Thursday, January 25, 2007
I AM BACK, I THINK
Hello.
As you may have noticed, I haven't been entirely active here lately. The basic reason is that nothing has happened in the last month, so I haven't had anything on which to opine.
In past offseasons, I've actually had plans and done series of things during the winter, but this time I came in flying blind, so when nothing happened, I had nothing to say. And when you get in the habit of not-posting, that begets more and more not-posting, and momentum just takes you away from everything.
Well, pitchers and catchers report back in just a few weeks, so I might as well report back, too.
There have only been a couple of Angel-related items in the last month -- one, that Dallas McPherson may miss the whole year due to injury, and two, that Darin Erstad has signed with the Chicago White Sox.
Neither of these stories have much impact on the Angels; McPherson's back problems were already such that it never occurred to me that he would be a key part of the club this year, and The Punter's departure was even more expected.
But I wanted to chime in and let everyone know that I'm back; I should hopefully have some items of interest up next week. I want to look at Gary Matthews Jr.'s breakthrough/fluke 2006 and see how repeatable it might be, so that will hopefully transpire. I also want to look at Mike Scioscia's sacrifice bunts called in 2006, and see how they either helped or hurt the team's chances of winning.
I don't know what, if anything, I'll conclude about those two things, but hopefully I'll do so next week.
As for the end of this post, I will leave you, for old times' sake, with this link to Darin Erstad's final groundouts to second base in his Angel career, courtesy Baseball-Reference's shockingly awesome Play Index.
Hello.
As you may have noticed, I haven't been entirely active here lately. The basic reason is that nothing has happened in the last month, so I haven't had anything on which to opine.
In past offseasons, I've actually had plans and done series of things during the winter, but this time I came in flying blind, so when nothing happened, I had nothing to say. And when you get in the habit of not-posting, that begets more and more not-posting, and momentum just takes you away from everything.
Well, pitchers and catchers report back in just a few weeks, so I might as well report back, too.
There have only been a couple of Angel-related items in the last month -- one, that Dallas McPherson may miss the whole year due to injury, and two, that Darin Erstad has signed with the Chicago White Sox.
Neither of these stories have much impact on the Angels; McPherson's back problems were already such that it never occurred to me that he would be a key part of the club this year, and The Punter's departure was even more expected.
But I wanted to chime in and let everyone know that I'm back; I should hopefully have some items of interest up next week. I want to look at Gary Matthews Jr.'s breakthrough/fluke 2006 and see how repeatable it might be, so that will hopefully transpire. I also want to look at Mike Scioscia's sacrifice bunts called in 2006, and see how they either helped or hurt the team's chances of winning.
I don't know what, if anything, I'll conclude about those two things, but hopefully I'll do so next week.
As for the end of this post, I will leave you, for old times' sake, with this link to Darin Erstad's final groundouts to second base in his Angel career, courtesy Baseball-Reference's shockingly awesome Play Index.
Labels: Dallas McPherson, Darin Erstad
Tuesday, December 26, 2006
THE LEDGE
Well, we have signed Shea Hillenbrand to be our DH.
This is Juan Rivera insurance. Rivera will be undergoing surgery for his broken leg and we still don't know how long he'll be out.
What would the difference between Hillenbrand and Rivera be, over a full season (say, 600 plate appearances)?
RubenJuan and Hillenbrand is close to a win, maybe a bit more. Remember, however, that's just looking at the offense. There's another cost here, and that's on defense; Juan Rivera figured to get a lot of time on the corner outfield positions, giving Garret and Vlad rests, while providing a defensive advantage while filling in for either of them. That's gonna cost us some runs, as well.
Hillenbrand at DH also means that one of Legs Figgins and Dallas McPherson won't be in the starting lineup. I'd guess The Legs will take the hot corner and Big D will take the bench or another trip to Salt Lake.
And while you don't sign a guy to a $6.5M contract to be a platoon player, Hillenbrand does have a, um, 106 career OPS+ against southpaws, while McPherson has a 112 mark off of righties in his young career.
Let me take a step back here ...
... Shea Hillenbrand isn't an awful player. He's mediocre. He's an average hitter, not a very good fielder, durable. Blah blah blah. But he's a guy that's overrated due to his batting average. His .287 looks respectable, but if you adjust his league averages for his parks, the average is .271. Juan Rivera's .291 average is up against a park-adjusted league average of .265.
And Hillenbrand's average is pretty empty. He doesn't have exception power and never draws a walk. And what bothers me is that the Angels don't seem to understand than an empty batting average isn't really all that helpful to anyone.
Now, I do recognize that we're only getting Hillenbrand because of the Rivera situation, but he's a guy we've been rumored to be interested in for awhile, and we all know he's a guy who hacks and gets singles. If you hack and hit like Vlad, that's okay. But Hillenbrand has never been a difference-maker for anybody, and now he's on the bad side of 30. He's a finger in the dam, but we should all hope that Rivera can be healthy and productive sooner than later.
Well, we have signed Shea Hillenbrand to be our DH.
This is Juan Rivera insurance. Rivera will be undergoing surgery for his broken leg and we still don't know how long he'll be out.
What would the difference between Hillenbrand and Rivera be, over a full season (say, 600 plate appearances)?
Batting Runs Above AverageOver a full season, it looks like the difference between
per 600 PA
Rivera Shea
2003 + 1 -6
2004 +14 +5
2005 - 3 +6
2006 +23 -8
Average + 9 -1
Wtd Avg +12 -1
Hillenbrand at DH also means that one of Legs Figgins and Dallas McPherson won't be in the starting lineup. I'd guess The Legs will take the hot corner and Big D will take the bench or another trip to Salt Lake.
And while you don't sign a guy to a $6.5M contract to be a platoon player, Hillenbrand does have a, um, 106 career OPS+ against southpaws, while McPherson has a 112 mark off of righties in his young career.
Let me take a step back here ...
... Shea Hillenbrand isn't an awful player. He's mediocre. He's an average hitter, not a very good fielder, durable. Blah blah blah. But he's a guy that's overrated due to his batting average. His .287 looks respectable, but if you adjust his league averages for his parks, the average is .271. Juan Rivera's .291 average is up against a park-adjusted league average of .265.
And Hillenbrand's average is pretty empty. He doesn't have exception power and never draws a walk. And what bothers me is that the Angels don't seem to understand than an empty batting average isn't really all that helpful to anyone.
Now, I do recognize that we're only getting Hillenbrand because of the Rivera situation, but he's a guy we've been rumored to be interested in for awhile, and we all know he's a guy who hacks and gets singles. If you hack and hit like Vlad, that's okay. But Hillenbrand has never been a difference-maker for anybody, and now he's on the bad side of 30. He's a finger in the dam, but we should all hope that Rivera can be healthy and productive sooner than later.
Labels: a real bummer, Dallas McPherson, empty batting average, Garret Anderson, hacktastic offense, Juan Rivera, Legs Figgins, Shea Hillenbrand, Vladimir Guerrero
