Thursday, August 30, 2007
THAT WAS OUR BROOMSTICK
Of course, not everything went right, and our Lads have to keep up their game over the next month. John Lackey, incredibly, was able to dominate despite suffering from strep throat; I haven't had that since elementary school, but I certainly remember it being terrible, so that's an impressive outing all the more. Hopefully he gets better soon, as I can't really imagine him being able to keep it up while suffering illness.
And the enigma of Ervin Santana only continued this week, and hit what is likely his nadir. It's hard to imagine The Magic returning to the rotation as long as the division is still in dispute, but youneverknow, though even if he doesn't we may see him throwing some junk innings out of the pen. As it's been all season, I'm hard-pressed to come up with any explanation's for Ervin's deterioration. But watching him on Tuesday reminded me of ... well, me. I was at the driving range this past weekend, and my entire swing was out of sync, and nothing I could do could get me back on track. It was my worst trip to a range ever, including when I was a small child. Ervin on the mound reminded me of that experience.
We were counting on Ervin this year, and the plan has always been to count on him next year, as well. That appears to be in question, though given his track record, youth, and raw material, I would assume that he'll go into spring training with at least an opportunity to regain his rotation spot. I'm pulling for him, of course; it's always shocking to see any player, especially a young and (presumably) healthy pitcher, fall apart, and hopefully the king's men can put him back together.
Jered Weaver finished off the sweep.. His command was a bit better than his previous start, as he cut down his walks infinitely, but he gave up one more earned run and struck out the same number of batters despite pitching one more whole inning. Jered's ERA+ of 114 ranks 20th out of the 44 AL pitchers with 125+ innings pitched, and tied for 37th out of the 96 major league pitchers above that threshold. Of course, this is Jered's age 24 season, and at that same age, John Lackey was posting an ERA+ of 92, Ervin Santana one of 67, and Bartolo Colon an 83 in less than 100 innings. Jered's brother, Jeff, whose presence on the mound against us Tuesday meant that I never lost hope after Ervin got buried in the first, did manage a 111 that season, fairly close to Jered's mark. However, Jeff only posted an 89 the season before, unlike Jered and his 171.
Jered Weaver has now thrown 256 innings, posting an ERA+ of 136, with rather strong peripherals. Amongst starting pitchers in major league history who had thrown between 200 and 300 innings through the age of 24, Jered's ERA+ is tied for 7th out of 157. His innings pitched total ranks just above the middle of that group, at 65th, yet he manages to rank 10th in strikeouts, 24th in least walks issued, and 4th in wins -- it helps that he 9th in strikeouts per 9 innings and 18th in least walks per 9.
Of course, the season's not over, so we can look at this again over the winter. And there is a long-term question with his health, as there is with any young pitcher. Note Aaron Sele, whose first two season resemble Jered's first two in certain respects. He followed those two seasons with a season where he only managed six starts, presumably due to medical reasons. He was never the same pitcher, and his story is not unique.
At any rate, just as Jered is positioned to have a productive career if he stays on track, so also our team is now very much in the driver's seat as they look to win their third division title in the past four seasons.
Labels: Ervin Santana, Jered Weaver, John Lackey
Friday, May 04, 2007
DESCENT
Most impressive in his outing was that he issued only one walk. He did give up 11 hits, more than you'd like to see, but as we know that's the sort of thing that evens out over time; when you challenge batters to earn their way on base, sometimes they do, but more often they don't. The fact that he was pounding the strike zone was good to see; in his previous losses this year, he had walked 13 batters in 14 innings, which is simply unacceptable.
Jered Weaver still hasn't had an ideal start, by his standards, but let it be known that the first two runs he allowed yesterday were both by baserunners who should never have been on base in the first place. Gary Matthews Jr.'s elliptical paths to flying baseballs sometimes cost us and sometimes don't, and yesterday cost us big when his incompetence led to a Ross Gload triple. Reggie Willits mis-read a ball in the fourth that led to a lead-off double. With a pitcher like Weaver on the mound, the outfield has to be on their game, and they weren't here. Still, his peripheral numbers -- 9 strikeouts against 2 unintentional walks and 7 hits in six innings -- were solid, and in the long run he'll be fine.
The real problem the last two games, as it has been and will be again, was the offense. Players not named Vladimir Guerrero went 3-for-30 yesterday with one walk and no extra-base hits; the day before, they were 6-for-28 with one walk and three doubles. That adds up to a 155/183/207 line for Non-Vlads over the two games, and we're simply not going to win when that happens. And as currently constituted, this is an offense incapable of scoring runs in a hurry; Matthews is the only semi-legitimate power threat in the lineup outside of Vlad (unless you want to count Shea Hillenbrand, who has one extra-base hit in 87 AB this year, or the struggling Mike Napoli), which means the singles have to string together to make the runs happen. Casey Kotchman's season has been fits and starts so far, but hopefully he can step up behind Vlad and make some run production ensue.
Labels: Casey Kotchman, Ervin Santana, Gary Matthew Jr (scenic routes to the ball of), Gary Matthews Jr, Jered Weaver, Mike Napoli, Reggie Willits, Shea Hillenbrand, Vladimir Guerrero
Monday, April 30, 2007
WEEKEND DELIGHT
So, no complaints about the weekend series in Chicago. Well, Ervin Santana did pitch horribly Friday night -- he couldn't locate, couldn't throw strikes, and when he did throw strikes, the ball was getting hammered. He must have gotten about four outs on scorched liners in that game. The numbers may not make it seem that bad, but it was an awful start, and he easily could have given up more runs.(In 28 innings this year, Ervin has K'd 20 batters, which is fine, but has walked 15, which is trouble. He needs to regain the consistency of command we've seen him have the last two years, and at home thus far in 2007.)
The offense played horribly in that game, as well, squandering opportunity after opportunity. That's a game we probably should have lost 12-10 or something.
But everything got better the next two days. Jered Weaver pitched pretty well Saturday. His command and location probably 100% where he'd want it to be, and his awesome strike-to-ball ratio was somewhat inflated by the White Sox fouling off pitch after pitch, but you can't complain about the results. A few line drives for hits, sure, but also some bloopers, and not once did he allow anything worse than a single. Kelvim had a similarly strong start yesterday, allowing only a home run to The Punter, which, though an embarrassment, only brought home two runs.
Legs Figgins returns to the lineup tonight. Pending Maicer Izturis' hamstring, this may send Erick Aybar back to the bench. Izturis and Aybar have produced nearly identically with the bat so far; Ztu doesn't have much power, but what power he does have balances out the on-base advantage Aybar has thus far. I am a confirmed skeptic regarding Aybar's readiness to produce offensively at the major league level, but his performance since stepping into the lineup for Howie Kendrick (282/317/308 in 39 AB) hasn't really done anything to prove me right or wrong.
The problem with Aybar's offense is that it's completely dependent on his batting average. He doesn't draw walks, he doesn't steal bases, and he doesn't have power. Kendrick may not draw walks either, but he's got some pop and steals bases with some efficiency. It would behoove Aybar to step up some other part of his game -- refining his basestealing skills, working counts -- to accompany his strong defense.
At any rate, a healthy Figgins should be good for this lineup right now. I don't know that he would produce a lot more than Izturis in the long term, but I think his baserunning and glove are definitely better than Ztu's at this point. But Maicer is holding down the fort, and despite some inconsistency with the bat has not dragged the team down.
Figgins' return also means that Brandon Wood has been returned to Salt Lake. He wasn't ready, of course, and only got a couple of games as a sampler of the future. He's going to need to recognize breaking pitches better, and know which ones to spit on and which ones he can drive. He'll need time in AAA to develop his talents, but he is only 22, so he has plenty of time to do so.
Finally, long-time readers may recall that I would occasionally post updates on some of our more prominent minor league players. I should have the first edition for this season up tomorrow at the latest.
Labels: Brandon Wood, Erick Aybar, Ervin Santana, Jered Weaver, Kelvim Escobar, Legs Figgins, Maicer Izturis
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
I was unable to post yesterday; if I had, my post would have been titled MORE LIKE IT and would have celebrated our sweep of the Mariners. Alas, last night's game put a damper on that, but I'll cover it nonetheless.
Joe Saunders didn't have a great game on Friday, and got some help from some atom balls, but he kept his composure through a few jams, and you can't complain about going six innings without allowing a run. It was nice to see Saunders succeed in his Virginia Tech hat; the game was obviously significant to him and likely of some significance to some of his fellow Hokies, so that was a nice story all-around.
Saturday brought us the return of Bartolo Colon. Though he only notched one strikeout, he had good velocity early in the game and demonstrated good command of his pitches. When Bartolo is on, he'll often gain velocity as the game progresses; that did not happen here -- perhaps partially due to his tweaked ankle. At any rate, it was good to see the Fat Man back in action and productive, a large boon to the team.
Sunday saw Ervin Santana return to form. The Kid was locating his fastball on the corners and getting his slider over for strikes. With everything working, Ervin was able to wiggle out of a couple of jams (a good sign after his jamtastic previous starts) and put up a strong start.
Much has been made of the disparity in Santana's performance on the home and road, and I do intend to take a look at it some time, but my null hypothesis is that it's all a crazy fluke. There's no real reason he should struggle on the road and dominate at home; there's no unique characteristic of Angels Stadium that would seem to benefit him. Remember, John Lackey also had a stark home-road difference in 2003 and 2004, a trend that eventually corrected itself (and even reversed itself, slightly) in the following two seasons. Was there a reason for that? Sometimes these things just take awhile to shake out.
Anyway, while Ervin excelled by getting his slider in the zone on Sunday, Jered Weaver got rocked by failing to do so Monday night. His location was off; it seemed that the culprit was an elusive release point, as Jered would miss consistently high and then, perhaps overcompensating, consistently low, or vice versa. His slider was missing well outside to right-handed hitters, and missing the zone healthily against southbats; recognizing this, Tiger hitters were able to sit on Jered's fastball, a pitch that is missing a few miles per hour from last year. Given that Weaver the Younger couldn't locate his fastball, either, this was a source of much trouble.
(When he did get the slider over, everything was shiny. He threw two good sliders to Gary Sheffield in the first, the only two he threw for strikes in the whole inning [technically Ivan Rodriguez got a hit off of a slider, but it was comfortably out of the strike zone, but elevated so that I-Rod could get it to the right-center gap]. He also got a strike two on Brandon Inge by getting his slider over the outside corner, and while the next one was outside, Inge had to respect his ability to locate the breaking ball, and wasn't able to stop his swing once he realized the pitch was too far away. Once you establish that breaking pitch in the zone, batters have to respect, and then you can get away with throwing it out of the zone. Curtis Granderson followed, Jered lost the touch on his slider, Granderson singled off a fastball, and the rally was on.)
That lack of velocity is the only warning sign that Weaver may still be injured, or at the very least not fully recovered or prepped for the season. We don't know, of course. The location problems don't really bother me, as though he wasn't quite sharp against Oakland, he only threw one egregious pitch in that game. But as long as he's healthy, I'm unworried.
Labels: Bartolo Colon, Ervin Santana, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Our "team's" performance is simply making analysis redundant right now. We all know what happened last night -- Jered Weaver basically threw one bad pitch, that hanging slider to left -- but one bad pitch it two bad pitches too many in a lineup where Orlando Cabrera bats third. Add into the equation an outfield that can neither track nor catch flyballs, and it's a recipe for disaster.
The wind was bad last night, so I should give Gary Matthews Jr. a pass for misplaying the Eric Chavez double that preceded (by two batters) Bobby Crosby's home run, but the fact is I've noted Matthews taking the scenic route to flyballs before. It cost us a hit in Ervin's second start -- not that one hit really made a big difference the way he was pitching -- and it may cost us more in the future. It's too early to make any conclusions about his glove this year, of course, but despite a few good plays and a good sense of where the wall is, he hasn't really blown me away on that front.
At any rate, we have now gone five consecutive games without scoring more than two runs, which just won't get the job done. (See our top 50 streaks of games scoring two or less runs here). And until that changes, there's not much any of us can do or say.
Labels: Ervin Santana, Gary Matthews Jr, hacktastic offense, Jered Weaver, offensive woes, Orlando Cabrera
Monday, November 13, 2006
Aramis Ramirez has re-signed with the Cubs, inking a five-year, $73M deal.
I'm somewhat okay with this; I don't think there's any chance Ramirez will really be worth nearly $15M per year over the next five years. Sure, he's a hell of a hitter, but he's a bad defender who will be spending more of his contract on the wrong side of 30 than the right side. (Incidentally, Aramis is the first player younger than me to debut in the major leagues.)
However, I would likely preferred to overpay for Aramis in dollars than overpay for someone like Tejada or A-Rod in players. And, per Mike DiGiovanna's write-up in the Times today, we might end up getting the worst of both worlds.
One scenario has the Angels either shelling out millions and millions of dollars for Japanese phenom Daisuke Matsuzaka or millions for Barry Zito, and then making one of the Ervin-Jered-Saunders troika the centerpiece of a trade for Tejada, A-Rod, or Vernon Wells. Such a move could provide a marginal improvement in the short term, but it would cost a lot more in money and would also mortgage our future for immediate gains. Both Ervin and Jered are likely to have more future remaining value than Zito, for instance, and while Joe Saunders doesn't quite have their upside, he's important insurance against an injury to a rotation starter.
Other pondered moves would include going after Alfonso Soriano, who will be 31 next season, is coming off of his best year ever and will likely be overpaid as a result, and hasn't ever played center field, or Gary Matthews Jr., who's even older and never had a good year until last season. I would guess his chances of repeating his 2006 performance are rather slim.
I still Vernon Wells is the best match of anyone we're talking about; sure, adding a guy like Tejada or A-Rod would be great for the offense, but it would cost us a lot in money and pitching depth. Wells is a lesser hitter, but an excellent defender, and the youngest position player discussed in this post. He would probably cost less than the other guys in terms of who we would have to give up, and provide us benefits on both sides of the ball, so to speak
Labels: Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Barry Zito, Ervin Santana, Gary Matthews Jr, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Miguel Tejada, Vernon Wells
