 line since I last did this, if anyone's counting, and by Trumbo's standards 11 walks against 23 strikeouts is miraculous. This is exciting to see, but recall that Trumbo did have a solid July last season (286/423/390), so let's see him sustain it for another month before we jump too high.


Brandon Wood, SS, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now 254 68 18 1 13 34 69 8 1 268 355 500
5/23 131 31 8 0 5 18 38 3 0 237 331 412
5/1 84 22 6 0 3 11 28 2 0 262 351 440
Looks like someone's finally getting into it; Wood has a .593 slugging percentage over the last month or so of play, and is "only" striking out a quarter of the time (he was closer to 30% last season).

Also worth noting is this observation by Rally Monkey that it's possible Salt Lake is playing as more of a pitchers' park this year than at any time in the past. This is something to bear in mind and keep our eye on.


Watch Out:
Who       Lvl  AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Bourjos A 91 25 3 2 1 9 22 12 3 275 346 385
ClyFuller Azl 11 1 0 0 0 1 4 1 1 091 267 091
Mount A 188 52 4 2 2 19 42 8 1 277 343 351
Ortiz Azl 10 7 3 0 0 1 1 1 1 700 727 1000
Peel AA 263 69 17 2 7 5 35 2 0 262 291 422
Pettit A 228 79 24 1 9 23 41 17 4 346 429 579
Pettit A+ 22 2 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 091 130 091
Phillips A 225 52 7 2 5 5 85 18 2 231 261 347
Rivera has not played
Sandoval AA 258 76 18 1 6 47 46 13 7 295 403 442
Statia A+ 302 81 17 3 1 26 42 17 3 268 330 354
Sweeney A 243 64 14 1 9 18 43 1 5 263 319 440
Peter Bourjos has been injured and hasn't played. Clay Fuller's season has just begun. Ryan Mount has been on fire in June, hitting 429/484/536 -- but in only 28 AB. Can Norberto Ortiz improve on his first ten AB in Arizona? Aaron Peel is another guy who's enjoyed June: 322/352/506. Christopher Pettit is a doubles machine (he leads the organization in that category), and actually improved all three of his big rate stats over the last month at Cedar Rapids. As you can see, he's now up in the Cal League, where he belongs. A slow start in his first week there, but far too early to mention. Hopefully he'll make the necessary adjustments. That's not a typo in P.J. Phillips' strikeout column; he's whiffed in over a third of his AB this month. Luis Rivera has yet to play. Freddy Sandoval has earned a spot in the Futures Game; his average is sliding down, but he's maintaining great control of the zone, and has actually bumped his power up a bit Hainley Statia is struggling to get things going, and has really slumped this month in everything except batting average (291/322/384). Third baseman Matthew Sweeney is in skidsville in terms of average and walks, but has amped back up the power this month; hopefully the rest of his offensive game isn't far behind.


PITCHERS

Nick Adenhart, RHSP, AA Arkansas
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA  
Now 6 2 0 14 14 83.7 87 4 61 37 3.46
5/23 3 2 0 8 8 47.3 43 0 35 21 2.68
5/1 3 1 0 5 5 33.7 24 0 27 10 0.80
Nick Adenhart put up a couple bad starts right after I last did this, but has started to get it together once again. He's on the DL right now with shoulder soreness; hopefully that won't be a problem. What has been a problem is Adenhart's control -- he's just walking too many guys, though his last 40ish innings were better than his previous 15 in that regard. He's also started to allow home runs.

Still, Adenhart is very young for the league, and has an ERA much better than league average (4.27) despite pitching in a tough park for moundsmen. His strikeout-per-inning and strikeout-to-walk ratios are lower than the league average, but given his youth, I am not concerned as of now.


Jose Arredondo, RHSP, AA Arkansas
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 0 0 2 4 0 3.7 7 0 5 4 18.90 A+
Now 0 1 10 23 0 25.0 16 2 28 12 2.52 AA
5/23 0 1 6 16 0 19.0 12 2 22 10 3.32
5/1 0 1 2 8 0 11.0 8 1 14 5 1.64
Demoted for a temper tantrum, Arredondo probably should get it together. That said, he was doing pretty well at AA -- walking a few more guys than you'd like, but whiffing enough to make up for it. I assume he'll be back.


Gustavo Espinoza, LHSP
Placeholder.


Stephen Marek, RHSP, A Rancho Cucamonga
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 5 4 0 13 13 69.7 64 5 56 30 4.02
5/23 3 2 0 7 7 38.7 34 2 23 15 3.52
5/1 1 0 0 3 3 15.0 12 1 7 6 2.40
The ERA is up (still better than the Cal League's 4.70, and Rancho is good to hitters), but the peripherals have improved. Marek's strikeouts and K:BB are still a bit worse than the league's, but he's not far from making that false.


Tommy Mendoza, RHSP
Has not played.


NEW ADDITION!
Darren O'Day, RHRP, AA Arkansas and A+ Rancho Cucamonga

When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 0 1 0 2 0 2.0 3 0 0 1 4.50
Now 4 0 0 24 0 24.0 10 1 26 6 0.75 A+ Final
I was going to put him on my Watch List first, but Rob beat me to it!

O'Day, a sidearmer/submariner with a backup plan to go to med school, is another Tom Kotchman draftee. Out of the University of Florida, O'Day was a bit old for the California League, and proved it by dominating everyone. He's only had two outings for Arkansas, one in which he gave no runs, one in which he gave up one. Highly intriguing across the board, though we've seen other relief prospects (Von Stertzbach, Bob Zimmerman) fade out at the higher levels. At the very least, maybe this guy could be a Chad Bradford ROOGY type.


Sean O'Sullivan, RHSP, A Cedar Rapids
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 4 5 0 12 12 70.3 76 3 53 19 2.96
5/23 2 3 0 8 8 48.0 56 2 36 13 3.00
5/1 1 2 0 4 4 23.0 26 2 13 6 3.52
O'Sullivan is settling in nicely. Again, not many strikeouts, but reasonable control, and he keeps the ball in the park.


Steve Shell, RHSP/RP, AAA Salt Lake
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 4 1 0 14 3 31.0 39 7 23 11 4.94
5/23 1 0 0 5 1 12.0 18 3 4 2 3.75
5/1 0 0 0 2 1 7.0 9 1 3 1 1.29
The silliness of having this kid in AA appears a thing of the past. Just let him pitch and see what happens. He's 24. What's the worst that happens, he loses some games and become a reliever later?


Rich Thompson, RHRP, AA Arkansas
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 1 3 0 19 3 44.3 32 5 46 12 2.25
As you can see, I'm overdue on including the Aussie.


Watch Out:
Who       Lvl  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Bell A 2 2 0 9 9 44.7 58 0 33 4 4.26
Bulger AAA 3 1 0 27 0 29.7 29 3 48 17 4.60
Green AA 5 6 0 15 15 94.0 93 10 60 14 4.40
Madrigal A 3 3 2 29 0 32.7 31 3 35 17 3.34
Rodriguez AA 0 5 0 24 0 36.3 41 3 21 21 5.50
Walden R 0 0 0 1 1 3.0 1 0 5 2 0.00
Young R 0 0 0 1 1 5.0 5 1 5 1 1.80
Trevor Bell isn't strikeout out a lot of guys, but that control is phenomenal. Jason Bulger has been giving up some runs. Nick Green's ERA has been going the right way for two months, despite a few too many HR; the low walk total will help with that. Warner Madrigal has had some control problems of late, but he's very inexperienced from the mound. Rafael Rodriguez hasn't had any success in two months. We just signed Jordan Walden. Young Il-Jung is our Korean prep superstar, and had a good pro debut.

A few random notes ... I'm waiting for Brok Butcher to up his K's before I put him on these lists ... Marcus Gwyn isn't really a prospect at age 29, but he's the closer at AAA and is doing a fine job, and if there are any more injuries in our bullpen, he could come up and do a Joel Peralta for a week or two ... we drafted Milan Dinga out of West Point, he at Orem and off to a good first few innings ...

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Comments:
Nick Adenhart doesn't pitch in a tough park; the fact is, we simply don't have enough data to know one way or another. In fact, the early data seems to be pointing to a slight pitcher's park:

HR: .7000
3B: 1.0000
2B: .7826
1B: 1.135

The numbers were down across the board earlier for the Travs, but that may be small sample sizes. So may this.
 
BTW, Salt Lake is NOT playing as a pitcher's park this year, except for homers (a lot, surprisingly), and doubles (a little bit):

HR: .8286
3B: 2.2857
2B: .9512
1B: 1.1802
 
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