Thursday, September 27, 2007
GARY
So Gary Matthews Jr is injured, and may or not be available for the postseason. What would this mean for the Angels?
Well, first of all, let's take a look at how Matthews has done this year. As you may recall, there was some handwringing in the Halosphere when Matthews, after having put up the first good offensive season of his life, was signed to a deal that will keep him in Angel red until the year 2011. He did okay in the first two months, hitting 286/339/452 through May (an OPS+ of 111). Along with his solid defense, that was just fine.
But the second half has been nothing but struggles for Matthews, who has hit 211/296/392 since the All Star Game, and hasn't been completely healthy of late. Interestingly, if you add 75 points to that batting average, you get a line of 286/371/467, an improvement on his first half; he actually had more walks and extra-base power in the second half than in the first, but he wasn't getting the hits to fall in.
At any rate, as of now he's got a 98 OPS+, which ranks 10th out of the 21 major league center fielders with 120 or more games. His fielding stats aren't too hot, either.
Here's something simple: how Matthews has done the past few years by average, OBP, and slugging, as compared to the park-adjusted league average, reported by BB-Ref:
Oh, wait, I left out a year:
Without Matthews in the lineup, we could see any and all of these combinations:
Surprisingly (maybe), Maicer Izturis has also out-produced Gary (on a per-plate appearance basis, at any rate) this year, notching an OPS+ of 104. Ztu put up a 106 last year, so it seems like this may actually be his real level of ability. In fact, his last two years resemble each other quite strongly:
All things considered, I'd have to say this team could withstand Gary Matthews Jr's absence during the playoffs. I'm not saying that as a shot at Gary: the fact is this team has succeeded because of uncommon depth. I'll probably write about this sometime, but a lot of things have gone wrong for the Angels this year, but the team has managed to stay in front because of these seemingly endless reservoirs of guys like Willits and Izturis who can step in and perform at an above-average level when someone gets hurt.
I'm actually saddened by the prospect of Gary's being unable to play in October, as he signed with this team to get that shot, and regardless of my skepticism over his contract, he seems like a good guy who has worked hard and given his all, and I'd love to see him contribute. But the reason he can even ponder playing in October is that he's on a team with the foresight and resources to still get there even when nearly everything goes wrong.
Well, first of all, let's take a look at how Matthews has done this year. As you may recall, there was some handwringing in the Halosphere when Matthews, after having put up the first good offensive season of his life, was signed to a deal that will keep him in Angel red until the year 2011. He did okay in the first two months, hitting 286/339/452 through May (an OPS+ of 111). Along with his solid defense, that was just fine.
But the second half has been nothing but struggles for Matthews, who has hit 211/296/392 since the All Star Game, and hasn't been completely healthy of late. Interestingly, if you add 75 points to that batting average, you get a line of 286/371/467, an improvement on his first half; he actually had more walks and extra-base power in the second half than in the first, but he wasn't getting the hits to fall in.
At any rate, as of now he's got a 98 OPS+, which ranks 10th out of the 21 major league center fielders with 120 or more games. His fielding stats aren't too hot, either.
Here's something simple: how Matthews has done the past few years by average, OBP, and slugging, as compared to the park-adjusted league average, reported by BB-Ref:
Year AVG OBP SLGPretty consistent, huh?
2004 -.008 -.013 +.013
2005 -.018 -.016 +.003
2007 -.013 -.009 +.005
Oh, wait, I left out a year:
Year AVG OBP SLGSo, to the surprise of no one, except maybe the Angels, Gary Matthews Jr reverted to being the hitter he was before his "breakout" season; he's an average hitter. No more. No less.
2004 -.008 -.013 +.013
2005 -.018 -.016 +.003
2006 +.033 +.026 +.050
2007 -.013 -.009 +.005
Without Matthews in the lineup, we could see any and all of these combinations:
3B FigginsAs a hitter, Reggie Willits has been a bit better than Matthews so far this year. Willits, like Matthews, has slumped a bit after a hot start, but has still managed to hit 276/377/323 in the second half (not too far off of what I speculated he might do back in May, though I'm happy to say he has maintained his walk rate to a greater degree that I thought he would). By the numbers, his defense in center seems to be worse than Matthews', and this reflect my subjective view of their relative glovework, as well.
CF Willits
RF/DH Vlad/Rivera
3B Izturis
CF Willits
RF/DH Figgins/Vlad
3B Izturis
CF Figgins
RF Vlad/Rivera
Surprisingly (maybe), Maicer Izturis has also out-produced Gary (on a per-plate appearance basis, at any rate) this year, notching an OPS+ of 104. Ztu put up a 106 last year, so it seems like this may actually be his real level of ability. In fact, his last two years resemble each other quite strongly:
Year AVG OBP SLGIzturis might just be a better hitter than Matthews at this point, and seems to be a pretty good defensive option on the hot corner. And while Juan Rivera took some time to adjust, he is hitting 348/375/652 over the last two weeks, so he may be rearing to go, as well.
2006 +.024 +.032 -.016
2007 +.026 +.019 -.006
All things considered, I'd have to say this team could withstand Gary Matthews Jr's absence during the playoffs. I'm not saying that as a shot at Gary: the fact is this team has succeeded because of uncommon depth. I'll probably write about this sometime, but a lot of things have gone wrong for the Angels this year, but the team has managed to stay in front because of these seemingly endless reservoirs of guys like Willits and Izturis who can step in and perform at an above-average level when someone gets hurt.
I'm actually saddened by the prospect of Gary's being unable to play in October, as he signed with this team to get that shot, and regardless of my skepticism over his contract, he seems like a good guy who has worked hard and given his all, and I'd love to see him contribute. But the reason he can even ponder playing in October is that he's on a team with the foresight and resources to still get there even when nearly everything goes wrong.
Labels: Gary Matthews Jr, Juan Rivera, Maicer Izturis, Reggie Willits
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
WATCH LIST SUMMARY
Here is the last update.
The BB-Ref organizational stats are linked in the POSITION and PITCHER headers.
Thanks to these park factors provided by Dan Szymborski, I've included season-ending OPS+ and park-adjusted batting runs (a linear weights determination of how many runs each batter created above average) for each player. I also did ERA+ and pitching runs (how many earned runs each pitcher prevented) for the pitchers.
POSITION PLAYERS
Michael Collins, 1B, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
Hank Conger, C, A Cedar Rapids, BB/TR
Terry Evans, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
Nick Gorneault, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
Christopher Pettit, LF, A+ Rancho Cucamonga and A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
Sean Rodriguez, SS, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
Mark Trumbo, 1B, A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
Brandon Wood, SS, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
Watch Out:
PITCHERS
Nick Adenhart, RHSP, AA Arkansas
Jose Arredondo, RHSP, AAA Salt Lake, AA Arkansas, and A+ Rancho Cucamonga
Gustavo Espinoza, LHRP, Arizona League
Stephen Marek, RHSP, A Rancho Cucamonga
Tommy Mendoza, A Cedar Rapids, RHSP
Darren O'Day, RHRP, AA Arkansas and A+ Rancho Cucamonga
Sean O'Sullivan, RHSP, A Cedar Rapids
Steve Shell, RHSP/RP, AAA Salt Lake
Rich Thompson, RHRP, AAA Salt Lake and AA Arkansas
Watch Out:
A few random notes ... aside from Anthony Ortega, one guy who really jumped at me was Aaron Cook. He was solid (12 K to 4 BB, 4.15 ERA) in 13 innings in the Cal League after striking out 20 to only 1 walk (and a 0.81) ERA in just over 30 innings at Cedar Rapids. He's apparently another submariner, so that could be interesting ... Miguel Gonzalez also got good results at AA without great peripherals ... Robert Fish will definitely be on this list next year, as he performed very well (3.28 ERA, 77:31 SO:BB in 71.67 IP) for Tom Kotchman at Orem ... we'll also watch out for lefty reliever Douglas Brandt, who performed well at different levels ...
... 1B Christopher Garcia, 19 years old, played in only 20 games in the Arizona League, but managed 21 walks to 17 strikeouts and put up a 333/480/474 line. He's another Tom Kotchman Florida find; he played with Orem a bit, too, though not with as much success (10 BB to 21 K in 23 games) ... the top 10 Angel minor leaguers by batting runs and pitching runs, combined at all levels:
***
(Technical note on the offensive linear weights [feel free to skip]: what I did was apply the factors to each element, not apply a single run factor at the end of the process; there are no factors for triples, but that shouldn't be a big deal. Meaning, if a park inflates HR by 5% but deflates run-scoring as a whole by 2%, I adjusted the HR first and then added up the batting runs, instead of determining the total runs and using the run-scoring factor on that. As we're talking about minor leaguers, I thought it would be more instructive to do it that way, even though there's very little difference once it's all said and done.)
The BB-Ref organizational stats are linked in the POSITION and PITCHER headers.
Thanks to these park factors provided by Dan Szymborski, I've included season-ending OPS+ and park-adjusted batting runs (a linear weights determination of how many runs each batter created above average) for each player. I also did ERA+ and pitching runs (how many earned runs each pitcher prevented) for the pitchers.
POSITION PLAYERS
Michael Collins, 1B, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BRCollins had a relatively good August, but obviously didn't do anything to put himself into the organization's first base picture.
Now 429 104 18 3 5 12 70 5 4 242 286 333 70 -20
8/24 394 98 17 3 5 11 65 5 4 249 292 345
7/24 296 66 14 1 3 8 52 5 4 223 269 307
6/26 229 44 12 1 2 5 45 4 2 192 241 279
5/21 127 17 7 0 1 2 25 0 1 136 194 216
5/1 75 12 2 0 1 2 16 0 1 160 203 227
Hank Conger, C, A Cedar Rapids, BB/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BRHank had some injury troubles, but clearly had no trouble hitting when healthy and in the lineup. The only better hitter we had at Cedar Rapids, both in terms of OPS+ and BR, was Christopher Pettit, whom we'll see below.
Now 290 84 20 0 11 21 48 9 4 290 336 472 134 +12
8/24 262 73 17 0 9 19 45 9 4 279 329 447
7/24 213 60 16 0 8 16 41 7 3 282 336 469
6/26 213 60 16 0 8 16 41 7 3 282 336 469
5/21 123 32 6 0 6 8 16 6 0 260 311 455
5/1 68 18 2 0 3 4 8 4 0 265 306 426
Terry Evans, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BRTerry Evans ended up being a solid producer for AAA, but at age 25, didn't really do much of anything to make it look like he's going to make us regret the Gary Matthews Jr. signing. Could he even be a Juan Rivera fourth outfielder type? He has a good glove, and speed, but he'll need to get that strike zone under control to be that guy. The defense and speed do put him ahead of this guy at the same age, though:
Now 475 150 40 4 15 26 119 24 9 316 352 512 112 +10
8/24 439 138 37 4 14 21 110 22 9 314 347 513
7/24 341 106 28 3 13 12 87 15 6 311 334 525
6/26 260 86 23 3 11 11 60 13 6 331 358 569
5/21 156 50 13 3 6 9 42 11 4 321 355 558
Nick Gorneault, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BRNick finished strong over the past few months but, as you see, didn't even manage to be an above-average performer at his level. I do think he's better than this, but I don't think there's any room for him in this organization from here on out.
Now 471 123 24 1 19 58 108 17 8 261 346 437 95 - 3
8/24 433 107 20 1 16 56 103 16 6 247 337 409
7/24 341 80 17 0 12 41 83 12 4 235 322 390
6/26 276 60 12 0 9 35 63 11 3 217 310 359
5/21 151 36 10 0 3 18 34 8 2 238 327 364
5/1 81 15 4 0 3 9 17 5 2 185 283 346
Christopher Pettit, LF, A+ Rancho Cucamonga and A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BRLate-season slump accounted for, I think Pettit was definitely our system's Position Player of the Year. He led both of his minor league teams in OPS+ and BR, stole bases, showed versatility by getting a lot of time in center in addition to left, and the only guy in the organization with more doubles is Vladimir Guerrero. A very nice first full season for the local product.
Now 265 82 20 2 9 36 48 13 3 309 395 502 133 +15
Now 235 76 18 1 9 29 40 12 2 323 403 523
7/24 124 44 8 1 8 16 23 9 2 355 433 629
6/26 22 2 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 091 130 091
228 79 24 1 9 23 41 17 4 346 429 579 192 +30 Cedar Rapids
Sean Rodriguez, SS, AA Arkansas, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BRI've been a Sean Rodriguez supporter for awhile, mostly because any Angel prospect who controls the strike zone at even the lowest levels, and shows pop, is pretty rare. Rodriguez did hold his own at AA, but the Travelers saw better offensive seasons from third baseman Freddy Sandoval (see below) and second-sacker Adam Morrissey. Of course, S-Rod is two years younger than the former and four years younger the latter, and at 22 years of age is young for his competition. The new Arkansas park helped pitchers and killed home runs, so his raw stats are a bit better than they look, but Sean didn't really separate himself from the pack this year. That said, he's still quite young, and still a plus hitter at a premium defensive position.
Now 508 129 31 2 17 54 132 15 8 254 345 423 113 + 9
8/24 468 116 30 2 13 48 126 13 7 248 339 404
7/24 371 93 24 1 11 35 99 11 6 251 338 410
6/26 278 71 17 1 10 28 76 9 4 255 350 432
5/23 143 36 9 0 6 19 35 6 3 252 374 441
5/1 81 25 6 0 4 12 21 3 3 309 423 531
Mark Trumbo, 1B, A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BRMark Trumbo improved markedly in his second year in the Midwest League. Yes, he lost some walks, but also cut his strikeouts (one less K, but in over 40 less at-bats) and managed to hit for average (the league as a whole hit .255). The jump to the High-A Cal League next year may be a challenge, but it's also an opportunity for Trumbo to have a breakout year.
Now 471 128 27 2 14 34 98 10 8 272 326 427 118 + 8
Now 443 117 25 2 13 28 84 10 8 270 318 427
7/24 340 97 20 2 9 23 73 10 5 285 334 435
6/26 242 68 16 1 7 16 53 3 4 281 327 442
5/23 117 27 6 0 3 5 30 1 2 231 266 359
5/1 49 10 1 0 1 2 16 0 2 204 245 286
Brandon Wood, SS, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR
When AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BRI've mentioned this before, but right now Brandon projects as a good-fielding Dean Palmer plus a reasonable number of walks. I guess I can understand an "is that all there is?" reaction to that, but he's by far the youngest regular we had at AAA, and I think another year there will really help him harness his abilities. Right now, he's a .200 hitter in the major leagues, but with the pop of which he's capable and a decent grasp of the strike zone, he can be at least an adequate player by getting that up around .240 or so. I think he can do it, but I don't know that the results will be immediate.
Now 437 119 27 1 23 45 120 10 1 272 338 497 106 + 7
8/24 397 105 21 1 20 43 109 10 1 264 335 474
7/24 313 82 18 1 16 39 80 8 1 262 343 479
6/26 254 68 18 1 13 34 69 8 1 268 355 500
5/23 131 31 8 0 5 18 38 3 0 237 331 412
5/1 84 22 6 0 3 11 28 2 0 262 351 440
Watch Out:
Who Lvl AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS+ BRPeter Bourjos had some injury troubles over the course of the year, but his strikeouts-to-walk ratio needs to improve. Clay Fuller had a fine debute in the Arizona League. Ryan Mount also struggled with injury, and never got in a groove upon coming back. Norberto Ortiz started off hot but was in the same boat, missing time and not being in sync upon his return. Aaron Peel didn't follow up on what could have been a breakthrough 2006. P.J. Phillips strikes out more than you can imagine, but does well when he hits the ball and once he's on base. Can he fix his problems? Luis Rivera never played. Freddy Sandoval was Arkansas' best player. Hainley Statia is another guy who fell off after a good 2006; at the same age, Erick Aybar was more than holding his own with a .303 average at AA. Matthew Sweeney ranked third on his team in OPS+ and led in home runs.
Bourjos A 237 65 9 6 5 20 53 19 9 269 323 404 120 + 6
ClyFuller Azl 183 55 10 4 5 24 52 21 6 301 398 481
Mount A 303 76 11 3 7 29 70 19 6 251 320 376 103 + 2
Ortiz Azl 71 21 4 0 0 6 17 5 2 296 346 352
Peel AA 310 79 20 2 7 6 43 2 0 255 284 400 88 - 6
Phillips A 436 107 11 8 13 15 154 34 4 245 283 397 96 + 0
Rivera has not played
Sandoval AA 472 144 32 6 11 67 78 21 11 305 392 468 137 +26
Statia A+ 549 158 27 7 3 48 79 29 8 288 344 379 86 - 6
Sweeney A 439 114 29 2 18 38 88 7 7 260 324 458 127 +12
PITCHERS
Nick Adenhart, RHSP, AA Arkansas
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERA ERA+ PRThe only worry here is the strikeouts; Adenhart was a bit below average in a park that should have helped him. But with his age and groundball tendencies, I think there's a lot to be excited about. Just stay healthy, kid.
Now 10 8 0 26 26 153.0 158 7 116 65 3.65 112 + 8
8/24 9 7 0 24 24 142.0 143 7 106 61 3.74
7/24 7 3 0 18 18 107.0 112 4 78 43 3.36
6/26 6 2 0 14 14 83.7 87 4 61 37 3.46
5/23 3 2 0 8 8 47.3 43 0 35 21 2.68
5/1 3 1 0 5 5 33.7 24 0 27 10 0.80
Jose Arredondo, RHSP, AAA Salt Lake, AA Arkansas, and A+ Rancho Cucamonga
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERA ERA+ PRA weird season; Arredondo was doing very well at AA, but a tantrum on the mound when being removed from a game led to a demotion to the Cal League, where he stuck up the joint for awhile, then finally came on, and came up to the AAA club to help their postseason run. Physically, I'd imagine he's ready for AAA next year. Emotionally? I have no idea.
Now 0 0 0 2 0 3.0 2 0 1 2 3.00 162 + 1 AAA
Now 2 4 4 28 0 35.0 46 5 34 11 6.43 75 - 6 A+
8/24 2 4 4 27 0 34.0 44 4 33 11 6.09
7/24 0 2 2 15 0 16.0 24 3 13 6 9.56
6/26 0 0 2 4 0 3.7 7 0 5 4 18.90
6/26 0 1 10 23 0 25.0 16 2 28 12 2.52 162 + 5 AA
5/23 0 1 6 16 0 19.0 12 2 22 10 3.32
5/1 0 1 2 8 0 11.0 8 1 14 5 1.64
Gustavo Espinoza, LHRP, Arizona League
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERAHey, at least he's pitching again.
Now 0 0 0 2 0 1.3 0 0 3 1 6.75
Stephen Marek, RHSP, A Rancho Cucamonga
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERA ERA+ PRSome up and down in Marek's season. His peripherals aren't dominating, and he was actually outperformed by 21-year-old Anthony Ortega at the same level. Ortega kinda snuck up on me, so I'll take a closer look at him for next year. None of our starters at Rancho this year had knockout peripherals, it seems; Brok Butcher led the team in pitching runs, but managed only 59 K's in 110 innings, and then struggled mightily at the next level.
Now 8 10 0 25 25 134.0 133 17 106 49 4.30 112 + 8
8/24 8 9 0 23 23 121.0 123 15 95 45 4.61
7/24 5 7 0 17 17 89.0 91 10 70 35 4.75
6/26 5 4 0 13 13 69.7 64 5 56 30 4.02
5/23 3 2 0 7 7 38.7 34 2 23 15 3.52
5/1 1 0 0 3 3 15.0 12 1 7 6 2.40
Tommy Mendoza, A Cedar Rapids, RHSP
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERA ERA+ PRMendoza started late due to injury, and never really got his feet under him. This season didn't tell us anything about him. Hopefully he can stay healthy and develop more next year.
Now 2 4 0 12 11 53.7 67 5 38 16 4.89 75 - 8
8/24 2 4 0 10 9 44.0 54 5 30 13 4.30
7/24 0 3 0 4 3 12.3 18 4 11 6 9.00
Darren O'Day, RHRP, AA Arkansas and A+ Rancho Cucamonga
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERA ERA+ PRDarren O'Day was outrageous in the Cal League, but struggled a bit against the higher competition. As a sidearmer, you'd think he'd be harmed more by lefty hitters than righties, but at AA he actually held lefties to a 224/309/245 line while northpaws managed a 276/377/431. Part of that is attributable to his allowing only a .268 batting average on balls in play to LHB, but I really don't know what the hell's going on; I assume it's a small sample size, as his splits at A+ (a 599 OPS against LHB, but 316 from RHB) makes much more sense.
Now 3 4 10 29 0 29.3 27 3 22 14 4.03 101 + 0 AA
8/24 3 3 7 25 0 25.3 24 2 19 11 3.24
7/24 1 2 0 3 0 13.0 11 1 10 7 2.77
6/26 0 1 0 2 0 2.0 3 0 0 1 4.50
6/26 4 0 0 24 0 24.0 10 1 26 6 0.75 642 +11 A+ Final
Sean O'Sullivan, RHSP, A Cedar Rapids
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERA ERA+ PRBy pitching runs, O'Sullivan was our best minor league pitcher in 2007. Only Brok Butcher comes close (+20), though that includes his poor showing at AA. As I mentioned last time, though O'Sullivan's K/9 IP is below his league average (7.11 against 7.66), but he only faces approximately 4.11 guys per inning against the league's 4.33 -- his actual K rate -- per batter faced -- is only approximately 0.5% lower than his league's. Can he keep the hits allowed total low? We'll find out.
Now 10 7 0 25 25 158.3 136 6 125 40 2.22 163 +26
8/24 10 6 0 23 23 144.3 122 6 119 38 2.19
7/24 6 5 0 17 17 102.7 94 3 86 27 2.37
6/26 4 5 0 12 12 70.3 76 3 53 19 2.96
5/23 2 3 0 8 8 48.0 56 2 36 13 3.00
5/1 1 2 0 4 4 23.0 26 2 13 6 3.52
Steve Shell, RHSP/RP, AAA Salt Lake
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERA ERA+ PRA good example of the kind of environment our AAA team has, Shell's 4.76 ERA is better than the league average, once you adjust for park. He also had 13 good innings at AA, but he really seems to have fallen off the radar, and barely-above-average performance, mostly from the pen, isn't going to set off anyone's alarms.
Now 7 3 0 31 7 70.3 83 15 52 19 4.76 104 + 2
8/24 6 3 0 29 6 61.3 76 15 44 18 5.46
7/24 4 3 0 21 4 45.0 56 12 35 14 5.60
6/26 4 1 0 14 3 31.0 39 7 23 11 4.94
5/23 1 0 0 5 1 12.0 18 3 4 2 3.75
5/1 0 0 0 2 1 7.0 9 1 3 1 1.29
Rich Thompson, RHRP, AAA Salt Lake and AA Arkansas
When W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERA ERA+ PRRich Thompson led both his AA and AAA teams in pitching runs. He hasn't been as keen in his irregular appearances in the majors, so my dreams of a K-Rodesque rise have been dashed. Still have you noticed that he gives up runs when stretched? In his second outing, he threw two-thirds of an inning, then struggled the next inning. In his fifth, he pitched an inning and a third before giving up a run. He's pretty much a one-inning guy right now, it looks like.
Now 3 0 1 16 0 24.7 17 2 32 6 2.22 230 + 7 AAA
8/24 3 0 1 14 0 22.3 15 2 29 3 2.05
7/24 1 0 0 4 0 7.7 6 0 12 2 1.23
7/24 2 3 0 21 3 49.3 34 5 50 14 2.02 203 +12 AA
6/26 1 3 0 19 3 44.3 32 5 46 12 2.25
Watch Out:
Who Lvl W L SV G GS IP H HR SO BB ERA ERA+ PRTrevor Bell finished off the season with two terrific starts; somewhat in opposition to Sean O'Sullivan, the question with Bell next year is whether he will continue to give up so many hits despite good numbers in every other respect. Like Rich Thompson, Jason Bulger has earned a real look for next year's pen. Nick Green was terrific in the late summer, but, like so many of these guys, isn't missing many bats. Warner Madrigal had an exceptional year as Cedar Rapids' closer. Rafael Rodriguez finally got things together, somewhat, near the end of the season. Jordan Walden finished very strong, not walking anyone in his last 15 innings, and making an overall great debut. Young Il-Jung has been shut down due to injury.
Bell A 8 4 0 21 21 115.3 136 8 90 23 4.15 87 - 7
Bulger AAA 5 2 10 49 0 52.7 51 4 81 24 3.78 133 + 7
Green AA 10 8 0 28 28 178.3 164 17 107 32 3.69 111 + 8
Madrigal A 5 4 20 54 0 61.0 44 3 75 23 2.07 176 +11
Rodriguez AA 0 6 0 46 1 71.3 79 6 42 30 4.18 98 - 1
Walden R 1 1 0 15 15 64.3 49 3 63 17 3.75
Young R 0 1 0 3 3 9.0 10 1 9 6 9.00
A few random notes ... aside from Anthony Ortega, one guy who really jumped at me was Aaron Cook. He was solid (12 K to 4 BB, 4.15 ERA) in 13 innings in the Cal League after striking out 20 to only 1 walk (and a 0.81) ERA in just over 30 innings at Cedar Rapids. He's apparently another submariner, so that could be interesting ... Miguel Gonzalez also got good results at AA without great peripherals ... Robert Fish will definitely be on this list next year, as he performed very well (3.28 ERA, 77:31 SO:BB in 71.67 IP) for Tom Kotchman at Orem ... we'll also watch out for lefty reliever Douglas Brandt, who performed well at different levels ...
... 1B Christopher Garcia, 19 years old, played in only 20 games in the Arizona League, but managed 21 walks to 17 strikeouts and put up a 333/480/474 line. He's another Tom Kotchman Florida find; he played with Orem a bit, too, though not with as much success (10 BB to 21 K in 23 games) ... the top 10 Angel minor leaguers by batting runs and pitching runs, combined at all levels:
Pos Player Level Runs
OF Christopher Pettit A,A+ 37.5
3B Freddy Sandoval AA 26.0
SP Sean O'Sullivan A 25.7
RP Rich Thompson A+,AA,AAA 20.3
SP Brok Butcher A+,AA 20.0
OF Nathan Haynes AAA 16.1
SP Anthony Ortega A+ 14.3
RP Douglas Brandt A,A+,AAA 13.5
2B Adam Morrissey AA 12.1
3B Matthew Sweeney A 12.3
***
(Technical note on the offensive linear weights [feel free to skip]: what I did was apply the factors to each element, not apply a single run factor at the end of the process; there are no factors for triples, but that shouldn't be a big deal. Meaning, if a park inflates HR by 5% but deflates run-scoring as a whole by 2%, I adjusted the HR first and then added up the batting runs, instead of determining the total runs and using the run-scoring factor on that. As we're talking about minor leaguers, I thought it would be more instructive to do it that way, even though there's very little difference once it's all said and done.)
Labels: minor leagues, prospects, Watch List
Monday, September 24, 2007
FIRST STEP
Well, the Angels have won yet another division title. Ho-hum.
Obviously, it's a cause of celebration, especially given the fact that in terms of injury and performances by a few key players, this season has been somewhat cursed. But the depth of the organization allowed our Lads to survive injuries and struggles, and we outlasted some inferior teams, some fueled by good fortune (the M's) and other derailed by bad (the A's).
The Angels are technically in a push to get the best record in the league, and secure home-field advantage through the playoffs. Though this would be nice, I think priority number one has to be getting our guys set for the postseason, getting them rest while keeping them sharp. It can be a difficult balance, but I have faith in Mike Scioscia getting it right.
What of the postseason roster? This is definitely not set in stone, so let's take a look at what we have.
Here are the guys who I consider to be locks, provided everyone is healthy:
Catcher (2): Mike Napoli, Jeff Mathis
Infield (5): Casey Kotchman, Howie Kendrick, Chone Figgins, Orlando Cabrera, Maicer Izturis
Outfield (4): Garret Anderson, Gary Matthews Jr, Vlad Guerrero, Reggie Willits
Rotation (4): John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders
Bullpen (4): Francisco Rodriguez, Scot Shields, Justin Speier, Darren Oliver
So that's 19 of the 25 spots right there. I think most of these choices are not controversial; we need two catchers, one backup infielder, and one backup outfielder who can play each spot. We'll likely only use three starters in the first round, and I think Jered should have that third spot, but you'll probably want the lefty as an option and/or as a long man. The bullpen guys are our top bullpen guys.
So that leaves six spots for some combination of:
Robb Quinlan
Kendry Morales
Erick Aybar
Juan Rivera
Nathan Haynes
Ervin Santana
Bartolo Colon
Dustin Moseley
Chris Bootcheck
First of all, I don't think we need both of Aybar and Haynes; Willits can fill the pinch-running slot in games he doesn't start, and between he and Ztu we've got the skill positions covered. If I had to pick one, it might actually be Haynes. He's not reliable offensively, but he can deliver the mail on the basepaths, and is a far more accomplished basestealer than Aybar. Five spots left.
Has Juan Rivera earned a spot? His bat looks good, he can hit lefties, he can spot the outfield corners.
It might seem odd to not include Q, given his time against lefties this year, but the fact is that he hasn't really bashed southpaws this year as he normally has. But another fact is that Kendry hasn't done well against lefties, either.
I don't know if there would be room for all three of those guys, given their redundant skills. I'm prone to say that Rivera and Kendry should get the spots, even though that kinda sucks for Q, but it's hard to say. Giving two of them spots leaves three for the pitching staff.
Bartolo Colon's health is something of a question mark in my mind, even though he (apparently, it was a rare game I didn't watch) pitched well on Saturday. I'd be shocked if he were given a starting spot in the postseason, given the inconsistency of his pitching and health this year. Would he still be effective coming out of the bullpen?
And the same questions plague us with Ervin, except for the injury concern. Would they carry both into October? I can see it happening, if Bartolo's body allows it. Neither Bootcheck nor Moseley are great shakes, either, and if push comes to shove I'd rather see Ervin pitching when it matters than either of them. Of course, one of them should get the last spot, just for mop-up duty.
That would give us 14 position players and 11 pitchers, which sounds reasonable. For the shorter series, we could even cut down on the pitching (either cutting out Bootcheck/Moseley or Colon and Santana), allowing room for either one more runner (Aybar) or bat (one of the Rivera/Morales/Q troika).
We actually have more guys with cases to make the roster than actual roster spots to dole out, which is a sign of strength. It'll be interesting to see who Mike elects to take into the divisional round with him.
Obviously, it's a cause of celebration, especially given the fact that in terms of injury and performances by a few key players, this season has been somewhat cursed. But the depth of the organization allowed our Lads to survive injuries and struggles, and we outlasted some inferior teams, some fueled by good fortune (the M's) and other derailed by bad (the A's).
The Angels are technically in a push to get the best record in the league, and secure home-field advantage through the playoffs. Though this would be nice, I think priority number one has to be getting our guys set for the postseason, getting them rest while keeping them sharp. It can be a difficult balance, but I have faith in Mike Scioscia getting it right.
What of the postseason roster? This is definitely not set in stone, so let's take a look at what we have.
Here are the guys who I consider to be locks, provided everyone is healthy:
Catcher (2): Mike Napoli, Jeff Mathis
Infield (5): Casey Kotchman, Howie Kendrick, Chone Figgins, Orlando Cabrera, Maicer Izturis
Outfield (4): Garret Anderson, Gary Matthews Jr, Vlad Guerrero, Reggie Willits
Rotation (4): John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders
Bullpen (4): Francisco Rodriguez, Scot Shields, Justin Speier, Darren Oliver
So that's 19 of the 25 spots right there. I think most of these choices are not controversial; we need two catchers, one backup infielder, and one backup outfielder who can play each spot. We'll likely only use three starters in the first round, and I think Jered should have that third spot, but you'll probably want the lefty as an option and/or as a long man. The bullpen guys are our top bullpen guys.
So that leaves six spots for some combination of:
Robb Quinlan
Kendry Morales
Erick Aybar
Juan Rivera
Nathan Haynes
Ervin Santana
Bartolo Colon
Dustin Moseley
Chris Bootcheck
First of all, I don't think we need both of Aybar and Haynes; Willits can fill the pinch-running slot in games he doesn't start, and between he and Ztu we've got the skill positions covered. If I had to pick one, it might actually be Haynes. He's not reliable offensively, but he can deliver the mail on the basepaths, and is a far more accomplished basestealer than Aybar. Five spots left.
Has Juan Rivera earned a spot? His bat looks good, he can hit lefties, he can spot the outfield corners.
It might seem odd to not include Q, given his time against lefties this year, but the fact is that he hasn't really bashed southpaws this year as he normally has. But another fact is that Kendry hasn't done well against lefties, either.
I don't know if there would be room for all three of those guys, given their redundant skills. I'm prone to say that Rivera and Kendry should get the spots, even though that kinda sucks for Q, but it's hard to say. Giving two of them spots leaves three for the pitching staff.
Bartolo Colon's health is something of a question mark in my mind, even though he (apparently, it was a rare game I didn't watch) pitched well on Saturday. I'd be shocked if he were given a starting spot in the postseason, given the inconsistency of his pitching and health this year. Would he still be effective coming out of the bullpen?
And the same questions plague us with Ervin, except for the injury concern. Would they carry both into October? I can see it happening, if Bartolo's body allows it. Neither Bootcheck nor Moseley are great shakes, either, and if push comes to shove I'd rather see Ervin pitching when it matters than either of them. Of course, one of them should get the last spot, just for mop-up duty.
That would give us 14 position players and 11 pitchers, which sounds reasonable. For the shorter series, we could even cut down on the pitching (either cutting out Bootcheck/Moseley or Colon and Santana), allowing room for either one more runner (Aybar) or bat (one of the Rivera/Morales/Q troika).
We actually have more guys with cases to make the roster than actual roster spots to dole out, which is a sign of strength. It'll be interesting to see who Mike elects to take into the divisional round with him.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
PITCH MOVEMENT
Hey gang.
Man, I've been a slacker this year.
Anyway, things are looking good for our heroes. I'm not completely optimistic about our chances in the postseason, but barring the biggest collapse in baseball history, we'll get there, and that's an achievement worth noting. Of course, this is a team designed to do more than just make the playoffs, and expectations are high, so I see the impending division title as more of a stepping stone than as an actual accomplishment.
I'll have my Watch List Summary up later this week, hopefully, and will probably be doing some kind of season summary/postseason preview when the time comes. But today I was reading this John Walsh article over at the Hardball Times and figured I'd pass it along.
I don't know if you've been following this, but on the MLB.com Gameday feature (their gamecast thing), most games track each pitch by a variety of measures that reflect its velocity and break. This is giving researchers opportunity to really break down what kind of pitches different pitchers have in their repertoire. Walsh has been at the forefront of this, and explains a bit in that article I link. He produces graphics that plot "pitches on a two-dimensional scatterplot, with the vertical and horizontal axes representing the pitch movement," with velocity "indicated by the color of each point."
He also links to scatterplots for various pitchers (organized alphabetically, pitchers with last names beginning A through E, F through L, M through R, and S through Z). Let's see what we can learn about various Angel pitchers from these plots.
Chris Bootcheck
Chris' fastball is pretty consistently in the low-90s. He really only seems to have two pitches, with a low-80s breaking ball that sometimes dips below 80. It looks like he also has a high-80s two-seamer or cutter, which has a similar horizontal movement to his curve, but obviously less vertical drop.
Bartolo Colon
Bartolo's velocity this year has been mostly acceptable, in the low-90s with his fastball a decent amount of the time. Of course, his four-seamer used to be in the mid- to high-90s. Colon's never really had a devastating breaking ball, and his slider has a lot less break than some of the other guys.
Kelvim Escobar
I've been interested to see how Kelvim's repertoire would look, given his smörgåsbord of pitches. His four-seam and two-seam fastballs are pretty evident. He also has two pitches in the 80-85 mph range; one -- his change -- has action substantially similar to his fastballs (though it breaks less horizontally), while the other -- his forkball/splitter -- breaks down. That's his "change/splitter combo" Rex is always chattering about on the telecasts, and when Escobar's in command of those pitches, it's incredibly effective. Add in his slider -- which moves just like his splitter, only slower -- and it's clear why he's been so effective in Angel red.
John Lackey
Lackey's another guy I thought we could learn about here. He came up as a fastball/slider guy, then they starting calling the slider a curve or a slurve when he started throwing some other slider/cutter thing, and last year he introduced a change to the whole mess. His fastball is clear on the chart, and in the middle of all the fastball plots is a pitch that runs 80-85: that's his change, and it moves similarly to his fastball, only with a bit more of a tail away from the left-handed batter.
His breaking balls are also fairly clear. The biggest break belongs to the big curve, which is in the mid- to high-70s. Another pitch in the low 80s has slightly less break. So that's his slider. It's of a similar velocity to his change, but moves in the opposite way.
Dustin Moseley
Moseley throws a straight change that in movement looks exactly like his fastball. He also has a slow curve that runs pretty close to 12-to-6.
Francisco Rodriguez
One notable thing about Frankie's fastball is its lack of horizontal movement. His change, however, is not too dissimilar to John Lackey's, though less extreme. His killer pitch, as we all know, is his breaking ball. I don't really think Frankie has two different breaking balls; he does get a bit more break when the pitch is slower than 80 mph then when it's in the low-80s, but I think that's physics as much as anything.
Ervin Santana
Ervin's fastball is consistently in the low-90s; velocity has not been his problem. Watching on TV, I often have trouble delineating Santana's change and slider, and this chart shows exactly why: he has two pitches of nearly identical break (more horizontal than vertical), one in the low- to mid-80s and one in the mid- to high-70s. He also has a smattering of pitches in the 80-85 range that move just like his fastball; I don't know if that's a straight change or a breaking ball that just doesn't break. We don't really have the data, but it would be interesting to compare his chart to last year's (when he was so much more successful) to see what differences there may be.
Joe Saunders
Joe's change is effective because it's movement is very close to his fastball's (with just a tad more drop). His high-70s curve has more vertical than horizontal movement.
Scot Shields
Scottie has the biggest gap between his fastball and slider, in terms of movement. His fastball is very consistent in velocity, and always rides back toward the third-base line. His slider is nearly as extreme in the opposite direction, and tends to straddle the 80 mph line (I've never gotten the impression that he has two breaking balls, and the movement on his pitches in that region are pretty much the same).
Justin Speier
I was surprised that Speier's fastball hits the high-80s as much as it does; it does ride up and in to the right-handed hitter, and is actually pretty similar to Shields' (though Speier's appears to be more consistent in its movement). I'm not really sure what his other two pitches are; I know he throws the splitter, I assume that's the one in the high-70s with more downward break, and the low-80s pitch with less break is a sinker or change; however, that slower pitch may be a slider (it's similar to Kelvim's slider) and the faster the splitter. Because he doesn't throw hard, there isn't a lot of variance between the velocity of Speier's different pitches, and none of them have a substantial horizontal break.
Jered Weaver
Like Frankie, Jered's fastball doesn't have much movement. His changeup, however, is substantially similar to Joe Saunders', only coming from the other side, of course. I'm surprised to see that his slider looks somewhat like Ervin's, as on TV it seems to have much more break than that.
Summary
Here is a chart that tries to break down each pitcher's pitch by break; the coordinates are (horizontal, vertical). There's a lot of guesswork, as I'm really just eyeballing the chart and guessing at where the average for each guy's pitch is, but it can let us know which pitchers have similar pitches.
As one might expect, John Lackey's curve is by far the biggest, while Frankie and Shields have the biggest slider. Kelvim and Speier get similar action on their splitters.
Anyway, that's that.
Man, I've been a slacker this year.
Anyway, things are looking good for our heroes. I'm not completely optimistic about our chances in the postseason, but barring the biggest collapse in baseball history, we'll get there, and that's an achievement worth noting. Of course, this is a team designed to do more than just make the playoffs, and expectations are high, so I see the impending division title as more of a stepping stone than as an actual accomplishment.
I'll have my Watch List Summary up later this week, hopefully, and will probably be doing some kind of season summary/postseason preview when the time comes. But today I was reading this John Walsh article over at the Hardball Times and figured I'd pass it along.
I don't know if you've been following this, but on the MLB.com Gameday feature (their gamecast thing), most games track each pitch by a variety of measures that reflect its velocity and break. This is giving researchers opportunity to really break down what kind of pitches different pitchers have in their repertoire. Walsh has been at the forefront of this, and explains a bit in that article I link. He produces graphics that plot "pitches on a two-dimensional scatterplot, with the vertical and horizontal axes representing the pitch movement," with velocity "indicated by the color of each point."
He also links to scatterplots for various pitchers (organized alphabetically, pitchers with last names beginning A through E, F through L, M through R, and S through Z). Let's see what we can learn about various Angel pitchers from these plots.
Chris Bootcheck
Chris' fastball is pretty consistently in the low-90s. He really only seems to have two pitches, with a low-80s breaking ball that sometimes dips below 80. It looks like he also has a high-80s two-seamer or cutter, which has a similar horizontal movement to his curve, but obviously less vertical drop.
Bartolo Colon
Bartolo's velocity this year has been mostly acceptable, in the low-90s with his fastball a decent amount of the time. Of course, his four-seamer used to be in the mid- to high-90s. Colon's never really had a devastating breaking ball, and his slider has a lot less break than some of the other guys.
Kelvim Escobar
I've been interested to see how Kelvim's repertoire would look, given his smörgåsbord of pitches. His four-seam and two-seam fastballs are pretty evident. He also has two pitches in the 80-85 mph range; one -- his change -- has action substantially similar to his fastballs (though it breaks less horizontally), while the other -- his forkball/splitter -- breaks down. That's his "change/splitter combo" Rex is always chattering about on the telecasts, and when Escobar's in command of those pitches, it's incredibly effective. Add in his slider -- which moves just like his splitter, only slower -- and it's clear why he's been so effective in Angel red.
John Lackey
Lackey's another guy I thought we could learn about here. He came up as a fastball/slider guy, then they starting calling the slider a curve or a slurve when he started throwing some other slider/cutter thing, and last year he introduced a change to the whole mess. His fastball is clear on the chart, and in the middle of all the fastball plots is a pitch that runs 80-85: that's his change, and it moves similarly to his fastball, only with a bit more of a tail away from the left-handed batter.
His breaking balls are also fairly clear. The biggest break belongs to the big curve, which is in the mid- to high-70s. Another pitch in the low 80s has slightly less break. So that's his slider. It's of a similar velocity to his change, but moves in the opposite way.
Dustin Moseley
Moseley throws a straight change that in movement looks exactly like his fastball. He also has a slow curve that runs pretty close to 12-to-6.
Francisco Rodriguez
One notable thing about Frankie's fastball is its lack of horizontal movement. His change, however, is not too dissimilar to John Lackey's, though less extreme. His killer pitch, as we all know, is his breaking ball. I don't really think Frankie has two different breaking balls; he does get a bit more break when the pitch is slower than 80 mph then when it's in the low-80s, but I think that's physics as much as anything.
Ervin Santana
Ervin's fastball is consistently in the low-90s; velocity has not been his problem. Watching on TV, I often have trouble delineating Santana's change and slider, and this chart shows exactly why: he has two pitches of nearly identical break (more horizontal than vertical), one in the low- to mid-80s and one in the mid- to high-70s. He also has a smattering of pitches in the 80-85 range that move just like his fastball; I don't know if that's a straight change or a breaking ball that just doesn't break. We don't really have the data, but it would be interesting to compare his chart to last year's (when he was so much more successful) to see what differences there may be.
Joe Saunders
Joe's change is effective because it's movement is very close to his fastball's (with just a tad more drop). His high-70s curve has more vertical than horizontal movement.
Scot Shields
Scottie has the biggest gap between his fastball and slider, in terms of movement. His fastball is very consistent in velocity, and always rides back toward the third-base line. His slider is nearly as extreme in the opposite direction, and tends to straddle the 80 mph line (I've never gotten the impression that he has two breaking balls, and the movement on his pitches in that region are pretty much the same).
Justin Speier
I was surprised that Speier's fastball hits the high-80s as much as it does; it does ride up and in to the right-handed hitter, and is actually pretty similar to Shields' (though Speier's appears to be more consistent in its movement). I'm not really sure what his other two pitches are; I know he throws the splitter, I assume that's the one in the high-70s with more downward break, and the low-80s pitch with less break is a sinker or change; however, that slower pitch may be a slider (it's similar to Kelvim's slider) and the faster the splitter. Because he doesn't throw hard, there isn't a lot of variance between the velocity of Speier's different pitches, and none of them have a substantial horizontal break.
Jered Weaver
Like Frankie, Jered's fastball doesn't have much movement. His changeup, however, is substantially similar to Joe Saunders', only coming from the other side, of course. I'm surprised to see that his slider looks somewhat like Ervin's, as on TV it seems to have much more break than that.
Summary
Here is a chart that tries to break down each pitcher's pitch by break; the coordinates are (horizontal, vertical). There's a lot of guesswork, as I'm really just eyeballing the chart and guessing at where the average for each guy's pitch is, but it can let us know which pitchers have similar pitches.
4-Fastball 2-Fastball Curve Change Slider SplitterAs you can see, just about everyone's four-seamer is substantially similar (in movement, not necessarily speed), though Bootcheck, Frankie, and Weaver are kind of outliers together. I made a separation between four- and two-seamers based on velocity, mostly, plus with Shields I just assume it's a two-seamer because of the crazy movement, I don't actually know. With Moseley, you see that it moves the same, so it's probably just the one kind of pitch vacillating between 89 and 91 or so.
Bootcheck -3,10 3, 4 3, 0
Colon -8, 8 -9, 9 -7, 7 1, 2
Escobar -8,11 -1, 7 -1,11 1,-2 0,1
Lackey -9,10 -3,11 8,-4 -9, 9 1, 3
Moseley -9,10 -9,10 2,-7 -9,10
Rodriguez -1,12 -4, 6 5,-4
Santana -6,10 3, 1 2, 1
Saunders 9, 9 -1,-4 6,10
Shields -9, 9 4,-9
Speier -9, 9 -1, 5 -1, 0 1,1
Weaver -1,12 -6,11 3, 1
As one might expect, John Lackey's curve is by far the biggest, while Frankie and Shields have the biggest slider. Kelvim and Speier get similar action on their splitters.
Anyway, that's that.
