Tuesday, November 06, 2007
AN ALTERNATIVE PRESENTS ITSELF
Over the past couple of weeks, I've been posting about the possibility of the Angels acquiring Alex Rodriguez. Recent developments, long-rumored, present us with another potential option for improving the Angel offense.
The Florida Marlins are reportedly willing to put Miguel Cabrera on the market.
Miguel Cabrera is a young hitter of astonishing quality and achievement. He doesn't turn 25 until April; here are some stats of Cabrera and two other hitters through the age of 24:
Player B is Frank Robinson.
There are, however, certain negatives to Cabrera:
1. His defense.
By all accounts, both anecdotal and statistical, Cabrera is a bad third baseman. Per the Baseball Info Solutions data at the Hardball Times, he was approximately 15 plays below the league average on balls in his zone last year, worth over 10 runs (he also had an unexceptional total of plays made outside of his zone, though this doesn't necessarily mean anything). He was approximately -8 plays, or around -6 runs, below average in 2006.
2. His conditioning.
Miguel Cabrera is progressively becoming a fatter and fatter bastard. This bodes ill for his conditioning, long-term health, and his ability to play defense and run the bases.
3. He will cost a fortune -- in players.
The Marlins are allegedly seeking a young third baseman, a young pitcher, and a center fielder.
It just so happens that the Angels can offer such a package: Brandon Wood, one of Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana, and -- though he may be older than what the Marlins are looking for -- Chone Figgins.
This is a steep price, even for a hitter of Cabrera's talents. But while Brandon Wood is looking like the next Dean Palmer (not a bad thing with good glove at either of his potential positions), Cabrera is a sure bet.
Of course, trading one of Saunders and Santana would mean we'd have to go out and get a starting pitcher. Intriguingly, Florida is also looking to shop Dontrelle Willis. Would Florida accept a package of Wood, Saunders/Santana, Figgins, and maybe one more mid-level prospect (not Adenhart) for Cabrera and Willis? I suspect they'd think about it. Should the Angels?
Let's break this down:
- Is Miguel Cabrera a step up from Brandon Wood? Almost certainly.
- With Reggie Willits around to caddy Gary Matthews Jr and Garret Anderson, with the payroll flexibility to bring Juan Rivera back to support the corners, and with Maicer Izturis providing roughly league-average production as a infield backup, is Chone Figgins expendable? I like the guy, and he's coming off a big year, but I can't help but answer "yes".
- Is giving up one of Saunders and Santana and getting Willits an upgrade or downgrade, and if it's the latter, is it enough to negate the improvement made by adding Cabrera to the lineup?
By BB-Ref's linear weights figures, Cabrera has been +46.3, +56.6, and +45.7 runs above average, offensively, in each of the last three years; he's a good bet to be +50 or so in the next couple of years. Dock 10 runs for his D, he's still a +40 player, roughly 4 wins above average. Chone Figgins, whom Cabrera would be replacing in the lineup, over the past three years has been +1.8, -13.4, and +13.4 (these figures include basestealing, but not other baserunning). Even with his defense, I'd guess that Figgins in 2008 projects to be roughly average, maybe just a bit above.
So we're looking at maybe a 35-40-run difference between Cabrera and Figgins.
It is obvious that the difference, in the short term, between Saunders/Santana and Willits will be far less than 40 runs. Let's look at their totals the past four years, which of course for the Halos is only a couple of years (PR is Pitching Runs, or Earned Runs Prevented Above Average):
I'll spare you the details, but looking at Willis' batted-ball stats, we can see that he allowed home runs more frequently last year on flyballs than at most other points in his career, which could have been a big part of his struggles. Whether or not that's a fluky thing or a sign of a change in his skill level, I don't know. If he's healthy, I have trouble believing that he just forgot how to pitch or something.
My preference would be to only give up Wood and Figgins -- that does open a shortstop hole in 2009, but we don't know that Wood would fill it, anyway, though if we still have him in 2008 I'd love for him to return to that position at AAA -- for Cabrera. I think there's a good chance that both of Saunders and Santana will be at least as productive (and cheaper) than Willis in the next few years (based on their component stats and relative ages), so I don't know that I'd like to exchange one of them. But I can see talks moving in that direction, and, despite the money, Willis is probably a solid bet to shore up the bottom of the rotation.
As for the question of Cabrera vis-a-vis A-Rod, the question is really "What are we more willing to part with -- players or money?" I don't know what Arte's answer to this would be. From a roster construction standpoint, the ideal would be to sign A-Rod and hold on to all our chips; Wood can be bred for short, Saunders and Santana can develop, and we still have Figgins to play or be traded for a pitcher if we don't trust in the tykes.
Even re-signing Cabrera and/or Willis in future years would likely cost less (combined) than A-Rod would -- though of course that's a few years down the road -- so that's obviously a more cost-effective solution in terms of dollars (though adding a shortstop to the payroll -- or re-signing Orlando Cabrera -- in lieu of the bargain Wood is another financial cost to consider in that scenario).
I do think these are the best two alternatives of which we're aware; there is occasional talk of Miguel Tejada, but Tejada's on the wrong side of 30 and is not a hitter of the caliber of either Rodriguez or Miggy, and may well demand a package of similar value (to the Cabrera package) in exchange.
So, money or players? I don't know.
The Florida Marlins are reportedly willing to put Miguel Cabrera on the market.
Miguel Cabrera is a young hitter of astonishing quality and achievement. He doesn't turn 25 until April; here are some stats of Cabrera and two other hitters through the age of 24:
Player PA OPS+ HR AVG OBP SLGPlayer A is Hank Aaron.
Player A 3173 145 140 .316 .365 .543
Cabrera 3072 143 138 .313 .388 .542
Player B 3156 142 165 .298 .380 .552
Player B is Frank Robinson.
There are, however, certain negatives to Cabrera:
1. His defense.
By all accounts, both anecdotal and statistical, Cabrera is a bad third baseman. Per the Baseball Info Solutions data at the Hardball Times, he was approximately 15 plays below the league average on balls in his zone last year, worth over 10 runs (he also had an unexceptional total of plays made outside of his zone, though this doesn't necessarily mean anything). He was approximately -8 plays, or around -6 runs, below average in 2006.
2. His conditioning.
Miguel Cabrera is progressively becoming a fatter and fatter bastard. This bodes ill for his conditioning, long-term health, and his ability to play defense and run the bases.
3. He will cost a fortune -- in players.
The Marlins are allegedly seeking a young third baseman, a young pitcher, and a center fielder.
It just so happens that the Angels can offer such a package: Brandon Wood, one of Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana, and -- though he may be older than what the Marlins are looking for -- Chone Figgins.
This is a steep price, even for a hitter of Cabrera's talents. But while Brandon Wood is looking like the next Dean Palmer (not a bad thing with good glove at either of his potential positions), Cabrera is a sure bet.
Of course, trading one of Saunders and Santana would mean we'd have to go out and get a starting pitcher. Intriguingly, Florida is also looking to shop Dontrelle Willis. Would Florida accept a package of Wood, Saunders/Santana, Figgins, and maybe one more mid-level prospect (not Adenhart) for Cabrera and Willis? I suspect they'd think about it. Should the Angels?
Let's break this down:
- Is Miguel Cabrera a step up from Brandon Wood? Almost certainly.
- With Reggie Willits around to caddy Gary Matthews Jr and Garret Anderson, with the payroll flexibility to bring Juan Rivera back to support the corners, and with Maicer Izturis providing roughly league-average production as a infield backup, is Chone Figgins expendable? I like the guy, and he's coming off a big year, but I can't help but answer "yes".
- Is giving up one of Saunders and Santana and getting Willits an upgrade or downgrade, and if it's the latter, is it enough to negate the improvement made by adding Cabrera to the lineup?
By BB-Ref's linear weights figures, Cabrera has been +46.3, +56.6, and +45.7 runs above average, offensively, in each of the last three years; he's a good bet to be +50 or so in the next couple of years. Dock 10 runs for his D, he's still a +40 player, roughly 4 wins above average. Chone Figgins, whom Cabrera would be replacing in the lineup, over the past three years has been +1.8, -13.4, and +13.4 (these figures include basestealing, but not other baserunning). Even with his defense, I'd guess that Figgins in 2008 projects to be roughly average, maybe just a bit above.
So we're looking at maybe a 35-40-run difference between Cabrera and Figgins.
It is obvious that the difference, in the short term, between Saunders/Santana and Willits will be far less than 40 runs. Let's look at their totals the past four years, which of course for the Halos is only a couple of years (PR is Pitching Runs, or Earned Runs Prevented Above Average):
Pitcher BF K/BF BB/BF HR/BF H/BF ERA+ PR PR/IPAs you can see, Willis has been better over the past few seasons than the two Angel youths. However, somewhat like Santana, he's coming off a bad season where he pitched well below-average.
Willis 3725 .165 .077 .022 .241 113 +28 +.032
Saunders 816 .152 .082 .025 .257 97 - 3 -.016
Santana 2104 .174 .083 .030 .235 92 -20 -.041
I'll spare you the details, but looking at Willis' batted-ball stats, we can see that he allowed home runs more frequently last year on flyballs than at most other points in his career, which could have been a big part of his struggles. Whether or not that's a fluky thing or a sign of a change in his skill level, I don't know. If he's healthy, I have trouble believing that he just forgot how to pitch or something.
My preference would be to only give up Wood and Figgins -- that does open a shortstop hole in 2009, but we don't know that Wood would fill it, anyway, though if we still have him in 2008 I'd love for him to return to that position at AAA -- for Cabrera. I think there's a good chance that both of Saunders and Santana will be at least as productive (and cheaper) than Willis in the next few years (based on their component stats and relative ages), so I don't know that I'd like to exchange one of them. But I can see talks moving in that direction, and, despite the money, Willis is probably a solid bet to shore up the bottom of the rotation.
As for the question of Cabrera vis-a-vis A-Rod, the question is really "What are we more willing to part with -- players or money?" I don't know what Arte's answer to this would be. From a roster construction standpoint, the ideal would be to sign A-Rod and hold on to all our chips; Wood can be bred for short, Saunders and Santana can develop, and we still have Figgins to play or be traded for a pitcher if we don't trust in the tykes.
Even re-signing Cabrera and/or Willis in future years would likely cost less (combined) than A-Rod would -- though of course that's a few years down the road -- so that's obviously a more cost-effective solution in terms of dollars (though adding a shortstop to the payroll -- or re-signing Orlando Cabrera -- in lieu of the bargain Wood is another financial cost to consider in that scenario).
I do think these are the best two alternatives of which we're aware; there is occasional talk of Miguel Tejada, but Tejada's on the wrong side of 30 and is not a hitter of the caliber of either Rodriguez or Miggy, and may well demand a package of similar value (to the Cabrera package) in exchange.
So, money or players? I don't know.
Labels: Alex Rodriguez, Brandon Wood, Chone Figgins, Dontrelle Willis, Ervin Santana, Garret Anderson, Gary Matthews Jr, Joe Saunders, Juan Rivera, Maicer Izturis, Miguel Cabrera, Miguel Tejada
Thursday, September 27, 2007
GARY
So Gary Matthews Jr is injured, and may or not be available for the postseason. What would this mean for the Angels?
Well, first of all, let's take a look at how Matthews has done this year. As you may recall, there was some handwringing in the Halosphere when Matthews, after having put up the first good offensive season of his life, was signed to a deal that will keep him in Angel red until the year 2011. He did okay in the first two months, hitting 286/339/452 through May (an OPS+ of 111). Along with his solid defense, that was just fine.
But the second half has been nothing but struggles for Matthews, who has hit 211/296/392 since the All Star Game, and hasn't been completely healthy of late. Interestingly, if you add 75 points to that batting average, you get a line of 286/371/467, an improvement on his first half; he actually had more walks and extra-base power in the second half than in the first, but he wasn't getting the hits to fall in.
At any rate, as of now he's got a 98 OPS+, which ranks 10th out of the 21 major league center fielders with 120 or more games. His fielding stats aren't too hot, either.
Here's something simple: how Matthews has done the past few years by average, OBP, and slugging, as compared to the park-adjusted league average, reported by BB-Ref:
Oh, wait, I left out a year:
Without Matthews in the lineup, we could see any and all of these combinations:
Surprisingly (maybe), Maicer Izturis has also out-produced Gary (on a per-plate appearance basis, at any rate) this year, notching an OPS+ of 104. Ztu put up a 106 last year, so it seems like this may actually be his real level of ability. In fact, his last two years resemble each other quite strongly:
All things considered, I'd have to say this team could withstand Gary Matthews Jr's absence during the playoffs. I'm not saying that as a shot at Gary: the fact is this team has succeeded because of uncommon depth. I'll probably write about this sometime, but a lot of things have gone wrong for the Angels this year, but the team has managed to stay in front because of these seemingly endless reservoirs of guys like Willits and Izturis who can step in and perform at an above-average level when someone gets hurt.
I'm actually saddened by the prospect of Gary's being unable to play in October, as he signed with this team to get that shot, and regardless of my skepticism over his contract, he seems like a good guy who has worked hard and given his all, and I'd love to see him contribute. But the reason he can even ponder playing in October is that he's on a team with the foresight and resources to still get there even when nearly everything goes wrong.
Well, first of all, let's take a look at how Matthews has done this year. As you may recall, there was some handwringing in the Halosphere when Matthews, after having put up the first good offensive season of his life, was signed to a deal that will keep him in Angel red until the year 2011. He did okay in the first two months, hitting 286/339/452 through May (an OPS+ of 111). Along with his solid defense, that was just fine.
But the second half has been nothing but struggles for Matthews, who has hit 211/296/392 since the All Star Game, and hasn't been completely healthy of late. Interestingly, if you add 75 points to that batting average, you get a line of 286/371/467, an improvement on his first half; he actually had more walks and extra-base power in the second half than in the first, but he wasn't getting the hits to fall in.
At any rate, as of now he's got a 98 OPS+, which ranks 10th out of the 21 major league center fielders with 120 or more games. His fielding stats aren't too hot, either.
Here's something simple: how Matthews has done the past few years by average, OBP, and slugging, as compared to the park-adjusted league average, reported by BB-Ref:
Year AVG OBP SLGPretty consistent, huh?
2004 -.008 -.013 +.013
2005 -.018 -.016 +.003
2007 -.013 -.009 +.005
Oh, wait, I left out a year:
Year AVG OBP SLGSo, to the surprise of no one, except maybe the Angels, Gary Matthews Jr reverted to being the hitter he was before his "breakout" season; he's an average hitter. No more. No less.
2004 -.008 -.013 +.013
2005 -.018 -.016 +.003
2006 +.033 +.026 +.050
2007 -.013 -.009 +.005
Without Matthews in the lineup, we could see any and all of these combinations:
3B FigginsAs a hitter, Reggie Willits has been a bit better than Matthews so far this year. Willits, like Matthews, has slumped a bit after a hot start, but has still managed to hit 276/377/323 in the second half (not too far off of what I speculated he might do back in May, though I'm happy to say he has maintained his walk rate to a greater degree that I thought he would). By the numbers, his defense in center seems to be worse than Matthews', and this reflect my subjective view of their relative glovework, as well.
CF Willits
RF/DH Vlad/Rivera
3B Izturis
CF Willits
RF/DH Figgins/Vlad
3B Izturis
CF Figgins
RF Vlad/Rivera
Surprisingly (maybe), Maicer Izturis has also out-produced Gary (on a per-plate appearance basis, at any rate) this year, notching an OPS+ of 104. Ztu put up a 106 last year, so it seems like this may actually be his real level of ability. In fact, his last two years resemble each other quite strongly:
Year AVG OBP SLGIzturis might just be a better hitter than Matthews at this point, and seems to be a pretty good defensive option on the hot corner. And while Juan Rivera took some time to adjust, he is hitting 348/375/652 over the last two weeks, so he may be rearing to go, as well.
2006 +.024 +.032 -.016
2007 +.026 +.019 -.006
All things considered, I'd have to say this team could withstand Gary Matthews Jr's absence during the playoffs. I'm not saying that as a shot at Gary: the fact is this team has succeeded because of uncommon depth. I'll probably write about this sometime, but a lot of things have gone wrong for the Angels this year, but the team has managed to stay in front because of these seemingly endless reservoirs of guys like Willits and Izturis who can step in and perform at an above-average level when someone gets hurt.
I'm actually saddened by the prospect of Gary's being unable to play in October, as he signed with this team to get that shot, and regardless of my skepticism over his contract, he seems like a good guy who has worked hard and given his all, and I'd love to see him contribute. But the reason he can even ponder playing in October is that he's on a team with the foresight and resources to still get there even when nearly everything goes wrong.
Labels: Gary Matthews Jr, Juan Rivera, Maicer Izturis, Reggie Willits
Thursday, June 28, 2007
BAD DAYS
So, we got swept by the Royals. That, obviously, is not good.
But you know what? It doesn't mean all that much, in isolation, either. You really think we're going to have a lot of games where we get 10 hits and score no runs?
I don't really have anything to say about the games, though. I usually watch every game, and when I miss one live I embargo all information and watch it later on the DVR, but through various mishaps I became aware of the results of the last two games before having a chance to watch them, and I don't purposefully watch losses.
And as for Shea Hillenbrand being gone, good riddance. He was signed as a panic move, despite the fact that I don't really think there's anything he can do that Robb Quinlan can't do better, unless "Jackass Index" is a new official stat. That will give more playing time to Kendry Morales, who's not doing anything to indicate that he needs less of it, and clear out a roster spot for some reliever or reserve outfielder who can provide some depth. And with any luck at all, Juan Rivera will be back in two shakes, and then Hillenbrand would have become really unnecessary.
But you know what? It doesn't mean all that much, in isolation, either. You really think we're going to have a lot of games where we get 10 hits and score no runs?
I don't really have anything to say about the games, though. I usually watch every game, and when I miss one live I embargo all information and watch it later on the DVR, but through various mishaps I became aware of the results of the last two games before having a chance to watch them, and I don't purposefully watch losses.
And as for Shea Hillenbrand being gone, good riddance. He was signed as a panic move, despite the fact that I don't really think there's anything he can do that Robb Quinlan can't do better, unless "Jackass Index" is a new official stat. That will give more playing time to Kendry Morales, who's not doing anything to indicate that he needs less of it, and clear out a roster spot for some reliever or reserve outfielder who can provide some depth. And with any luck at all, Juan Rivera will be back in two shakes, and then Hillenbrand would have become really unnecessary.
Labels: a real bummer, Juan Rivera, Kendry Morales, Robb Quinlan, Shea Hillenbrand
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
LOOKING FORWARD
As the midpoint of the season draws near, rumors begin to swirl about what, if anything, the Angels will and should do to secure their lead in the West.
However, the most imminent and likely rumor has to do with dispatching someone; the Yankees, as has been reported all over the Halosphere, have expressed interest in Shea Hillenbrand. It's hard to argue that the Angels really need Shea at this point (or that they ever did, really), but, nonetheless, we are reportedly uneasy with trading him while Garret Anderson resides on the DL and Casey Kotchman's near future is uncertain due to his concussion.
Signing Hillenbrand was a panic move in light of Juan Rivera's injury, of course. An understandable panic move, but one that was likely unnecessary (as I argued before the season). Given that he is being out-produced by both Reggie Willits and Robb Quinlan, I hold to this position.
Still, I understand wanting to make sure Casey is okay before moving forward. But I have no reservations with moving him. Kendry Morales is a better use of the roster spot.
In addition to ridding ourselves of Hillenbrand, there is talk of the Angels going out to get Adam Dunn. This is far more complicated.
Dunn certainly is an intriguing player. He has a ton of power and draws a lot of walks, two things our offense could use. But he's also a poor defender and, most likely, an ordinary baserunner (at best), and he strikes out a lot. However, being in the AL would allow him to DH, removing the poor defense from consideration, and you can live with the strikeouts when he produces like he can (a career OPS+ of 128, 134 so far this season). Dunn is an elite hitter who has never played in late summer games of particular significance, so he might really shine in a spotlight.
But, even outside of pondering what we'd have to give up (Joe Saunders and Hainley Staitia and someone else, perhaps?), he would create something of a logjam once Garret and Rivera return from injury. Rivera is about to start taking batting practice, and if he can return, even at his career 115-OPS+ level, he still would help the team considerably at bat, and with his solid defense and outstanding arm would provide a great service by relieving our corner outfielders. Dunn might be able to give Vlad a break as a DH twice a month or something, but that's far from ideal.
Reggie Willits has proven he belongs in the lineup; the Angels aren't going to bench a healthy Garret Anderson (though assuming health from him may be a case of counting chickens before they hatch) and Juan Rivera has earned playing time, as well. Though I wouldn't be adverse to acquiring Dunn if the price were right, I don't see Stoneman making such a move that could disrupt our current "offensive continuity" until he knows more about the condition of Garret and Juan.
Now, if from a month from now, neither one of those guys is healthy enough to produce, then we can revisit it. But as of this moment, I don't see anything developing on that front, and that doesn't really bother me.
I'm actually far more concerned about our bullpen, which we can discuss later this week.
However, the most imminent and likely rumor has to do with dispatching someone; the Yankees, as has been reported all over the Halosphere, have expressed interest in Shea Hillenbrand. It's hard to argue that the Angels really need Shea at this point (or that they ever did, really), but, nonetheless, we are reportedly uneasy with trading him while Garret Anderson resides on the DL and Casey Kotchman's near future is uncertain due to his concussion.
Signing Hillenbrand was a panic move in light of Juan Rivera's injury, of course. An understandable panic move, but one that was likely unnecessary (as I argued before the season). Given that he is being out-produced by both Reggie Willits and Robb Quinlan, I hold to this position.
Still, I understand wanting to make sure Casey is okay before moving forward. But I have no reservations with moving him. Kendry Morales is a better use of the roster spot.
In addition to ridding ourselves of Hillenbrand, there is talk of the Angels going out to get Adam Dunn. This is far more complicated.
Dunn certainly is an intriguing player. He has a ton of power and draws a lot of walks, two things our offense could use. But he's also a poor defender and, most likely, an ordinary baserunner (at best), and he strikes out a lot. However, being in the AL would allow him to DH, removing the poor defense from consideration, and you can live with the strikeouts when he produces like he can (a career OPS+ of 128, 134 so far this season). Dunn is an elite hitter who has never played in late summer games of particular significance, so he might really shine in a spotlight.
But, even outside of pondering what we'd have to give up (Joe Saunders and Hainley Staitia and someone else, perhaps?), he would create something of a logjam once Garret and Rivera return from injury. Rivera is about to start taking batting practice, and if he can return, even at his career 115-OPS+ level, he still would help the team considerably at bat, and with his solid defense and outstanding arm would provide a great service by relieving our corner outfielders. Dunn might be able to give Vlad a break as a DH twice a month or something, but that's far from ideal.
Reggie Willits has proven he belongs in the lineup; the Angels aren't going to bench a healthy Garret Anderson (though assuming health from him may be a case of counting chickens before they hatch) and Juan Rivera has earned playing time, as well. Though I wouldn't be adverse to acquiring Dunn if the price were right, I don't see Stoneman making such a move that could disrupt our current "offensive continuity" until he knows more about the condition of Garret and Juan.
Now, if from a month from now, neither one of those guys is healthy enough to produce, then we can revisit it. But as of this moment, I don't see anything developing on that front, and that doesn't really bother me.
I'm actually far more concerned about our bullpen, which we can discuss later this week.
Labels: a real bummer, Bill Stoneman, Casey Kotchman, Garret Anderson, Juan Rivera, Reggie Willits, Robb Quinlan, trade rumors
Tuesday, December 26, 2006
THE LEDGE
Well, we have signed Shea Hillenbrand to be our DH.
This is Juan Rivera insurance. Rivera will be undergoing surgery for his broken leg and we still don't know how long he'll be out.
What would the difference between Hillenbrand and Rivera be, over a full season (say, 600 plate appearances)?
RubenJuan and Hillenbrand is close to a win, maybe a bit more. Remember, however, that's just looking at the offense. There's another cost here, and that's on defense; Juan Rivera figured to get a lot of time on the corner outfield positions, giving Garret and Vlad rests, while providing a defensive advantage while filling in for either of them. That's gonna cost us some runs, as well.
Hillenbrand at DH also means that one of Legs Figgins and Dallas McPherson won't be in the starting lineup. I'd guess The Legs will take the hot corner and Big D will take the bench or another trip to Salt Lake.
And while you don't sign a guy to a $6.5M contract to be a platoon player, Hillenbrand does have a, um, 106 career OPS+ against southpaws, while McPherson has a 112 mark off of righties in his young career.
Let me take a step back here ...
... Shea Hillenbrand isn't an awful player. He's mediocre. He's an average hitter, not a very good fielder, durable. Blah blah blah. But he's a guy that's overrated due to his batting average. His .287 looks respectable, but if you adjust his league averages for his parks, the average is .271. Juan Rivera's .291 average is up against a park-adjusted league average of .265.
And Hillenbrand's average is pretty empty. He doesn't have exception power and never draws a walk. And what bothers me is that the Angels don't seem to understand than an empty batting average isn't really all that helpful to anyone.
Now, I do recognize that we're only getting Hillenbrand because of the Rivera situation, but he's a guy we've been rumored to be interested in for awhile, and we all know he's a guy who hacks and gets singles. If you hack and hit like Vlad, that's okay. But Hillenbrand has never been a difference-maker for anybody, and now he's on the bad side of 30. He's a finger in the dam, but we should all hope that Rivera can be healthy and productive sooner than later.
Well, we have signed Shea Hillenbrand to be our DH.
This is Juan Rivera insurance. Rivera will be undergoing surgery for his broken leg and we still don't know how long he'll be out.
What would the difference between Hillenbrand and Rivera be, over a full season (say, 600 plate appearances)?
Batting Runs Above AverageOver a full season, it looks like the difference between
per 600 PA
Rivera Shea
2003 + 1 -6
2004 +14 +5
2005 - 3 +6
2006 +23 -8
Average + 9 -1
Wtd Avg +12 -1
Hillenbrand at DH also means that one of Legs Figgins and Dallas McPherson won't be in the starting lineup. I'd guess The Legs will take the hot corner and Big D will take the bench or another trip to Salt Lake.
And while you don't sign a guy to a $6.5M contract to be a platoon player, Hillenbrand does have a, um, 106 career OPS+ against southpaws, while McPherson has a 112 mark off of righties in his young career.
Let me take a step back here ...
... Shea Hillenbrand isn't an awful player. He's mediocre. He's an average hitter, not a very good fielder, durable. Blah blah blah. But he's a guy that's overrated due to his batting average. His .287 looks respectable, but if you adjust his league averages for his parks, the average is .271. Juan Rivera's .291 average is up against a park-adjusted league average of .265.
And Hillenbrand's average is pretty empty. He doesn't have exception power and never draws a walk. And what bothers me is that the Angels don't seem to understand than an empty batting average isn't really all that helpful to anyone.
Now, I do recognize that we're only getting Hillenbrand because of the Rivera situation, but he's a guy we've been rumored to be interested in for awhile, and we all know he's a guy who hacks and gets singles. If you hack and hit like Vlad, that's okay. But Hillenbrand has never been a difference-maker for anybody, and now he's on the bad side of 30. He's a finger in the dam, but we should all hope that Rivera can be healthy and productive sooner than later.
Labels: a real bummer, Dallas McPherson, empty batting average, Garret Anderson, hacktastic offense, Juan Rivera, Legs Figgins, Shea Hillenbrand, Vladimir Guerrero
Saturday, December 23, 2006
"A REAL BUMMER"
Juan Rivera has broken his leg playing winter ball in Venezuela. He's seeing a specialist today, so we'll see what happens, and have more analysis when we know more.
Merry Christmas, everybody.
Juan Rivera has broken his leg playing winter ball in Venezuela. He's seeing a specialist today, so we'll see what happens, and have more analysis when we know more.
Merry Christmas, everybody.
Labels: a real bummer, calamity, injury, Juan Rivera
Monday, October 09, 2006
THE OUTFIELD
A couple of weeks ago I discussed the Angel infield; let's look to the outfield and designated hitter.
What was supposed to happen: Garret would stay healthy and bounce back a bit, Darin Erstad would play great defense and ground out to second for a few weeks before getting injured and being replaced by Legs Figgins, and Vlad would be Vlad. Juan Rivera would see time at DH and covering the corners, and even fill in some in center against lefty pitchers.
What happened: Garret stayed dinged up and mediocre, Figgins hit 30 points less than his career average, Vlad did his Vlad thing, and Rivera had a career year.
Where we go from here: Look, we're basically stuck with Garret in left field and/or DH. Mike Scioscia finally began to warm up to the idea that Juan Rivera is a better defender than Garret, and has a better arm. Sure, Garret is more surehanded (he didn't make an error last year), but Rivera gets to more balls (.854 to .844 in zone rating last year, .917 to .864 the year before) and has a better arm (Rivera had 7 assists from left last year to Garret's 1, playing in only around 60% of the innings of his senior). Garret's contract will preclude him from being moved anywhere, to he's all ours.
You're also going to have to get used to having Vlad in the lineup. I know that will be hard for us, but such is life. The only real flaw in his game, last year, anyway, was his defense; Vlad committed 11 errors, mostly the result of lapses of concentration. Mike Scioscia believes that he was dropping balls because of gimpy knees, making it hard to see the ball well while running. There is probably truth to this, and Vlad should be seeing more time at DH to give his body a break. Despite his bad instincts, his athleticism has made him average defender in years past, so I would expect something of a bounce-back in this regard in 2007.
Center field, of course, brings us big questions, and is intimately tied to the third base situation. It doesn't seem unlikely that the Angels will get either a third baseman or center fielder and install The Legs at the complementary position.
The options at center field, at this time, are questionable. Torii Hunter has a good shot at being a free agent, but he's on the wrong side of 30, is starting to suffer the attendant decline in defense, and his offense is solid but unspectacular. He's coming off his best offensive season since 2002, but there is little reason to believe his next four years will be as good as his last four. He'll likely demand a contract in the $10M per year range, which may be too much.
There is, theoretically, the possibility of trading for Vernon Wells. Wells has one year left on his contract with Toronto, so is financially cheap. He's a solid defensive player, though his offense is also something of a question mark; he was terrific in 2003 and 2006, but just a bit above average in the two years in between.
Of course, the Blue Jays, coming off a second-place finish and looking at two perennial giants who seem to be teetering on chaos in New York and Boston, may not be too thrilled with the idea of trading one of their key players. However, Alexis Rios, who had a breakthrough season with the bat last season, could be a candidate to be moved to center if Wells were dispatched. Juan Rivera might be an essential piece of such a trade so as to replace Rios, though the Jays would likely require a prospect as well. Their middle infield situation is a bit sticky (Aaron Hill can play second or short), so maybe Erick Aybar would sweeten the pot, though I worry that might be too much, so perhaps the Jays would throw in a lower-level prospect to even things up.
Otherwise, we may see Aramis Ramirez signed at third base. Other alleged third base candidates would come via trade, such as Joe Crede (pass), Mark Teahen (intriguing), Miguel Tejada (any talk of moving The OC to third to accommodate him, however, is utter madness), and even A-Rod (a great idea, in a vacuum).
It's difficult to evaluate any potential move without knowing the costs, so I will not do so here. Alex Rodriguez, for example, would be a great addition, but with his salary and the players that might be demanded of us to get him, would he be a good acquisition? That's an entirely different question.
If the Jays are willing to move him, I think the most exciting possibility is Vernon Wells. If not, I think we'd be best-served to upgrade the third base position. Of course, things will change as the off-season progresses.
A couple of weeks ago I discussed the Angel infield; let's look to the outfield and designated hitter.
What was supposed to happen: Garret would stay healthy and bounce back a bit, Darin Erstad would play great defense and ground out to second for a few weeks before getting injured and being replaced by Legs Figgins, and Vlad would be Vlad. Juan Rivera would see time at DH and covering the corners, and even fill in some in center against lefty pitchers.
What happened: Garret stayed dinged up and mediocre, Figgins hit 30 points less than his career average, Vlad did his Vlad thing, and Rivera had a career year.
Where we go from here: Look, we're basically stuck with Garret in left field and/or DH. Mike Scioscia finally began to warm up to the idea that Juan Rivera is a better defender than Garret, and has a better arm. Sure, Garret is more surehanded (he didn't make an error last year), but Rivera gets to more balls (.854 to .844 in zone rating last year, .917 to .864 the year before) and has a better arm (Rivera had 7 assists from left last year to Garret's 1, playing in only around 60% of the innings of his senior). Garret's contract will preclude him from being moved anywhere, to he's all ours.
You're also going to have to get used to having Vlad in the lineup. I know that will be hard for us, but such is life. The only real flaw in his game, last year, anyway, was his defense; Vlad committed 11 errors, mostly the result of lapses of concentration. Mike Scioscia believes that he was dropping balls because of gimpy knees, making it hard to see the ball well while running. There is probably truth to this, and Vlad should be seeing more time at DH to give his body a break. Despite his bad instincts, his athleticism has made him average defender in years past, so I would expect something of a bounce-back in this regard in 2007.
Center field, of course, brings us big questions, and is intimately tied to the third base situation. It doesn't seem unlikely that the Angels will get either a third baseman or center fielder and install The Legs at the complementary position.
The options at center field, at this time, are questionable. Torii Hunter has a good shot at being a free agent, but he's on the wrong side of 30, is starting to suffer the attendant decline in defense, and his offense is solid but unspectacular. He's coming off his best offensive season since 2002, but there is little reason to believe his next four years will be as good as his last four. He'll likely demand a contract in the $10M per year range, which may be too much.
There is, theoretically, the possibility of trading for Vernon Wells. Wells has one year left on his contract with Toronto, so is financially cheap. He's a solid defensive player, though his offense is also something of a question mark; he was terrific in 2003 and 2006, but just a bit above average in the two years in between.
Of course, the Blue Jays, coming off a second-place finish and looking at two perennial giants who seem to be teetering on chaos in New York and Boston, may not be too thrilled with the idea of trading one of their key players. However, Alexis Rios, who had a breakthrough season with the bat last season, could be a candidate to be moved to center if Wells were dispatched. Juan Rivera might be an essential piece of such a trade so as to replace Rios, though the Jays would likely require a prospect as well. Their middle infield situation is a bit sticky (Aaron Hill can play second or short), so maybe Erick Aybar would sweeten the pot, though I worry that might be too much, so perhaps the Jays would throw in a lower-level prospect to even things up.
Otherwise, we may see Aramis Ramirez signed at third base. Other alleged third base candidates would come via trade, such as Joe Crede (pass), Mark Teahen (intriguing), Miguel Tejada (any talk of moving The OC to third to accommodate him, however, is utter madness), and even A-Rod (a great idea, in a vacuum).
It's difficult to evaluate any potential move without knowing the costs, so I will not do so here. Alex Rodriguez, for example, would be a great addition, but with his salary and the players that might be demanded of us to get him, would he be a good acquisition? That's an entirely different question.
If the Jays are willing to move him, I think the most exciting possibility is Vernon Wells. If not, I think we'd be best-served to upgrade the third base position. Of course, things will change as the off-season progresses.
Labels: Alex Rodriguez, Aramis Ramirez, Darin Erstad, Eric k Aybar, fielding, Garret Anderson, Joe Crede, Juan Rivera, Legs Figgins, Mark Teahen, Miguel Tejada, Vernon Wells, Vladimir Guerrero
