Tuesday, October 30, 2007
BATTING RUNS ABOVE AVERAGE, ANGEL 3B AND ALEX RODRIGUEZ
(For multi-position players, batting runs are apportioned from seasonal total by percentage of season's games played at 3B. I used games started for 2004-2006 and games played for 2007 [BB-Ref didn't have the games started listed when I went through, but any discrepancies should be minor]. Batting runs figures come from BB-Ref.)
+197.8 runs is approximately +20 wins, or five wins per year. Of course, as it turns out, Angel third basemen over the past few years have been a generally average lot, so A-Rod comparison to our guys isn't too different from his comparison to the average.
A replacement player is about two wins below average, A-Rod over the last four years has been about five wins better than average (offensively only) per season, so he's about seven wins above replacement. How much is that worth?
Luckily, the Angels just happen to have a pretty average player who's about two wins above replacement: Gary Matthews, Jr. How much is he paid per season? It averages out to $10M -- or $5M per win above replacement.
And if A-Rod is seven wins above replacement, and the Angels are paying our $5M per such win, that means that over the past four years A-Rod has "earned" by his performance ...
... $35M per year.
Of course, he likely won't be as good over the next few years as he was over the past contract, and we haven't looked at defense yet. But stay tuned -- we'll get to those topics in the coming days.
2004
Figgins: + 0.6
Quinlan: + 5.4
Halter: - 3.7
Glaus: + 4.0
McPherson: - 0.4
Amezaga: - 0.3
Angel Tot: + 5.6
Rodriguez: +28.8
A-Rod >: +23.2
2005
McPherson: - 1.5
Figgins: + 0.5
Izturis: - 2.4
Quinlan: - 2.4
Merloni: - 0.4
Sorenson: - 0.1
Angel Tot: - 6.3
Rodriguez: +66.4
A-Rod >: +72.7
2006
Izturis: + 1.2
Figgins: - 2.8
McPherson: - 0.9
Quinlan: + 0.7
Alfonzo: - 5.6
Kendrick: - 0.1
Angel Tot: - 7.5
Rodriguez: +30.8
A-Rod >: +38.3
2007
Figgins: +11.5
Izturis: - 0.4
Wood: - 3.5
Quinlan: - 1.0
Brown: - 0.8
Aybar: - 0.2
Angel Tot: + 5.6
Rodriguez: +69.2
A-Rod >: +63.6
Totals
Angels: - 2.6
A-Rod: +195.2
A-Rod >: +197.8
+197.8 runs is approximately +20 wins, or five wins per year. Of course, as it turns out, Angel third basemen over the past few years have been a generally average lot, so A-Rod comparison to our guys isn't too different from his comparison to the average.
A replacement player is about two wins below average, A-Rod over the last four years has been about five wins better than average (offensively only) per season, so he's about seven wins above replacement. How much is that worth?
Luckily, the Angels just happen to have a pretty average player who's about two wins above replacement: Gary Matthews, Jr. How much is he paid per season? It averages out to $10M -- or $5M per win above replacement.
And if A-Rod is seven wins above replacement, and the Angels are paying our $5M per such win, that means that over the past four years A-Rod has "earned" by his performance ...
... $35M per year.
Of course, he likely won't be as good over the next few years as he was over the past contract, and we haven't looked at defense yet. But stay tuned -- we'll get to those topics in the coming days.
Labels: Alex Rodriguez
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