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Tuesday, September 25, 2007

WATCH LIST SUMMARY 

Here is the last update.

The BB-Ref organizational stats are linked in the POSITION and PITCHER headers.

Thanks to these park factors provided by Dan Szymborski, I've included season-ending OPS+ and park-adjusted batting runs (a linear weights determination of how many runs each batter created above average) for each player. I also did ERA+ and pitching runs (how many earned runs each pitcher prevented) for the pitchers.


POSITION PLAYERS

Michael Collins, 1B, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BR
Now 429 104 18 3 5 12 70 5 4 242 286 333 70 -20
8/24 394 98 17 3 5 11 65 5 4 249 292 345
7/24 296 66 14 1 3 8 52 5 4 223 269 307
6/26 229 44 12 1 2 5 45 4 2 192 241 279
5/21 127 17 7 0 1 2 25 0 1 136 194 216
5/1 75 12 2 0 1 2 16 0 1 160 203 227
Collins had a relatively good August, but obviously didn't do anything to put himself into the organization's first base picture.


Hank Conger, C, A Cedar Rapids, BB/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BR
Now 290 84 20 0 11 21 48 9 4 290 336 472 134 +12
8/24 262 73 17 0 9 19 45 9 4 279 329 447
7/24 213 60 16 0 8 16 41 7 3 282 336 469
6/26 213 60 16 0 8 16 41 7 3 282 336 469
5/21 123 32 6 0 6 8 16 6 0 260 311 455
5/1 68 18 2 0 3 4 8 4 0 265 306 426
Hank had some injury troubles, but clearly had no trouble hitting when healthy and in the lineup. The only better hitter we had at Cedar Rapids, both in terms of OPS+ and BR, was Christopher Pettit, whom we'll see below.


Terry Evans, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BR
Now 475 150 40 4 15 26 119 24 9 316 352 512 112 +10
8/24 439 138 37 4 14 21 110 22 9 314 347 513
7/24 341 106 28 3 13 12 87 15 6 311 334 525
6/26 260 86 23 3 11 11 60 13 6 331 358 569
5/21 156 50 13 3 6 9 42 11 4 321 355 558
Terry Evans ended up being a solid producer for AAA, but at age 25, didn't really do much of anything to make it look like he's going to make us regret the Gary Matthews Jr. signing. Could he even be a Juan Rivera fourth outfielder type? He has a good glove, and speed, but he'll need to get that strike zone under control to be that guy. The defense and speed do put him ahead of this guy at the same age, though:


Nick Gorneault, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BR
Now 471 123 24 1 19 58 108 17 8 261 346 437 95 - 3
8/24 433 107 20 1 16 56 103 16 6 247 337 409
7/24 341 80 17 0 12 41 83 12 4 235 322 390
6/26 276 60 12 0 9 35 63 11 3 217 310 359
5/21 151 36 10 0 3 18 34 8 2 238 327 364
5/1 81 15 4 0 3 9 17 5 2 185 283 346
Nick finished strong over the past few months but, as you see, didn't even manage to be an above-average performer at his level. I do think he's better than this, but I don't think there's any room for him in this organization from here on out.


Christopher Pettit, LF, A+ Rancho Cucamonga and A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BR
Now 265 82 20 2 9 36 48 13 3 309 395 502 133 +15
Now 235 76 18 1 9 29 40 12 2 323 403 523
7/24 124 44 8 1 8 16 23 9 2 355 433 629
6/26 22 2 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 091 130 091
228 79 24 1 9 23 41 17 4 346 429 579 192 +30 Cedar Rapids
Late-season slump accounted for, I think Pettit was definitely our system's Position Player of the Year. He led both of his minor league teams in OPS+ and BR, stole bases, showed versatility by getting a lot of time in center in addition to left, and the only guy in the organization with more doubles is Vladimir Guerrero. A very nice first full season for the local product.


Sean Rodriguez, SS, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BR
Now 508 129 31 2 17 54 132 15 8 254 345 423 113 + 9
8/24 468 116 30 2 13 48 126 13 7 248 339 404
7/24 371 93 24 1 11 35 99 11 6 251 338 410
6/26 278 71 17 1 10 28 76 9 4 255 350 432
5/23 143 36 9 0 6 19 35 6 3 252 374 441
5/1 81 25 6 0 4 12 21 3 3 309 423 531
I've been a Sean Rodriguez supporter for awhile, mostly because any Angel prospect who controls the strike zone at even the lowest levels, and shows pop, is pretty rare. Rodriguez did hold his own at AA, but the Travelers saw better offensive seasons from third baseman Freddy Sandoval (see below) and second-sacker Adam Morrissey. Of course, S-Rod is two years younger than the former and four years younger the latter, and at 22 years of age is young for his competition. The new Arkansas park helped pitchers and killed home runs, so his raw stats are a bit better than they look, but Sean didn't really separate himself from the pack this year. That said, he's still quite young, and still a plus hitter at a premium defensive position.


Mark Trumbo, 1B, A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BR
Now 471 128 27 2 14 34 98 10 8 272 326 427 118 + 8
Now 443 117 25 2 13 28 84 10 8 270 318 427
7/24 340 97 20 2 9 23 73 10 5 285 334 435
6/26 242 68 16 1 7 16 53 3 4 281 327 442
5/23 117 27 6 0 3 5 30 1 2 231 266 359
5/1 49 10 1 0 1 2 16 0 2 204 245 286
Mark Trumbo improved markedly in his second year in the Midwest League. Yes, he lost some walks, but also cut his strikeouts (one less K, but in over 40 less at-bats) and managed to hit for average (the league as a whole hit .255). The jump to the High-A Cal League next year may be a challenge, but it's also an opportunity for Trumbo to have a breakout year.


Brandon Wood, SS, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BR
Now 437 119 27 1 23 45 120 10 1 272 338 497 106 + 7
8/24 397 105 21 1 20 43 109 10 1 264 335 474
7/24 313 82 18 1 16 39 80 8 1 262 343 479
6/26 254 68 18 1 13 34 69 8 1 268 355 500
5/23 131 31 8 0 5 18 38 3 0 237 331 412
5/1 84 22 6 0 3 11 28 2 0 262 351 440
I've mentioned this before, but right now Brandon projects as a good-fielding Dean Palmer plus a reasonable number of walks. I guess I can understand an "is that all there is?" reaction to that, but he's by far the youngest regular we had at AAA, and I think another year there will really help him harness his abilities. Right now, he's a .200 hitter in the major leagues, but with the pop of which he's capable and a decent grasp of the strike zone, he can be at least an adequate player by getting that up around .240 or so. I think he can do it, but I don't know that the results will be immediate.


Watch Out:
Who       Lvl  AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BR
Bourjos A 237 65 9 6 5 20 53 19 9 269 323 404 120 + 6
ClyFuller Azl 183 55 10 4 5 24 52 21 6 301 398 481
Mount A 303 76 11 3 7 29 70 19 6 251 320 376 103 + 2
Ortiz Azl 71 21 4 0 0 6 17 5 2 296 346 352
Peel AA 310 79 20 2 7 6 43 2 0 255 284 400 88 - 6
Phillips A 436 107 11 8 13 15 154 34 4 245 283 397 96 + 0
Rivera has not played
Sandoval AA 472 144 32 6 11 67 78 21 11 305 392 468 137 +26
Statia A+ 549 158 27 7 3 48 79 29 8 288 344 379 86 - 6
Sweeney A 439 114 29 2 18 38 88 7 7 260 324 458 127 +12
Peter Bourjos had some injury troubles over the course of the year, but his strikeouts-to-walk ratio needs to improve. Clay Fuller had a fine debute in the Arizona League. Ryan Mount also struggled with injury, and never got in a groove upon coming back. Norberto Ortiz started off hot but was in the same boat, missing time and not being in sync upon his return. Aaron Peel didn't follow up on what could have been a breakthrough 2006. P.J. Phillips strikes out more than you can imagine, but does well when he hits the ball and once he's on base. Can he fix his problems? Luis Rivera never played. Freddy Sandoval was Arkansas' best player. Hainley Statia is another guy who fell off after a good 2006; at the same age, Erick Aybar was more than holding his own with a .303 average at AA. Matthew Sweeney ranked third on his team in OPS+ and led in home runs.


PITCHERS

Nick Adenhart, RHSP, AA Arkansas
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA ERA+ PR
Now 10 8 0 26 26 153.0 158 7 116 65 3.65 112 + 8
8/24 9 7 0 24 24 142.0 143 7 106 61 3.74
7/24 7 3 0 18 18 107.0 112 4 78 43 3.36
6/26 6 2 0 14 14 83.7 87 4 61 37 3.46
5/23 3 2 0 8 8 47.3 43 0 35 21 2.68
5/1 3 1 0 5 5 33.7 24 0 27 10 0.80
The only worry here is the strikeouts; Adenhart was a bit below average in a park that should have helped him. But with his age and groundball tendencies, I think there's a lot to be excited about. Just stay healthy, kid.


Jose Arredondo, RHSP, AAA Salt Lake, AA Arkansas, and A+ Rancho Cucamonga
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA ERA+ PR
Now 0 0 0 2 0 3.0 2 0 1 2 3.00 162 + 1 AAA
Now 2 4 4 28 0 35.0 46 5 34 11 6.43 75 - 6 A+
8/24 2 4 4 27 0 34.0 44 4 33 11 6.09
7/24 0 2 2 15 0 16.0 24 3 13 6 9.56
6/26 0 0 2 4 0 3.7 7 0 5 4 18.90
6/26 0 1 10 23 0 25.0 16 2 28 12 2.52 162 + 5 AA
5/23 0 1 6 16 0 19.0 12 2 22 10 3.32
5/1 0 1 2 8 0 11.0 8 1 14 5 1.64
A weird season; Arredondo was doing very well at AA, but a tantrum on the mound when being removed from a game led to a demotion to the Cal League, where he stuck up the joint for awhile, then finally came on, and came up to the AAA club to help their postseason run. Physically, I'd imagine he's ready for AAA next year. Emotionally? I have no idea.

Gustavo Espinoza, LHRP, Arizona League
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now 0 0 0 2 0 1.3 0 0 3 1 6.75
Hey, at least he's pitching again.


Stephen Marek, RHSP, A Rancho Cucamonga
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA ERA+ PR
Now 8 10 0 25 25 134.0 133 17 106 49 4.30 112 + 8
8/24 8 9 0 23 23 121.0 123 15 95 45 4.61
7/24 5 7 0 17 17 89.0 91 10 70 35 4.75
6/26 5 4 0 13 13 69.7 64 5 56 30 4.02
5/23 3 2 0 7 7 38.7 34 2 23 15 3.52
5/1 1 0 0 3 3 15.0 12 1 7 6 2.40
Some up and down in Marek's season. His peripherals aren't dominating, and he was actually outperformed by 21-year-old Anthony Ortega at the same level. Ortega kinda snuck up on me, so I'll take a closer look at him for next year. None of our starters at Rancho this year had knockout peripherals, it seems; Brok Butcher led the team in pitching runs, but managed only 59 K's in 110 innings, and then struggled mightily at the next level.


Tommy Mendoza, A Cedar Rapids, RHSP
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA ERA+ PR
Now 2 4 0 12 11 53.7 67 5 38 16 4.89 75 - 8
8/24 2 4 0 10 9 44.0 54 5 30 13 4.30
7/24 0 3 0 4 3 12.3 18 4 11 6 9.00
Mendoza started late due to injury, and never really got his feet under him. This season didn't tell us anything about him. Hopefully he can stay healthy and develop more next year.


Darren O'Day, RHRP, AA Arkansas and A+ Rancho Cucamonga
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA ERA+ PR
Now 3 4 10 29 0 29.3 27 3 22 14 4.03 101 + 0 AA
8/24 3 3 7 25 0 25.3 24 2 19 11 3.24
7/24 1 2 0 3 0 13.0 11 1 10 7 2.77
6/26 0 1 0 2 0 2.0 3 0 0 1 4.50
6/26 4 0 0 24 0 24.0 10 1 26 6 0.75 642 +11 A+ Final
Darren O'Day was outrageous in the Cal League, but struggled a bit against the higher competition. As a sidearmer, you'd think he'd be harmed more by lefty hitters than righties, but at AA he actually held lefties to a 224/309/245 line while northpaws managed a 276/377/431. Part of that is attributable to his allowing only a .268 batting average on balls in play to LHB, but I really don't know what the hell's going on; I assume it's a small sample size, as his splits at A+ (a 599 OPS against LHB, but 316 from RHB) makes much more sense.


Sean O'Sullivan, RHSP, A Cedar Rapids
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA ERA+ PR
Now 10 7 0 25 25 158.3 136 6 125 40 2.22 163 +26
8/24 10 6 0 23 23 144.3 122 6 119 38 2.19
7/24 6 5 0 17 17 102.7 94 3 86 27 2.37
6/26 4 5 0 12 12 70.3 76 3 53 19 2.96
5/23 2 3 0 8 8 48.0 56 2 36 13 3.00
5/1 1 2 0 4 4 23.0 26 2 13 6 3.52
By pitching runs, O'Sullivan was our best minor league pitcher in 2007. Only Brok Butcher comes close (+20), though that includes his poor showing at AA. As I mentioned last time, though O'Sullivan's K/9 IP is below his league average (7.11 against 7.66), but he only faces approximately 4.11 guys per inning against the league's 4.33 -- his actual K rate -- per batter faced -- is only approximately 0.5% lower than his league's. Can he keep the hits allowed total low? We'll find out.


Steve Shell, RHSP/RP, AAA Salt Lake
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA ERA+ PR
Now 7 3 0 31 7 70.3 83 15 52 19 4.76 104 + 2
8/24 6 3 0 29 6 61.3 76 15 44 18 5.46
7/24 4 3 0 21 4 45.0 56 12 35 14 5.60
6/26 4 1 0 14 3 31.0 39 7 23 11 4.94
5/23 1 0 0 5 1 12.0 18 3 4 2 3.75
5/1 0 0 0 2 1 7.0 9 1 3 1 1.29
A good example of the kind of environment our AAA team has, Shell's 4.76 ERA is better than the league average, once you adjust for park. He also had 13 good innings at AA, but he really seems to have fallen off the radar, and barely-above-average performance, mostly from the pen, isn't going to set off anyone's alarms.


Rich Thompson, RHRP, AAA Salt Lake and AA Arkansas
When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA ERA+ PR
Now 3 0 1 16 0 24.7 17 2 32 6 2.22 230 + 7 AAA
8/24 3 0 1 14 0 22.3 15 2 29 3 2.05
7/24 1 0 0 4 0 7.7 6 0 12 2 1.23
7/24 2 3 0 21 3 49.3 34 5 50 14 2.02 203 +12 AA
6/26 1 3 0 19 3 44.3 32 5 46 12 2.25
Rich Thompson led both his AA and AAA teams in pitching runs. He hasn't been as keen in his irregular appearances in the majors, so my dreams of a K-Rodesque rise have been dashed. Still have you noticed that he gives up runs when stretched? In his second outing, he threw two-thirds of an inning, then struggled the next inning. In his fifth, he pitched an inning and a third before giving up a run. He's pretty much a one-inning guy right now, it looks like.


Watch Out:
Who       Lvl  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA ERA+ PR
Bell A 8 4 0 21 21 115.3 136 8 90 23 4.15 87 - 7
Bulger AAA 5 2 10 49 0 52.7 51 4 81 24 3.78 133 + 7
Green AA 10 8 0 28 28 178.3 164 17 107 32 3.69 111 + 8
Madrigal A 5 4 20 54 0 61.0 44 3 75 23 2.07 176 +11
Rodriguez AA 0 6 0 46 1 71.3 79 6 42 30 4.18 98 - 1
Walden R 1 1 0 15 15 64.3 49 3 63 17 3.75
Young R 0 1 0 3 3 9.0 10 1 9 6 9.00
Trevor Bell finished off the season with two terrific starts; somewhat in opposition to Sean O'Sullivan, the question with Bell next year is whether he will continue to give up so many hits despite good numbers in every other respect. Like Rich Thompson, Jason Bulger has earned a real look for next year's pen. Nick Green was terrific in the late summer, but, like so many of these guys, isn't missing many bats. Warner Madrigal had an exceptional year as Cedar Rapids' closer. Rafael Rodriguez finally got things together, somewhat, near the end of the season. Jordan Walden finished very strong, not walking anyone in his last 15 innings, and making an overall great debut. Young Il-Jung has been shut down due to injury.

A few random notes ... aside from Anthony Ortega, one guy who really jumped at me was Aaron Cook. He was solid (12 K to 4 BB, 4.15 ERA) in 13 innings in the Cal League after striking out 20 to only 1 walk (and a 0.81) ERA in just over 30 innings at Cedar Rapids. He's apparently another submariner, so that could be interesting ... Miguel Gonzalez also got good results at AA without great peripherals ... Robert Fish will definitely be on this list next year, as he performed very well (3.28 ERA, 77:31 SO:BB in 71.67 IP) for Tom Kotchman at Orem ... we'll also watch out for lefty reliever Douglas Brandt, who performed well at different levels ...

... 1B Christopher Garcia, 19 years old, played in only 20 games in the Arizona League, but managed 21 walks to 17 strikeouts and put up a 333/480/474 line. He's another Tom Kotchman Florida find; he played with Orem a bit, too, though not with as much success (10 BB to 21 K in 23 games) ... the top 10 Angel minor leaguers by batting runs and pitching runs, combined at all levels:
Pos  Player              Level   Runs
OF Christopher Pettit A,A+ 37.5
3B Freddy Sandoval AA 26.0
SP Sean O'Sullivan A 25.7
RP Rich Thompson A+,AA,AAA 20.3
SP Brok Butcher A+,AA 20.0
OF Nathan Haynes AAA 16.1
SP Anthony Ortega A+ 14.3
RP Douglas Brandt A,A+,AAA 13.5
2B Adam Morrissey AA 12.1
3B Matthew Sweeney A 12.3

***
(Technical note on the offensive linear weights [feel free to skip]: what I did was apply the factors to each element, not apply a single run factor at the end of the process; there are no factors for triples, but that shouldn't be a big deal. Meaning, if a park inflates HR by 5% but deflates run-scoring as a whole by 2%, I adjusted the HR first and then added up the batting runs, instead of determining the total runs and using the run-scoring factor on that. As we're talking about minor leaguers, I thought it would be more instructive to do it that way, even though there's very little difference once it's all said and done.)

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Comments:
I assume Freddy Sandoval is a bit old for his league. Any chance he'll turn into a major leaguer?
 
By the way, I heard Fish pitch on the radio several times for Orem and the announcers were always very impressed with him. Wish I had a chance to go out to the park and see him this year.
 
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