Tuesday, November 06, 2007
AN ALTERNATIVE PRESENTS ITSELF
Over the past couple of weeks, I've been posting about the possibility of the Angels acquiring Alex Rodriguez. Recent developments, long-rumored, present us with another potential option for improving the Angel offense.
The Florida Marlins are reportedly willing to put Miguel Cabrera on the market.
Miguel Cabrera is a young hitter of astonishing quality and achievement. He doesn't turn 25 until April; here are some stats of Cabrera and two other hitters through the age of 24:
Player B is Frank Robinson.
There are, however, certain negatives to Cabrera:
1. His defense.
By all accounts, both anecdotal and statistical, Cabrera is a bad third baseman. Per the Baseball Info Solutions data at the Hardball Times, he was approximately 15 plays below the league average on balls in his zone last year, worth over 10 runs (he also had an unexceptional total of plays made outside of his zone, though this doesn't necessarily mean anything). He was approximately -8 plays, or around -6 runs, below average in 2006.
2. His conditioning.
Miguel Cabrera is progressively becoming a fatter and fatter bastard. This bodes ill for his conditioning, long-term health, and his ability to play defense and run the bases.
3. He will cost a fortune -- in players.
The Marlins are allegedly seeking a young third baseman, a young pitcher, and a center fielder.
It just so happens that the Angels can offer such a package: Brandon Wood, one of Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana, and -- though he may be older than what the Marlins are looking for -- Chone Figgins.
This is a steep price, even for a hitter of Cabrera's talents. But while Brandon Wood is looking like the next Dean Palmer (not a bad thing with good glove at either of his potential positions), Cabrera is a sure bet.
Of course, trading one of Saunders and Santana would mean we'd have to go out and get a starting pitcher. Intriguingly, Florida is also looking to shop Dontrelle Willis. Would Florida accept a package of Wood, Saunders/Santana, Figgins, and maybe one more mid-level prospect (not Adenhart) for Cabrera and Willis? I suspect they'd think about it. Should the Angels?
Let's break this down:
- Is Miguel Cabrera a step up from Brandon Wood? Almost certainly.
- With Reggie Willits around to caddy Gary Matthews Jr and Garret Anderson, with the payroll flexibility to bring Juan Rivera back to support the corners, and with Maicer Izturis providing roughly league-average production as a infield backup, is Chone Figgins expendable? I like the guy, and he's coming off a big year, but I can't help but answer "yes".
- Is giving up one of Saunders and Santana and getting Willits an upgrade or downgrade, and if it's the latter, is it enough to negate the improvement made by adding Cabrera to the lineup?
By BB-Ref's linear weights figures, Cabrera has been +46.3, +56.6, and +45.7 runs above average, offensively, in each of the last three years; he's a good bet to be +50 or so in the next couple of years. Dock 10 runs for his D, he's still a +40 player, roughly 4 wins above average. Chone Figgins, whom Cabrera would be replacing in the lineup, over the past three years has been +1.8, -13.4, and +13.4 (these figures include basestealing, but not other baserunning). Even with his defense, I'd guess that Figgins in 2008 projects to be roughly average, maybe just a bit above.
So we're looking at maybe a 35-40-run difference between Cabrera and Figgins.
It is obvious that the difference, in the short term, between Saunders/Santana and Willits will be far less than 40 runs. Let's look at their totals the past four years, which of course for the Halos is only a couple of years (PR is Pitching Runs, or Earned Runs Prevented Above Average):
I'll spare you the details, but looking at Willis' batted-ball stats, we can see that he allowed home runs more frequently last year on flyballs than at most other points in his career, which could have been a big part of his struggles. Whether or not that's a fluky thing or a sign of a change in his skill level, I don't know. If he's healthy, I have trouble believing that he just forgot how to pitch or something.
My preference would be to only give up Wood and Figgins -- that does open a shortstop hole in 2009, but we don't know that Wood would fill it, anyway, though if we still have him in 2008 I'd love for him to return to that position at AAA -- for Cabrera. I think there's a good chance that both of Saunders and Santana will be at least as productive (and cheaper) than Willis in the next few years (based on their component stats and relative ages), so I don't know that I'd like to exchange one of them. But I can see talks moving in that direction, and, despite the money, Willis is probably a solid bet to shore up the bottom of the rotation.
As for the question of Cabrera vis-a-vis A-Rod, the question is really "What are we more willing to part with -- players or money?" I don't know what Arte's answer to this would be. From a roster construction standpoint, the ideal would be to sign A-Rod and hold on to all our chips; Wood can be bred for short, Saunders and Santana can develop, and we still have Figgins to play or be traded for a pitcher if we don't trust in the tykes.
Even re-signing Cabrera and/or Willis in future years would likely cost less (combined) than A-Rod would -- though of course that's a few years down the road -- so that's obviously a more cost-effective solution in terms of dollars (though adding a shortstop to the payroll -- or re-signing Orlando Cabrera -- in lieu of the bargain Wood is another financial cost to consider in that scenario).
I do think these are the best two alternatives of which we're aware; there is occasional talk of Miguel Tejada, but Tejada's on the wrong side of 30 and is not a hitter of the caliber of either Rodriguez or Miggy, and may well demand a package of similar value (to the Cabrera package) in exchange.
So, money or players? I don't know.
The Florida Marlins are reportedly willing to put Miguel Cabrera on the market.
Miguel Cabrera is a young hitter of astonishing quality and achievement. He doesn't turn 25 until April; here are some stats of Cabrera and two other hitters through the age of 24:
Player PA OPS+ HR AVG OBP SLGPlayer A is Hank Aaron.
Player A 3173 145 140 .316 .365 .543
Cabrera 3072 143 138 .313 .388 .542
Player B 3156 142 165 .298 .380 .552
Player B is Frank Robinson.
There are, however, certain negatives to Cabrera:
1. His defense.
By all accounts, both anecdotal and statistical, Cabrera is a bad third baseman. Per the Baseball Info Solutions data at the Hardball Times, he was approximately 15 plays below the league average on balls in his zone last year, worth over 10 runs (he also had an unexceptional total of plays made outside of his zone, though this doesn't necessarily mean anything). He was approximately -8 plays, or around -6 runs, below average in 2006.
2. His conditioning.
Miguel Cabrera is progressively becoming a fatter and fatter bastard. This bodes ill for his conditioning, long-term health, and his ability to play defense and run the bases.
3. He will cost a fortune -- in players.
The Marlins are allegedly seeking a young third baseman, a young pitcher, and a center fielder.
It just so happens that the Angels can offer such a package: Brandon Wood, one of Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana, and -- though he may be older than what the Marlins are looking for -- Chone Figgins.
This is a steep price, even for a hitter of Cabrera's talents. But while Brandon Wood is looking like the next Dean Palmer (not a bad thing with good glove at either of his potential positions), Cabrera is a sure bet.
Of course, trading one of Saunders and Santana would mean we'd have to go out and get a starting pitcher. Intriguingly, Florida is also looking to shop Dontrelle Willis. Would Florida accept a package of Wood, Saunders/Santana, Figgins, and maybe one more mid-level prospect (not Adenhart) for Cabrera and Willis? I suspect they'd think about it. Should the Angels?
Let's break this down:
- Is Miguel Cabrera a step up from Brandon Wood? Almost certainly.
- With Reggie Willits around to caddy Gary Matthews Jr and Garret Anderson, with the payroll flexibility to bring Juan Rivera back to support the corners, and with Maicer Izturis providing roughly league-average production as a infield backup, is Chone Figgins expendable? I like the guy, and he's coming off a big year, but I can't help but answer "yes".
- Is giving up one of Saunders and Santana and getting Willits an upgrade or downgrade, and if it's the latter, is it enough to negate the improvement made by adding Cabrera to the lineup?
By BB-Ref's linear weights figures, Cabrera has been +46.3, +56.6, and +45.7 runs above average, offensively, in each of the last three years; he's a good bet to be +50 or so in the next couple of years. Dock 10 runs for his D, he's still a +40 player, roughly 4 wins above average. Chone Figgins, whom Cabrera would be replacing in the lineup, over the past three years has been +1.8, -13.4, and +13.4 (these figures include basestealing, but not other baserunning). Even with his defense, I'd guess that Figgins in 2008 projects to be roughly average, maybe just a bit above.
So we're looking at maybe a 35-40-run difference between Cabrera and Figgins.
It is obvious that the difference, in the short term, between Saunders/Santana and Willits will be far less than 40 runs. Let's look at their totals the past four years, which of course for the Halos is only a couple of years (PR is Pitching Runs, or Earned Runs Prevented Above Average):
Pitcher BF K/BF BB/BF HR/BF H/BF ERA+ PR PR/IPAs you can see, Willis has been better over the past few seasons than the two Angel youths. However, somewhat like Santana, he's coming off a bad season where he pitched well below-average.
Willis 3725 .165 .077 .022 .241 113 +28 +.032
Saunders 816 .152 .082 .025 .257 97 - 3 -.016
Santana 2104 .174 .083 .030 .235 92 -20 -.041
I'll spare you the details, but looking at Willis' batted-ball stats, we can see that he allowed home runs more frequently last year on flyballs than at most other points in his career, which could have been a big part of his struggles. Whether or not that's a fluky thing or a sign of a change in his skill level, I don't know. If he's healthy, I have trouble believing that he just forgot how to pitch or something.
My preference would be to only give up Wood and Figgins -- that does open a shortstop hole in 2009, but we don't know that Wood would fill it, anyway, though if we still have him in 2008 I'd love for him to return to that position at AAA -- for Cabrera. I think there's a good chance that both of Saunders and Santana will be at least as productive (and cheaper) than Willis in the next few years (based on their component stats and relative ages), so I don't know that I'd like to exchange one of them. But I can see talks moving in that direction, and, despite the money, Willis is probably a solid bet to shore up the bottom of the rotation.
As for the question of Cabrera vis-a-vis A-Rod, the question is really "What are we more willing to part with -- players or money?" I don't know what Arte's answer to this would be. From a roster construction standpoint, the ideal would be to sign A-Rod and hold on to all our chips; Wood can be bred for short, Saunders and Santana can develop, and we still have Figgins to play or be traded for a pitcher if we don't trust in the tykes.
Even re-signing Cabrera and/or Willis in future years would likely cost less (combined) than A-Rod would -- though of course that's a few years down the road -- so that's obviously a more cost-effective solution in terms of dollars (though adding a shortstop to the payroll -- or re-signing Orlando Cabrera -- in lieu of the bargain Wood is another financial cost to consider in that scenario).
I do think these are the best two alternatives of which we're aware; there is occasional talk of Miguel Tejada, but Tejada's on the wrong side of 30 and is not a hitter of the caliber of either Rodriguez or Miggy, and may well demand a package of similar value (to the Cabrera package) in exchange.
So, money or players? I don't know.
Labels: Alex Rodriguez, Brandon Wood, Chone Figgins, Dontrelle Willis, Ervin Santana, Garret Anderson, Gary Matthews Jr, Joe Saunders, Juan Rivera, Maicer Izturis, Miguel Cabrera, Miguel Tejada
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
ANGEL PAYROLL, 2007 AND 2008
Well, the LA Times kinda beat me to this, but I had this post pretty much prepped already, so here we go:
(Per Cot's Baseball Contracts)
The Times and I agree that the payroll as of now is roughly $100M. The article also points out that the Angels "could clear $18 million after 2008 by letting Anderson and Cabrera go and free up $4.75 million by trading Chone Figgins." These things are true. But a few other points, just kind of randomly assembled:
1. We also may be able to clear Kelvim Escobar after 2009, depending on the development of young pitchers. That's another ~$9M per year.
2. The strong farm system is a boon to us here, as key players such as Napoli, Kotchman, Kendrick, Willits, Weaver, Santana, Saunders, and Quinlan are all pretty cheap.
3. At the same time, these guys aren't that cheap forever, and at some point the Angels are going to have to look into locking down some of them through their arbitration years and beyond. Come 2009 and 2010, Weaver could be up to $5M or $7M per year, and it's easy to see Kotch and/or Kendrick hitting that level, as well. Still, these guys won't be more than $20M per year between them, and if Brandon Wood can take over for Orlando Cabrera starting in 2009, that would be a big help.
4. The LA Times piece also mentions that the Angels may be in need or want of another starting pitcher, one who might cost money. I don't know if that's speculation or if the team lacks faith in Santana and/or Saunders.
Anyway, what does adding $30 or $35M to this payroll do? One fear is that it reduces flexibility; with nearly $50M per year tied up in two players, that doesn't give you a lot of room to navigate. Let's speculate as to how the above list could look in 2009:
If Arte is committed to a payroll in the $130M-$150M range (or above, even), that actually gives him some wiggle room. Of course, as mentioned above, come 2011 or so Kotchman, Kendrick, and Napoli may be worth close to $20M instead of $3M. What if all of our young pitchers wash out, and we need to go out and get one (like we did with Kelvim and Colon), but we're already expending more than $140M per year? Would Arte go for spending more?
I don't know, and that's where our analysis runs into a wall: at some point, Arte has to decide if spending that much is worthwhile to him. No one else can make that decision. I think Alex Rodriguez is a tremendous, once-in-a-lifetime player, and that adding him to this lineup makes the team the favorite in the division for the next few years and a legit World Series contender year-in and year-out. But it's easy for me to say that; it's not my money.
And while money doesn't guarantee you rings, right now the Red Sox are paying out more than $140M in salary, and they've gotten two in the last four years. The Yankees are in a Series drought, but still a formidable club, and their payroll is closer to $200M. If Arte wants to play with the big boys, he may have open his wallet a little wider.
(Per Cot's Baseball Contracts)
2007: $109,251,333
2008 (in millions):
Guerrero: $14.500
Anderson: $14.000
Rodriguez: $10.000*
Cabrera: $ 9.000
Escobar: $ 9.000
Matthews: $ 9.000
Lackey: $ 7.000
Speier: $ 4.750
Figgins: $ 4.750
Shields: $ 4.250
Oliver: $ 2.000
Quinlan: $ 1.050
Izturis: $ .530*
Santana: $ .500*
Kendrick: $ .425*
Napoli: $ .425*
Weaver: $ .425*
Aybar: $ .425*
Kotchman: $ .425*
McPherson: $ .400*
Murphy: $ .400*
Willits: $ .400*
Moseley: $ .400*
Mathis: $ .400*
Balance: $ 6.080 (16 remaining roster spots x $.38M)
-------------------------------------------------------
$100.535
*denotes guesstimate for non-arb players and K-Rod
The Times and I agree that the payroll as of now is roughly $100M. The article also points out that the Angels "could clear $18 million after 2008 by letting Anderson and Cabrera go and free up $4.75 million by trading Chone Figgins." These things are true. But a few other points, just kind of randomly assembled:
1. We also may be able to clear Kelvim Escobar after 2009, depending on the development of young pitchers. That's another ~$9M per year.
2. The strong farm system is a boon to us here, as key players such as Napoli, Kotchman, Kendrick, Willits, Weaver, Santana, Saunders, and Quinlan are all pretty cheap.
3. At the same time, these guys aren't that cheap forever, and at some point the Angels are going to have to look into locking down some of them through their arbitration years and beyond. Come 2009 and 2010, Weaver could be up to $5M or $7M per year, and it's easy to see Kotch and/or Kendrick hitting that level, as well. Still, these guys won't be more than $20M per year between them, and if Brandon Wood can take over for Orlando Cabrera starting in 2009, that would be a big help.
4. The LA Times piece also mentions that the Angels may be in need or want of another starting pitcher, one who might cost money. I don't know if that's speculation or if the team lacks faith in Santana and/or Saunders.
Anyway, what does adding $30 or $35M to this payroll do? One fear is that it reduces flexibility; with nearly $50M per year tied up in two players, that doesn't give you a lot of room to navigate. Let's speculate as to how the above list could look in 2009:
2009 Speculative (in millions):
A-Rod: $35.000
Guerrero: $15.000Anderson: $14.000
Anderson: $ 3.000 (buyout)
Rodriguez: $12.000*Cabrera: $ 9.000
Wood: $ 0.400
Escobar: $ 9.500
Matthews: $10.000
Lackey: $ 9.000
Speier: $ 4.750Figgins: $ 4.750
Shields: $ 5.000Oliver: $ 2.000
Quinlan: $ 1.500*
Izturis: $ 1.000*
Santana: $ 1.000*
Kendrick: $ 1.000*
Napoli: $ 1.000*
Weaver: $ 1.000*
Aybar: $ 1.000*
Kotchman: $ 1.000*McPherson: $ .400*Murphy: $ .400*
Willits: $ 1.000*
Moseley: $ 1.000*
Mathis: $ 1.000*
Balance: $ 7.600 (20 remaining roster spots x $.38M)
-------------------------------------------------------
$122.750
If Arte is committed to a payroll in the $130M-$150M range (or above, even), that actually gives him some wiggle room. Of course, as mentioned above, come 2011 or so Kotchman, Kendrick, and Napoli may be worth close to $20M instead of $3M. What if all of our young pitchers wash out, and we need to go out and get one (like we did with Kelvim and Colon), but we're already expending more than $140M per year? Would Arte go for spending more?
I don't know, and that's where our analysis runs into a wall: at some point, Arte has to decide if spending that much is worthwhile to him. No one else can make that decision. I think Alex Rodriguez is a tremendous, once-in-a-lifetime player, and that adding him to this lineup makes the team the favorite in the division for the next few years and a legit World Series contender year-in and year-out. But it's easy for me to say that; it's not my money.
And while money doesn't guarantee you rings, right now the Red Sox are paying out more than $140M in salary, and they've gotten two in the last four years. The Yankees are in a Series drought, but still a formidable club, and their payroll is closer to $200M. If Arte wants to play with the big boys, he may have open his wallet a little wider.
Labels: Alex Rodriguez
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
BATTING RUNS ABOVE AVERAGE, ANGEL 3B AND ALEX RODRIGUEZ
(For multi-position players, batting runs are apportioned from seasonal total by percentage of season's games played at 3B. I used games started for 2004-2006 and games played for 2007 [BB-Ref didn't have the games started listed when I went through, but any discrepancies should be minor]. Batting runs figures come from BB-Ref.)
+197.8 runs is approximately +20 wins, or five wins per year. Of course, as it turns out, Angel third basemen over the past few years have been a generally average lot, so A-Rod comparison to our guys isn't too different from his comparison to the average.
A replacement player is about two wins below average, A-Rod over the last four years has been about five wins better than average (offensively only) per season, so he's about seven wins above replacement. How much is that worth?
Luckily, the Angels just happen to have a pretty average player who's about two wins above replacement: Gary Matthews, Jr. How much is he paid per season? It averages out to $10M -- or $5M per win above replacement.
And if A-Rod is seven wins above replacement, and the Angels are paying our $5M per such win, that means that over the past four years A-Rod has "earned" by his performance ...
... $35M per year.
Of course, he likely won't be as good over the next few years as he was over the past contract, and we haven't looked at defense yet. But stay tuned -- we'll get to those topics in the coming days.
2004
Figgins: + 0.6
Quinlan: + 5.4
Halter: - 3.7
Glaus: + 4.0
McPherson: - 0.4
Amezaga: - 0.3
Angel Tot: + 5.6
Rodriguez: +28.8
A-Rod >: +23.2
2005
McPherson: - 1.5
Figgins: + 0.5
Izturis: - 2.4
Quinlan: - 2.4
Merloni: - 0.4
Sorenson: - 0.1
Angel Tot: - 6.3
Rodriguez: +66.4
A-Rod >: +72.7
2006
Izturis: + 1.2
Figgins: - 2.8
McPherson: - 0.9
Quinlan: + 0.7
Alfonzo: - 5.6
Kendrick: - 0.1
Angel Tot: - 7.5
Rodriguez: +30.8
A-Rod >: +38.3
2007
Figgins: +11.5
Izturis: - 0.4
Wood: - 3.5
Quinlan: - 1.0
Brown: - 0.8
Aybar: - 0.2
Angel Tot: + 5.6
Rodriguez: +69.2
A-Rod >: +63.6
Totals
Angels: - 2.6
A-Rod: +195.2
A-Rod >: +197.8
+197.8 runs is approximately +20 wins, or five wins per year. Of course, as it turns out, Angel third basemen over the past few years have been a generally average lot, so A-Rod comparison to our guys isn't too different from his comparison to the average.
A replacement player is about two wins below average, A-Rod over the last four years has been about five wins better than average (offensively only) per season, so he's about seven wins above replacement. How much is that worth?
Luckily, the Angels just happen to have a pretty average player who's about two wins above replacement: Gary Matthews, Jr. How much is he paid per season? It averages out to $10M -- or $5M per win above replacement.
And if A-Rod is seven wins above replacement, and the Angels are paying our $5M per such win, that means that over the past four years A-Rod has "earned" by his performance ...
... $35M per year.
Of course, he likely won't be as good over the next few years as he was over the past contract, and we haven't looked at defense yet. But stay tuned -- we'll get to those topics in the coming days.
Labels: Alex Rodriguez
Monday, October 29, 2007
A SERIES OF FACTS POSTED HERE AS A BASIS FOR AN ARGUMENT YET TO COME
OPS+, 2004-2007, at least 300 Games Played
1. Barry Bonds 198
2. Albert Pujols 169
3. David Ortiz 159
4. Travis Hafner 155
5. Alex Rodriguez 154
6. Ryan Howard 151
7. Lance Berkman 149
7. Vlad Guerrero 149
7. Manny Ramirez 149
10. Miguel Cabrera 149
OPS+, Active Leaders, at least 3000 Plate Appearances
1. Barry Bones 182
2. Albert Pujols 167
3. Frank Thomas 157
4. Manny Ramirez 154
5. Jim Thome 150
6. Vlad Guerrero 148
7. Jason Giambi 147
7. Alex Rodriguez 147
9. Lance Berkman 146
10. several 143
Angel League Rank in OPS+ This Century
2000: 4t
2001: 11
2002: 5t
2003: 7
2004: 6
2005: 8
2006: 11
2007: 7t
SLG, 2004-2007, at least 300 Games Played
1. Barry Bonds .644
2. Albert Pujols .626
3. David Ortiz .616
4. Ryan Howard .610
5. Manny Ramirez .581
6. Alex Rodriguez .573
7. Travis Hafner .567
8. Vlad Guerrero .566
9. Aramis Ramirez .564
10. Chipper Jones .560
SLG, Active Leaders, at least 3000 Plate Appearances
1. Albert Pujols .620
2. Barry Bonds .607
3. Manny Ramirez .593
4. Todd Helton .583
5. Vlad Guerrero .579
6. Alex Rodriguez .578
7. Jim Thome .565
8. Frank Thomas .561
9. Lance Berkman .559
10. David Ortiz .559
Angel League Rank in SLG This Century
2000: 1
2001: 12
2002: 6
2003: 9
2004: 9
2005: 9
2006: 8t
2007: 9
Labels: Alex Rodriguez
Monday, November 13, 2006
WE WILL NOT HAVE MATSUZAKA
The Red Sox have won the right to negotiate with Japanese star pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka.
So, if the Angels really want to sign a free agent pitcher and trade a youngster, that pretty much narrows us down to Barry Zito or Jason Schmidt on the marquee name list.
Given the exorbitant costs involved with Matsuzaka -- paying roughly $36M or whatever just to negotiate what will likely be a multi-year deal worth $10-$15M per year -- this is a happy result.
The Yankees losing out on Daisuke may also make them more eager to trade for pitching, which will keep in motion rumors regarding Alex Rodriguez.
The Red Sox have won the right to negotiate with Japanese star pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka.
So, if the Angels really want to sign a free agent pitcher and trade a youngster, that pretty much narrows us down to Barry Zito or Jason Schmidt on the marquee name list.
Given the exorbitant costs involved with Matsuzaka -- paying roughly $36M or whatever just to negotiate what will likely be a multi-year deal worth $10-$15M per year -- this is a happy result.
The Yankees losing out on Daisuke may also make them more eager to trade for pitching, which will keep in motion rumors regarding Alex Rodriguez.
Labels: Alex Rodriguez, Barry Zito, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jason Schmidt
YES, WE HAVE NO ARAMIS
Aramis Ramirez has re-signed with the Cubs, inking a five-year, $73M deal.
I'm somewhat okay with this; I don't think there's any chance Ramirez will really be worth nearly $15M per year over the next five years. Sure, he's a hell of a hitter, but he's a bad defender who will be spending more of his contract on the wrong side of 30 than the right side. (Incidentally, Aramis is the first player younger than me to debut in the major leagues.)
However, I would likely preferred to overpay for Aramis in dollars than overpay for someone like Tejada or A-Rod in players. And, per Mike DiGiovanna's write-up in the Times today, we might end up getting the worst of both worlds.
One scenario has the Angels either shelling out millions and millions of dollars for Japanese phenom Daisuke Matsuzaka or millions for Barry Zito, and then making one of the Ervin-Jered-Saunders troika the centerpiece of a trade for Tejada, A-Rod, or Vernon Wells. Such a move could provide a marginal improvement in the short term, but it would cost a lot more in money and would also mortgage our future for immediate gains. Both Ervin and Jered are likely to have more future remaining value than Zito, for instance, and while Joe Saunders doesn't quite have their upside, he's important insurance against an injury to a rotation starter.
Other pondered moves would include going after Alfonso Soriano, who will be 31 next season, is coming off of his best year ever and will likely be overpaid as a result, and hasn't ever played center field, or Gary Matthews Jr., who's even older and never had a good year until last season. I would guess his chances of repeating his 2006 performance are rather slim.
I still Vernon Wells is the best match of anyone we're talking about; sure, adding a guy like Tejada or A-Rod would be great for the offense, but it would cost us a lot in money and pitching depth. Wells is a lesser hitter, but an excellent defender, and the youngest position player discussed in this post. He would probably cost less than the other guys in terms of who we would have to give up, and provide us benefits on both sides of the ball, so to speak
Aramis Ramirez has re-signed with the Cubs, inking a five-year, $73M deal.
I'm somewhat okay with this; I don't think there's any chance Ramirez will really be worth nearly $15M per year over the next five years. Sure, he's a hell of a hitter, but he's a bad defender who will be spending more of his contract on the wrong side of 30 than the right side. (Incidentally, Aramis is the first player younger than me to debut in the major leagues.)
However, I would likely preferred to overpay for Aramis in dollars than overpay for someone like Tejada or A-Rod in players. And, per Mike DiGiovanna's write-up in the Times today, we might end up getting the worst of both worlds.
One scenario has the Angels either shelling out millions and millions of dollars for Japanese phenom Daisuke Matsuzaka or millions for Barry Zito, and then making one of the Ervin-Jered-Saunders troika the centerpiece of a trade for Tejada, A-Rod, or Vernon Wells. Such a move could provide a marginal improvement in the short term, but it would cost a lot more in money and would also mortgage our future for immediate gains. Both Ervin and Jered are likely to have more future remaining value than Zito, for instance, and while Joe Saunders doesn't quite have their upside, he's important insurance against an injury to a rotation starter.
Other pondered moves would include going after Alfonso Soriano, who will be 31 next season, is coming off of his best year ever and will likely be overpaid as a result, and hasn't ever played center field, or Gary Matthews Jr., who's even older and never had a good year until last season. I would guess his chances of repeating his 2006 performance are rather slim.
I still Vernon Wells is the best match of anyone we're talking about; sure, adding a guy like Tejada or A-Rod would be great for the offense, but it would cost us a lot in money and pitching depth. Wells is a lesser hitter, but an excellent defender, and the youngest position player discussed in this post. He would probably cost less than the other guys in terms of who we would have to give up, and provide us benefits on both sides of the ball, so to speak
Labels: Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Barry Zito, Ervin Santana, Gary Matthews Jr, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Miguel Tejada, Vernon Wells
Monday, October 09, 2006
THE OUTFIELD
A couple of weeks ago I discussed the Angel infield; let's look to the outfield and designated hitter.
What was supposed to happen: Garret would stay healthy and bounce back a bit, Darin Erstad would play great defense and ground out to second for a few weeks before getting injured and being replaced by Legs Figgins, and Vlad would be Vlad. Juan Rivera would see time at DH and covering the corners, and even fill in some in center against lefty pitchers.
What happened: Garret stayed dinged up and mediocre, Figgins hit 30 points less than his career average, Vlad did his Vlad thing, and Rivera had a career year.
Where we go from here: Look, we're basically stuck with Garret in left field and/or DH. Mike Scioscia finally began to warm up to the idea that Juan Rivera is a better defender than Garret, and has a better arm. Sure, Garret is more surehanded (he didn't make an error last year), but Rivera gets to more balls (.854 to .844 in zone rating last year, .917 to .864 the year before) and has a better arm (Rivera had 7 assists from left last year to Garret's 1, playing in only around 60% of the innings of his senior). Garret's contract will preclude him from being moved anywhere, to he's all ours.
You're also going to have to get used to having Vlad in the lineup. I know that will be hard for us, but such is life. The only real flaw in his game, last year, anyway, was his defense; Vlad committed 11 errors, mostly the result of lapses of concentration. Mike Scioscia believes that he was dropping balls because of gimpy knees, making it hard to see the ball well while running. There is probably truth to this, and Vlad should be seeing more time at DH to give his body a break. Despite his bad instincts, his athleticism has made him average defender in years past, so I would expect something of a bounce-back in this regard in 2007.
Center field, of course, brings us big questions, and is intimately tied to the third base situation. It doesn't seem unlikely that the Angels will get either a third baseman or center fielder and install The Legs at the complementary position.
The options at center field, at this time, are questionable. Torii Hunter has a good shot at being a free agent, but he's on the wrong side of 30, is starting to suffer the attendant decline in defense, and his offense is solid but unspectacular. He's coming off his best offensive season since 2002, but there is little reason to believe his next four years will be as good as his last four. He'll likely demand a contract in the $10M per year range, which may be too much.
There is, theoretically, the possibility of trading for Vernon Wells. Wells has one year left on his contract with Toronto, so is financially cheap. He's a solid defensive player, though his offense is also something of a question mark; he was terrific in 2003 and 2006, but just a bit above average in the two years in between.
Of course, the Blue Jays, coming off a second-place finish and looking at two perennial giants who seem to be teetering on chaos in New York and Boston, may not be too thrilled with the idea of trading one of their key players. However, Alexis Rios, who had a breakthrough season with the bat last season, could be a candidate to be moved to center if Wells were dispatched. Juan Rivera might be an essential piece of such a trade so as to replace Rios, though the Jays would likely require a prospect as well. Their middle infield situation is a bit sticky (Aaron Hill can play second or short), so maybe Erick Aybar would sweeten the pot, though I worry that might be too much, so perhaps the Jays would throw in a lower-level prospect to even things up.
Otherwise, we may see Aramis Ramirez signed at third base. Other alleged third base candidates would come via trade, such as Joe Crede (pass), Mark Teahen (intriguing), Miguel Tejada (any talk of moving The OC to third to accommodate him, however, is utter madness), and even A-Rod (a great idea, in a vacuum).
It's difficult to evaluate any potential move without knowing the costs, so I will not do so here. Alex Rodriguez, for example, would be a great addition, but with his salary and the players that might be demanded of us to get him, would he be a good acquisition? That's an entirely different question.
If the Jays are willing to move him, I think the most exciting possibility is Vernon Wells. If not, I think we'd be best-served to upgrade the third base position. Of course, things will change as the off-season progresses.
A couple of weeks ago I discussed the Angel infield; let's look to the outfield and designated hitter.
What was supposed to happen: Garret would stay healthy and bounce back a bit, Darin Erstad would play great defense and ground out to second for a few weeks before getting injured and being replaced by Legs Figgins, and Vlad would be Vlad. Juan Rivera would see time at DH and covering the corners, and even fill in some in center against lefty pitchers.
What happened: Garret stayed dinged up and mediocre, Figgins hit 30 points less than his career average, Vlad did his Vlad thing, and Rivera had a career year.
Where we go from here: Look, we're basically stuck with Garret in left field and/or DH. Mike Scioscia finally began to warm up to the idea that Juan Rivera is a better defender than Garret, and has a better arm. Sure, Garret is more surehanded (he didn't make an error last year), but Rivera gets to more balls (.854 to .844 in zone rating last year, .917 to .864 the year before) and has a better arm (Rivera had 7 assists from left last year to Garret's 1, playing in only around 60% of the innings of his senior). Garret's contract will preclude him from being moved anywhere, to he's all ours.
You're also going to have to get used to having Vlad in the lineup. I know that will be hard for us, but such is life. The only real flaw in his game, last year, anyway, was his defense; Vlad committed 11 errors, mostly the result of lapses of concentration. Mike Scioscia believes that he was dropping balls because of gimpy knees, making it hard to see the ball well while running. There is probably truth to this, and Vlad should be seeing more time at DH to give his body a break. Despite his bad instincts, his athleticism has made him average defender in years past, so I would expect something of a bounce-back in this regard in 2007.
Center field, of course, brings us big questions, and is intimately tied to the third base situation. It doesn't seem unlikely that the Angels will get either a third baseman or center fielder and install The Legs at the complementary position.
The options at center field, at this time, are questionable. Torii Hunter has a good shot at being a free agent, but he's on the wrong side of 30, is starting to suffer the attendant decline in defense, and his offense is solid but unspectacular. He's coming off his best offensive season since 2002, but there is little reason to believe his next four years will be as good as his last four. He'll likely demand a contract in the $10M per year range, which may be too much.
There is, theoretically, the possibility of trading for Vernon Wells. Wells has one year left on his contract with Toronto, so is financially cheap. He's a solid defensive player, though his offense is also something of a question mark; he was terrific in 2003 and 2006, but just a bit above average in the two years in between.
Of course, the Blue Jays, coming off a second-place finish and looking at two perennial giants who seem to be teetering on chaos in New York and Boston, may not be too thrilled with the idea of trading one of their key players. However, Alexis Rios, who had a breakthrough season with the bat last season, could be a candidate to be moved to center if Wells were dispatched. Juan Rivera might be an essential piece of such a trade so as to replace Rios, though the Jays would likely require a prospect as well. Their middle infield situation is a bit sticky (Aaron Hill can play second or short), so maybe Erick Aybar would sweeten the pot, though I worry that might be too much, so perhaps the Jays would throw in a lower-level prospect to even things up.
Otherwise, we may see Aramis Ramirez signed at third base. Other alleged third base candidates would come via trade, such as Joe Crede (pass), Mark Teahen (intriguing), Miguel Tejada (any talk of moving The OC to third to accommodate him, however, is utter madness), and even A-Rod (a great idea, in a vacuum).
It's difficult to evaluate any potential move without knowing the costs, so I will not do so here. Alex Rodriguez, for example, would be a great addition, but with his salary and the players that might be demanded of us to get him, would he be a good acquisition? That's an entirely different question.
If the Jays are willing to move him, I think the most exciting possibility is Vernon Wells. If not, I think we'd be best-served to upgrade the third base position. Of course, things will change as the off-season progresses.
Labels: Alex Rodriguez, Aramis Ramirez, Darin Erstad, Eric k Aybar, fielding, Garret Anderson, Joe Crede, Juan Rivera, Legs Figgins, Mark Teahen, Miguel Tejada, Vernon Wells, Vladimir Guerrero
