Monday, February 18, 2008
STAY-ROD?
The news of Francisco Rodriguez saying that he expects this season to be his last in an Angel uniform has spread through the Halosphere like wildfire. I first noted it at BBTF when this OC Register article was linked, which includes the following passage:
As you recall, Frankie became the Angel closer in 2005. Over the past three years, he has saved 132 games with an ERA+ of 197. So let's look at pitchers who, from 2005 through 2007, have at least 100 saves and an ERA+ of at least 170; this will be Frankie's peer group.
Here they are. There's only four: Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner, and Frankie. Frankie actually has the lowest ERA+ of any of them, though he has the most saves. But let's see what these guys make:
There are five pitchers one step or more down from Frankie, guys who have had 100+ saves over the past three years, but ERA+ numbers below the 170 mark.
The Angels have offered Frankie just over $11M per year, so they are trying to pay him at a level close to the Big Boys, but not quite matching them; that's much closer to Francisco Cordero than . His performance thus far would justify that, if that's how you're looking to pay your players. However, I would have to assume that Tony Reagins is not an idiot, and knows that there's no way Rodriguez would go for that, especially not in a world that pays Francisco Cordero, a reliever of lower accomplishment and older vintage than The K, $11.5M per year. The market for elite closers, rightly or wrongly, is trending upward, and there's no way in hell we should expect Frankie to sign for a lesser deal than Francisco Cordero.
How much should Frankie be paid, based on performance? We'll look at that another day. But the Angels have low-balled him thus far, at least relative to other recent closer contracts; this may be sound negotiating, and this may all resolve itself in the next few months, but based on what has reportedly been offered so far, I can understand why Rodriguez thinks he may be in a different uniform come 2009.
[T]he Angels have made numerous multi-year offers to their closer over the past three offseasons. General Manager Tony Reagins confirmed that the Angels did make Rodriguez a multi-year offer this winter. That deal is believed to have been in the neighborhood of $34 million for three years. Coming off three consecutive 40-save seasons with more saves than anyone in the majors over that time, Rodriguez was seeking a deal more like the three-year, $45 million contract extension Mariano Rivera signed with the Yankees this past winter.There are people out there doing good work on how much a player should be paid, based on what he contributes to his team. But let's ignore that for the moment, and look at it from the perspective that Frankie and his representatives will be. They want to know who is similar to Frankie, and what they do get paid, not what they should be, necessarily.
Rodriguez could be a hot commodity as a free agent. With a less impressive track Crecord than Rodriguez has, former Rangers and Brewers closer Francisco Cordero was able to get a four-year, $46 million deal from the Cincinnati Reds as a free agent this offseason.
As you recall, Frankie became the Angel closer in 2005. Over the past three years, he has saved 132 games with an ERA+ of 197. So let's look at pitchers who, from 2005 through 2007, have at least 100 saves and an ERA+ of at least 170; this will be Frankie's peer group.
Here they are. There's only four: Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner, and Frankie. Frankie actually has the lowest ERA+ of any of them, though he has the most saves. But let's see what these guys make:
Pitcher Yrs Sal Yr SignedNathan wasn't a free agent yet when he signed his current deal, which gave him $5M per year in 2006 and 2007; the club exercised its $6M option for 2007. Rivera and Wagner, however, are making an average of $12.6M per year over their current deals. Though Frankie isn't quite as good as they, or at least hasn't been over the last three years, with salary inflation and his age, one would have to imagine that this would be at the bottom of the range that Frankie would command on the free market come next winter, presuming he stays healthy and performs at a level substantially similar to what he has done thus far.
Nathan 3 16M 2006
Rivera 3 45M 2008
Wagner 4 43M 2006
There are five pitchers one step or more down from Frankie, guys who have had 100+ saves over the past three years, but ERA+ numbers below the 170 mark.
Pitcher Yrs Sal Yr SignedChad Cordero has never been a free agent, so his salary isn't really relevant here. Isringhausen and Hoffman are both on their option years in 2008. Anyway, of the four free agent pitchers in this group, they're making an average of $9M per year.
Isrinhsn 4 33.75M 2005
CCordero 1 6.2M 2008
Hoffman 3 21M 2006
FCordero 4 46M 2008
Jones 1 7M 2008
The Angels have offered Frankie just over $11M per year, so they are trying to pay him at a level close to the Big Boys, but not quite matching them; that's much closer to Francisco Cordero than . His performance thus far would justify that, if that's how you're looking to pay your players. However, I would have to assume that Tony Reagins is not an idiot, and knows that there's no way Rodriguez would go for that, especially not in a world that pays Francisco Cordero, a reliever of lower accomplishment and older vintage than The K, $11.5M per year. The market for elite closers, rightly or wrongly, is trending upward, and there's no way in hell we should expect Frankie to sign for a lesser deal than Francisco Cordero.
How much should Frankie be paid, based on performance? We'll look at that another day. But the Angels have low-balled him thus far, at least relative to other recent closer contracts; this may be sound negotiating, and this may all resolve itself in the next few months, but based on what has reportedly been offered so far, I can understand why Rodriguez thinks he may be in a different uniform come 2009.
Labels: Francisco Rodriguez
Wednesday, April 04, 2007
FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ, B.D.?
Well, Deadspin linked to this, so you've probably seen Derek Zumsteg's argument that K-Rod doctors the ball.
I don't know if you've gone back to look at the video or not, but I have, and ... I have no idea.
It's certainly not as clear-cut as Derek makes it seem. Frankie does touch the brim of his cap quite a bit, but he practically always follows it up with wiping his hand across his pants. Maybe he tucks his thumb and is just wiping his fingers, and it's all an elaborate ruse, or maybe that's just his tic while on the mound. Or maybe both.
Derek also exhorts us to observe how the pitches he throws after touching his cap differ in movement from those he throws otherwise, but as best as I can tell there's no pattern to this at all. The second strike Frankie throws to Brad Wilkerson (before which he touches the cap) looks just like the first strike (before which he doesn't). The only pitch with unique movement is the first pitch to Gerald Laird, a fastball that rides inside for a ball (all of Frankie's pitches but one were fastballs). A couple of the other time he touches his hat, he throws a ball.
So, I have no idea if K-Rod has his doctorate in ball ... doctoring or not, but if he does, I might suggest he stop, as the pitches that apparently arouse suspicion tend to suck.
(Incidentally, I went back and watched K-Rod's last save from 2006; he does substantially the same thing, touching his cap and then his goggles. Once again, there is no discernible difference in the movement of his pitches from one to another [he was slider-heavy in that outing, and mixes in his fastball with both the big and get-me-over sliders]. I glanced at some April outings, too, same thing. 2006 is as far back as the MLB.tv archives go.)
Well, Deadspin linked to this, so you've probably seen Derek Zumsteg's argument that K-Rod doctors the ball.
I don't know if you've gone back to look at the video or not, but I have, and ... I have no idea.
It's certainly not as clear-cut as Derek makes it seem. Frankie does touch the brim of his cap quite a bit, but he practically always follows it up with wiping his hand across his pants. Maybe he tucks his thumb and is just wiping his fingers, and it's all an elaborate ruse, or maybe that's just his tic while on the mound. Or maybe both.
Derek also exhorts us to observe how the pitches he throws after touching his cap differ in movement from those he throws otherwise, but as best as I can tell there's no pattern to this at all. The second strike Frankie throws to Brad Wilkerson (before which he touches the cap) looks just like the first strike (before which he doesn't). The only pitch with unique movement is the first pitch to Gerald Laird, a fastball that rides inside for a ball (all of Frankie's pitches but one were fastballs). A couple of the other time he touches his hat, he throws a ball.
So, I have no idea if K-Rod has his doctorate in ball ... doctoring or not, but if he does, I might suggest he stop, as the pitches that apparently arouse suspicion tend to suck.
(Incidentally, I went back and watched K-Rod's last save from 2006; he does substantially the same thing, touching his cap and then his goggles. Once again, there is no discernible difference in the movement of his pitches from one to another [he was slider-heavy in that outing, and mixes in his fastball with both the big and get-me-over sliders]. I glanced at some April outings, too, same thing. 2006 is as far back as the MLB.tv archives go.)
Labels: ball doctoring, Francisco Rodriguez
Tuesday, April 03, 2007
THE GAME PLAN
Well, aside from John Lackey having a relatively short outing, Opening Day went pretty much according to plan. A strong enough outing from the starter, a few runs scrapped out here and there, and the bullpen closing the door in the last third of the game.
A few notes:
John Lackey did not look particularly good, with errant control of his fastball and slurve. He reverted back to the old pussy-footing around when he got behind in the count, getting cute with slurves (which weren't close enough to the strike zone to get anyone to bite) and foregoing his heat. Now, when Mark Teixeira is up with a runner in scoring position with two outs, fine, pitch around the guy. With guys on first and second and two outs? I'd prefer you not to walk the bases loaded, thanks.
And not only does this cowardice lead to baserunners, it also racks up the pitch count, which is going to keep Lackey from going deep into games, especially this early in the season.
Darren Oliver came in to face to left-handed batters and, shockingly, retired neither of them.
Oliver, over his career, hasn't had any kind of platoon advantage against the LHB (he's allowed an 810 OPS to RHB and 817 to LHB, a virtual tie). He's even had several seasons where lefties tag him even more than righties did, so he's miscast in a role where he's asked to only retire left-handers.
Are we so phobic of Casey Kotchman's "speed" leading to double plays that we're gonna hit-and-run with Shea Hillenbrand on base all the time? Okay, one of the instances last night was on a 3-2 count, so I dig that one. But late in the game a straight hit-and-run was put on early in the count; Casey flailed at a pitch at least a foot out of the strike zone to the side and at least a foot out of the strike zone toward the ground, and Hillenbrand got hosed from you to me. This was when Mike Wood was pitching; he couldn't find the plate at all there, and Kotchman drew a walk. The hit-and-run backfired there. Hillenbrand is no kind of speedster, so we should be careful about using this weapon.
It isn't the sort of thing you notice, but K-Rod exhibited some very nice pitching against Brad Wilkerson in the ninth. After falling behind 3-0, K-Rod came back with two fastballs to full the count. Instead of pulling a Lackey and getting cute with the breaking stuff, K-Rod kept coming at him with the fastball, garnering a flyout to deepest center.
While a fly to the warning track may look bad -- just a few feet another way and it's a home run! -- it was in fact the residue of design. With a three-run lead, Frankie knew that a home run wasn't going to hurt him, but that there's no point in walking a guy. If someone's going to reach base, make him earn it, don't give him a free pass. The K spotted his fastball perfectly on the outside corner, letting Wilkerson lay some wood on it in a place where he was unlikely to pull it over the rightfield fence or push it over the one in left. K-Rod let the ballpark work for him, and got one of the easier saves he should expect to see.
Well, aside from John Lackey having a relatively short outing, Opening Day went pretty much according to plan. A strong enough outing from the starter, a few runs scrapped out here and there, and the bullpen closing the door in the last third of the game.
A few notes:
And not only does this cowardice lead to baserunners, it also racks up the pitch count, which is going to keep Lackey from going deep into games, especially this early in the season.
Oliver, over his career, hasn't had any kind of platoon advantage against the LHB (he's allowed an 810 OPS to RHB and 817 to LHB, a virtual tie). He's even had several seasons where lefties tag him even more than righties did, so he's miscast in a role where he's asked to only retire left-handers.
While a fly to the warning track may look bad -- just a few feet another way and it's a home run! -- it was in fact the residue of design. With a three-run lead, Frankie knew that a home run wasn't going to hurt him, but that there's no point in walking a guy. If someone's going to reach base, make him earn it, don't give him a free pass. The K spotted his fastball perfectly on the outside corner, letting Wilkerson lay some wood on it in a place where he was unlikely to pull it over the rightfield fence or push it over the one in left. K-Rod let the ballpark work for him, and got one of the easier saves he should expect to see.
Labels: Casey Kotchman, Darren Oliver, Francisco Rodriguez, John Lackey, John Lackey (cowardice of), Shea Hillenbrand
