Tuesday, September 25, 2007
WATCH LIST SUMMARY
Here is the last update.
The BB-Ref organizational stats are linked in the POSITION and PITCHER headers.
Thanks to these park factors provided by Dan Szymborski, I've included season-ending OPS+ and park-adjusted batting runs (a linear weights determination of how many runs each batter created above average) for each player. I also did ERA+ and pitching runs (how many earned runs each pitcher prevented) for the pitchers.
POSITION PLAYERS
Michael Collins, 1B, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
Hank Conger, C, A Cedar Rapids, BB/TR
Terry Evans, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
Nick Gorneault, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
Christopher Pettit, LF, A+ Rancho Cucamonga and A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
Sean Rodriguez, SS, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
Mark Trumbo, 1B, A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
Brandon Wood, SS, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
Watch Out:
PITCHERS
Nick Adenhart, RHSP, AA Arkansas
Jose Arredondo, RHSP, AAA Salt Lake, AA Arkansas, and A+ Rancho Cucamonga
Gustavo Espinoza, LHRP, Arizona League
Stephen Marek, RHSP, A Rancho Cucamonga
Tommy Mendoza, A Cedar Rapids, RHSP
Darren O'Day, RHRP, AA Arkansas and A+ Rancho Cucamonga
Sean O'Sullivan, RHSP, A Cedar Rapids
Steve Shell, RHSP/RP, AAA Salt Lake
Rich Thompson, RHRP, AAA Salt Lake and AA Arkansas
Watch Out:
A few random notes ... aside from Anthony Ortega, one guy who really jumped at me was Aaron Cook. He was solid (12 K to 4 BB, 4.15 ERA) in 13 innings in the Cal League after striking out 20 to only 1 walk (and a 0.81) ERA in just over 30 innings at Cedar Rapids. He's apparently another submariner, so that could be interesting ... Miguel Gonzalez also got good results at AA without great peripherals ... Robert Fish will definitely be on this list next year, as he performed very well (3.28 ERA, 77:31 SO:BB in 71.67 IP) for Tom Kotchman at Orem ... we'll also watch out for lefty reliever Douglas Brandt, who performed well at different levels ...
... 1B Christopher Garcia, 19 years old, played in only 20 games in the Arizona League, but managed 21 walks to 17 strikeouts and put up a 333/480/474 line. He's another Tom Kotchman Florida find; he played with Orem a bit, too, though not with as much success (10 BB to 21 K in 23 games) ... the top 10 Angel minor leaguers by batting runs and pitching runs, combined at all levels:
***
(Technical note on the offensive linear weights [feel free to skip]: what I did was apply the factors to each element, not apply a single run factor at the end of the process; there are no factors for triples, but that shouldn't be a big deal. Meaning, if a park inflates HR by 5% but deflates run-scoring as a whole by 2%, I adjusted the HR first and then added up the batting runs, instead of determining the total runs and using the run-scoring factor on that. As we're talking about minor leaguers, I thought it would be more instructive to do it that way, even though there's very little difference once it's all said and done.)
The BB-Ref organizational stats are linked in the POSITION and PITCHER headers.
Thanks to these park factors provided by Dan Szymborski, I've included season-ending OPS+ and park-adjusted batting runs (a linear weights determination of how many runs each batter created above average) for each player. I also did ERA+ and pitching runs (how many earned runs each pitcher prevented) for the pitchers.
POSITION PLAYERS
Michael Collins, 1B, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BRCollins had a relatively good August, but obviously didn't do anything to put himself into the organization's first base picture.
Now 429 104 18 3 5 12 70 5 4 242 286 333 70 -20
8/24 394 98 17 3 5 11 65 5 4 249 292 345
7/24 296 66 14 1 3 8 52 5 4 223 269 307
6/26 229 44 12 1 2 5 45 4 2 192 241 279
5/21 127 17 7 0 1 2 25 0 1 136 194 216
5/1 75 12 2 0 1 2 16 0 1 160 203 227
Hank Conger, C, A Cedar Rapids, BB/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BRHank had some injury troubles, but clearly had no trouble hitting when healthy and in the lineup. The only better hitter we had at Cedar Rapids, both in terms of OPS+ and BR, was Christopher Pettit, whom we'll see below.
Now 290 84 20 0 11 21 48 9 4 290 336 472 134 +12
8/24 262 73 17 0 9 19 45 9 4 279 329 447
7/24 213 60 16 0 8 16 41 7 3 282 336 469
6/26 213 60 16 0 8 16 41 7 3 282 336 469
5/21 123 32 6 0 6 8 16 6 0 260 311 455
5/1 68 18 2 0 3 4 8 4 0 265 306 426
Terry Evans, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BRTerry Evans ended up being a solid producer for AAA, but at age 25, didn't really do much of anything to make it look like he's going to make us regret the Gary Matthews Jr. signing. Could he even be a Juan Rivera fourth outfielder type? He has a good glove, and speed, but he'll need to get that strike zone under control to be that guy. The defense and speed do put him ahead of this guy at the same age, though:
Now 475 150 40 4 15 26 119 24 9 316 352 512 112 +10
8/24 439 138 37 4 14 21 110 22 9 314 347 513
7/24 341 106 28 3 13 12 87 15 6 311 334 525
6/26 260 86 23 3 11 11 60 13 6 331 358 569
5/21 156 50 13 3 6 9 42 11 4 321 355 558
Nick Gorneault, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BRNick finished strong over the past few months but, as you see, didn't even manage to be an above-average performer at his level. I do think he's better than this, but I don't think there's any room for him in this organization from here on out.
Now 471 123 24 1 19 58 108 17 8 261 346 437 95 - 3
8/24 433 107 20 1 16 56 103 16 6 247 337 409
7/24 341 80 17 0 12 41 83 12 4 235 322 390
6/26 276 60 12 0 9 35 63 11 3 217 310 359
5/21 151 36 10 0 3 18 34 8 2 238 327 364
5/1 81 15 4 0 3 9 17 5 2 185 283 346
Christopher Pettit, LF, A+ Rancho Cucamonga and A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BRLate-season slump accounted for, I think Pettit was definitely our system's Position Player of the Year. He led both of his minor league teams in OPS+ and BR, stole bases, showed versatility by getting a lot of time in center in addition to left, and the only guy in the organization with more doubles is Vladimir Guerrero. A very nice first full season for the local product.
Now 265 82 20 2 9 36 48 13 3 309 395 502 133 +15
Now 235 76 18 1 9 29 40 12 2 323 403 523
7/24 124 44 8 1 8 16 23 9 2 355 433 629
6/26 22 2 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 091 130 091
228 79 24 1 9 23 41 17 4 346 429 579 192 +30 Cedar Rapids
Sean Rodriguez, SS, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BRI've been a Sean Rodriguez supporter for awhile, mostly because any Angel prospect who controls the strike zone at even the lowest levels, and shows pop, is pretty rare. Rodriguez did hold his own at AA, but the Travelers saw better offensive seasons from third baseman Freddy Sandoval (see below) and second-sacker Adam Morrissey. Of course, S-Rod is two years younger than the former and four years younger the latter, and at 22 years of age is young for his competition. The new Arkansas park helped pitchers and killed home runs, so his raw stats are a bit better than they look, but Sean didn't really separate himself from the pack this year. That said, he's still quite young, and still a plus hitter at a premium defensive position.
Now 508 129 31 2 17 54 132 15 8 254 345 423 113 + 9
8/24 468 116 30 2 13 48 126 13 7 248 339 404
7/24 371 93 24 1 11 35 99 11 6 251 338 410
6/26 278 71 17 1 10 28 76 9 4 255 350 432
5/23 143 36 9 0 6 19 35 6 3 252 374 441
5/1 81 25 6 0 4 12 21 3 3 309 423 531
Mark Trumbo, 1B, A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BRMark Trumbo improved markedly in his second year in the Midwest League. Yes, he lost some walks, but also cut his strikeouts (one less K, but in over 40 less at-bats) and managed to hit for average (the league as a whole hit .255). The jump to the High-A Cal League next year may be a challenge, but it's also an opportunity for Trumbo to have a breakout year.
Now 471 128 27 2 14 34 98 10 8 272 326 427 118 + 8
Now 443 117 25 2 13 28 84 10 8 270 318 427
7/24 340 97 20 2 9 23 73 10 5 285 334 435
6/26 242 68 16 1 7 16 53 3 4 281 327 442
5/23 117 27 6 0 3 5 30 1 2 231 266 359
5/1 49 10 1 0 1 2 16 0 2 204 245 286
Brandon Wood, SS, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BRI've mentioned this before, but right now Brandon projects as a good-fielding Dean Palmer plus a reasonable number of walks. I guess I can understand an "is that all there is?" reaction to that, but he's by far the youngest regular we had at AAA, and I think another year there will really help him harness his abilities. Right now, he's a .200 hitter in the major leagues, but with the pop of which he's capable and a decent grasp of the strike zone, he can be at least an adequate player by getting that up around .240 or so. I think he can do it, but I don't know that the results will be immediate.
Now 437 119 27 1 23 45 120 10 1 272 338 497 106 + 7
8/24 397 105 21 1 20 43 109 10 1 264 335 474
7/24 313 82 18 1 16 39 80 8 1 262 343 479
6/26 254 68 18 1 13 34 69 8 1 268 355 500
5/23 131 31 8 0 5 18 38 3 0 237 331 412
5/1 84 22 6 0 3 11 28 2 0 262 351 440
Watch Out:
Who Lvl AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BRPeter Bourjos had some injury troubles over the course of the year, but his strikeouts-to-walk ratio needs to improve. Clay Fuller had a fine debute in the Arizona League. Ryan Mount also struggled with injury, and never got in a groove upon coming back. Norberto Ortiz started off hot but was in the same boat, missing time and not being in sync upon his return. Aaron Peel didn't follow up on what could have been a breakthrough 2006. P.J. Phillips strikes out more than you can imagine, but does well when he hits the ball and once he's on base. Can he fix his problems? Luis Rivera never played. Freddy Sandoval was Arkansas' best player. Hainley Statia is another guy who fell off after a good 2006; at the same age, Erick Aybar was more than holding his own with a .303 average at AA. Matthew Sweeney ranked third on his team in OPS+ and led in home runs.
Bourjos A 237 65 9 6 5 20 53 19 9 269 323 404 120 + 6
ClyFuller Azl 183 55 10 4 5 24 52 21 6 301 398 481
Mount A 303 76 11 3 7 29 70 19 6 251 320 376 103 + 2
Ortiz Azl 71 21 4 0 0 6 17 5 2 296 346 352
Peel AA 310 79 20 2 7 6 43 2 0 255 284 400 88 - 6
Phillips A 436 107 11 8 13 15 154 34 4 245 283 397 96 + 0
Rivera has not played
Sandoval AA 472 144 32 6 11 67 78 21 11 305 392 468 137 +26
Statia A+ 549 158 27 7 3 48 79 29 8 288 344 379 86 - 6
Sweeney A 439 114 29 2 18 38 88 7 7 260 324 458 127 +12
PITCHERS
Nick Adenhart, RHSP, AA Arkansas
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERA ERA+ PRThe only worry here is the strikeouts; Adenhart was a bit below average in a park that should have helped him. But with his age and groundball tendencies, I think there's a lot to be excited about. Just stay healthy, kid.
Now 10 8 0 26 26 153.0 158 7 116 65 3.65 112 + 8
8/24 9 7 0 24 24 142.0 143 7 106 61 3.74
7/24 7 3 0 18 18 107.0 112 4 78 43 3.36
6/26 6 2 0 14 14 83.7 87 4 61 37 3.46
5/23 3 2 0 8 8 47.3 43 0 35 21 2.68
5/1 3 1 0 5 5 33.7 24 0 27 10 0.80
Jose Arredondo, RHSP, AAA Salt Lake, AA Arkansas, and A+ Rancho Cucamonga
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERA ERA+ PRA weird season; Arredondo was doing very well at AA, but a tantrum on the mound when being removed from a game led to a demotion to the Cal League, where he stuck up the joint for awhile, then finally came on, and came up to the AAA club to help their postseason run. Physically, I'd imagine he's ready for AAA next year. Emotionally? I have no idea.
Now 0 0 0 2 0 3.0 2 0 1 2 3.00 162 + 1 AAA
Now 2 4 4 28 0 35.0 46 5 34 11 6.43 75 - 6 A+
8/24 2 4 4 27 0 34.0 44 4 33 11 6.09
7/24 0 2 2 15 0 16.0 24 3 13 6 9.56
6/26 0 0 2 4 0 3.7 7 0 5 4 18.90
6/26 0 1 10 23 0 25.0 16 2 28 12 2.52 162 + 5 AA
5/23 0 1 6 16 0 19.0 12 2 22 10 3.32
5/1 0 1 2 8 0 11.0 8 1 14 5 1.64
Gustavo Espinoza, LHRP, Arizona League
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAHey, at least he's pitching again.
Now 0 0 0 2 0 1.3 0 0 3 1 6.75
Stephen Marek, RHSP, A Rancho Cucamonga
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERA ERA+ PRSome up and down in Marek's season. His peripherals aren't dominating, and he was actually outperformed by 21-year-old Anthony Ortega at the same level. Ortega kinda snuck up on me, so I'll take a closer look at him for next year. None of our starters at Rancho this year had knockout peripherals, it seems; Brok Butcher led the team in pitching runs, but managed only 59 K's in 110 innings, and then struggled mightily at the next level.
Now 8 10 0 25 25 134.0 133 17 106 49 4.30 112 + 8
8/24 8 9 0 23 23 121.0 123 15 95 45 4.61
7/24 5 7 0 17 17 89.0 91 10 70 35 4.75
6/26 5 4 0 13 13 69.7 64 5 56 30 4.02
5/23 3 2 0 7 7 38.7 34 2 23 15 3.52
5/1 1 0 0 3 3 15.0 12 1 7 6 2.40
Tommy Mendoza, A Cedar Rapids, RHSP
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERA ERA+ PRMendoza started late due to injury, and never really got his feet under him. This season didn't tell us anything about him. Hopefully he can stay healthy and develop more next year.
Now 2 4 0 12 11 53.7 67 5 38 16 4.89 75 - 8
8/24 2 4 0 10 9 44.0 54 5 30 13 4.30
7/24 0 3 0 4 3 12.3 18 4 11 6 9.00
Darren O'Day, RHRP, AA Arkansas and A+ Rancho Cucamonga
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERA ERA+ PRDarren O'Day was outrageous in the Cal League, but struggled a bit against the higher competition. As a sidearmer, you'd think he'd be harmed more by lefty hitters than righties, but at AA he actually held lefties to a 224/309/245 line while northpaws managed a 276/377/431. Part of that is attributable to his allowing only a .268 batting average on balls in play to LHB, but I really don't know what the hell's going on; I assume it's a small sample size, as his splits at A+ (a 599 OPS against LHB, but 316 from RHB) makes much more sense.
Now 3 4 10 29 0 29.3 27 3 22 14 4.03 101 + 0 AA
8/24 3 3 7 25 0 25.3 24 2 19 11 3.24
7/24 1 2 0 3 0 13.0 11 1 10 7 2.77
6/26 0 1 0 2 0 2.0 3 0 0 1 4.50
6/26 4 0 0 24 0 24.0 10 1 26 6 0.75 642 +11 A+ Final
Sean O'Sullivan, RHSP, A Cedar Rapids
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERA ERA+ PRBy pitching runs, O'Sullivan was our best minor league pitcher in 2007. Only Brok Butcher comes close (+20), though that includes his poor showing at AA. As I mentioned last time, though O'Sullivan's K/9 IP is below his league average (7.11 against 7.66), but he only faces approximately 4.11 guys per inning against the league's 4.33 -- his actual K rate -- per batter faced -- is only approximately 0.5% lower than his league's. Can he keep the hits allowed total low? We'll find out.
Now 10 7 0 25 25 158.3 136 6 125 40 2.22 163 +26
8/24 10 6 0 23 23 144.3 122 6 119 38 2.19
7/24 6 5 0 17 17 102.7 94 3 86 27 2.37
6/26 4 5 0 12 12 70.3 76 3 53 19 2.96
5/23 2 3 0 8 8 48.0 56 2 36 13 3.00
5/1 1 2 0 4 4 23.0 26 2 13 6 3.52
Steve Shell, RHSP/RP, AAA Salt Lake
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERA ERA+ PRA good example of the kind of environment our AAA team has, Shell's 4.76 ERA is better than the league average, once you adjust for park. He also had 13 good innings at AA, but he really seems to have fallen off the radar, and barely-above-average performance, mostly from the pen, isn't going to set off anyone's alarms.
Now 7 3 0 31 7 70.3 83 15 52 19 4.76 104 + 2
8/24 6 3 0 29 6 61.3 76 15 44 18 5.46
7/24 4 3 0 21 4 45.0 56 12 35 14 5.60
6/26 4 1 0 14 3 31.0 39 7 23 11 4.94
5/23 1 0 0 5 1 12.0 18 3 4 2 3.75
5/1 0 0 0 2 1 7.0 9 1 3 1 1.29
Rich Thompson, RHRP, AAA Salt Lake and AA Arkansas
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERA ERA+ PRRich Thompson led both his AA and AAA teams in pitching runs. He hasn't been as keen in his irregular appearances in the majors, so my dreams of a K-Rodesque rise have been dashed. Still have you noticed that he gives up runs when stretched? In his second outing, he threw two-thirds of an inning, then struggled the next inning. In his fifth, he pitched an inning and a third before giving up a run. He's pretty much a one-inning guy right now, it looks like.
Now 3 0 1 16 0 24.7 17 2 32 6 2.22 230 + 7 AAA
8/24 3 0 1 14 0 22.3 15 2 29 3 2.05
7/24 1 0 0 4 0 7.7 6 0 12 2 1.23
7/24 2 3 0 21 3 49.3 34 5 50 14 2.02 203 +12 AA
6/26 1 3 0 19 3 44.3 32 5 46 12 2.25
Watch Out:
Who Lvl W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERA ERA+ PRTrevor Bell finished off the season with two terrific starts; somewhat in opposition to Sean O'Sullivan, the question with Bell next year is whether he will continue to give up so many hits despite good numbers in every other respect. Like Rich Thompson, Jason Bulger has earned a real look for next year's pen. Nick Green was terrific in the late summer, but, like so many of these guys, isn't missing many bats. Warner Madrigal had an exceptional year as Cedar Rapids' closer. Rafael Rodriguez finally got things together, somewhat, near the end of the season. Jordan Walden finished very strong, not walking anyone in his last 15 innings, and making an overall great debut. Young Il-Jung has been shut down due to injury.
Bell A 8 4 0 21 21 115.3 136 8 90 23 4.15 87 - 7
Bulger AAA 5 2 10 49 0 52.7 51 4 81 24 3.78 133 + 7
Green AA 10 8 0 28 28 178.3 164 17 107 32 3.69 111 + 8
Madrigal A 5 4 20 54 0 61.0 44 3 75 23 2.07 176 +11
Rodriguez AA 0 6 0 46 1 71.3 79 6 42 30 4.18 98 - 1
Walden R 1 1 0 15 15 64.3 49 3 63 17 3.75
Young R 0 1 0 3 3 9.0 10 1 9 6 9.00
A few random notes ... aside from Anthony Ortega, one guy who really jumped at me was Aaron Cook. He was solid (12 K to 4 BB, 4.15 ERA) in 13 innings in the Cal League after striking out 20 to only 1 walk (and a 0.81) ERA in just over 30 innings at Cedar Rapids. He's apparently another submariner, so that could be interesting ... Miguel Gonzalez also got good results at AA without great peripherals ... Robert Fish will definitely be on this list next year, as he performed very well (3.28 ERA, 77:31 SO:BB in 71.67 IP) for Tom Kotchman at Orem ... we'll also watch out for lefty reliever Douglas Brandt, who performed well at different levels ...
... 1B Christopher Garcia, 19 years old, played in only 20 games in the Arizona League, but managed 21 walks to 17 strikeouts and put up a 333/480/474 line. He's another Tom Kotchman Florida find; he played with Orem a bit, too, though not with as much success (10 BB to 21 K in 23 games) ... the top 10 Angel minor leaguers by batting runs and pitching runs, combined at all levels:
Pos Player Level Runs
OF Christopher Pettit A,A+ 37.5
3B Freddy Sandoval AA 26.0
SP Sean O'Sullivan A 25.7
RP Rich Thompson A+,AA,AAA 20.3
SP Brok Butcher A+,AA 20.0
OF Nathan Haynes AAA 16.1
SP Anthony Ortega A+ 14.3
RP Douglas Brandt A,A+,AAA 13.5
2B Adam Morrissey AA 12.1
3B Matthew Sweeney A 12.3
***
(Technical note on the offensive linear weights [feel free to skip]: what I did was apply the factors to each element, not apply a single run factor at the end of the process; there are no factors for triples, but that shouldn't be a big deal. Meaning, if a park inflates HR by 5% but deflates run-scoring as a whole by 2%, I adjusted the HR first and then added up the batting runs, instead of determining the total runs and using the run-scoring factor on that. As we're talking about minor leaguers, I thought it would be more instructive to do it that way, even though there's very little difference once it's all said and done.)
Labels: minor leagues, prospects, Watch List
Monday, August 27, 2007
EDDIE BANE INTERVIEW
I've been horribly remiss in not posting links to this in the past, but Angels Win has a monthly interview with Eddie Bane. Nothing terribly revelatory in this month's edition -- no Matt Harvey questions, for instance -- and Bane is certainly representing the organization, so you never read him saying stuff like "This guy sucks, we really screwed the pooch drafting him." But he talks about various things the organization like about different prospects, including lower-level guys who are somewhat off the radar and often spoken of. Past editions are all there below the most recent one, so catch up.
Labels: Eddie Bane, prospects
Tuesday, July 03, 2007
FURTHER EVENTS
There's been some roster busy-ness the last few days, so let's just jump in:
- Mike Napoli injured, Jeff Mathis called up.
Napoli could, reportedly, be out for as many as six weeks, which is not good. Napoli is having a solid season: I have him as around three runs above an average hitter offensively, and his OPS+ of 111 ranks 7th in the majors out of the 29 catchers who have played at least 50 games. Jose Molina is no kind of substitute for that offensive production; he's been hitting horribly so far this year, nearly 8 runs below average with only 102 plate appearances. He's better than this, but he's still not an offensive force.
Jeff Mathis has been performing poorly at AAA; I don't really know who's going to get more playing time to start with. Either way, we basically have to just hope that one of the two guys catches fire, or that Garret Anderson will be healthy enough to pick up some of the slack.
- Hector Carrasco is DFA'd, Chris Resop called up in his stead.
I think Carrasco is better than this, but, then again, he is 37 years old, so it's not like a sudden bottoming-out is a big shock. Resop is an interesting choice to replace him; his 4.60 ERA at Salt Lake is better than the 4.74 league average, and Salt Lake continues to be a hitters' park. Resop also has a good strikeout and strikeout-to-walk ratios. Jason Bulger is having a better season, but is not currently on the 40-man roster. Marcus Gwyn is in the same boat.
Anyway, there's no real way Resop's going to be worse than Carrasco has been. Hector was fairly effective last year, but Bill Stoneman's record of acquiring relievers (JC Romero, Darren Oliver, Esteban Yan, who sucks) has been a bit shaky the past few seasons. Hopefully the likes of Resop, Bulger (both Stoneman acquisitions), Jose Arredondo, and Darren O'Day will come through and make that moot in the near future.
- Mike Napoli injured, Jeff Mathis called up.
Napoli could, reportedly, be out for as many as six weeks, which is not good. Napoli is having a solid season: I have him as around three runs above an average hitter offensively, and his OPS+ of 111 ranks 7th in the majors out of the 29 catchers who have played at least 50 games. Jose Molina is no kind of substitute for that offensive production; he's been hitting horribly so far this year, nearly 8 runs below average with only 102 plate appearances. He's better than this, but he's still not an offensive force.
Jeff Mathis has been performing poorly at AAA; I don't really know who's going to get more playing time to start with. Either way, we basically have to just hope that one of the two guys catches fire, or that Garret Anderson will be healthy enough to pick up some of the slack.
- Hector Carrasco is DFA'd, Chris Resop called up in his stead.
I think Carrasco is better than this, but, then again, he is 37 years old, so it's not like a sudden bottoming-out is a big shock. Resop is an interesting choice to replace him; his 4.60 ERA at Salt Lake is better than the 4.74 league average, and Salt Lake continues to be a hitters' park. Resop also has a good strikeout and strikeout-to-walk ratios. Jason Bulger is having a better season, but is not currently on the 40-man roster. Marcus Gwyn is in the same boat.
Anyway, there's no real way Resop's going to be worse than Carrasco has been. Hector was fairly effective last year, but Bill Stoneman's record of acquiring relievers (JC Romero, Darren Oliver, Esteban Yan, who sucks) has been a bit shaky the past few seasons. Hopefully the likes of Resop, Bulger (both Stoneman acquisitions), Jose Arredondo, and Darren O'Day will come through and make that moot in the near future.
Labels: Chris Resop, Hector Carrasco, Jason Bulger, Jeff Mathis, Jose Molina, Marcus Gwyn, Mike Napoli, prospects
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
WATCH LIST UPDATE
It's somehow been over a month since I last did this.
The BB-Ref organizational stats are linked in the POSITION and PITCHER headers.
POSITION PLAYERS
Michael Collins, 1B, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
Hank Conger, C, A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
Terry Evans, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
Nick Gorneault, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
This is a guy who I hope gets a September call-up. He's been at AAA forever, it seems, and has put up some good years there. This ain't one of 'em, but might as well let him get his name in the encyclopedia and ship him off to the NL Central.
Jeff Mathis, C, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
(I had Kendry here but took him off as he's in the majors now.)
Sean Rodriguez, SS, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
Like a lot of our top guys, Rodriguez (at 22) is young for his league; the only position player of a similar age at Arkansas is Michael Collins, and you can see how much better Sean is doing than he.
Mark Trumbo, 1B, A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
Brandon Wood, SS, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
Also worth noting is this observation by Rally Monkey that it's possible Salt Lake is playing as more of a pitchers' park this year than at any time in the past. This is something to bear in mind and keep our eye on.
Watch Out:
PITCHERS
Nick Adenhart, RHSP, AA Arkansas
Still, Adenhart is very young for the league, and has an ERA much better than league average (4.27) despite pitching in a tough park for moundsmen. His strikeout-per-inning and strikeout-to-walk ratios are lower than the league average, but given his youth, I am not concerned as of now.
Jose Arredondo, RHSP, AA Arkansas
Gustavo Espinoza, LHSP
Placeholder.
Stephen Marek, RHSP, A Rancho Cucamonga
Tommy Mendoza, RHSP
Has not played.
NEW ADDITION!
Darren O'Day, RHRP, AA Arkansas and A+ Rancho Cucamonga
O'Day, a sidearmer/submariner with a backup plan to go to med school, is another Tom Kotchman draftee. Out of the University of Florida, O'Day was a bit old for the California League, and proved it by dominating everyone. He's only had two outings for Arkansas, one in which he gave no runs, one in which he gave up one. Highly intriguing across the board, though we've seen other relief prospects (Von Stertzbach, Bob Zimmerman) fade out at the higher levels. At the very least, maybe this guy could be a Chad Bradford ROOGY type.
Sean O'Sullivan, RHSP, A Cedar Rapids
Steve Shell, RHSP/RP, AAA Salt Lake
Rich Thompson, RHRP, AA Arkansas
Watch Out:
A few random notes ... I'm waiting for Brok Butcher to up his K's before I put him on these lists ... Marcus Gwyn isn't really a prospect at age 29, but he's the closer at AAA and is doing a fine job, and if there are any more injuries in our bullpen, he could come up and do a Joel Peralta for a week or two ... we drafted Milan Dinga out of West Point, he at Orem and off to a good first few innings ...
The BB-Ref organizational stats are linked in the POSITION and PITCHER headers.
POSITION PLAYERS
Michael Collins, 1B, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+The saving grace here for Collins is that he's only 22; the average Texas League batter is over 24 years old. He has managed to hit .265 for a month, so I guess if he can stay over the Mendoza Line by the next time I do this, I'll keep him on here.
Now 229 44 12 1 2 5 45 4 2 192 241 279
5/21 127 17 7 0 1 2 25 0 1 136 194 216
5/1 75 12 2 0 1 2 16 0 1 160 203 227
Hank Conger, C, A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+Ah, now this is the business. Conger has upped both his average and power, and only his plate discipline is lagging behind (in terms of his offensive game). Hank is young for the league, and the league is hitting 254/320/370. Cedar Rapids has played as a slight hitters' park in the past, dunno if that's still true, but at any rate, Conger is outperforming older competition at his same level.
Now 213 60 16 0 8 16 41 7 3 282 336 469
5/21 123 32 6 0 6 8 16 6 0 260 311 455
5/1 68 18 2 0 3 4 8 4 0 265 306 426
Terry Evans, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+He sure seems like a good kid, doesn't he? Still, he'll need to control the strike zone better.
Now 260 86 23 3 11 11 60 13 6 331 358 569
5/21 156 50 13 3 6 9 42 11 4 321 355 558
Nick Gorneault, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+Nick has come around a bit in the power department since we last checked in, but the average has taken a nosedive.
Now 276 60 12 0 9 35 63 11 3 217 310 359
5/21 151 36 10 0 3 18 34 8 2 238 327 364
5/1 81 15 4 0 3 9 17 5 2 185 283 346
This is a guy who I hope gets a September call-up. He's been at AAA forever, it seems, and has put up some good years there. This ain't one of 'em, but might as well let him get his name in the encyclopedia and ship him off to the NL Central.
Jeff Mathis, C, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+We've possibly passed up the question of whether or not Mathis will ever have anything to offer at the major league level, and now must face the likelihood that he has just about no trade value left, either. For awhile I thought he could still develop into at least a solid major league regular, but he's not doing anything at AAA to make that seem possible. The shocking this is that he still has time -- he's only 24, and younger than the average PCLer, and catchers often develop a bit later with the bat than other position players. But with Mike Napoli establishing himself with the big club, it looks like the best Mathis can hope for is a back-up job in Los Angeles of Anaheim
Now 234 56 13 1 5 17 42 3 1 239 294 368
5/21 135 35 9 0 2 8 25 2 0 259 301 370
5/1 81 24 6 0 2 5 13 2 0 296 333 444
(I had Kendry here but took him off as he's in the majors now.)
Sean Rodriguez, SS, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+After a hot start, Sraud's season has pretty much stagnated. The plate discipline that he exhibited at the lowest levels (and that vanished for much of his Cal League season) has gone AWOL over the last month, but he hasn't upped power or base-hit ability to counterbalance it.
Now 278 71 17 1 10 28 76 9 4 255 350 432
5/23 143 36 9 0 6 19 35 6 3 252 374 441
5/1 81 25 6 0 4 12 21 3 3 309 423 531
Like a lot of our top guys, Rodriguez (at 22) is young for his league; the only position player of a similar age at Arkansas is Michael Collins, and you can see how much better Sean is doing than he.
Mark Trumbo, 1B, A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+What's this? What's this? No sooner do I ponder whether or not Trumbo may be due for a return to the mound than does he go on an epic tear. That's a 328/382/520 line since I last did this, if anyone's counting, and by Trumbo's standards 11 walks against 23 strikeouts is miraculous. This is exciting to see, but recall that Trumbo did have a solid July last season (286/423/390), so let's see him sustain it for another month before we jump too high.
Now 242 68 16 1 7 16 53 3 4 281 327 442
5/23 117 27 6 0 3 5 30 1 2 231 266 359
5/1 49 10 1 0 1 2 16 0 2 204 245 286
Brandon Wood, SS, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+Looks like someone's finally getting into it; Wood has a .593 slugging percentage over the last month or so of play, and is "only" striking out a quarter of the time (he was closer to 30% last season).
Now 254 68 18 1 13 34 69 8 1 268 355 500
5/23 131 31 8 0 5 18 38 3 0 237 331 412
5/1 84 22 6 0 3 11 28 2 0 262 351 440
Also worth noting is this observation by Rally Monkey that it's possible Salt Lake is playing as more of a pitchers' park this year than at any time in the past. This is something to bear in mind and keep our eye on.
Watch Out:
Who Lvl AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+Peter Bourjos has been injured and hasn't played. Clay Fuller's season has just begun. Ryan Mount has been on fire in June, hitting 429/484/536 -- but in only 28 AB. Can Norberto Ortiz improve on his first ten AB in Arizona? Aaron Peel is another guy who's enjoyed June: 322/352/506. Christopher Pettit is a doubles machine (he leads the organization in that category), and actually improved all three of his big rate stats over the last month at Cedar Rapids. As you can see, he's now up in the Cal League, where he belongs. A slow start in his first week there, but far too early to mention. Hopefully he'll make the necessary adjustments. That's not a typo in P.J. Phillips' strikeout column; he's whiffed in over a third of his AB this month. Luis Rivera has yet to play. Freddy Sandoval has earned a spot in the Futures Game; his average is sliding down, but he's maintaining great control of the zone, and has actually bumped his power up a bit Hainley Statia is struggling to get things going, and has really slumped this month in everything except batting average (291/322/384). Third baseman Matthew Sweeney is in skidsville in terms of average and walks, but has amped back up the power this month; hopefully the rest of his offensive game isn't far behind.
Bourjos A 91 25 3 2 1 9 22 12 3 275 346 385
ClyFuller Azl 11 1 0 0 0 1 4 1 1 091 267 091
Mount A 188 52 4 2 2 19 42 8 1 277 343 351
Ortiz Azl 10 7 3 0 0 1 1 1 1 700 727 1000
Peel AA 263 69 17 2 7 5 35 2 0 262 291 422
Pettit A 228 79 24 1 9 23 41 17 4 346 429 579
Pettit A+ 22 2 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 091 130 091
Phillips A 225 52 7 2 5 5 85 18 2 231 261 347
Rivera has not played
Sandoval AA 258 76 18 1 6 47 46 13 7 295 403 442
Statia A+ 302 81 17 3 1 26 42 17 3 268 330 354
Sweeney A 243 64 14 1 9 18 43 1 5 263 319 440
PITCHERS
Nick Adenhart, RHSP, AA Arkansas
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERANick Adenhart put up a couple bad starts right after I last did this, but has started to get it together once again. He's on the DL right now with shoulder soreness; hopefully that won't be a problem. What has been a problem is Adenhart's control -- he's just walking too many guys, though his last 40ish innings were better than his previous 15 in that regard. He's also started to allow home runs.
Now 6 2 0 14 14 83.7 87 4 61 37 3.46
5/23 3 2 0 8 8 47.3 43 0 35 21 2.68
5/1 3 1 0 5 5 33.7 24 0 27 10 0.80
Still, Adenhart is very young for the league, and has an ERA much better than league average (4.27) despite pitching in a tough park for moundsmen. His strikeout-per-inning and strikeout-to-walk ratios are lower than the league average, but given his youth, I am not concerned as of now.
Jose Arredondo, RHSP, AA Arkansas
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERADemoted for a temper tantrum, Arredondo probably should get it together. That said, he was doing pretty well at AA -- walking a few more guys than you'd like, but whiffing enough to make up for it. I assume he'll be back.
Now 0 0 2 4 0 3.7 7 0 5 4 18.90 A+
Now 0 1 10 23 0 25.0 16 2 28 12 2.52 AA
5/23 0 1 6 16 0 19.0 12 2 22 10 3.32
5/1 0 1 2 8 0 11.0 8 1 14 5 1.64
Gustavo Espinoza, LHSP
Placeholder.
Stephen Marek, RHSP, A Rancho Cucamonga
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAThe ERA is up (still better than the Cal League's 4.70, and Rancho is good to hitters), but the peripherals have improved. Marek's strikeouts and K:BB are still a bit worse than the league's, but he's not far from making that false.
Now 5 4 0 13 13 69.7 64 5 56 30 4.02
5/23 3 2 0 7 7 38.7 34 2 23 15 3.52
5/1 1 0 0 3 3 15.0 12 1 7 6 2.40
Tommy Mendoza, RHSP
Has not played.
NEW ADDITION!
Darren O'Day, RHRP, AA Arkansas and A+ Rancho Cucamonga
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAI was going to put him on my Watch List first, but Rob beat me to it!
Now 0 1 0 2 0 2.0 3 0 0 1 4.50
Now 4 0 0 24 0 24.0 10 1 26 6 0.75 A+ Final
O'Day, a sidearmer/submariner with a backup plan to go to med school, is another Tom Kotchman draftee. Out of the University of Florida, O'Day was a bit old for the California League, and proved it by dominating everyone. He's only had two outings for Arkansas, one in which he gave no runs, one in which he gave up one. Highly intriguing across the board, though we've seen other relief prospects (Von Stertzbach, Bob Zimmerman) fade out at the higher levels. At the very least, maybe this guy could be a Chad Bradford ROOGY type.
Sean O'Sullivan, RHSP, A Cedar Rapids
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAO'Sullivan is settling in nicely. Again, not many strikeouts, but reasonable control, and he keeps the ball in the park.
Now 4 5 0 12 12 70.3 76 3 53 19 2.96
5/23 2 3 0 8 8 48.0 56 2 36 13 3.00
5/1 1 2 0 4 4 23.0 26 2 13 6 3.52
Steve Shell, RHSP/RP, AAA Salt Lake
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAThe silliness of having this kid in AA appears a thing of the past. Just let him pitch and see what happens. He's 24. What's the worst that happens, he loses some games and become a reliever later?
Now 4 1 0 14 3 31.0 39 7 23 11 4.94
5/23 1 0 0 5 1 12.0 18 3 4 2 3.75
5/1 0 0 0 2 1 7.0 9 1 3 1 1.29
Rich Thompson, RHRP, AA Arkansas
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAAs you can see, I'm overdue on including the Aussie.
Now 1 3 0 19 3 44.3 32 5 46 12 2.25
Watch Out:
Who Lvl W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERATrevor Bell isn't strikeout out a lot of guys, but that control is phenomenal. Jason Bulger has been giving up some runs. Nick Green's ERA has been going the right way for two months, despite a few too many HR; the low walk total will help with that. Warner Madrigal has had some control problems of late, but he's very inexperienced from the mound. Rafael Rodriguez hasn't had any success in two months. We just signed Jordan Walden. Young Il-Jung is our Korean prep superstar, and had a good pro debut.
Bell A 2 2 0 9 9 44.7 58 0 33 4 4.26
Bulger AAA 3 1 0 27 0 29.7 29 3 48 17 4.60
Green AA 5 6 0 15 15 94.0 93 10 60 14 4.40
Madrigal A 3 3 2 29 0 32.7 31 3 35 17 3.34
Rodriguez AA 0 5 0 24 0 36.3 41 3 21 21 5.50
Walden R 0 0 0 1 1 3.0 1 0 5 2 0.00
Young R 0 0 0 1 1 5.0 5 1 5 1 1.80
A few random notes ... I'm waiting for Brok Butcher to up his K's before I put him on these lists ... Marcus Gwyn isn't really a prospect at age 29, but he's the closer at AAA and is doing a fine job, and if there are any more injuries in our bullpen, he could come up and do a Joel Peralta for a week or two ... we drafted Milan Dinga out of West Point, he at Orem and off to a good first few innings ...
Labels: prospects, Watch List
Tuesday, June 05, 2007
THE DRAFTS OF BILL STONEMAN
I don't know how I've managed to go two weeks without saying anything; I guess that's what happens when the team is playing well and there's nothing to complain about and no problems to diagnose.
But, as this week is the amateur draft, I thought it might be a good time to feature some draft-related material.
This is the first entry, and looks at the first five drafts the Angels made under Bill Stoneman. I didn't want to go past 2004, as it's far too early to say much of anything about the last two drafts. In fact, it's practically impossible to say anything about 2004, either, but it was the first draft with Eddie Bane in the organization and we got at least one major leaguer out of it, so we can take a cursory look.
There are various sources for draft info online, the two best of which (to my knowledge) are at Baseball Reference and The Baseball
Cube.
I'm not really going to evaluate the drafts in a systematic way (the Baseball Cube has a rudimentary draft rating system based on the major league playing time of those drafted, which is a rough starting point I will reference despite its flaws and near uselessness for recent drafts; see it for 2000 here), just take a look at who we drafted, who we could have drafted, and how it all turned out. The list of "could haves" is far from inclusive, as I just went through the first twenty rounds each year and grabbed some recognizable names.
Also, I'm not going to link to every single player I mention, as I usually do, as life is short.
Here we go.
2000
First Round: The Angels had two picks in the round; the 10th and 20th. Stoneman grabbed Joe Torres at 10 and Chris Bootcheck at 20.
Who Else Was Available: Most everyone picked between Torres and Bootcheck has been a disappointment, save one: Chase Utley, who may well be the best overall second baseman in the game right now. The Angels had just installed Adam Kennedy at second, so maybe Utley wasn't as high a priority because of that, but so far he's the pick of the round.
No one outrageously special was taken after Bootcheck; Boof Bonser went one pick later, but he has yet to pan out (though he still could, of course), and Adam Wainwright and Aaron Heilman (who didn't sign with the Twins) came later in the round. Dustin Moseley and Kelly Johnson were two intriguing later picks. The second round saw the Cubs select Bobby Hill (who the Angels had drafted but not signed out of high school) and the Pads take Xavier Nady.
Others Picked of Note: Tommy Murphy got picked in the third round, a pitcher/shortstop at the time. Matt Hensley in the 10th, but the rose so far has been Mike Napoli, somehow only the second- or third-best player taken in the 17th round (Josh Willingham, Rich Harden).
The Angels also grabbed Bobby Jenks in the fifth, and you all know how much good that did us.
Other Available Players of Note: Grady Sizemore (3rd), David DeJesus (4th), Dontrelle Willis (8), Brandon Webb (8), Edwin Encarnacion (9), Brad Hawpe (11), Freddy Sanchez (11), James Shields (16).
Baseball Cube Ranking:: 19th
Summary: Despite finding the gem in Napoli in the middle rounds, this draft would have to be considered a disappointment. The only other player to live up to expectations, to any degree, is Bobby Jenks, who has done it all for the White Sox. The world would be interesting if we had drafted Chase Utley, a local product out of Pasadena and UCLA (imagine Utley at second and Howie at third), and we are just one of 29 teams to have missed out on the likes of Sizemore, Willis, and Webb.
2001
First Round: Once again, the Angels had two picks in the first round, and took Casey Kotchman at 13 and Jeff Mathis at 33.
Who Else Was Available: Gabe Gross went a couple of picks after Casey, as did Jason Bulger. The two most intriguing picks between Kotch and Mathis, though, were Oakland's back-to-back picks of Bobby Crosby and Jeremy Bonderman. The Angels had actually drafted Crosby out of high school, but didn't sign him. Noah Lowry went 30th.
After the Mathis pick, the best pick, and what may end up being the best pick of the first round, was David Wright.
The most notable player picked in between Mathis and the Angel second-round pick is JJ Hardy.
Others Picked of Note: The Angels got Dallas McPherson with that second-round choice, so, his back notwithstanding, they weren't really complaining. Steven Shell and Jake Woods were taken in the third, Nick Gorneault in the 19th, but the only other picks to make the majors (beyond Woods) were Steve Andrade, who did so as a Royal, and Matt Brown, who sipped coffee earlier this year.
Other Available Players of Note: Danny Haren (2), Edwin Jackson (6), Chad Tracy (7), Dan Johnson (7), Kevin Youkilis (8), Dan Uggla (11), Chris Young the Outfielder (16), Jonny Gomes (18), Zach Duke (19).
Baseball Cube Ranking:: 13th
Summary: This is the draft that put the Angels on the prospect map. Kotchman, Mathis, and McPherson toplined prospect lists for the next few years, and were the first three picks taken. Though the idea of having Bobby Crosby or Jeremy Bonderman is intriguing, I can't say the Angels were wrong to stay in the family and grab Casey Kotchman. In retrospect, David Wright would have been a much better pick than Jeff Mathis, but Mathis comes from the Tom Kotchman Florida Pipeline that also brought us Casey, Howie Kendrick, and Scot Shields.
However, this was a top-heavy draft, and it looks like only one guy will pan out. Steve Shell could end up in the bullpen, and maybe Matt Brown will become a new Robb Quinlan down the line, but that's not much booty relative to all the prospects we had lined up from this draft just a couple of years ago. Prospect attrition is harsh, and no matter what the BPro guys tell you, it happens to hitters as well as pitchers. You load up as much as you can and see who survives the gauntlet.
2002
First Round: Joe Saunders with the 12th pick.
Who Else Was Available: The seven players taken right after Saunders: Khalil Greene, Russ Adams, Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, Royce Ring, and James Loney. Jeremy Guthrie, Jeff Francouer, Joe Blanton, Matt Cain, and Mark Teahen all went later in the round.
Others Picked of Note: The Angels got only one other major league player in this draft, but he may turn out to be a doozy: Howie Kendrick in the 10th.
Other Available Players of Note: Elijah Dukes (3), Curtis Granderson (3), Delwyn Young (4), John Maine (6), Scott Olsen (6), Pat Neshek (6), Joel Zumaya (11), Ryan Shealy (11), Brandon McCarthy (17), Russell Martin (17), Kameron Loe (20).
Baseball Cube Ranking:: 20th
Summary: Saunders is a credit to the organization now, but an injury not long after signing delayed his ascent. Scott Kazmir or Cole Hamels would have been very interesting first-round picks, and there was a lot of intruiguing talent taken at the bottom of the round.
Getting Howie was a coup, but the rest of the draft was completely devoid of prospects for the Angels; the only other name that pops out at all is Aaron Peel, who is stagnated at AA.
2003
First Round: Brandon Wood, 23rd.
Who Else Was Available: Chad Billingsley, Daric Barton, Carlos Quentin. Some intriguing names, but none as intriguing as Wood.
Others Picked of Note: Sean Rodriguez in the third, Reggie Willits in the seventh.
Other Available Players of Note: Tom Gorzelanny (2), Andre Ethier (2), Chris Ray (3), Ryan Garko (3), Jonathan Papelbon (4), Kevin Kouzmanoff (6), Anthony Reyes (15), Ian Kinsler (17).
Baseball Cube Ranking:: 25th
Summary: Wood has justified his draft position to this point, even accounting for his early struggles at AAA. Sean Rodriguez and Willits appear to be good picks, but guys like Bob Zimmerman, Von Stertzbach, and Daniel Davidson have washed out a bit. No one else has emerged from the class.
In October, 2003, Eddie Bane took over as scouting director.
2004
First Round: Jered Weaver's price dropped him to 12th, where the Angels caught him.
Who Else Was Available: Stephen Drew went three picks later. Other notable first-rounders were Josh Fields, Taylor Tankersley, and Huston Street.
Others Picked of Note: Weaver's the only one to make the majors out of this young class, but the Angels picked up a first-round talent in Nick Adenhart (14th round) and pilfered Mark Trumbo in the 18th. Hainley Statia was drafted in the ninth, Stephen Marek was grabbed in the 40th round. Nick Green went in the 35th.
Other Available Players of Note: Dustin Pedroia (2), Adam Lind (3), Chris Iannetta (4), Casey Janssen (4), Cla Meredith (6),
Baseball Cube Ranking:: 11th
Summary: Weaver was a gift, but the Angels picked up a lot of other intriguing names. It's far too early to say who the true finds were, but Adenhart and Marek may be real bargains, and in addition to Staitia, Freddy Sandoval has shown something. The Angels didn't have any picks between the first and fourth rounds, so this draft could end up being even more impressive once you see who was available.
Adding It All Up
What does this mean?
Well, by my count, Stoneman has drafted three-and-a-half regulars (Napoli, Kotchman, Kendrick, and Willits), one surefire rotation starter (Weaver), one swingman/potential rotation starter (Saunders), and one top position player prospect (Wood). A couple of back-of-the-bullpen types, too (Bootcheck, Woods) and a top starting prospect (Adenhart). Add in faded prospects like McPherson (injury) and Mathis (struggles), and that about rounds it up.
How did the Angels do in the five years prior?
I won't walk you through it year-by-year, but from 1995 through 1999, and looking at it from the perspective of the year 2002, the Angels drafted two regulars (Darin Erstad and Troy Glaus), one top starter (Jarrod Washburn), and one top pitching prospect/productive rookie (John Lackey). Robb Quinlan and Scot Shields were in the organization, both upcoming (Shields debuted briefly in 2001). Other notables that didn't add up to much, and who had mostly washed out by 2002, were Brian Cooper, Justin Baughman, Scot Schoeneweis, Matt Wise, and Alfredo Amezaga.
I'd say Stoneman's drafts compare pretty well to that group, especially considering that the highest pick Stoneman has had to work with was the 10th in his first year, and the previous regime had two top three picks that were close to no-brainers (Erstad at #1 and Glaus at #3).
The first five drafts under Stoneman haven't been particularly deep, but his draft legacy for these years is going to rest on Kotchman, Kendrick, and Weaver primarily, but with Napoli and Adenhart likely candidates to boost it up. Even if Mathis never amounts to anything or if McPherson's injuries keep him on the sidelines, the success of the above (and others) could be pretty impressive. Add in a formidable international scouting program, and you have the recipe for success that has kept and is likely to keep the Angels competitive for a pennant year in and year out.
But, as this week is the amateur draft, I thought it might be a good time to feature some draft-related material.
This is the first entry, and looks at the first five drafts the Angels made under Bill Stoneman. I didn't want to go past 2004, as it's far too early to say much of anything about the last two drafts. In fact, it's practically impossible to say anything about 2004, either, but it was the first draft with Eddie Bane in the organization and we got at least one major leaguer out of it, so we can take a cursory look.
There are various sources for draft info online, the two best of which (to my knowledge) are at Baseball Reference and The Baseball
Cube.
I'm not really going to evaluate the drafts in a systematic way (the Baseball Cube has a rudimentary draft rating system based on the major league playing time of those drafted, which is a rough starting point I will reference despite its flaws and near uselessness for recent drafts; see it for 2000 here), just take a look at who we drafted, who we could have drafted, and how it all turned out. The list of "could haves" is far from inclusive, as I just went through the first twenty rounds each year and grabbed some recognizable names.
Also, I'm not going to link to every single player I mention, as I usually do, as life is short.
Here we go.
2000
First Round: The Angels had two picks in the round; the 10th and 20th. Stoneman grabbed Joe Torres at 10 and Chris Bootcheck at 20.
Who Else Was Available: Most everyone picked between Torres and Bootcheck has been a disappointment, save one: Chase Utley, who may well be the best overall second baseman in the game right now. The Angels had just installed Adam Kennedy at second, so maybe Utley wasn't as high a priority because of that, but so far he's the pick of the round.
No one outrageously special was taken after Bootcheck; Boof Bonser went one pick later, but he has yet to pan out (though he still could, of course), and Adam Wainwright and Aaron Heilman (who didn't sign with the Twins) came later in the round. Dustin Moseley and Kelly Johnson were two intriguing later picks. The second round saw the Cubs select Bobby Hill (who the Angels had drafted but not signed out of high school) and the Pads take Xavier Nady.
Others Picked of Note: Tommy Murphy got picked in the third round, a pitcher/shortstop at the time. Matt Hensley in the 10th, but the rose so far has been Mike Napoli, somehow only the second- or third-best player taken in the 17th round (Josh Willingham, Rich Harden).
The Angels also grabbed Bobby Jenks in the fifth, and you all know how much good that did us.
Other Available Players of Note: Grady Sizemore (3rd), David DeJesus (4th), Dontrelle Willis (8), Brandon Webb (8), Edwin Encarnacion (9), Brad Hawpe (11), Freddy Sanchez (11), James Shields (16).
Baseball Cube Ranking:: 19th
Summary: Despite finding the gem in Napoli in the middle rounds, this draft would have to be considered a disappointment. The only other player to live up to expectations, to any degree, is Bobby Jenks, who has done it all for the White Sox. The world would be interesting if we had drafted Chase Utley, a local product out of Pasadena and UCLA (imagine Utley at second and Howie at third), and we are just one of 29 teams to have missed out on the likes of Sizemore, Willis, and Webb.
2001
First Round: Once again, the Angels had two picks in the first round, and took Casey Kotchman at 13 and Jeff Mathis at 33.
Who Else Was Available: Gabe Gross went a couple of picks after Casey, as did Jason Bulger. The two most intriguing picks between Kotch and Mathis, though, were Oakland's back-to-back picks of Bobby Crosby and Jeremy Bonderman. The Angels had actually drafted Crosby out of high school, but didn't sign him. Noah Lowry went 30th.
After the Mathis pick, the best pick, and what may end up being the best pick of the first round, was David Wright.
The most notable player picked in between Mathis and the Angel second-round pick is JJ Hardy.
Others Picked of Note: The Angels got Dallas McPherson with that second-round choice, so, his back notwithstanding, they weren't really complaining. Steven Shell and Jake Woods were taken in the third, Nick Gorneault in the 19th, but the only other picks to make the majors (beyond Woods) were Steve Andrade, who did so as a Royal, and Matt Brown, who sipped coffee earlier this year.
Other Available Players of Note: Danny Haren (2), Edwin Jackson (6), Chad Tracy (7), Dan Johnson (7), Kevin Youkilis (8), Dan Uggla (11), Chris Young the Outfielder (16), Jonny Gomes (18), Zach Duke (19).
Baseball Cube Ranking:: 13th
Summary: This is the draft that put the Angels on the prospect map. Kotchman, Mathis, and McPherson toplined prospect lists for the next few years, and were the first three picks taken. Though the idea of having Bobby Crosby or Jeremy Bonderman is intriguing, I can't say the Angels were wrong to stay in the family and grab Casey Kotchman. In retrospect, David Wright would have been a much better pick than Jeff Mathis, but Mathis comes from the Tom Kotchman Florida Pipeline that also brought us Casey, Howie Kendrick, and Scot Shields.
However, this was a top-heavy draft, and it looks like only one guy will pan out. Steve Shell could end up in the bullpen, and maybe Matt Brown will become a new Robb Quinlan down the line, but that's not much booty relative to all the prospects we had lined up from this draft just a couple of years ago. Prospect attrition is harsh, and no matter what the BPro guys tell you, it happens to hitters as well as pitchers. You load up as much as you can and see who survives the gauntlet.
2002
First Round: Joe Saunders with the 12th pick.
Who Else Was Available: The seven players taken right after Saunders: Khalil Greene, Russ Adams, Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, Royce Ring, and James Loney. Jeremy Guthrie, Jeff Francouer, Joe Blanton, Matt Cain, and Mark Teahen all went later in the round.
Others Picked of Note: The Angels got only one other major league player in this draft, but he may turn out to be a doozy: Howie Kendrick in the 10th.
Other Available Players of Note: Elijah Dukes (3), Curtis Granderson (3), Delwyn Young (4), John Maine (6), Scott Olsen (6), Pat Neshek (6), Joel Zumaya (11), Ryan Shealy (11), Brandon McCarthy (17), Russell Martin (17), Kameron Loe (20).
Baseball Cube Ranking:: 20th
Summary: Saunders is a credit to the organization now, but an injury not long after signing delayed his ascent. Scott Kazmir or Cole Hamels would have been very interesting first-round picks, and there was a lot of intruiguing talent taken at the bottom of the round.
Getting Howie was a coup, but the rest of the draft was completely devoid of prospects for the Angels; the only other name that pops out at all is Aaron Peel, who is stagnated at AA.
2003
First Round: Brandon Wood, 23rd.
Who Else Was Available: Chad Billingsley, Daric Barton, Carlos Quentin. Some intriguing names, but none as intriguing as Wood.
Others Picked of Note: Sean Rodriguez in the third, Reggie Willits in the seventh.
Other Available Players of Note: Tom Gorzelanny (2), Andre Ethier (2), Chris Ray (3), Ryan Garko (3), Jonathan Papelbon (4), Kevin Kouzmanoff (6), Anthony Reyes (15), Ian Kinsler (17).
Baseball Cube Ranking:: 25th
Summary: Wood has justified his draft position to this point, even accounting for his early struggles at AAA. Sean Rodriguez and Willits appear to be good picks, but guys like Bob Zimmerman, Von Stertzbach, and Daniel Davidson have washed out a bit. No one else has emerged from the class.
In October, 2003, Eddie Bane took over as scouting director.
2004
First Round: Jered Weaver's price dropped him to 12th, where the Angels caught him.
Who Else Was Available: Stephen Drew went three picks later. Other notable first-rounders were Josh Fields, Taylor Tankersley, and Huston Street.
Others Picked of Note: Weaver's the only one to make the majors out of this young class, but the Angels picked up a first-round talent in Nick Adenhart (14th round) and pilfered Mark Trumbo in the 18th. Hainley Statia was drafted in the ninth, Stephen Marek was grabbed in the 40th round. Nick Green went in the 35th.
Other Available Players of Note: Dustin Pedroia (2), Adam Lind (3), Chris Iannetta (4), Casey Janssen (4), Cla Meredith (6),
Baseball Cube Ranking:: 11th
Summary: Weaver was a gift, but the Angels picked up a lot of other intriguing names. It's far too early to say who the true finds were, but Adenhart and Marek may be real bargains, and in addition to Staitia, Freddy Sandoval has shown something. The Angels didn't have any picks between the first and fourth rounds, so this draft could end up being even more impressive once you see who was available.
Adding It All Up
What does this mean?
Well, by my count, Stoneman has drafted three-and-a-half regulars (Napoli, Kotchman, Kendrick, and Willits), one surefire rotation starter (Weaver), one swingman/potential rotation starter (Saunders), and one top position player prospect (Wood). A couple of back-of-the-bullpen types, too (Bootcheck, Woods) and a top starting prospect (Adenhart). Add in faded prospects like McPherson (injury) and Mathis (struggles), and that about rounds it up.
How did the Angels do in the five years prior?
I won't walk you through it year-by-year, but from 1995 through 1999, and looking at it from the perspective of the year 2002, the Angels drafted two regulars (Darin Erstad and Troy Glaus), one top starter (Jarrod Washburn), and one top pitching prospect/productive rookie (John Lackey). Robb Quinlan and Scot Shields were in the organization, both upcoming (Shields debuted briefly in 2001). Other notables that didn't add up to much, and who had mostly washed out by 2002, were Brian Cooper, Justin Baughman, Scot Schoeneweis, Matt Wise, and Alfredo Amezaga.
I'd say Stoneman's drafts compare pretty well to that group, especially considering that the highest pick Stoneman has had to work with was the 10th in his first year, and the previous regime had two top three picks that were close to no-brainers (Erstad at #1 and Glaus at #3).
The first five drafts under Stoneman haven't been particularly deep, but his draft legacy for these years is going to rest on Kotchman, Kendrick, and Weaver primarily, but with Napoli and Adenhart likely candidates to boost it up. Even if Mathis never amounts to anything or if McPherson's injuries keep him on the sidelines, the success of the above (and others) could be pretty impressive. Add in a formidable international scouting program, and you have the recipe for success that has kept and is likely to keep the Angels competitive for a pennant year in and year out.
Labels: Bill Stoneman, draft, Eddie Bane, prospects
Monday, May 21, 2007
WATCH LIST UPDATE
It's been three weeks since I did this.
You should know that BB-Ref has all the organizational stats on one page, which I link in the POSITION and PITCHER headers.
I'll have you know that our system-wide performance has been terrible, at least in terms of top prospects.
POSITION PLAYERS
Michael Collins, 1B, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
Hank Conger, C, A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
NEW ADDITION!
Terry Evans, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
But at this point he's a .250 hitter at best with no sense of the strike zone. He has some pop when he hits the ball, but he's 25 years old and he's a 250/280/450 hitter, tops, in the majors right now. If he learns the strike zone a bit, he'll be a real prospect.
Nick Gorneault, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
Jeff Mathis, C, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
Kendry Morales, 1B/DH, AAA Salt Lake, BB/TR
Sean Rodriguez, SS, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
Mark Trumbo, 1B, A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
Brandon Wood, SS, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
1. His walk-to-strikeouts are 7:10, a vast improvement, even though he's still striking out too much.
2. If you add 100 points of average to that, it's 291/396/462.
3. Brandon's BABIP dropped from .358 in April to .200 thus far in May.
There is room for improvement, and signs of improvement. Let's see if he can put it together.
Watch Out:
PITCHERS
Nick Adenhart, RHSP, AA Arkansas
Jose Arredondo, RHSP, AA Arkansas
Gustavo Espinoza, LHSP
Placeholder.
Stephen Marek, RHSP, A Rancho Cucamonga
Tommy Mendoza, RHSP
Has not played.
Sean O'Sullivan, RHSP, A Cedar Rapids
Steve Shell, RHSP/RP, AAA Salt Lake and AA Arkansas
Watch Out:
You should know that BB-Ref has all the organizational stats on one page, which I link in the POSITION and PITCHER headers.
I'll have you know that our system-wide performance has been terrible, at least in terms of top prospects.
POSITION PLAYERS
Michael Collins, 1B, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+This is, um ... this is bad.
Now 127 17 7 0 1 2 25 0 1 136 194 216
5/1 75 12 2 0 1 2 16 0 1 160 203 227
Hank Conger, C, A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+Hank is showing some hammer, but not much else. Word is he's struggling behind the plate, too, especially with throwing out runners.
Now 123 32 6 0 6 8 16 6 0 260 311 455
5/1 68 18 2 0 3 4 8 4 0 265 306 426
NEW ADDITION!
Terry Evans, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+Truth be told, I'm not really sold on Evans, but if I'm gonna keep Nick Gorneault on here, I might as well put in Evans, who is better, younger, and plays better defense.
Now 156 50 13 3 6 9 42 11 4 321 355 558
But at this point he's a .250 hitter at best with no sense of the strike zone. He has some pop when he hits the ball, but he's 25 years old and he's a 250/280/450 hitter, tops, in the majors right now. If he learns the strike zone a bit, he'll be a real prospect.
Nick Gorneault, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+If you look at his season line, it appears that Gorneault may be stagnating at AAA. He may be, but his last 70 AB have gone fairly well for him, as he's put up a 300/380/386 line. Not much, but more than he was doing before.
Now 151 36 10 0 3 18 34 8 2 238 327 364
5/1 81 15 4 0 3 9 17 5 2 185 283 346
Jeff Mathis, C, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+Sigh. Nothing happening here. Trade bait?
Now 135 35 9 0 2 8 25 2 0 259 301 370
5/1 81 24 6 0 2 5 13 2 0 296 333 444
Kendry Morales, 1B/DH, AAA Salt Lake, BB/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+Yeah, he's in the majors now, but I assume he'll be returning to AAA soon, as he's not getting any playing time with the big club, despite looking good in his few games thus far. His line at Salt Lake has been ugly, but I would expect him to turn it on later this summer.
Now 94 27 5 0 1 2 11 0 1 287 302 372
5/1 73 21 2 0 1 2 9 0 1 288 307 356
Sean Rodriguez, SS, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+Can this organization catch a break? Rodriguez started off great, surpassing Brandon Wood's 2006 performance in the same league. But then: ca-rash. At least Sean's keeping his strikeouts down, somewhat (everything's relative). He's never been or projected to be a high-average guy in the minors, but he'll have to do better than .252 at AA to even project to a reasonable batting average. I'd like to see him bring it back up north of .300; it won't stay there, but if he can sustain a .250 average in the majors, his secondary skills will be more than enough to make him a contributor.
Now 143 36 9 0 6 19 35 6 3 252 374 441
5/1 81 25 6 0 4 12 21 3 3 309 423 531
Mark Trumbo, 1B, A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+Trumbo started off slowly last year, built up toward respectability, had a good month and crashed. He's hitting 250/282/412 in May, which is a tiny step in the right direction. But the fact of the matter is he won't go anywhere striking out that often. Will a return to the mound be in order?
Now 117 27 6 0 3 5 30 1 2 231 266 359
5/1 49 10 1 0 1 2 16 0 2 204 245 286
Brandon Wood, SS, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+Yes, that 191/296/362 this month (47 AB) is ugly. But:
Now 131 31 8 0 5 18 38 3 0 237 331 412
5/1 84 22 6 0 3 11 28 2 0 262 351 440
1. His walk-to-strikeouts are 7:10, a vast improvement, even though he's still striking out too much.
2. If you add 100 points of average to that, it's 291/396/462.
3. Brandon's BABIP dropped from .358 in April to .200 thus far in May.
There is room for improvement, and signs of improvement. Let's see if he can put it together.
Watch Out:
Who Lvl AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+Have you noticed how bad everyone is doing? Some of our teams, such as Rancho, can't do anything. There's not a whole lot to like out of these guys, either, so far. Peter Bourjos is actually on the upswing. Clay Fuller is waiting on his first 2007 appearance. Ryan Mount continues to struggle. Norberto Ortiz has also yet to debut. Aaron Peel is treading water. I've added Christopher Pettit; he's a bit old for the league (22), and could draw some more walks, but leads the team in OPS by quite a bit. He's primarily a left fielder, but has appeared at the other two outfield positions this season. He hit 336/445/566 in Rookie ball last year, so it will be interesting to see if the Angels are more aggressive with him; I would doubt it, but Rancho is almost devoid of prospects. P.J. Phillips is mired. Luis Rivera also hasn't played. Freddy Sandoval has always had nice control of the zone, but his average is a very nice surprise in the early going. Hainley Statia started slow and is getting his average up; a shortstop, 21 years old (quite young for the league), he is only bettered in OPS on the team by 24-year-old Bradley Coon. Third baseman Matthew Sweeney is having a tough, tough month; he was hitting .349 at the end of April.
Bourjos A 91 25 3 2 1 9 22 12 3 275 346 385
ClyFuller has not played
Mount A 111 24 2 0 1 12 21 8 1 216 288 261
Ortiz has not played
Peel AA 146 32 7 1 3 4 20 0 0 219 255 342
Pettit A 135 46 16 0 4 10 24 11 3 341 407 548
Phillips A 117 26 2 2 3 2 46 6 1 222 248 350
Rivera has not played
Sandoval AA 141 45 8 1 2 23 21 11 4 319 410 433
Statia A+ 168 47 10 2 1 20 22 12 2 280 360 381
Sweeney A 124 34 5 1 3 11 20 0 4 274 343 403
PITCHERS
Nick Adenhart, RHSP, AA Arkansas
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAI guess no one stays perfect, huh? The loss of control is a bad thing, but, remember, this kid is 20; the average Texas League pitcher is 24.4, the average hitter 24.7. Adenhart's the youngest pitcher on the team by roughly two years. This kid is a hero. I expect him to turn it around.
Now 3 2 0 8 8 47.3 43 0 35 21 2.68
5/1 3 1 0 5 5 33.7 24 0 27 10 0.80
Jose Arredondo, RHSP, AA Arkansas
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAJeez, is this whole organization struggling? Well, not the big team, obviously. But it seems like nearly everyone is on the downswing this month.
Now 0 1 6 16 0 19.0 12 2 22 10 3.32
5/1 0 1 2 8 0 11.0 8 1 14 5 1.64
Gustavo Espinoza, LHSP
Placeholder.
Stephen Marek, RHSP, A Rancho Cucamonga
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERACan you survive in the California League with that kind of strikeout-to-walk ratio? At least it's getting better.
Now 3 2 0 7 7 38.7 34 2 23 15 3.52
5/1 1 0 0 3 3 15.0 12 1 7 6 2.40
Tommy Mendoza, RHSP
Has not played.
Sean O'Sullivan, RHSP, A Cedar Rapids
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAHe's giving up a lot of hits, but is demonstrating some good control and upping his strikeouts.
Now 2 3 0 8 8 48.0 56 2 36 13 3.00
5/1 1 2 0 4 4 23.0 26 2 13 6 3.52
Steve Shell, RHSP/RP, AAA Salt Lake and AA Arkansas
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAI still don't know if there's a compelling reason he's not in Salt Lake's rotation, and I think we can close the book on him at AA, his recent struggles in the PCL notwithstanding.
Now 1 0 0 5 1 12.0 18 3 4 2 3.75 AAA
5/1 0 0 0 2 1 7.0 9 1 3 1 1.29 AAA
Now 0 0 0 5 0 13.3 10 1 19 1 0.69 AA
5/1 0 0 0 4 0 10.3 8 1 14 1 0.87 AA
Watch Out:
Who Lvl W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERATrevor Bell only has one start this month, so we can't really say anything. In addition to not getting arrested for beating up a spouse, Jason Bulger is actually having a nice month. Nick Green has his ERA going in the right direction, down from 5.00 at the end of April. Warner Madrigal pulled the opposite trick. Rafael Rodriguez has had a terrible month, completely losing the strike zone and getting battered all over the place.
Bell A 0 2 0 3 3 13.0 18 0 8 2 4.85
Bulger AAA 1 1 0 15 0 18.3 17 1 25 12 3.00
Green AA 3 2 0 9 9 54.0 51 4 34 10 4.83
Madrigal A 1 2 2 15 0 16.0 22 2 15 5 4.50
Rodriguez AA 0 4 0 14 0 21.0 30 1 14 13 3.97
Labels: prospects, Watch List
