Thursday, August 30, 2007
THAT WAS OUR BROOMSTICK
I've had my worries about the Angels this year -- I know that we're better than Seattle, but our play has been inconsistent and dispiriting at times. But our three-game sweep in the Emerald City certainly was good news, and one certainly can't complain about a five-game lead on August 30. Only one division leader in baseball (Boston) has a larger lead today, and even that's by only one game.
Of course, not everything went right, and our Lads have to keep up their game over the next month. John Lackey, incredibly, was able to dominate despite suffering from strep throat; I haven't had that since elementary school, but I certainly remember it being terrible, so that's an impressive outing all the more. Hopefully he gets better soon, as I can't really imagine him being able to keep it up while suffering illness.
And the enigma of Ervin Santana only continued this week, and hit what is likely his nadir. It's hard to imagine The Magic returning to the rotation as long as the division is still in dispute, but youneverknow, though even if he doesn't we may see him throwing some junk innings out of the pen. As it's been all season, I'm hard-pressed to come up with any explanation's for Ervin's deterioration. But watching him on Tuesday reminded me of ... well, me. I was at the driving range this past weekend, and my entire swing was out of sync, and nothing I could do could get me back on track. It was my worst trip to a range ever, including when I was a small child. Ervin on the mound reminded me of that experience.
We were counting on Ervin this year, and the plan has always been to count on him next year, as well. That appears to be in question, though given his track record, youth, and raw material, I would assume that he'll go into spring training with at least an opportunity to regain his rotation spot. I'm pulling for him, of course; it's always shocking to see any player, especially a young and (presumably) healthy pitcher, fall apart, and hopefully the king's men can put him back together.
Jered Weaver finished off the sweep.. His command was a bit better than his previous start, as he cut down his walks infinitely, but he gave up one more earned run and struck out the same number of batters despite pitching one more whole inning. Jered's ERA+ of 114 ranks 20th out of the 44 AL pitchers with 125+ innings pitched, and tied for 37th out of the 96 major league pitchers above that threshold. Of course, this is Jered's age 24 season, and at that same age, John Lackey was posting an ERA+ of 92, Ervin Santana one of 67, and Bartolo Colon an 83 in less than 100 innings. Jered's brother, Jeff, whose presence on the mound against us Tuesday meant that I never lost hope after Ervin got buried in the first, did manage a 111 that season, fairly close to Jered's mark. However, Jeff only posted an 89 the season before, unlike Jered and his 171.
Jered Weaver has now thrown 256 innings, posting an ERA+ of 136, with rather strong peripherals. Amongst starting pitchers in major league history who had thrown between 200 and 300 innings through the age of 24, Jered's ERA+ is tied for 7th out of 157. His innings pitched total ranks just above the middle of that group, at 65th, yet he manages to rank 10th in strikeouts, 24th in least walks issued, and 4th in wins -- it helps that he 9th in strikeouts per 9 innings and 18th in least walks per 9.
Of course, the season's not over, so we can look at this again over the winter. And there is a long-term question with his health, as there is with any young pitcher. Note Aaron Sele, whose first two season resemble Jered's first two in certain respects. He followed those two seasons with a season where he only managed six starts, presumably due to medical reasons. He was never the same pitcher, and his story is not unique.
At any rate, just as Jered is positioned to have a productive career if he stays on track, so also our team is now very much in the driver's seat as they look to win their third division title in the past four seasons.
Of course, not everything went right, and our Lads have to keep up their game over the next month. John Lackey, incredibly, was able to dominate despite suffering from strep throat; I haven't had that since elementary school, but I certainly remember it being terrible, so that's an impressive outing all the more. Hopefully he gets better soon, as I can't really imagine him being able to keep it up while suffering illness.
And the enigma of Ervin Santana only continued this week, and hit what is likely his nadir. It's hard to imagine The Magic returning to the rotation as long as the division is still in dispute, but youneverknow, though even if he doesn't we may see him throwing some junk innings out of the pen. As it's been all season, I'm hard-pressed to come up with any explanation's for Ervin's deterioration. But watching him on Tuesday reminded me of ... well, me. I was at the driving range this past weekend, and my entire swing was out of sync, and nothing I could do could get me back on track. It was my worst trip to a range ever, including when I was a small child. Ervin on the mound reminded me of that experience.
We were counting on Ervin this year, and the plan has always been to count on him next year, as well. That appears to be in question, though given his track record, youth, and raw material, I would assume that he'll go into spring training with at least an opportunity to regain his rotation spot. I'm pulling for him, of course; it's always shocking to see any player, especially a young and (presumably) healthy pitcher, fall apart, and hopefully the king's men can put him back together.
Jered Weaver finished off the sweep.. His command was a bit better than his previous start, as he cut down his walks infinitely, but he gave up one more earned run and struck out the same number of batters despite pitching one more whole inning. Jered's ERA+ of 114 ranks 20th out of the 44 AL pitchers with 125+ innings pitched, and tied for 37th out of the 96 major league pitchers above that threshold. Of course, this is Jered's age 24 season, and at that same age, John Lackey was posting an ERA+ of 92, Ervin Santana one of 67, and Bartolo Colon an 83 in less than 100 innings. Jered's brother, Jeff, whose presence on the mound against us Tuesday meant that I never lost hope after Ervin got buried in the first, did manage a 111 that season, fairly close to Jered's mark. However, Jeff only posted an 89 the season before, unlike Jered and his 171.
Jered Weaver has now thrown 256 innings, posting an ERA+ of 136, with rather strong peripherals. Amongst starting pitchers in major league history who had thrown between 200 and 300 innings through the age of 24, Jered's ERA+ is tied for 7th out of 157. His innings pitched total ranks just above the middle of that group, at 65th, yet he manages to rank 10th in strikeouts, 24th in least walks issued, and 4th in wins -- it helps that he 9th in strikeouts per 9 innings and 18th in least walks per 9.
Of course, the season's not over, so we can look at this again over the winter. And there is a long-term question with his health, as there is with any young pitcher. Note Aaron Sele, whose first two season resemble Jered's first two in certain respects. He followed those two seasons with a season where he only managed six starts, presumably due to medical reasons. He was never the same pitcher, and his story is not unique.
At any rate, just as Jered is positioned to have a productive career if he stays on track, so also our team is now very much in the driver's seat as they look to win their third division title in the past four seasons.
Labels: Ervin Santana, Jered Weaver, John Lackey
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
THE SANTANA QUESTION
Ervin's start in St. Petersburg today did nothing to assuage his critics, and little to encourage his champions. He kept the ball in the park, but no matter what he did, it resulted in a hit. Hard groundballs were hits. Soft groundballs were hits. Line drives were hits. Flyballs were hits. Bloopers were hits.
And so the call resounds to sent Ervin to Salt Lake, as if this will help. After all, he never really pitched there, right?
Well, that part is true, but it hasn't seemed to have hurt him, has it? Do you really think his struggles now are happening because he didn't pitch much at AAA two years ago?
I mean, Ervin did struggle somewhat when he came up at first, at least with his consistency. His ERA stood at 6.20 after his first eight starts, but over his next 15, Ervin put up a more-than-solid 3.97 in 93 innings, striking out 65 against 27 walks.
As you know, Ervin was an above-average pitcher in 2006, as well, posting an ERA+ of 102. He probably was a bit lucky on balls in play, but, well check out this comparison between Ervin '06 and a Mystery Pitcher:
If you guessed John Lackey in 2003, you were correct. This is a comparison of each guy's first full season. Looking at his peripherals, you see that Ervin wasn't too far off of Lackey; a tad less strikeouts, a few more walks, but much better on hits and home runs -- and a year younger.
Now, did Ervin really get away with a season-and-half of solid major league pitching in a way that tells us he needed to experience AAA? In 48 starts from the middle of 2005 through the end of 2006, Ervin had a 4.18 ERA, striking out 206 against 97 walks in 297 innings. That's a major league pitcher.
Of course, he is pitching terribly this season. But I fail to see that his failures this year are due to his having "missed" development time in AAA. If that were the case, wouldn't we have seen these problems before? In, like, the previous 340 innings he threw?
Now, I'm not discounting the idea that maybe a trip to AAA might help him. But it seems like a rash move. I think that, if Ervin isn't straightened out within the month, it should be a trip to the bullpen, not the minors, for Santana. Let him work against major league hitters, in front of a major league defense.
There's room for him; we can always send Brandon Wood or Kendry Morales (whom Mike Scioscia appears to have little want of using) back to AAA to get regular at-bats. Joe Saunders (who everyone is talking about like he's an established major league starter, despite his bona fides being shakier than Ervin's in many ways, including his unexceptional performance for Salt Lake this year) can enter the rotation, or I guess even Dustin Moseley, though how a guy who strikes out less than one man per two innings is supposed to maintain success is beyond me.
What I know is that we have a talented pitcher who has suddenly become unable to pitch. He skipped AAA, basically, and for a reason. Let's keep him around, let him get it together against real competition in low-leverage situations if need be, and unleash him back into the rotation once he's back to where we know he can be.
And so the call resounds to sent Ervin to Salt Lake, as if this will help. After all, he never really pitched there, right?
Well, that part is true, but it hasn't seemed to have hurt him, has it? Do you really think his struggles now are happening because he didn't pitch much at AAA two years ago?
I mean, Ervin did struggle somewhat when he came up at first, at least with his consistency. His ERA stood at 6.20 after his first eight starts, but over his next 15, Ervin put up a more-than-solid 3.97 in 93 innings, striking out 65 against 27 walks.
As you know, Ervin was an above-average pitcher in 2006, as well, posting an ERA+ of 102. He probably was a bit lucky on balls in play, but, well check out this comparison between Ervin '06 and a Mystery Pitcher:
Pitcher Age BFP BF/K BF/BB BF/HR BF/H ERA+Did you guess who the Mystery Pitcher was? I'll give you a hint: it's John Lackey, in 2003.
Ervin Santana 23 846 6.00 12.44 40.29 4.67 102
Lohn Jackey 24 885 5.86 14.27 28.55 3.97 92
If you guessed John Lackey in 2003, you were correct. This is a comparison of each guy's first full season. Looking at his peripherals, you see that Ervin wasn't too far off of Lackey; a tad less strikeouts, a few more walks, but much better on hits and home runs -- and a year younger.
Now, did Ervin really get away with a season-and-half of solid major league pitching in a way that tells us he needed to experience AAA? In 48 starts from the middle of 2005 through the end of 2006, Ervin had a 4.18 ERA, striking out 206 against 97 walks in 297 innings. That's a major league pitcher.
Of course, he is pitching terribly this season. But I fail to see that his failures this year are due to his having "missed" development time in AAA. If that were the case, wouldn't we have seen these problems before? In, like, the previous 340 innings he threw?
Now, I'm not discounting the idea that maybe a trip to AAA might help him. But it seems like a rash move. I think that, if Ervin isn't straightened out within the month, it should be a trip to the bullpen, not the minors, for Santana. Let him work against major league hitters, in front of a major league defense.
There's room for him; we can always send Brandon Wood or Kendry Morales (whom Mike Scioscia appears to have little want of using) back to AAA to get regular at-bats. Joe Saunders (who everyone is talking about like he's an established major league starter, despite his bona fides being shakier than Ervin's in many ways, including his unexceptional performance for Salt Lake this year) can enter the rotation, or I guess even Dustin Moseley, though how a guy who strikes out less than one man per two innings is supposed to maintain success is beyond me.
What I know is that we have a talented pitcher who has suddenly become unable to pitch. He skipped AAA, basically, and for a reason. Let's keep him around, let him get it together against real competition in low-leverage situations if need be, and unleash him back into the rotation once he's back to where we know he can be.
Labels: Brandon Wood, Dustin Moseley, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, John Lackey, Kendry Morales
Thursday, May 17, 2007
LACK ATTACK!
John Lackey pitched six strong shutout innings last night, on the heels of a superb performance against Texas last week. Over the course of the two games, he only gave up three runs in just over 14 innings, all of which came in his last inning at Rangers Ballpark.
Both starts were typified by something I've been harping on for years: John trusted his fastball, attacked the strike zone, and got outs. Too often in his past, he's started goofing around with his breaking ball, trying to get strikeouts, and throwing hitters too many lifelines.
Though obviously his slider/curve/slurve/bender/sweeper/whatever is a killer pitch, and you need to be able to throw it with confidence even when down in the count, I've often thought that he leans too far in that direction.
But in the last two starts, this has not been the case. He ascribed this, in post-game interview after the Texas game, as a result of the Angels giving him a big lead. I didn't see if he had an interview after last night's game, though I doubt the 2-0 lead he was given really changed his approach. I think he just saw the success he had against Texas and decided to keep going with it. It's almost certainly throwing opposing hitters, especially division foes who have seen him the most, for a bit of a loop.
You can see this strike-zone-pummeling in the statistical record; in the last two games, John has thrown nearly 67% of his pitches for strikes, compared to 64% for his first seven starts. Is that statistically significant? I have no idea, to be honest. But it does comport to subjective evaluation.
This new attack philosophy has had a slight negative impact on his strikeouts. In his last two games, Lackey has struck out one every 4.9 batters, where in his first seven, it was one every 4.4. But his walks have gone down in a big way, to one every 27 batters instead of one every 15.9. As such, his strikeout-to-walk ratio moved from a superb 3.58:1 in his first seven starts to an even better 5.5:1 in the last two.
These are all extraordinary numbers, and as good as he is right now, we shouldn't expect him to keep this up. But, truthfully, I wouldn't be surprised, either. Big John seems at the top of his game, is constantly getting a better and better idea of what he's doing, and has very good stuff and a fiery intensity.
He's got a ways to go before he's the best pitcher in Halo history out of Texas, but he's doing the legacy proud.
Both starts were typified by something I've been harping on for years: John trusted his fastball, attacked the strike zone, and got outs. Too often in his past, he's started goofing around with his breaking ball, trying to get strikeouts, and throwing hitters too many lifelines.
Though obviously his slider/curve/slurve/bender/sweeper/whatever is a killer pitch, and you need to be able to throw it with confidence even when down in the count, I've often thought that he leans too far in that direction.
But in the last two starts, this has not been the case. He ascribed this, in post-game interview after the Texas game, as a result of the Angels giving him a big lead. I didn't see if he had an interview after last night's game, though I doubt the 2-0 lead he was given really changed his approach. I think he just saw the success he had against Texas and decided to keep going with it. It's almost certainly throwing opposing hitters, especially division foes who have seen him the most, for a bit of a loop.
You can see this strike-zone-pummeling in the statistical record; in the last two games, John has thrown nearly 67% of his pitches for strikes, compared to 64% for his first seven starts. Is that statistically significant? I have no idea, to be honest. But it does comport to subjective evaluation.
This new attack philosophy has had a slight negative impact on his strikeouts. In his last two games, Lackey has struck out one every 4.9 batters, where in his first seven, it was one every 4.4. But his walks have gone down in a big way, to one every 27 batters instead of one every 15.9. As such, his strikeout-to-walk ratio moved from a superb 3.58:1 in his first seven starts to an even better 5.5:1 in the last two.
These are all extraordinary numbers, and as good as he is right now, we shouldn't expect him to keep this up. But, truthfully, I wouldn't be surprised, either. Big John seems at the top of his game, is constantly getting a better and better idea of what he's doing, and has very good stuff and a fiery intensity.
He's got a ways to go before he's the best pitcher in Halo history out of Texas, but he's doing the legacy proud.
Labels: John Lackey, John Lackey (attack philosophy of)
Monday, May 14, 2007
HOME AND ROAD
Okay gang, just stick with this, at least past the asterisks, okay?
I'm sure you know this, but Ervin Santana for the last two seasons has been two different pitchers; a good one at home and a Bartolo Colon v.2004esque one on the road. Is there any reason we should expect this gap to continue?
After yesterday's sterling perf, Magic has a 2.57 ERA at home this year against a 7.86 on the road. The big difference -- well, hell, I'll just show you:
Well, last year he had a 3.02 ERA at home and a 5.95 away from the Big A. What do the peripherals tell us about last season?
***
Okay, there's a punchline to all that.
The above is, nearly word-for-word, something I wrote about John Lackey three years ago. I mean, literally: I copied-and-pasted it, and just changed the names and numbers where appropriate.
Let's look at both guy's career numbers, Santana through now, Lackey in 2003 and 2004 only. What I'm going to show you is a differential; a positive means that the pitcher is better in that category at home. For example Santana's strikeout rate has been .005 points better at home than on the road in his career.
Now, as you can see, Santana's road disadvantage has been more extreme than Lackey's was in those two years. Still, I can't think of any legitimate reason that this disparity should continue at such an extreme.
Remember, Santana is a young pitcher -- he's a year younger now than Lackey was at the point we're comparing them. Remember how frustrating Lackey could be in his first two full seasons? Struggling on the road, the "Lackey Inning", all that stuff? Why would we expect Ervin to be any different?
Yes, he will struggle at times. Yes, he will frustrate. But I think we gotta stick with him. He has good stuff, has demonstrated brilliance, and usually keeps a good composure on the mound. I don't know that he's going to make the same jump that Lackey did between 2004 and 2005. But I think he's got a shot, and the Angels owe it to themselves to find out if he can do it.
I'm sure you know this, but Ervin Santana for the last two seasons has been two different pitchers; a good one at home and a Bartolo Colon v.2004esque one on the road. Is there any reason we should expect this gap to continue?
After yesterday's sterling perf, Magic has a 2.57 ERA at home this year against a 7.86 on the road. The big difference -- well, hell, I'll just show you:
WHERE BF SO/BF BB/BF HR/BF BABIPIt looks like he's had some bad luck defensively on the road (or has given up more screamers) and some good fortune at home. We might expect that to even out a bit (whether the cause is defense or Santana himself) as the season goes on. Of course, this is a pretty small sample. What did he do last year?
Home 84 .202 .060 .024 .254
Away 128 .156 .109 .070 .345
Well, last year he had a 3.02 ERA at home and a 5.95 away from the Big A. What do the peripherals tell us about last season?
WHERE BF SO/BF BB/BF HR/BF BABIPSantana was slightly but uniformly better at home last year, too. Of course, there is some degree home field advantage, so that is to be expected. But beyond that, I see no reason to expect Ervin to vastly outperform his road performance at home. I think it's just one of those fluky things that evens out over time.
Home 469 .162 .075 .017 .251
Away 377 .172 .093 .034 .287
***
Okay, there's a punchline to all that.
The above is, nearly word-for-word, something I wrote about John Lackey three years ago. I mean, literally: I copied-and-pasted it, and just changed the names and numbers where appropriate.
Let's look at both guy's career numbers, Santana through now, Lackey in 2003 and 2004 only. What I'm going to show you is a differential; a positive means that the pitcher is better in that category at home. For example Santana's strikeout rate has been .005 points better at home than on the road in his career.
WHO SO/BF BB/BF HR/BF BABIP ERANow, I'll confess to some cherry-picking here, in that I didn't include John's rookie season; Big John didn't have such a huge disparity in 2002. But I know this: he struggled on the road in a big way in 2003 and 2004, but in 2005 and 2006, was actually better on the road than at home.
Santana +.005 +.020 +.025 +.058 +3.65
Lackey +.003 +.007 +.017 +.044 +2.30
Now, as you can see, Santana's road disadvantage has been more extreme than Lackey's was in those two years. Still, I can't think of any legitimate reason that this disparity should continue at such an extreme.
Remember, Santana is a young pitcher -- he's a year younger now than Lackey was at the point we're comparing them. Remember how frustrating Lackey could be in his first two full seasons? Struggling on the road, the "Lackey Inning", all that stuff? Why would we expect Ervin to be any different?
Yes, he will struggle at times. Yes, he will frustrate. But I think we gotta stick with him. He has good stuff, has demonstrated brilliance, and usually keeps a good composure on the mound. I don't know that he's going to make the same jump that Lackey did between 2004 and 2005. But I think he's got a shot, and the Angels owe it to themselves to find out if he can do it.
Labels: Ervin Santana, John Lackey
Thursday, April 19, 2007
TROUBLE
As you know, Howie Kendrick has been placed on the DL, and is not expected back in the lineup for four to six weeks.
Howie is one of the only guys in the lineup who had his bat going, hitting 327/365/490 in his 14 games. He had made three errors at second, but otherwise was settling into a regular role somewhat nicely.
It is unclear what the Angels will do in Howie's absence, but we may be as close as one week away from Legs Figgins making his first appearance of the season, which will simplify matters; Figgins can return to third and send Maicer Izturis over to second, or vice versa.
What to do for the next week (or possibly beyond, if Figgins isn't able to come back in time)? The current on-roster solution would be to put Erick Aybar there. Aybar has plenty of defensive skills at short, but isn't as familiar with second. That's a frequent conversion, of course, but we don't know how skilled he may be on the pivot.
Another solution would be to bring up someone from the minors; Brandon Wood (off to an okay 293/373/534 in 58 at-bats at AAA, but with 18 strikeouts) could come up to play third (once again moving Ztu to the keystone) or Kendry Morales (314/340/412 in 51 AB) could come up to DH, moving Robb Quinlan and Shea Hillenbrand into some kind of timeshare at third.
I don't really know what solution is more promising. I don't think either Wood or Aybar are particularly ready to hit in the majors, and Kendry's not off to a stirring start in the minors (though it's only been a couple of weeks, so it's too early to draw conclusions off of that), but the recent offensive ineptitude may lead to Wood or Morales getting the call just because things can't get worse. Both of those guys are capable of getting off to the hot start that Mike Napoli did last year, which would be a nice kick in the pants to a dormant lineup.
Under normal circumstances, I'd say just put Aybar there for a week and see what he can do. But with Maicer Izturis batting in the third spot, this is a lineup completely devoid of punch, just waiting to string single after single together to scratch together runs. Even if Vlad returns tomorrow and healthy, he can only bat when he comes up. So I wouldn't be surprised to see Wood or Morales get the call.
***
It would be churlish to blame John Lackey for the loss yesterday, but he did do some things to annoy me. He did struggle to locate his fastball from time to time, but was mostly getting good results from it, it seemed to me, so you can imagine my frustration when he kept slurving and slurving when he got in trouble.
(I don't know what to call that pitch. John called it a slider when he came up, even though it looks just like a curveball, just with a little bit of sweep to it. The announcers always called it a curveball, and last year in an interview Lackey referred to a curve and slider separately. I think the "slider" is some kind of cut fastball, I don't know; he doesn't seem to throw that one so much. So I'm calling his big breaking pitch a slurve. And you can't stop me.)
He had Shannon Stewart down 0-2 in the third, with no outs and runners on first and second, and slurved him to first base to load the bag. He did get Nick Swisher to ground into a forceout on the slurve, and then mislocated his fastball to allow a hit to Eric Chavez. But I thought the appearance against Stewart caused the trouble.
That didn't bother me so much as in the fifth, when Nick Swisher came up again, this time with a runner on second and two outs. Since he had got him with the slurve in his previous AB, Lackey went to it again, and got a couple over for a 1-2 count. I was hoping he's show Swisher the change away and bust him back inside with the fastball if necessary, but instead he kept throwing that slurve inside. He missed the strike zone three straight times, which brought up Eric Chavez.
So what does he do with Chavez? Slurve inside corner that Chavez wants nothing of, slurve for a ball, fastball way up and in, and then ... slurve hung inside that Chavez has no trouble timing, as Lackey has thrown like 45 straight of 'em before that meaningless fastball, line drive, base hit, run scored.
Lackey has that nice change-up against lefties, but he seems to abandon it when he gets in trouble.
Did you ever see the movie of The Hunt for Red October? The US submarines are having a bitch of a time tracking the Soviet sub, Red October, on their sonar, because the Red October has this crazy kind of engine that's hard to detect. But one of the US sonar operators figures out that something his computer is telling him is a "seismic anomaly" is really that crazy kind of engine. He explains that the computer was originally designed to track seismic anomalies (earthquakes), and when it gets confused, as it is by the Red October engine, it "runs back to momma" and declares whatever it's hearing as a seismic anomaly.
Anyway, John Lackey is like that computer. When he gets in trouble, he runs back to momma and throws breaking pitch after breaking pitch. Now, that's a great pitch, and it's his out pitch, and he's a terrific pitcher, but when you overuse it guys get used to it, they're not fooled, they time it, and they take it when it's a ball and hit it when it's a strike. Lackey has to make guys earn their hits more often, I think.
What was Lackey's last pitch of the day? One out, man on first, Nick Swisher up. Well-located fastball down, 4-6-3, and he's out of the inning. He's got to trust in that more often.
But until he gets runs, it ain't gonna matter.
As you know, Howie Kendrick has been placed on the DL, and is not expected back in the lineup for four to six weeks.
Howie is one of the only guys in the lineup who had his bat going, hitting 327/365/490 in his 14 games. He had made three errors at second, but otherwise was settling into a regular role somewhat nicely.
It is unclear what the Angels will do in Howie's absence, but we may be as close as one week away from Legs Figgins making his first appearance of the season, which will simplify matters; Figgins can return to third and send Maicer Izturis over to second, or vice versa.
What to do for the next week (or possibly beyond, if Figgins isn't able to come back in time)? The current on-roster solution would be to put Erick Aybar there. Aybar has plenty of defensive skills at short, but isn't as familiar with second. That's a frequent conversion, of course, but we don't know how skilled he may be on the pivot.
Another solution would be to bring up someone from the minors; Brandon Wood (off to an okay 293/373/534 in 58 at-bats at AAA, but with 18 strikeouts) could come up to play third (once again moving Ztu to the keystone) or Kendry Morales (314/340/412 in 51 AB) could come up to DH, moving Robb Quinlan and Shea Hillenbrand into some kind of timeshare at third.
I don't really know what solution is more promising. I don't think either Wood or Aybar are particularly ready to hit in the majors, and Kendry's not off to a stirring start in the minors (though it's only been a couple of weeks, so it's too early to draw conclusions off of that), but the recent offensive ineptitude may lead to Wood or Morales getting the call just because things can't get worse. Both of those guys are capable of getting off to the hot start that Mike Napoli did last year, which would be a nice kick in the pants to a dormant lineup.
Under normal circumstances, I'd say just put Aybar there for a week and see what he can do. But with Maicer Izturis batting in the third spot, this is a lineup completely devoid of punch, just waiting to string single after single together to scratch together runs. Even if Vlad returns tomorrow and healthy, he can only bat when he comes up. So I wouldn't be surprised to see Wood or Morales get the call.
***
It would be churlish to blame John Lackey for the loss yesterday, but he did do some things to annoy me. He did struggle to locate his fastball from time to time, but was mostly getting good results from it, it seemed to me, so you can imagine my frustration when he kept slurving and slurving when he got in trouble.
(I don't know what to call that pitch. John called it a slider when he came up, even though it looks just like a curveball, just with a little bit of sweep to it. The announcers always called it a curveball, and last year in an interview Lackey referred to a curve and slider separately. I think the "slider" is some kind of cut fastball, I don't know; he doesn't seem to throw that one so much. So I'm calling his big breaking pitch a slurve. And you can't stop me.)
He had Shannon Stewart down 0-2 in the third, with no outs and runners on first and second, and slurved him to first base to load the bag. He did get Nick Swisher to ground into a forceout on the slurve, and then mislocated his fastball to allow a hit to Eric Chavez. But I thought the appearance against Stewart caused the trouble.
That didn't bother me so much as in the fifth, when Nick Swisher came up again, this time with a runner on second and two outs. Since he had got him with the slurve in his previous AB, Lackey went to it again, and got a couple over for a 1-2 count. I was hoping he's show Swisher the change away and bust him back inside with the fastball if necessary, but instead he kept throwing that slurve inside. He missed the strike zone three straight times, which brought up Eric Chavez.
So what does he do with Chavez? Slurve inside corner that Chavez wants nothing of, slurve for a ball, fastball way up and in, and then ... slurve hung inside that Chavez has no trouble timing, as Lackey has thrown like 45 straight of 'em before that meaningless fastball, line drive, base hit, run scored.
Lackey has that nice change-up against lefties, but he seems to abandon it when he gets in trouble.
Did you ever see the movie of The Hunt for Red October? The US submarines are having a bitch of a time tracking the Soviet sub, Red October, on their sonar, because the Red October has this crazy kind of engine that's hard to detect. But one of the US sonar operators figures out that something his computer is telling him is a "seismic anomaly" is really that crazy kind of engine. He explains that the computer was originally designed to track seismic anomalies (earthquakes), and when it gets confused, as it is by the Red October engine, it "runs back to momma" and declares whatever it's hearing as a seismic anomaly.
Anyway, John Lackey is like that computer. When he gets in trouble, he runs back to momma and throws breaking pitch after breaking pitch. Now, that's a great pitch, and it's his out pitch, and he's a terrific pitcher, but when you overuse it guys get used to it, they're not fooled, they time it, and they take it when it's a ball and hit it when it's a strike. Lackey has to make guys earn their hits more often, I think.
What was Lackey's last pitch of the day? One out, man on first, Nick Swisher up. Well-located fastball down, 4-6-3, and he's out of the inning. He's got to trust in that more often.
But until he gets runs, it ain't gonna matter.
Labels: a real bummer, Brandon Wood, calamity, Erick Aybar, Howie Kendrick, injury, John Lackey, John Lackey (cowardice of), Kendry Morales, Legs Figgins, Maicer Izturis, Robb Quinlan, Shea Hillenbrand
Tuesday, April 03, 2007
THE GAME PLAN
Well, aside from John Lackey having a relatively short outing, Opening Day went pretty much according to plan. A strong enough outing from the starter, a few runs scrapped out here and there, and the bullpen closing the door in the last third of the game.
A few notes:
John Lackey did not look particularly good, with errant control of his fastball and slurve. He reverted back to the old pussy-footing around when he got behind in the count, getting cute with slurves (which weren't close enough to the strike zone to get anyone to bite) and foregoing his heat. Now, when Mark Teixeira is up with a runner in scoring position with two outs, fine, pitch around the guy. With guys on first and second and two outs? I'd prefer you not to walk the bases loaded, thanks.
And not only does this cowardice lead to baserunners, it also racks up the pitch count, which is going to keep Lackey from going deep into games, especially this early in the season.
Darren Oliver came in to face to left-handed batters and, shockingly, retired neither of them.
Oliver, over his career, hasn't had any kind of platoon advantage against the LHB (he's allowed an 810 OPS to RHB and 817 to LHB, a virtual tie). He's even had several seasons where lefties tag him even more than righties did, so he's miscast in a role where he's asked to only retire left-handers.
Are we so phobic of Casey Kotchman's "speed" leading to double plays that we're gonna hit-and-run with Shea Hillenbrand on base all the time? Okay, one of the instances last night was on a 3-2 count, so I dig that one. But late in the game a straight hit-and-run was put on early in the count; Casey flailed at a pitch at least a foot out of the strike zone to the side and at least a foot out of the strike zone toward the ground, and Hillenbrand got hosed from you to me. This was when Mike Wood was pitching; he couldn't find the plate at all there, and Kotchman drew a walk. The hit-and-run backfired there. Hillenbrand is no kind of speedster, so we should be careful about using this weapon.
It isn't the sort of thing you notice, but K-Rod exhibited some very nice pitching against Brad Wilkerson in the ninth. After falling behind 3-0, K-Rod came back with two fastballs to full the count. Instead of pulling a Lackey and getting cute with the breaking stuff, K-Rod kept coming at him with the fastball, garnering a flyout to deepest center.
While a fly to the warning track may look bad -- just a few feet another way and it's a home run! -- it was in fact the residue of design. With a three-run lead, Frankie knew that a home run wasn't going to hurt him, but that there's no point in walking a guy. If someone's going to reach base, make him earn it, don't give him a free pass. The K spotted his fastball perfectly on the outside corner, letting Wilkerson lay some wood on it in a place where he was unlikely to pull it over the rightfield fence or push it over the one in left. K-Rod let the ballpark work for him, and got one of the easier saves he should expect to see.
Well, aside from John Lackey having a relatively short outing, Opening Day went pretty much according to plan. A strong enough outing from the starter, a few runs scrapped out here and there, and the bullpen closing the door in the last third of the game.
A few notes:
And not only does this cowardice lead to baserunners, it also racks up the pitch count, which is going to keep Lackey from going deep into games, especially this early in the season.
Oliver, over his career, hasn't had any kind of platoon advantage against the LHB (he's allowed an 810 OPS to RHB and 817 to LHB, a virtual tie). He's even had several seasons where lefties tag him even more than righties did, so he's miscast in a role where he's asked to only retire left-handers.
While a fly to the warning track may look bad -- just a few feet another way and it's a home run! -- it was in fact the residue of design. With a three-run lead, Frankie knew that a home run wasn't going to hurt him, but that there's no point in walking a guy. If someone's going to reach base, make him earn it, don't give him a free pass. The K spotted his fastball perfectly on the outside corner, letting Wilkerson lay some wood on it in a place where he was unlikely to pull it over the rightfield fence or push it over the one in left. K-Rod let the ballpark work for him, and got one of the easier saves he should expect to see.
Labels: Casey Kotchman, Darren Oliver, Francisco Rodriguez, John Lackey, John Lackey (cowardice of), Shea Hillenbrand
