Tuesday, November 28, 2006
PMR, 2B
Pinto.
And the conversions; once again, he has two methods going on (as introduced for the right fielders) regarding distance and velocity. I don't know that this would make such a huge difference for infielders as for outfielders, and in fact the correlation between the two in this case is .9028.
I'm hesitant to do this, as zone rating and PMR measure different things for infielders, but I've done it for the other positions, so here's the comparison of the above to zone rating converted to runs:
Pinto.
And the conversions; once again, he has two methods going on (as introduced for the right fielders) regarding distance and velocity. I don't know that this would make such a huge difference for infielders as for outfielders, and in fact the correlation between the two in this case is .9028.
Original Method Alternative MethodLast year there was a huge issue with Orlando Hudson and balls in the air, and -- on the face of it -- that doesn't appear to be the case this year. However, it is worth noting that Hudson did not fare very well in 2006 by zone rating, and zone rating does not take into account infield pop-ups. Perhaps that accounts for some of the discrepancy.
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Total Per 460 Opp Total Per 460 Opp
Orlando Hudson 22.1308 19.4780 23.8424 21.0760
Tony Graffanino 18.8130 53.7349 15.7894 44.0029
Jamey Carroll 18.0666 22.3380 19.4540 24.1730
Jose Lopez 15.8799 16.1631 11.8684 11.9396
Mark Ellis 14.9675 18.6007 10.2171 12.4847
Aaron Hill 13.0749 17.6553 17.9308 24.6789
Chase Utley 11.9891 11.9865 18.5944 18.9512
Luis Castillo 11.1295 12.7594 9.5686 10.9136
Jose Valentin 10.5866 16.1274 11.0692 16.8984
Placido Polanco 10.4735 13.4159 7.2764 9.2119
Neifi Perez 10.2548 30.9528 4.1019 11.7519
Robinson Cano 9.1162 11.2452 9.0333 11.1396
Dan Uggla 8.8976 8.6494 1.6136 1.5372
Joe Inglett 8.4602 26.6957 4.0944 12.4260
Tadahito Iguchi 7.1482 7.8567 1.9982 2.1610
Josh Barfield 4.6071 4.8620 0.3544 0.3692
Jose Castillo 4.2226 5.0928 2.1113 2.5278
B. Phillips 3.3931 3.9070 5.1953 6.0180
Chris Burke 2.8427 10.5260 2.0359 7.4741
Marcus Giles -1.1084 -1.2332 -4.3055 -4.7414
M. Grudzielanek -2.7220 -3.3786 16.6867 22.2573
Aaron Miles -5.4366 -10.1987 -6.0398 -11.2934
Hector Luna -6.6053 -19.0188 -5.0068 -14.6099
Mark Loretta -6.7863 -7.6139 -10.6771 -11.8303
Ray Durham -6.8692 -7.8581 -6.3791 -7.3093
Brian Roberts -6.9145 -7.8116 0.8144 0.9438
Ian Kinsler -7.2613 -7.7029 -2.1113 -2.2755
Adam Kennedy -7.3518 -8.1343 -3.0010 -3.3672
Kaz Matsui -7.4800 -19.2309 -7.6082 -19.5419
Ty Wigginton -9.2746 -36.3709 -8.7618 -34.5605
Jeff Kent -10.5187 -14.2753 -7.9249 -10.8653
Rickie Weeks -11.4914 -18.9982 -9.2519 -15.4608
R. Belliard -12.3887 -12.2705 -18.3757 -17.8945
Craig Biggio -12.6149 -15.4032 -7.1105 -8.8537
Todd Walker -14.8695 -46.3035 -12.6602 -40.2215
Jose Vidro -17.2899 -24.2532 -16.9506 -23.8099
Jorge Cantu -21.8518 -32.2194 -18.3003 -27.3966
I'm hesitant to do this, as zone rating and PMR measure different things for infielders, but I've done it for the other positions, so here's the comparison of the above to zone rating converted to runs:
Player ZR-R PMR-1 Diff PMR-2 DiffOnce again, the revised PMR matches up better to ZR, but in this case, put a lot of salt on that, as we're not looking at the groundball-only PMR numbers, which correspond better (in theory) to ZR.
Aaron Miles 1 -5 6 -6 7
Aaron Hill 16 13 3 18 2
Adam Kennedy -6 -7 1 -3 3
Brandon Phillips 2 3 1 5 3
Brian Roberts 6 -7 13 1 5
Chase Utley 3 12 9 19 16
Craig Biggio 5 -13 18 -7 12
Dan Uggla -4 9 13 2 6
Ian Kinsler -3 -7 4 -2 1
Jamey Carroll 11 18 7 19 8
Jeff Kent -8 -11 3 -8 0
Jorge Cantu -22 -22 0 -18 4
Jose Lopez 2 16 14 12 10
Jose Castillo -18 4 22 2 20
Jose Valentin 12 11 1 11 1
Jose Vidro -5 -17 12 -17 12
Josh Barfield 1 5 4 0 1
Luis Castillo -2 11 13 10 12
Marcus Giles -9 -1 8 -4 5
Mark Ellis 7 15 8 10 3
Mark Grudzielanek 7 -3 10 17 10
Mark Loretta -6 -7 1 -11 5
Orlando Hudson -4 22 26 24 28
Placido Polanco 14 10 4 7 7
Ray Durham -2 -7 5 -6 4
Rickie Weeks -8 -11 3 -9 1
Robinson Cano 1 9 8 9 8
Ronnie Belliard -9 -12 3 -18 9
Tadahito Iguchi 1 7 6 2 1
Labels: David Pinto, fielding, probabilistic model of range
Monday, November 27, 2006
PMR, RIGHTFIELDERS
Pinto.
The conversions are as follows. David has presented an alternative method of dealing with flyballs, using distance instead of velocity, so I will also present that. Players are sorted by the original method.
This is also not merely an artifact of the disagreement on Brian Giles. The distance-based PMR method is closer to ZR on nearly every player on the list. Take Giles out of the equation, and the original PMR correlates at .454, and the improved at an impressive .704.
I know that there is something unique and odd about Petco's rightfield, but I don't know if PMR is correct to downgrade Giles so far vis-a-vis what zone rating says.
Pinto.
The conversions are as follows. David has presented an alternative method of dealing with flyballs, using distance instead of velocity, so I will also present that. Players are sorted by the original method.
Original Method Alternative MethodThere are some ... stark differences for some of these players, though the correlation between the two methods is .75. This leads me to believe that velocity and distance are fairly strongly correlated, but mistaking one for the other can lead to some big mistakes. Let's see how both methods compare to zone rating:
Player Runs Above Average Runs Above Average
Total Per 285 Opp Total Per 285 Opp
Reggie Sanders 16.3911 30.9922 4.8739 8.4560
Casey Blake 15.6340 23.2528 1.4971 2.0489
J.D. Drew 13.9413 14.8473 6.6347 6.8461
Alex Rios 10.8281 15.0340 6.0052 8.1136
J. Encarnacion 8.6676 11.8302 10.2412 14.1030
Carlos Quentin 8.6506 28.7245 6.8218 22.0984
Mark DeRosa 8.5060 21.0801 3.5045 8.2625
Jose Guillen 8.0722 14.8895 5.2057 9.3971
Vlad Guerrero 7.9616 9.3132 2.9005 3.3121
Damon Hollins 7.9616 18.2049 7.4768 17.0185
Kevin Mench 7.7149 21.3617 -6.2434 -14.9101
Jacque Jones 7.1876 7.6851 6.8984 7.3665
Austin Kearns 6.8984 5.8186 2.7815 2.3129
Ryan Freel 5.1546 15.4737 6.8984 21.1652
Jay Gibbons 4.5422 14.1232 -3.3939 -9.5778
Emil Brown 2.9686 7.9434 1.3525 3.5555
Moises Alou 2.6879 5.0786 5.2482 10.1180
Russell Branyan 0.7911 2.6194 -1.3950 -4.4852
Bobby Abreu 0.3402 0.3314 0.2127 0.2070
Trot Nixon 0.0425 0.0572 -1.9309 -2.5682
Joe Borchard -0.0510 -0.1730 1.7692 6.1552
Jay Payton -0.3573 -1.1386 5.4864 18.9414
Jeff Francoeur -0.7911 -0.7091 -1.3525 -1.2099
Brad Hawpe -0.9016 -0.9143 -1.1653 -1.1804
Ichiro Suzuki -1.0292 -1.1677 7.4938 8.8550
Randy Winn -1.4630 -2.2451 1.8203 2.8526
Jason Lane -1.4800 -2.6912 -2.2796 -4.1203
Shawn Green -1.9479 -2.4974 -5.8862 -7.3927
Milton Bradley -2.9005 -4.2521 0.7315 1.0965
Nick Markakis -3.6831 -4.2962 -0.5104 -0.6045
Jermaine Dye -4.7719 -4.3784 -0.2977 -0.2779
Bernie Williams -5.1121 -14.0078 -5.8181 -15.8161
Geoff Jenkins -5.9882 -6.7180 1.5141 1.7597
Jeromy Burnitz -7.3492 -16.2820 -14.7409 -30.5917
Jeremy Hermida -8.0297 -13.7494 -2.5943 -4.6197
Mike Cuddyer -12.0615 -13.2631 -5.8521 -6.6216
Xavier Nady -13.0057 -18.3233 -4.2190 -6.2638
M. Ordonez -19.7850 -20.0480 -9.1354 -9.6882
Brian Giles -29.3287 -25.1404 -17.4798 -15.6388
Player ZR-R PMR-1 Diff PMR-2 DiffThe original PMR correlates very poorly to ZR, only .165. The new, distance-based method correlates at .381. This does not surprise me, as distance, not velocity, is a parameter in the calculating of zone rating.
Alex Rios 11 11 0 6 5
Austin Kearns 5 7 2 3 2
Bernie Williams -7 -5 2 -6 1
Bobby Abreu -4 0 4 0 4
Brad Hawpe -9 -1 8 -1 8
Brian Giles 12 -29 41 -17 29
Casey Blake 4 16 12 1 3
Damon Hollins 3 8 5 7 4
Geoff Jenkins -2 -6 4 2 4
Ichiro Suzuki 7 -1 8 7 0
J.D. Drew 5 14 9 7 2
Jacque Jones 4 7 3 7 3
Jason Lane -8 -1 7 -2 6
Jeff Francoeur -1 -1 0 -1 0
Jeremy Hermida 4 -8 12 -3 7
Jermaine Dye -2 -5 3 0 2
Jeromy Burnitz -12 -7 5 -15 3
Juan Encarnacion 9 9 0 10 1
Kevin Mench -6 8 14 -6 0
Magglio Ordonez -2 -20 18 -9 7
Mark DeRosa 2 9 7 4 2
Michael Cuddyer -7 -12 5 -6 1
Milton Bradley 7 -3 10 1 6
Moises Alou -6 3 9 5 11
Nick Markakis -2 -4 2 -1 1
Randy Winn 2 -1 3 2 0
Reggie Sanders 6 16 10 5 1
Russell Branyan -5 1 6 -1 4
Trot Nixon 0 0 0 -2 2
Vladimir Guerrero -5 8 13 3 8
Xavier Nady 0 -13 13 -4 4
This is also not merely an artifact of the disagreement on Brian Giles. The distance-based PMR method is closer to ZR on nearly every player on the list. Take Giles out of the equation, and the original PMR correlates at .454, and the improved at an impressive .704.
I know that there is something unique and odd about Petco's rightfield, but I don't know if PMR is correct to downgrade Giles so far vis-a-vis what zone rating says.
Labels: David Pinto, fielding, probabilistic model of range
Wednesday, November 22, 2006
HAPPY THANKSGIVING
Just so it doesn't get buried by all the defense stuff, here's my reaction to the alleged Gary Matthews, Jr. signing.
Only in re-reading the article did I learn that we're apparently going to bat him leadoff, which is just a great idea, as he's only managed an above-average OBP in two of his seasons. Rock on.
Anyway, unless something huge happens over the weekend, I'm out, so have a great holiday, Halosphere. My gift to you in my absence is this Justin Speier interview with Mike DiGiovanna in the LA Times, in which he comes across as a thoughtful and cool guy.
Just so it doesn't get buried by all the defense stuff, here's my reaction to the alleged Gary Matthews, Jr. signing.
Only in re-reading the article did I learn that we're apparently going to bat him leadoff, which is just a great idea, as he's only managed an above-average OBP in two of his seasons. Rock on.
Anyway, unless something huge happens over the weekend, I'm out, so have a great holiday, Halosphere. My gift to you in my absence is this Justin Speier interview with Mike DiGiovanna in the LA Times, in which he comes across as a thoughtful and cool guy.
Labels: Gary Matthews Jr, Justin Speier
PMR, SHORTSTOPS
Pinto.
Conversions:
This won't mean a whole lot until we get groundball-only figures, but here are comparisons to zone rating:
Again, I'd hold off on making any real judgements, however, until we see groundball-only figures, assuming David presents them again.
Pinto.
Conversions:
Player Runs Above AverageI'm beginning to get a bit skeptical about not re-centering these numbers. Are they really based on the 2006 averages only? Of the 37 shortstops listed here, 22 come out as above average, and the entire group adds up to being 97 runs above average. That means all the other guys who played shortstop this year added up to -97 runs. I guess that's possible.
Total Per 475 Opp
Adam Everett 26.4815 27.0580
Bill Hall 21.3164 26.9483
Y. Betancourt 20.2231 20.2581
Craig Counsell 14.3417 23.4115
Clint Barmes 13.1126 16.1105
Jhonny Peralta 12.5546 11.5492
Khalil Greene 12.1173 17.1336
Jason Bartlett 10.5790 15.0464
Rafael Furcal 9.7421 8.8129
Julio Lugo 8.6035 16.9157
Omar Vizquel 8.0530 8.8892
Carlos Guillen 7.2010 7.5101
Juan Castro 6.0096 14.4880
Ben Zobrist 5.6175 16.1179
Jack Wilson 5.0746 5.3892
Juan Uribe 3.5590 3.9845
Alex Gonzalez 1.7946 2.4522
Bobby Crosby 1.6061 2.5023
John McDonald 1.2517 2.5264
David Eckstein 1.0330 1.2791
Orlando Cabrera 0.6937 0.7626
Edgar Renteria 0.4223 0.4503
Michael Young -0.3092 -0.2738
Jimmy Rollins -0.7917 -0.7521
Geoff Blum -1.3196 -4.1578
Alex Cora -1.3271 -3.8260
Ronny Cedeno -1.6966 -2.0134
Hanley Ramirez -3.2046 -3.2370
Royce Clayton -3.7777 -4.4305
Angel Berroa -6.2735 -7.0897
Jose Reyes -6.3188 -6.6494
Stephen Drew -7.1256 -19.8572
Marco Scutaro -8.6261 -18.7575
Miguel Tejada -9.2369 -9.1933
Aaron Hill -9.5837 -29.8099
Derek Jeter -10.8354 -11.0834
Felipe Lopez -23.9254 -24.1938
This won't mean a whole lot until we get groundball-only figures, but here are comparisons to zone rating:
Player PMR-R ZR-R DiffOutside a few guys, there is actually a lot of agreement here; the correlation is .495. A couple of the biggest disagreements, in particular Yuniesky Betancourt and Jhonny Peralta, are guys who have long been (or, at least as long as they've been around) seen differently by different defensive systems and subjective points of view.
Adam Everett 26 27 1
Alex Gonzalez 2 10 8
Angel Berroa -6 -11 5
Bill Hall 21 -1 22
Bobby Crosby 2 7 5
Carlos Guillen 7 2 5
Clint Barmes 13 4 9
Craig Counsell 14 4 10
David Eckstein 1 7 6
Derek Jeter -11 -5 6
Edgar Renteria 0 -6 6
Felipe Lopez -24 -17 7
Hanley Ramirez -3 -17 14
Jack Wilson 5 1 4
Jason Bartlett 11 10 1
Jhonny Peralta 13 -3 16
Jimmy Rollins -1 -6 5
John McDonald 1 1 0
Jose Reyes -6 10 16
Juan Uribe 4 14 10
Julio Lugo 9 1 8
Khalil Greene 12 5 7
Michael Young 0 4 4
Miguel Tejada -9 0 9
Omar Vizquel 8 11 3
Orlando Cabrera 1 -3 4
Rafael Furcal 10 -4 14
Ronny Cedeno -2 2 4
Royce Clayton -4 -5 1
Y. Betancourt 20 -7 27
Again, I'd hold off on making any real judgements, however, until we see groundball-only figures, assuming David presents them again.
Labels: David Pinto, fielding, probabilistic model of range
WE ARE IDIOTS, DEFINITELY
Per Ken Rosenthal, we have signed Gary Matthews, Jr., a 32-year-old center fielder coming off a career year, but who over his career has been a slightly below-average major league hitter, to a five-year deal worth $50M.
Matthews also came to the forefront with some highlight-level catches last year, but PMR said he was just below average and zone rating had him a bit worse, so perhaps his circus catches were on balls most other guys would have been standing around and waiting for.
Look, I guess it's possible a 31-year-old veteran finally learned how to hit, but does that sound likely to you? And does he sound like a good bet to sustain that ability through 2011? 2011! The year 2011! The year after 2010!!! THAT'S HOW LONG WE HAVE THIS GUY UNDER CONTRACT.
Good Lord, are we idiots.
Per Ken Rosenthal, we have signed Gary Matthews, Jr., a 32-year-old center fielder coming off a career year, but who over his career has been a slightly below-average major league hitter, to a five-year deal worth $50M.
Matthews also came to the forefront with some highlight-level catches last year, but PMR said he was just below average and zone rating had him a bit worse, so perhaps his circus catches were on balls most other guys would have been standing around and waiting for.
Look, I guess it's possible a 31-year-old veteran finally learned how to hit, but does that sound likely to you? And does he sound like a good bet to sustain that ability through 2011? 2011! The year 2011! The year after 2010!!! THAT'S HOW LONG WE HAVE THIS GUY UNDER CONTRACT.
Good Lord, are we idiots.
Labels: extreme reactions, Gary Matthews Jr, hysteria
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
PMR, FIRST BASEMEN
Pinto.
Me:
Here are the comparisons to ZR:
I would like to see the groundball-only figures for a better comparison.
Pinto.
Me:
Player Runs Above AverageOkay, so last year, David broke down infielders by groundballs only and by all balls in play. This is by all balls in play, and I am forced to guess that Albert Pujols was a "ball hog" on popups, because there is absolutely no way this guy saved 31 runs by his fielding. That's insane.
Total Per 275 Opp
Albert Pujols 30.7808 31.6521
Lyle Overbay 12.9045 12.2021
Kendry Morales 10.7497 26.7455
Nick Johnson 10.5662 9.5032
Dan Johnson 10.3587 18.9884
Lance Niekro 10.3188 33.3568
Kevin Youkilis 9.2893 11.5403
Adrian Gonzalez 8.3955 7.8136
Chris Shelton 7.4857 12.1364
Ben Broussard 6.3764 12.5242
Scott Hatteberg 5.6342 7.2763
Mark Sweeney 5.3310 15.8797
John Mabry 4.7165 14.7239
D. Mientkiewicz 4.7005 8.4426
Andy Phillips 4.6766 12.4690
Justin Morneau 4.6207 4.8833
Mark Teixeira 3.8865 3.5027
Derrek Lee 3.8865 13.3382
S. Hillenbrand 3.6391 7.3348
N. Garciaparra 3.3039 4.7855
Lance Berkman 2.9927 4.2368
Jeff Conine 1.7717 5.4878
Howie Kendrick 1.6200 6.2775
Nick Swisher 1.3407 2.4366
Travis Lee 1.1013 1.3981
Rich Aurilia 0.9417 3.7630
Ryan Shealy 0.8459 2.9101
Prince Fielder -0.1836 -0.1875
Mike Lamb -0.2634 -0.7365
Kevin Millar -0.7182 -1.2430
Ryan Garko -2.4660 -8.5743
Wes Helms -2.7613 -9.2086
Ty Wigginton -3.1204 -12.2744
Craig Wilson -3.7030 -10.4292
Adam LaRoche -3.9424 -4.0614
Robb Quinlan -4.0940 -15.6086
Paul Konerko -4.1339 -5.1631
Richie Sexson -5.0437 -4.6650
Carlos Delgado -5.1394 -5.4477
Todd Helton -7.6453 -7.5201
Jason Giambi -13.8861 -43.1976
Mike Jacobs -16.9506 -21.9629
Sean Casey -19.0096 -27.2528
Conor Jackson -19.1133 -20.6164
Ryan Howard -21.6750 -19.7268
Here are the comparisons to ZR:
Player PMR-R ZR-R DiffZone rating doesn't account for popups, so we should expect some disagreement here; the correlation is .335, closer to what we found for center field than for left field.
Adam LaRoche -4 2 6
Adrian Gonzalez 8 5 3
Albert Pujols 31 0 31
Andy Phillips 5 3 2
Ben Broussard 6 -2 8
Carlos Delgado -5 3 8
Chris Shelton 7 12 5
Conor Jackson -19 0 19
Dan Johnson 10 1 9
Doug Mientkiewicz 5 7 2
Jason Giambi -14 -8 6
Justin Morneau 5 4 1
Kevin Youkilis 9 -1 10
Kevin Millar -1 -3 2
Lance Berkman 3 -4 7
Lyle Overbay 13 0 13
Mark Teixeira 4 2 2
Mike Jacobs -17 -1 16
Nick Johnson 11 -1 12
Nick Swisher 1 -2 3
Nomar Garciaparra 3 3 0
Paul Konerko -4 -8 4
Prince Fielder 0 -9 9
Richie Sexson -5 -6 1
Ryan Howard -22 -3 19
Scott Hatteberg 6 9 3
Todd Helton -8 -2 6
Travis Lee 1 3 2
I would like to see the groundball-only figures for a better comparison.
Labels: David Pinto, fielding, probabilistic model of range
PMR, CENTERFIELDERS
Here is David Pinto's post, and below are my figures. You can read more about this year's incarnation of the run conversions here.
Here's the comparison to zone rating:
The correlation between PMR and ZR for these players is .327.
Here is David Pinto's post, and below are my figures. You can read more about this year's incarnation of the run conversions here.
Player Runs Above AverageThere are a lot of surprises here, not the least of which is that Alfredo Amezaga played center field last year. The rating of Grady Sizemore is also a shocker.
Total Per 367 Opp
Carlos Beltran 13.1884 14.2879
Corey Patterson 11.3302 12.6262
Joey Gathright 10.9253 12.3035
Coco Crisp 9.8407 15.5409
Aaron Rowand 8.9369 13.7439
Johnny Damon 8.6043 10.7371
Shane Victorino 7.1004 17.2366
Willy Taveras 6.9630 7.8539
Rocco Baldelli 5.9290 9.8997
Alfredo Amezaga 5.8206 14.5365
Brady Clark 5.8206 8.8289
Ichiro Suzuki 5.7555 19.9195
Jim Edmonds 5.5313 9.4265
Ryan Freel 5.2855 16.2067
Mike Cameron 4.6998 4.7846
Randy Winn 3.2899 9.1158
Brian Anderson 3.1959 3.9021
Juan Pierre 2.9790 2.9086
R. Abercrombie 2.8633 6.2534
C. Granderson 2.6391 2.5398
Steve Finley 2.4005 3.1056
Vernon Wells 1.4461 1.6082
Andruw Jones 1.3087 1.2802
Eric Byrnes 1.1496 1.5719
Choo Freeman 0.1374 0.5001
Chris Duffy 0.0940 0.2080
So Taguchi 0.0217 0.0885
Marlon Byrd -0.0506 -0.1485
Chone Figgins -1.2581 -1.8943
G. Matthews Jr. -1.3738 -1.5055
Nate McLouth -1.6196 -6.8925
David DeJesus -2.9211 -7.0050
Torii Hunter -3.0657 -3.2402
Ryan Church -4.6854 -13.3836
Jay Payton -5.7121 -18.7340
Jose Bautista -5.8495 -17.5834
Rob Mackowiak -6.0736 -17.4962
Cory Sullivan -8.3006 -12.8820
Mark Kotsay -9.7684 -12.1728
Jeremy Reed -12.5449 -31.4587
Kenny Lofton -13.0511 -18.4896
Grady Sizemore -16.0011 -13.6210
K. Griffey Jr. -20.0140 -28.6160
Here's the comparison to zone rating:
Player PMR-R ZR-R DiffSome guys are right in line, but there are a few doozies, like the aforementioned Sizemore and Coco Crisp. I suspect PMR might handle Fenway better than ZR, but I don't really know, and don't have an explanation for the other differences. This is here to spur the conversation.
Aaron Rowand 9 -3 12
Andruw Jones 1 -9 10
Brady Clark 6 -3 9
Brian Anderson 3 3 0
Carlos Beltran 13 9 4
Chone Figgins -1 3 4
Chris Duffy 0 6 6
Coco Crisp 10 -8 18
Corey Patterson 11 16 5
Cory Sullivan -8 -1 7
C. Granderson 3 5 2
Eric Byrnes 1 8 7
G. Matthews Jr. -1 -8 7
Grady Sizemore -16 7 23
Jim Edmonds 6 6 0
Joey Gathright 11 -2 13
Johnny Damon 9 4 5
Juan Pierre 3 16 13
Ken Griffey Jr. -20 -11 9
Kenny Lofton -13 -2 11
Mark Kotsay -10 -5 5
Mike Cameron 5 8 3
Rocco Baldelli 6 0 6
Steve Finley 2 3 1
Torii Hunter -3 0 3
Vernon Wells 1 12 11
Willy Taveras 7 5 2
The correlation between PMR and ZR for these players is .327.
Labels: David Pinto, fielding, probabilistic model of range
PMR, LEFTFIELDERS
David Pinto has begun posting his probabilistic model of range defensive numbers. As in years past, here is my attempt to convert those figures, which are presented in outs above and below average, to runs. My method of doing this, cribbed from Chris Dial, is explained here, and data from past years can be found along the sidebar.
I've got some technical things to say on this, but I'll toss those down at the end.
David has begun with leftfielders, so here we go. Every player is presented with an actual total in addition to a rate total (based on a typical number of opportunities for each position, which should be roughly equivalent to around 150 games).
The correlation between the two lists is .519, if that has meaning for you.
I don't know eough about the players for whom there is a big difference to really speak to why that might be, but there's the data.
***
TECHNICAL NOTE: There is one difference between my conversions this year and in past years. What PMR does is, for every batted ball in the world, gauge the probability of any one fielder making that play. So, for a ball hit to X place, the shortstop might make an out 75% of the time. If any shortstop has 100 balls hit there, he's expected to make 75 outs. If our guy makes 85, he's +10 plays (which I then convert into runs), if he's 65, he's -10. I call the 75 outs "predicted outs" here.
Now, that hypothetical 75% figure was, in years past, a multi-year average. As a result, if you look at any given year at a position, you find some weird things. The shortstops in 2004 (for whom Pinto provided data), for instance, averaged around -16 runs against predicted in a full season. When doing these conversions, I recentered it so that the -16 would be average.
I didn't have to do that this year. David, because of his data (read about it here) is using 2006 data only to derive these numbers, which makes my job a lot easier.
If you add up all the leftfielders here, you'll see that they came out to around +13 runs above average. That means that all the other leftfielders in baseball added up to -13. Before, I used to have to guess and just kind of assume the population we had for PMR represented the population at large. That may have been a bad assumption, but at least now we don't have to guess.
As for another technical note, last year David had an "original model" and a "smoothed visitor" model that dealt with parks slightly differently. I don't know which model he's currently employing.
David Pinto has begun posting his probabilistic model of range defensive numbers. As in years past, here is my attempt to convert those figures, which are presented in outs above and below average, to runs. My method of doing this, cribbed from Chris Dial, is explained here, and data from past years can be found along the sidebar.
I've got some technical things to say on this, but I'll toss those down at the end.
David has begun with leftfielders, so here we go. Every player is presented with an actual total in addition to a rate total (based on a typical number of opportunities for each position, which should be roughly equivalent to around 150 games).
Player Runs Above AverageThanks to Chris Dial, who has done work on converting zone rating to runs, we can see how some players came out in PMR vis-a-vis zone rating. This is alphabetical by first name, and I've rounded off the PMR Runs to integers for convenience of comparison:
Total Per 270 Opp
Melky Cabrera 14.9236 20.2431
Matt Diaz 10.7749 19.3897
Reed Johnson 10.4507 24.2351
Dave Roberts 10.3676 12.3570
Matt Murton 8.4553 9.9332
Brandon Fahey 7.9482 23.4690
Emil Brown 6.7177 11.7079
Ryan Langerhans 6.0609 11.0043
Alfonso Soriano 5.8780 4.9762
Andre Ethier 5.3542 8.7318
Jason Bay 5.0965 4.4407
So Taguchi 4.7972 15.9453
Jason Michaels 4.4812 5.8000
F. Catalanotto 4.0073 8.0040
Cliff Floyd 3.5085 6.5885
David DeJesus 3.3090 6.6663
Juan Rivera 2.9099 6.4137
Garret Anderson 1.5464 2.1959
Marcus Thames 0.8896 3.4846
Barry Bonds 0.7898 1.1401
Kevin Mench 0.7566 2.5828
Jay Payton 0.3824 0.8711
Luke Scott -0.1580 -0.5253
Jeff Conine -0.3492 -1.0663
Brad Wilkerson -0.4074 -0.7885
Luis Gonzalez -1.1640 -1.2209
Carl Crawford -1.7792 -1.5795
Nick Swisher -2.3362 -3.6502
Josh Willingham -2.6106 -3.3703
Preston Wilson -3.6582 -6.1578
Craig Monroe -3.6997 -5.7926
Chris Duncan -4.6808 -17.6436
Matt Holliday -7.0669 -6.6832
Adam Dunn -7.1002 -6.6670
Bobby Kielty -7.1750 -21.8577
Pat Burrell -7.8152 -9.8419
Scott Podsednik -8.8128 -9.3093
Raul Ibanez -11.3403 -9.7005
Carlos Lee -13.8844 -15.3828
Manny Ramirez -22.4145 -29.9660
Player PMR-R ZR-R DiffThough both systems see many players similarly, there are some pretty big discrapencies, as well. PMR takes park into account, where ZR does not, so that may be one source of difference. Of course, they also are derived from different data sources and tracking systems, PMR from Baseball Info Solutions and ZR from STATS, LLC.
Adam Dunn -7 -12 5
Alfonso Soriano 6 5 1
Andre Ethier 5 2 3
Barry Bonds 1 0 1
Brad Wilkerson 0 -5 5
Carl Crawford -2 8 10
Carlos Lee -14 -3 11
Cliff Floyd 4 1 3
Craig Monroe -4 1 5
Dave Roberts 10 14 4
Emil Brown 7 9 2
F. Catalanotto 4 -2 6
Garret Anderson 2 -1 3
Jason Bay 5 -6 11
Jason Michaels 4 3 1
Josh Willingham -3 -15 12
Luis Gonzalez -1 2 3
Manny Ramirez -22 -32 10
Matt Diaz 11 6 5
Matt Murton 8 6 2
Matt Holliday -7 3 10
Melky Cabrera 15 -6 21
Nick Swisher -2 4 6
Pat Burrell -8 0 8
Preston Wilson -4 -20 16
Raul Ibanez -11 4 15
Reed Johnson 10 5 5
Ryan Langerhans 6 11 5
Scott Podsednik -9 7 16
The correlation between the two lists is .519, if that has meaning for you.
I don't know eough about the players for whom there is a big difference to really speak to why that might be, but there's the data.
***
TECHNICAL NOTE: There is one difference between my conversions this year and in past years. What PMR does is, for every batted ball in the world, gauge the probability of any one fielder making that play. So, for a ball hit to X place, the shortstop might make an out 75% of the time. If any shortstop has 100 balls hit there, he's expected to make 75 outs. If our guy makes 85, he's +10 plays (which I then convert into runs), if he's 65, he's -10. I call the 75 outs "predicted outs" here.
Now, that hypothetical 75% figure was, in years past, a multi-year average. As a result, if you look at any given year at a position, you find some weird things. The shortstops in 2004 (for whom Pinto provided data), for instance, averaged around -16 runs against predicted in a full season. When doing these conversions, I recentered it so that the -16 would be average.
I didn't have to do that this year. David, because of his data (read about it here) is using 2006 data only to derive these numbers, which makes my job a lot easier.
If you add up all the leftfielders here, you'll see that they came out to around +13 runs above average. That means that all the other leftfielders in baseball added up to -13. Before, I used to have to guess and just kind of assume the population we had for PMR represented the population at large. That may have been a bad assumption, but at least now we don't have to guess.
As for another technical note, last year David had an "original model" and a "smoothed visitor" model that dealt with parks slightly differently. I don't know which model he's currently employing.
Labels: David Pinto, fielding, probabilistic model of range
Monday, November 20, 2006
KEVIN GREGG TRADED
Kevin Gregg has been traded to the Florida Marlins for a reliever named Chris Resop.
Resop is 24, and is a converted outfielder. You can viddy his minor league stats here. Nothing exceptional; he had an awful strikeout-to-walk ratio in 22 major league innings last year (he put up a good ERA anyway, not that that's a huge sample size indicative of anything), but his track record doesn't really make it seem like that's usual.
He'll probably join Jason Bulger in the mix for a back-of-the-bullpen spot. Hopefully Mike Butcher will be able to get something out of him, because Kevin Gregg, for all his faults, can help you as a mop-up guy and spot starter, as you well know, so he has some value and hopefully we got something for 'im.
Kevin Gregg has been traded to the Florida Marlins for a reliever named Chris Resop.
Resop is 24, and is a converted outfielder. You can viddy his minor league stats here. Nothing exceptional; he had an awful strikeout-to-walk ratio in 22 major league innings last year (he put up a good ERA anyway, not that that's a huge sample size indicative of anything), but his track record doesn't really make it seem like that's usual.
He'll probably join Jason Bulger in the mix for a back-of-the-bullpen spot. Hopefully Mike Butcher will be able to get something out of him, because Kevin Gregg, for all his faults, can help you as a mop-up guy and spot starter, as you well know, so he has some value and hopefully we got something for 'im.
Sunday, November 19, 2006
SPEIER. BUTCHER.
Fox Sports is reporting that we have signed former Toronto reliever Justin Speier to a four-year deal worth $18 million.
Speier has been a good reliever, putting up ERA+ marks of 124, 173, and 158 the last three years, with good strikeout-to-walk ratios. He has been a bit homer-happy, but has been reasonably effective overall. He'll fit into the seventh inning mix, and though he's certainly a step or two below Scot Shields, we desperately need someone who can help take the pressure (and exorbitant innings) from Shields' arm.
So while I like the acquisition, I don't know if I like the signing. Four years? The guy's about to turn 33, and I don't really envision him being a huge part of our bullpen in the year 2010. We saw Brendan Donnelly fall of the cliff from excellence to decency at age 34, and his immediately recent track record was better than Speier's.
Overseeing Speier's attempt to continue his productivity will be new pitching coach Mike Butcher, who was a our minor league pitching instructor for many years before following Joe Maddon to Tampa Bay. I consider this a pleasant surprise; I'd have thought Butcher would have stayed with Joe, and wasn't really a possibility for us. He knows our guys and our staff, so this is as good a match as I would have imagined.
Fox Sports is reporting that we have signed former Toronto reliever Justin Speier to a four-year deal worth $18 million.
Speier has been a good reliever, putting up ERA+ marks of 124, 173, and 158 the last three years, with good strikeout-to-walk ratios. He has been a bit homer-happy, but has been reasonably effective overall. He'll fit into the seventh inning mix, and though he's certainly a step or two below Scot Shields, we desperately need someone who can help take the pressure (and exorbitant innings) from Shields' arm.
So while I like the acquisition, I don't know if I like the signing. Four years? The guy's about to turn 33, and I don't really envision him being a huge part of our bullpen in the year 2010. We saw Brendan Donnelly fall of the cliff from excellence to decency at age 34, and his immediately recent track record was better than Speier's.
Overseeing Speier's attempt to continue his productivity will be new pitching coach Mike Butcher, who was a our minor league pitching instructor for many years before following Joe Maddon to Tampa Bay. I consider this a pleasant surprise; I'd have thought Butcher would have stayed with Joe, and wasn't really a possibility for us. He knows our guys and our staff, so this is as good a match as I would have imagined.
Labels: Brendan Donnelly, Justin Speier, Mike Butcher, pitching coach
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
WE ARE IDIOTS, POSSIBLY
It is alleged that the Angels have offered Alfonso Soriano a six-year deal worth $80M.
Mike DiGiovanna, in the above-linked report, also says:
Soriano, for all his physical gifts, is a poor defensive second baseman; there is every reason to believe that Kendrick could make a good defensive first baseman with enough time, but why waste his talents there? He's already shown good athleticism at the keystone, and his bat will be much more valuable in the middle of the infield than on a corner. And such a move -- wrapping up Soriano for six years -- also negates the existence of Casey Kotchman and Kendry Morales, most likely putting Kotchman on the trading block (when his value, coming off his debilitating sickness, will be at its lowest) and consigning Morales, who showed some good leather around the bag last year, to DH work if he sticks around.
Not to mention that this plan doesn't address center field or third base. The only real way pursuing Soriano makes sense is if he is envisioned as either a center or left fielder. He took fairly well to left field last year, and with his speed and arm might even hold his own in center. If not, he can always play the corner, with Garret being the primary DH and Reggie Willits being the late-inning defensive caddy for Juan Rivera in center.
That's not the best-sounding defense in the world, but at least there's some pop in the bats, and Reggie Willits to salve some wounds.
I also wonder if Soriano would really go for a six-year deal in lieu of a five-year that is worth more dollars per year. I'm not convinced he's actually worth the ~$13M we may have offered, but I think perceptions of his ability are such that he can pull down more than Aramis Ramirez's $15M per.
I'm beginning to worry a bit about what this team has up its sleeve. After thankfully losing out on the ill-advised pursuit of Paul Konerko last winter, it almost seems like Bill Stoneman wants to do something for the sake of saying he did. But tossing money at old players who would block our cheaper (and soon to be better) players ... that ain't any kind of plan. So hopefully it isn't ours.
It is alleged that the Angels have offered Alfonso Soriano a six-year deal worth $80M.
Mike DiGiovanna, in the above-linked report, also says:
Though the Angels appear set at Soriano's two primary positions, left field (Garret Anderson) and second base (Howie Kendrick), they could move Kendrick to first base, Anderson to designated hitter or open up center field for Soriano.Seitz is all over the, shall we say, suboptimal nature of this, but on parsing the language it sounds much more like speculation than an actual plan.
Soriano, for all his physical gifts, is a poor defensive second baseman; there is every reason to believe that Kendrick could make a good defensive first baseman with enough time, but why waste his talents there? He's already shown good athleticism at the keystone, and his bat will be much more valuable in the middle of the infield than on a corner. And such a move -- wrapping up Soriano for six years -- also negates the existence of Casey Kotchman and Kendry Morales, most likely putting Kotchman on the trading block (when his value, coming off his debilitating sickness, will be at its lowest) and consigning Morales, who showed some good leather around the bag last year, to DH work if he sticks around.
Not to mention that this plan doesn't address center field or third base. The only real way pursuing Soriano makes sense is if he is envisioned as either a center or left fielder. He took fairly well to left field last year, and with his speed and arm might even hold his own in center. If not, he can always play the corner, with Garret being the primary DH and Reggie Willits being the late-inning defensive caddy for Juan Rivera in center.
That's not the best-sounding defense in the world, but at least there's some pop in the bats, and Reggie Willits to salve some wounds.
I also wonder if Soriano would really go for a six-year deal in lieu of a five-year that is worth more dollars per year. I'm not convinced he's actually worth the ~$13M we may have offered, but I think perceptions of his ability are such that he can pull down more than Aramis Ramirez's $15M per.
I'm beginning to worry a bit about what this team has up its sleeve. After thankfully losing out on the ill-advised pursuit of Paul Konerko last winter, it almost seems like Bill Stoneman wants to do something for the sake of saying he did. But tossing money at old players who would block our cheaper (and soon to be better) players ... that ain't any kind of plan. So hopefully it isn't ours.
Labels: Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Bill Stoneman, Casey Kotchman, hysteria, Kendry Morales, Paul Konerko, Reggie Willits
Monday, November 13, 2006
WE WILL NOT HAVE MATSUZAKA
The Red Sox have won the right to negotiate with Japanese star pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka.
So, if the Angels really want to sign a free agent pitcher and trade a youngster, that pretty much narrows us down to Barry Zito or Jason Schmidt on the marquee name list.
Given the exorbitant costs involved with Matsuzaka -- paying roughly $36M or whatever just to negotiate what will likely be a multi-year deal worth $10-$15M per year -- this is a happy result.
The Yankees losing out on Daisuke may also make them more eager to trade for pitching, which will keep in motion rumors regarding Alex Rodriguez.
The Red Sox have won the right to negotiate with Japanese star pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka.
So, if the Angels really want to sign a free agent pitcher and trade a youngster, that pretty much narrows us down to Barry Zito or Jason Schmidt on the marquee name list.
Given the exorbitant costs involved with Matsuzaka -- paying roughly $36M or whatever just to negotiate what will likely be a multi-year deal worth $10-$15M per year -- this is a happy result.
The Yankees losing out on Daisuke may also make them more eager to trade for pitching, which will keep in motion rumors regarding Alex Rodriguez.
Labels: Alex Rodriguez, Barry Zito, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jason Schmidt
YES, WE HAVE NO ARAMIS
Aramis Ramirez has re-signed with the Cubs, inking a five-year, $73M deal.
I'm somewhat okay with this; I don't think there's any chance Ramirez will really be worth nearly $15M per year over the next five years. Sure, he's a hell of a hitter, but he's a bad defender who will be spending more of his contract on the wrong side of 30 than the right side. (Incidentally, Aramis is the first player younger than me to debut in the major leagues.)
However, I would likely preferred to overpay for Aramis in dollars than overpay for someone like Tejada or A-Rod in players. And, per Mike DiGiovanna's write-up in the Times today, we might end up getting the worst of both worlds.
One scenario has the Angels either shelling out millions and millions of dollars for Japanese phenom Daisuke Matsuzaka or millions for Barry Zito, and then making one of the Ervin-Jered-Saunders troika the centerpiece of a trade for Tejada, A-Rod, or Vernon Wells. Such a move could provide a marginal improvement in the short term, but it would cost a lot more in money and would also mortgage our future for immediate gains. Both Ervin and Jered are likely to have more future remaining value than Zito, for instance, and while Joe Saunders doesn't quite have their upside, he's important insurance against an injury to a rotation starter.
Other pondered moves would include going after Alfonso Soriano, who will be 31 next season, is coming off of his best year ever and will likely be overpaid as a result, and hasn't ever played center field, or Gary Matthews Jr., who's even older and never had a good year until last season. I would guess his chances of repeating his 2006 performance are rather slim.
I still Vernon Wells is the best match of anyone we're talking about; sure, adding a guy like Tejada or A-Rod would be great for the offense, but it would cost us a lot in money and pitching depth. Wells is a lesser hitter, but an excellent defender, and the youngest position player discussed in this post. He would probably cost less than the other guys in terms of who we would have to give up, and provide us benefits on both sides of the ball, so to speak
Aramis Ramirez has re-signed with the Cubs, inking a five-year, $73M deal.
I'm somewhat okay with this; I don't think there's any chance Ramirez will really be worth nearly $15M per year over the next five years. Sure, he's a hell of a hitter, but he's a bad defender who will be spending more of his contract on the wrong side of 30 than the right side. (Incidentally, Aramis is the first player younger than me to debut in the major leagues.)
However, I would likely preferred to overpay for Aramis in dollars than overpay for someone like Tejada or A-Rod in players. And, per Mike DiGiovanna's write-up in the Times today, we might end up getting the worst of both worlds.
One scenario has the Angels either shelling out millions and millions of dollars for Japanese phenom Daisuke Matsuzaka or millions for Barry Zito, and then making one of the Ervin-Jered-Saunders troika the centerpiece of a trade for Tejada, A-Rod, or Vernon Wells. Such a move could provide a marginal improvement in the short term, but it would cost a lot more in money and would also mortgage our future for immediate gains. Both Ervin and Jered are likely to have more future remaining value than Zito, for instance, and while Joe Saunders doesn't quite have their upside, he's important insurance against an injury to a rotation starter.
Other pondered moves would include going after Alfonso Soriano, who will be 31 next season, is coming off of his best year ever and will likely be overpaid as a result, and hasn't ever played center field, or Gary Matthews Jr., who's even older and never had a good year until last season. I would guess his chances of repeating his 2006 performance are rather slim.
I still Vernon Wells is the best match of anyone we're talking about; sure, adding a guy like Tejada or A-Rod would be great for the offense, but it would cost us a lot in money and pitching depth. Wells is a lesser hitter, but an excellent defender, and the youngest position player discussed in this post. He would probably cost less than the other guys in terms of who we would have to give up, and provide us benefits on both sides of the ball, so to speak
Labels: Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Barry Zito, Ervin Santana, Gary Matthews Jr, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Miguel Tejada, Vernon Wells
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
BUD BLACK: GONE
Yeah, I'm back, but Bud Black is gone, off to manage the San Diego Padres.
I don't know what to make of this; the Angel ERA, with Buddy here, has ranked ninth (2000), fifth (2001), second (you get the idea), sixth, fourth, third, and third in the league. That's a pretty impressive track record, considering the team never ranked better than fifth in the 1995-1999 period, falling all the way to thirteenth in 1996. In fact, the second-place finish in 2002 was the best showing the Angel staff had since the 1991 team (also second), which at 81-81 and with a rotation spearheaded by Chuck Finley, Mark Langston, and Jim Abbott was probably the best last-place team ever, and possibly the best pitching staff a last-place team has had.
I honestly don't know how much difference a good pitching coach makes, but we can't really fault Bud Black for his service to our team. Losing coaches like Joe Maddon and Bud Black to managerial jobs is a price of success; as with Joe, I wish Buddy the best, and hope we can find a suitable replacement.
Yeah, I'm back, but Bud Black is gone, off to manage the San Diego Padres.
I don't know what to make of this; the Angel ERA, with Buddy here, has ranked ninth (2000), fifth (2001), second (you get the idea), sixth, fourth, third, and third in the league. That's a pretty impressive track record, considering the team never ranked better than fifth in the 1995-1999 period, falling all the way to thirteenth in 1996. In fact, the second-place finish in 2002 was the best showing the Angel staff had since the 1991 team (also second), which at 81-81 and with a rotation spearheaded by Chuck Finley, Mark Langston, and Jim Abbott was probably the best last-place team ever, and possibly the best pitching staff a last-place team has had.
I honestly don't know how much difference a good pitching coach makes, but we can't really fault Bud Black for his service to our team. Losing coaches like Joe Maddon and Bud Black to managerial jobs is a price of success; as with Joe, I wish Buddy the best, and hope we can find a suitable replacement.
Labels: Bud Black, Joe Maddon, pitching coach
